Trump Was Told Attack on Iran Wouldn’t Guarantee Collapse of Regime

Summary

WSJ What’s News – PM Edition

Episode Title: Trump Was Told Attack on Iran Wouldn’t Guarantee Collapse of Regime
Date: January 15, 2026
Host: Alex Osola (The Wall Street Journal)
Key Guests: Alex Ward (National Security Reporter), Ken Thomas (National Political Reporter), Ryan December (Commodities Reporter)

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Episode Overview

This episode covers several of the day's top stories, centering on President Trump’s deliberations regarding a potential military strike against Iran following a government crackdown on protests. The show also touches on Trump’s threat to invoke the Insurrection Act in Minnesota, new innovations in U.S. copper mining, key business and market updates, and the ongoing basketball game rigging scandal.

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Main Theme: U.S.-Iran Tensions and Policy Decisions

• Trump Administration Weighs Options in Iran
  • President Trump has been considering a military strike on Iran after the government’s intense crackdown on demonstrators.
  • Both U.S. and Middle Eastern officials advise the White House that a large-scale strike likely won’t result in a regime collapse and could risk regional escalation.

Notable Insight

• Alex Ward [01:34]:
  “Countries in the region are concerned about this moving forward because they don’t want to see a lot of volatility in their region. Trump seems to be signaling that as long as the crackdown on protesters doesn’t go forward, he’s good.”

• White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt confirmed that military action remains an option, with a warning to Iran that continued violence would have “grave consequences” [02:29].

  • Quote: “Only President Trump knows what he’s going to do.” — Caroline Levitt [02:36].

• The administration is reportedly considering moving the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier from the South China Sea to the Middle East as a show of force [02:36].

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Segment Breakdown & Detailed Insights

1. U.S.-Iran Showdown: Risks and Calculations

• Iran’s crackdown has stifled demonstrations but activists say the apparent calm is likely short-lived [02:55].
• U.S. Seizure of Oil Tankers: Sixth vessel seized as part of Trump’s campaign against Iran’s “dark fleet” of sanctioned oil shipments [03:20].

Memorable Context

• Historical Context on Trump’s Approach
  • Reference to last June, when Trump initially opened to diplomacy with Iran before launching a strike regardless.
  • Speculation that Trump may be stalling:

    “It’s possible that Trump is stalling for time because there are certain amounts of military assets that he would like to see in the region... that could, if he were to order it, lead to a much broader scale attack on Iran and help the U.S. protect not only troops in the region, but also allies like Israel.” — Alex Ward [01:49]

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2. Trump’s Insurrection Act Threat in Minnesota [03:37]

• Trump threatens to use the Insurrection Act in response to unrest in Minnesota if local officials don’t quell protests against ICE.

  • Historical Rare Use:
    • Last invoked in 1992 during LA riots; before that, during the 1960s civil rights unrest.
    • “It’s a law from 1807 that allows the president to use the military for civilian law enforcement purposes on US soil under a narrow set of circumstances.” — Ken Thomas [03:41]
  • Legal experts anticipate serious legal challenges if invoked, citing that “legal opponents would make the case that this is constituting an abuse of power or a bad faith effort to try to suppress dissent for political reasons, not to try to enforce federal law...” — Ken Thomas [04:44]

• Governor Tim Walz makes a public appeal to de-escalate tensions, urging peaceful protest [05:13].

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3. White House Unveils Health Care Framework [05:20]

• New plan, the “Great Health Care Plan”, aims to formalize Trump’s executive actions—like lowering prescription drug prices—but faces uncertain prospects in Congress.

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4. Market and Business News [05:42–06:51]

• Robust earnings from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and TSMC buoy markets; BlackRock assets reach $14 trillion.
• Dow Jones finishes up 0.6%.

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5. Arizona Copper Mine and the Data Center Boom [06:51]

Guest: Ryan December

• Amazon contracts with a new Arizona copper mine—the first major customer for this decade’s only new source of U.S. copper—driven by demand from AI data centers.

