Trump’s Got a Friendly Congress. What Does that Mean for His Agenda?

Summary

WSJ What’s News: "Trump’s Got a Friendly Congress. What Does that Mean for His Agenda?"

Release Date: January 19, 2025
Host: Alex Osola
Guest: Siobhan Hughes, Congressional Reporter for The Wall Street Journal

---

Introduction: Setting the Stage

In the January 19, 2025 episode of WSJ What’s News, host Alex Osola delves into the intricate dynamics between the incoming President Donald Trump and the 119th Congress. Despite Trump not yet being inaugurated, his influence on the legislative chambers is already palpable. The discussion centers on what Trump’s relationship with a Republican-controlled Congress could mean for his policy agenda.

Trump’s Influence on Congress Before Inauguration

Alex Osola opens the conversation by highlighting the unique situation where President-elect Donald Trump is already impacting Congressional operations:

"Though President elect Donald Trump hasn't taken office yet, he's already having an impact on those legislative chambers. What might we see from Congress once Trump takes office, and what does that mean for Trump's agenda?"
[00:16]

Differences from Trump's First Term

Siobhan Hughes contrasts the upcoming term with Trump's first presidency, emphasizing Trump's evolved political stature and strategic approach:

"This moment has a lot of differences. You are seeing a more powerful Donald Trump. Unlike in 2016, he comes in having won the popular vote and he knows it."
[01:30]

Hughes notes that Trump's previous governance experience equips him with a better understanding of navigating Congressional resistance, positioning him to push his agenda more assertively.

Trump’s Agenda: Key Priorities

When asked about Trump's primary objectives, Hughes outlines four main areas:

"Just like bullet points, the border is the big one. Also on his agenda are some pretty significant tariffs that he would like to impose. And then finally there are the must do things: the expiration of the 2017 tax cuts enacted during his first term, reform, and the increase in the debt ceiling."
[02:17]

These focus areas indicate Trump's commitment to immigration control, economic protectionism, fiscal policy adjustments, and national debt management.

The Mechanics of Pushing Trump’s Agenda through Congress

Osola probes the extent of Trump's unilateral power, to which Hughes responds by discussing Trump's strategy to centralize authority:

"He used basically national security law to impose tariffs... yanking power into his own hands in the executive branch."
[02:48]

Hughes warns of a "muscular presidency" where Trump might test the boundaries of federal law to assert dominance over Congressional authority.

Potential Pushback and Republican Unity

Discussing the likelihood of internal resistance, Hughes observes:

"Right now, this is a very powerful president, and it's going to be hard to get a lot of Republican pushback... The Republican Party essentially shut up and went along."
[04:01]

However, she cautions that Trump's ability to maintain support within the Republican base is crucial, noting a window of six months to capitalize on his current popularity before potential waning interest sets in.

Legislative Tools: Budget Reconciliation

Osola asks about the Republican strategy to pass legislation swiftly, focusing on the budget reconciliation process:

"Johnson has said his party hopes to pass some bills through a process called budget reconciliation. Can you explain what that is?"
[06:48]

Hughes elaborates:

"Budget reconciliation... allows Republicans to shove bills through the Senate without meeting the 60 vote super majority threshold for passing most legislation."
[06:55]

This method is described as a "muscular tool" to bypass Democratic opposition, though it requires navigating complex procedural gates.

Internal Divisions within Republicans

The conversation shifts to potential rifts within the Republican ranks that could challenge the passage of Trump's agenda:

"Even border, for example, is going to be a little bit tricky because if deportation is a big part of the agenda, Republicans are going to have to contend with members from agricultural districts that do tend to rely a lot on migrant labor..."
[07:59]

Additionally, fiscal conservatives within the party express concerns over tax policy changes, which may impede unified support for the reconciliation package.

Strategy of a Single Comprehensive Bill

Hughes explains the strategic advantage of consolidating various policy measures into a single legislative package:

"The upside is that a big bill will have something for everybody... you can set aside those frustrations and embrace the component of the bill that is really important to you and calculate that as a win."
[08:50]

This approach aims to maximize legislative passage by appealing to diverse interests within the Republican coalition.

Potential Democratic Cooperation

Surprisingly, Hughes shares insights from a discussion with Democratic Senator John Fetterman, indicating potential bipartisan collaboration:

"He indicated he was not shutting the door to working with Republicans on reconciliation... wasn’t necessarily going to be a no vote on a larger pack."
[09:49]

This openness suggests that under certain conditions, Democrats might support elements of the Republican agenda, particularly if they pertain to border security.

