Trump’s Big Bet on Immigration Isn’t Paying Off for Most Workers

Summary

WSJ What’s News – PM Edition

Episode Title: Trump’s Big Bet on Immigration Isn’t Paying Off for Most Workers
Date: April 22, 2026
Host: Alex Osola
Featured Reporter: Paul Kiernan

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Episode Overview

This episode centers on a new Wall Street Journal analysis of the impact of President Trump’s ongoing immigration crackdown, particularly whether the policy has delivered on promises of improved wages and job opportunities for American-born workers. The hosts and guests break down recent labor data and White House responses to examine whether the administration’s claims hold up, with special attention to industries that rely heavily on immigrant labor.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump Administration's Immigration Crackdown and Labor Market Expectations

• [00:28] Paul Kiernan summarizes the Trump administration’s position:
  • Reducing immigration is intended to drive higher wages and more jobs for American-born workers.
• Finding from WSJ Data Review:
  • According to the Journal’s analysis, “we just didn’t really find a whole lot of evidence of that.” (Paul Kiernan, [00:28])

2. Labor Market Analysis – Wages and Job Growth

• [08:47] Paul Kiernan clarifies the administration’s economic hypothesis:
  • If the crackdown worked, there should be “faster wage growth for American-born workers.”
  • Current Situation:
    • Wage growth for U.S.-born workers is slowing, contrary to expectations.
    • Sectors that rely on unauthorized immigrant labor (e.g., meatpacking, food services, restaurants) are not seeing wage outperformance:
      • Broader Private Sector: Average hourly earnings rose 3.8% (February, year-over-year)
      • 41 Industries dependent on low-skilled immigrants: Earnings rose 3.5%
    • “In those sectors, wage growth is mostly below what’s happening in the rest of the economy.” (Paul Kiernan, [08:47])

3. Sector-Specific Outcomes and White House Response

• [09:50] The White House highlighted construction and trucking as positive examples:
  • Wages are indeed up, but “not really up meaningfully more than they are in the broader economy.” (Paul Kiernan, [09:55])
• The White House also argued:
  • Real (inflation-adjusted) wages have risen.
  • Labor force participation for prime-age workers remains strong, though “it doesn’t look like it’s risen meaningfully over the Trump administration.”
  • “It was basically at the same level at various points under President Biden, but it is quite strong.” (Paul Kiernan, [09:55])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Paul Kiernan on the overall lack of positive impact:
  • “We did a broad review of labor department data on wages and job growth and unemployment, and we just didn’t really find a whole lot of evidence of that.” ([00:28])
• Paul Kiernan on sectoral wage growth:
  • “In the broader private sector, average hourly earnings rose 3.8% in February from a year earlier. And in the 41 industries that we identified that rely on lower skilled immigrants, they only rose 3.5%.” ([08:47])
• Paul Kiernan clarifying White House’s position:
  • “Wages are up in those sectors, but they're not really up meaningfully more than they are in the broader economy.” ([09:55])

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:28 – Introduction to topic: Trump Administration’s immigration crackdown and its anticipated benefit to U.S. workers.
• 08:47 – WSJ analysis on wage trends and what the data shows in low-skilled, immigrant-heavy industries.
• 09:50 – Discussion of the White House response, sector-specific details, and broader labor market context.

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Additional Relevant Headlines (Briefly Covered)

Note: These stories provide context to the episode but are not the main focus.

• Tesla Reports Higher Profits and Sales ([00:45])
• Boeing Production Updates ([02:04])
• Spirit Airlines Rescue Deal ([02:11])
• Leadership Changes at Lululemon & Best Buy ([02:50])
• Nasdaq and Oil Markets Update ([03:15])
• Hot New AI-Themed ETF Explained ([04:10]; Jack Pitcher)
• Google’s New AI Chip and Its Strategy ([05:45]; Katherine Blunt)
• Global Political Updates:
  • Georgia Congressman David Scott’s passing ([07:15])
  • Developments in the Middle East ([07:38])
  • EU financial support for Ukraine ([07:58])

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Episode Tone

The discussion is data-driven and analytical, with both the host and guest taking care to ground their commentary in recent statistics and impartial findings. Where claims from the administration or the White House are presented, they are met with direct reference to current data—lending the episode an air of journalistic diligence and clarity.