Copper Market Drivers [07:15]:

• Electrification (EVs, appliances in developing world), grid upgrades, and surging data center construction (AI boom) are fueling a “tremendous appetite for copper.”
  • “These data centers are basically giant buildings filled with copper. Every wire, circuit board, component has copper in it to move the electrons around.” — Ryan December [07:35]

Impact of U.S. Trade Policy [08:01]:

• Trump has imposed a 50% import tax on copper products, increasing costs and pressuring domestic production.

New Mining Technology [08:36]:

• Rio Tinto is piloting a process using bacteria in acid to extract copper—making high-grade copper cathodes directly usable by industry.
  • “If Rio’s successful, it’s the sort of technology that they can take to a lot of other mines… to make copper out of stuff that was essentially wasted.” — Ryan December [09:06]

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6. Quick News Headlines [09:36–11:04]

• Vail Resorts sees 20% drop in skier visits due to scant western snowfall, but strong east coast numbers partly offset losses.
• Verizon outage attributed to a software update; $20 credit offered to affected customers.
• Spotify announces US premium subscription price hike to $12.99/month.

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7. Expanding Basketball Game Rigging Scandal [11:04]

• Federal charges now allege match manipulation involving 39 players across 17 Division 1 college teams in 2024-25, plus expansion to games in China.
  • Tied to investigation that already led to NBA coach and player indictments.
  • “One of the most sprawling gambling cases in the history of American sports.” — Alex Osola [11:15]

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Noteworthy Quotes by Segment (with Timestamps)

• “There’s also a chance that this is a delay tactic. And there’s also a chance that he’s good now, but if Iran continues his crackdown, he’s not good later.”
  — Alex Ward [00:21]

• White House stance: “Only President Trump knows what he’s going to do.”
  — Caroline Levitt [02:36]

• On copper’s importance for AI: “These data centers are basically giant buildings filled with copper. Every wire, circuit board, component has copper in it.”
  — Ryan December [07:36]

• On Insurrection Act: “I think you would see opponents argue that he is fabricating an insurrection when it doesn’t exist.”
  — Ken Thomas [04:37]

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Important Timestamps

• 00:18–01:34 Trump-Iran strike deliberations and regional impact
• 01:34–02:23 Alex Ward analysis on U.S. military posturing and strategy
• 03:37–05:12 Ken Thomas on Trump’s Insurrection Act threat and precedent
• 06:51–09:31 Ryan December on copper mining innovations and implications
• 09:36–11:04 Rapid-fire news updates (Vail, Verizon, Spotify pricing)
• 11:04–11:30 Basketball game rigging scandal expansion

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Summary Takeaways

• The Trump administration is treading carefully on Iran, weighing military options against the risk of regional instability and escalation.
• Use of the Insurrection Act is discussed as a rare and controversial step, with potential legal complications and historical context provided.
• Innovations in U.S. copper production, driven by demand from tech giants like Amazon and trade policy changes, reflect the critical intersection of commodities and technology.
• The episode concludes with lively news bites on markets, disruptions, consumer pricing, and a landmark sports scandal—offering listeners insight into how political, technological, and cultural developments intersect in real time.

Transcript

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[Alex Osola]

Will President Trump order a military strike on Iran?

[Alex Ward]

Is he stepping back? Maybe there is a chance that this is a off ramp and he takes it. It's also a chance that it's a delay tactic. And there's also a chance that he's good now, but if Iran continues his crackdown, he's not good later.

[Alex Osola]

Plus, Trump threatens to invoke the Insurrection act in Minnesota. And why A new way to extract copper could help feed the data center.

[Ken Thomas]

Boom.

[Alex Osola]

It's Thursday, January 15th. I'm Alex Osola for the Wall Street Journal. This is the PM edition of what's News, the top headlines and business stories that move the. Foreign it's been a busy day for the Trump administration. President Trump has been weighing attacking Iran, where the government has met widespread demonstrations with a heavy crackdown. Today we're reporting that US And Middle Eastern officials told the White House that a large scale strike against Iran was unlikely to make the government fall and could instead spark a broader conflict. U.S. officials said they will monitor how Tehran handles protesters before deciding on a potential attack. WSJ national security reporter Alex Ward says there are other reasons why President Trump may be easing off.

[Alex Ward]

Countries in the region are concerned about this moving forward because they don't want to see a lot of volatility in their region. Trump seems to be signaling that as long as the crackdown on protesters doesn't go forward, he's good. But we can't forget that last June he announced to the world after the Wall Street Journal reported he had made the decision to attack, that he was actually open to two weeks of diplomacy with Iran over its nuclear program and instead went ahead and attacked Iran anyway. So I'm talking to certain officials who are telling me it's possible. They don't know for sure, but it's possible that Trump is stalling for time because there are certain amounts of military assets that he would like to see in the region that we currently don't have that could, if he were to order it, lead to a much broader scale attack on on Iran and and help the US Protect not only troops in the region, but also allies like Israel.

[Alex Osola]

Today, White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt suggested that military action wasn't off the table.

[Commercial Narrator]

The president and his team have communicated to the Iranian regime that if the killing continues, there will be grave consequences.

[Alex Osola]

She Added that, quote, only President Trump knows what he's going to do. Trump is expected to order the Pentagon to send the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier from the South China Sea to the Middle East, a trip that would take about a week. That's according to U.S. officials and a person familiar with the move. Meanwhile, in Iran, the government's crackdown has forced demonstrators off the streets in some cities. Although human rights groups say it's not totally clear what's happening due to the Internet shutdown, analysts say the quiet is likely temporary. In the Caribbean this morning, U.S. forces seized another oil tanker. The Trump administration has now captured six ships in its campaign against the dark fleet that transports sanctioned oil around the world. Back home, President Trump has threatened to invoke the Insurrection act against Minnesota. He said today on social media that he'd make a move if local officials don't stop the, quote, professional agitators and insurrectionists from attacking ice. WSJ national political reporter Ken Thomas says the Insurrection act has rarely been used in the modern era.

[Ken Thomas]

It's a law from 1807 that allows the president to use the military for civilian law enforcement purposes on U.S. soil under a narrow set of circumstances. It's been used a few dozen times in our nation's history, but it's been exceedingly rare in modern history. Saw it used in the 1960s during the Civil rights movement, but we have not seen it used since 1992 to deal with the civil unrest in the Los Angeles area after the acquittal of four police officers in the beating of Rodney King. Now, it's important to note that President George H.W. bush did this at the request of California's governor at the time, Pete Wilson.

[Alex Osola]

Ken says it's not clear that Trump will go forward with invoking the Insurrection Act. If he does, it could face a number of legal challenges.

[Ken Thomas]

I think you would see opponents argue that he is fabricating an insurrection when it doesn't exist. I think you would also see legal opponents make the case that this is constituting an abuse of power or a bad faith effort to try to suppress dissent for political reasons, not to try to enforce federal law or to protect civil rights. The key thing here is that this has been used in our country's history, but not recently. And so any legal challenge would be plowing through new ground here.

[Alex Osola]

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, a Democrat, made a direct appeal to Trump on social media today, asking him to turn down the temperature. He's urged demonstrators to protest peacefully. And the White House today released a health care framework called the great health care plan. It aims to codify executive actions Trump has taken on addressing health care costs, such as lowering prescription drug prices. Passing such legislation is likely to face hurdles in Congress. Strong earnings from investment banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. And chip maker TSMC lifted markets today. And BlackRock, the world's largest money manager, said its assets topped $14 trillion for the first time. The Dow led gains today in the major indexes, closing up 0.6%. Coming up, an Arizona mine that is a proving ground for the U.S. copper industry lands a major new customer. Basketball's expanding game rigging scandal and what was behind yesterday's Verizon outage. That's after the break.