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In Summary

Despite President Trump and his allies’ assertions, the WSJ’s comprehensive review finds little empirical support that the immigration crackdown has resulted in meaningful wage gains or job growth for most American-born workers—particularly in sectors purported to benefit most. The evidence suggests only modest or negligible differences in wage growth for these groups, sparking ongoing debate about the real impact of restrictive immigration policies on the broader U.S. labor market.

Transcript

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[Alex Osola]

The Trump Administration Nears a Deal to Save Spirit Airlines plus, how has President Trump's immigration crackdown affected the labor market? We dig into the data.

[Paul Kiernan]

President Trump and his allies have long said that reducing immigration would bring higher wages and more jobs to American born workers. We did a broad review of Labor Department data on wages and job growth and unemployment, and we just didn't really find a whole lot of evidence of

[Alex Osola]

that And Tesla Reports Higher Profit and Sales in its Latest quarter it's Wednesday, April 22nd. I'm Alex Osola for the Wall Street Journal. This is the PM edition of what's News, the top headlines and business stories that move the world. Tesla reports this afternoon that profit grew 17% from a year earlier, while sales grew 16% to $22.4 billion. In the auto division, deliveries were up more than 6%. Tesla is trying to pivot its business away from vehicle sales to focus on autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots, neither of which are currently for sale. For more on Tesla's earnings, go to WSJ.com Boeing's Commercial Jet Production kept gaining steam in the first quarter, helping to reduce the company's quarterly loss. Its loss came to million, compared to $31 million the year before and beat Wall Street's expectations. The company still burned through about one and a half billion dollars in the quarter, a hangover from the production caps that regulators imposed two years ago to address issues with quality control. Officials have relaxed some of those limits, and now more 737 Max jets are rolling off the line. On CNBC this morning, Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg talked about the company's plan for stepping up production of the plane this summer.

[Kelly Ortberg]

We're hearing very good things about the quality of the airplanes from our customers, so all systems are go for this next rate increase for us.

[Alex Osola]

Boeing stock closed up five and a half percent, and we're exclusively reporting that the Trump administration is nearing a rescue deal with Spirit Airlines. The agreement could see the US government loaning the discount carrier as much as $500 million. In return, it would receive warrants to take a potential significant stake in Spirit. The government has helped the airline industry in times of crisis like after September 11, but rescuing spirit would be a rare intervention to prop up a single carrier. The White House says it's monitoring the health of the U.S. aviation Industry President Trump yesterday told CNBC that he's troubled by the idea of spirit going out of business and that maybe the federal government should, quote, help that one out. In corporate leadership news, Former Nike executive Heidi o' Neill will be Lululemon's next CEO starting in September. She'll be expected to help revive the athletic clothing brand in the US And Best Buy said today that its CEO Corey Berry is stepping down in October. Jason Bonfig, a longtime Best Buy executive, is replacing her. The electronics retailer has reported years of tepid sales growth that weighed on its stock. President Trump's extension of the Iran ceasefire helped stocks rebound after two straight days of declines. The Nasdaq led the gains, closing up 1.6%. Oil traders weren't so optimistic and Brent crude, the international benchmark, closed above $100 a barrel for the first time in two weeks. A new exchange traded fund is seeing one of the fastest starts in recent history. The Roundhill Memory ETF tracks computer memory and storage stocks and launched quietly earlier this month. In less than two weeks, it has gathered more than a billion dollars in assets, rare for any ETF and an unprecedented feat for such a small money manager. WSJ markets reporter Jack Pitcher says the fund's success is mostly because it's concentrated in a hot segment of the market.

[Jack Pitcher]

As some of these AI companies are building out the infrastructure and the data centers needed to power their models, they're running into a shortage of memory. There's only a handful of major companies that make the type of memory they need, and the stocks of those have been absolutely soaring this year. A couple of them are South Korean stocks, including Samsung. A few are based in the US like SanDisk. This ETF is a very concentrated bet on four or five of the biggest memory stocks. So it's less risky than only owning one of them and lets investors easily get exposure. There's also some evidence of bigger investors buying this, like hedge funds based on the ticket sizes. But another kind of unique part about this one is they're seeing a lot of overseas retail interest that they expect is from South Korean investors. Retail trading is really popular in South Korea and now that a couple of the biggest Korean companies that manufacture memory have become hot stock marketplace in the US it's become a really popular ETF for Korean investors to trade.