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[Alex Osola]

An Arizona copper mine, the first new source of US Copper in more than a decade has landed its first major customer. It's Amazon, which needs the metal for its AI data centers. Ryan December, who covers commodities for the Journal, is here to tell us more about the mine and what the Amazon deal means for the US Copper industry. So, Brian, we've seen copper prices hit record after record recently. What is driving this demand?

[Ryan December]

So there's a problem brewing in copper where we won't have enough. We need globally a tremendous amount of copper, and that's because of a lot of different things are happening. We have this move to improve the power grid, expand it, make it able to handle electric vehicles. You have countries in the developing world where people are getting air conditioning and refrigerators and appliances for the first time. And then you have this AI boom. These data centers are basically giant buildings filled with copper. Every wire circuit board component has copper in it to move the electrons around. So they have a tremendous appetite for copper.

[Alex Osola]

And then, of course, President Trump has imposed a 50% import tax on copper products. How is that affecting things?

[Ryan December]

Well, that's making things like wire and pipe more expensive to bring into the country. So there's really been a focus on how do we produce more of this stuff within the U.S. the problem is a lot of that material needs to be sent abroad to be processed into useful forms that manufacturers can use and then brought back. So there's a lot of effort into figuring out ways to produce ready to use copper in the US that brings.

[Alex Osola]

Us directly to this mine in Arizona. So you write that it's using some new mining techniques. What are those and why is it important to this industry?

[Ryan December]

It's a relatively small mine, but it's important because a company called Rio Tinto, one of the world's largest miners, is basically running an industrial scale trial of a new technology they've developed where they add bacteria to the acid that's normally poured over certain copper ores to extract the copper in solution. The resulting copper cathodes are like pure copper. They're ready to go. They can sell them right to automakers or tech firms for their data centers or companies that are making plumbing parts and pipe. So if Rio's successful, it's the sort of technology that they can take to a lot of other mines. They're trying to see if they can take this cocktail of bacteria they've developed and make copper out of stuff that was essentially wasted. This could potentially open up a lot of that material to become useful stuff.

[Alex Osola]

For us and maybe expand the US Copper mining industry.

[Ryan December]

Absolutely.

[Alex Osola]

That was WSJ reporter Ryan December. Thanks, Ryan.

[Ryan December]

Thank you.

[Alex Osola]

And if you've taken a real shine to copper, we'll leave a link to a recent episode we did all about the relationship of copper's price to the economy. In our show notes, the company Vail Resorts said the number of skiers visiting its mountains this season was down 20%, mostly because there's been so little snow in the mountains out west. But its east coast resorts had plenty of snow, which helped offset the effect of the lack of snow in the Rockies. Verizon said today that its hours long wireless outage yesterday was linked to a software update. The company's offering a $20 credit to customers whose service went down. And Spotify is raising the price of its premium subscription in the US from $11.99 a month to $12.99 a month. The new price takes effect next month. And finally, it's one of the most sprawling gambling cases in the history of American sports, the basketball betting scandal. And it's gotten even bigger. This morning, federal prosecutors laid out more details of a conspiracy to allegedly rig dozens of games reaching from US College basketball to the top professional league in China. The government says that for U.S. college ball, at least 39 players on 17 different Division 1 teams match manipulated contests in 2024 and 2025. It's part of the same investigation that in October resulted in indictments against an NBA coach and a player. And that's what's news for this Thursday afternoon. Today's show is produced by Pierre Biennma with supervising producer Tali Arbel. I'm Alex Osola for the Wall Street Journal. We'll be back with a new show tomorrow morning. Thanks for listening. Foreign. Break free from the AI frenzy and truly transform your marketing. With Adobe, the path to ROI is clear and the opportunity is all around you. Let's turn AI's promise into your marketing reality.

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