[Alex Osola]

Coming up, we've got some more AI news about Google and the new frontier of AI. That's after the break.

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[Alex Osola]

Google has developed a new kind of AI chip. Katherine Blunt, who covers Google for the Journal, says it's meant to meet growing demand for a new wave of AI computing called inference.

[Katherine Blunt]

Inference, it's the computing process necessary to answer a query on behalf of a user. For example, you ask ChatGPT a question, the process that's going on behind the scenes there before a response is generated. That's inference. And inference is becoming increasingly important as we move into an era of agents which are capable of doing things on behalf of a user without explicit instruction from one. So you could instruct the agent to clean up your inbox, then it will go decide how to do that by itself. This particular chip, it's very efficient and it's supposed to be tailored for this process that's becoming increasingly important, Catherine says

[Alex Osola]

the development sharpens Google's rivalry with AI chip giant Nvidia.

[Katherine Blunt]

These are custom made in house hardware that's been developing for many years, largely for its own use. Google needs a lot of these for the AI models and other things that it's developing. There's questions about the degree to which Google will eventually externalize access to its chips, but we've seen the company strike deals to allow anthropic access to its chips, meta access to its chips, and we'll see whether the company takes any sort of other strategic directions in making its chips available.

[Alex Osola]

Georgia Democratic Representative David Scott has died at 80 years old. The longtime congressman is the fifth House lawmaker to die in office since this Congress started last year. He represented a solidly blue district in the metro Atlanta area in the Middle East. Iran has attacked three ships in the Strait of Hormuz and escorted two of them to Iranian waters. U.S. officials said President Trump will give Iran a few days to offer a peace plan, a sign that his cease fire extension won't last indefinitely. Meanwhile, mediators are scrambling to get the diplomatic process back on track. Officials say they're working to arrange a possible meeting between Iran and the US as soon as Friday. And European Union ambassadors have agreed to loan Ukraine More than $100 billion financing vital for Kyiv to sustain its fight against Russia. The approval came after Hungary dropped its veto the end of a month long standoff between Ukraine and Hungary's departing prime minister, Viktor Orban. It's been more than a year since President Trump began his immigration crackdown, and we're starting to get some answers to a long standing policy question what effect do immigrants have on wages and what happens when those immigrants leave? A new Wall Street Journal analysis of government data found there isn't much evidence of widespread disruptions in the labor market or of meaningful benefits to American workers. Journal economics reporter Paul Kiernan joins us now. Paul, what does President Trump say the effect of the immigration crackdown should be on the labor market?

[Paul Kiernan]

The economic rationale that we occasionally hear from President Trump and his allies is that the immigration crackdown will improve labor market conditions for workers who were born in the US For American citizens. If President Trump's hypothesis was holding true, you would probably see faster wage growth for American born workers. That's not what we're seeing. We're seeing wage growth kind of coming down for US Born workers. And you would probably also expect to see fast wage growth in the industries that rely on a lot of immigrants who are in the country illegally. So things like meatpacking, food services and restaurants. And in those sectors, wage growth is mostly below what's happening in the rest of the economy. So in the broader private sector, average hourly earnings rose 3.8% in February from a year earlier. And in the 41 industries that we identified that rely on lower skilled immigrants, they only rose 3.5%.

[Alex Osola]

And you reached out to the White House for this story. What do they have to say about this?

[Paul Kiernan]

They highlighted construction and trucking as sectors where wages have grown and wages are up in those sectors, but they're not really up meaningfully more than they are in the broader economy. The White House also pointed to real wages. So that's how much did your wages rise after inflation and inflation adjusted wages are up. And the White House also argues that labor force participation among people who are in their prime working years is quite strong. It doesn't look like it's risen meaningfully over the Trump administration. It was basically at the same level at various points under President Biden, but it is quite strong.

[Alex Osola]

That was WSJ reporter Paul Kiernan. Thanks so much, Paul.

[Paul Kiernan]

Thanks a lot, Alex.

[Alex Osola]

And that's what's news for this Wednesday afternoon. Today's show was produced by Pierre Bienname, Danny Lewis and Alyssa Luckpat with supervising producer Tali Arbel. I'm Alex Osola for the Wall Street Journal. We'll be back with a new show tomorrow morning. Thanks for listening.

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