Debt Ceiling Challenges

Addressing the contentious issue of the debt ceiling, Hughes points out the precarious balance Republicans must maintain:

"If you have just a couple of Republicans peel off and there is a pretty significant fiscally conservative wing... Donald Trump and Republicans will be forced into the arms of Democrats, which could mean they will have to make compromises that they don't like."
[10:22]

The narrow majority in the House makes passing debt ceiling increases through reconciliation a complex endeavor, potentially necessitating bipartisan concessions.

Long-term Republican Agenda and Future Challenges

Looking beyond the immediate term, Hughes discusses the challenges the Republican Party faces in sustaining its legislative efforts:

"The game plan is really to get it all done this year. If they don't get it done this year, we're talking about pushing that agenda out until next year. And that's really going to be politically challenging."
[11:10]

She also highlights the erosion of the political middle, suggesting an increasingly polarized environment where parties retreat to their ideological bases.

Conclusion: The State of Congress and Trump’s Presidency

As the episode wraps up, Hughes reflects on the broader implications of the current Congressional landscape:

"This Congress is a very interesting Congress in that it pits the Republican Party, which increasingly is the party of Donald Trump, against everybody else. That middle has been hollowed out..."
[11:27]

The conversation underscores a pivotal moment where Trump’s enhanced influence and a divided Congress set the stage for a potentially transformative, yet contentious, presidency.

---

Notable Quotes:

• "You should look for a very muscular presidency, a person who at times has tested the limits of federal law and one who really asserted his power over the power of Congress."
  — Siobhan Hughes, [02:48]

• "Budget reconciliation is the tool you use to crush Democratic dissent and assert the Republican Party's will in its purest form."
  — Siobhan Hughes, [06:55]

• "This Congress is a very interesting Congress in that it pits the Republican Party, which increasingly is the party of Donald Trump, against everybody else."
  — Siobhan Hughes, [11:27]

---

This comprehensive summary encapsulates the key discussions of the episode, providing listeners with a clear understanding of the intricate relationship between Donald Trump and the 119th Congress, the strategic legislative maneuvers at play, and the potential ramifications for the upcoming presidency.

Transcript

[Commercial Announcer]

Okay, business leaders, are you here to play or are you playing to win? If you're in it to win, meet your next MVP. NetSuite by Oracle right now, get the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine Learning at netsuite.com Wall street netsuite.com Wall Street.

[Alex Osola]

Hey, what's news, listeners? It's Sunday, January 19th. I'm Alex Osola for the Wall Street Journal. This is what's News Sunday, the show where we tackle the big questions about the biggest stories in the news by reaching out to our colleagues across the newsroom to help explain what's happen world. This week, the 119th Congress is officially in session. Though President elect Donald Trump hasn't taken office yet, he's already having an impact on those legislative chambers. What might we see from Congress once Trump takes office, and what does that mean for Trump's agenda? Congress has been in session for a little over two weeks now, and lawmakers have already set a tone for how they might function as a governing body. Republicans have slim majorities in both the House and the Senate, but but they're already showing they can get stuff done. Trump might be pulling the strings from off stage as president elect, but how might his dynamic with Congress change once he's actually in office? Here to discuss is Siobhan Hughes, who covers Congress for the Wall Street Journal. So in some ways, Siobhan, this moment is similar to the start of Trump's first presidency. He's coming into office with a Republican led Senate and House. How is this moment maybe different from 2017? As far as Trump and Congress are.

[Siobhan Hughes]

Concerned, this moment has a lot of differences. You are seeing a more powerful Donald Trump. Unlike in 2016, he comes in having won the popular vote and he knows it. Many of the lawmakers, particularly in the Senate, who have their seats owe those seats to Donald Trump's popularity in their states. And finally, Donald Trump now has experience. After having governed for four years, he knows the ways that he can get thwarted. He intends for that to not happen again. And furthermore, this is a man with an agenda. In 2016, the Republican Party essentially used him to enact their agenda of tax cuts and a conservative Supreme Court. Donald Trump now has his own ideas for what he wants to accomplish. Yeah.

[Alex Osola]

Tell me a little bit more about what is on Trump's agenda.

[Siobhan Hughes]

Just like bullet points, the border is the big one. Also on his agenda are some pretty significant tariffs that he would like to impose. And then finally there are the must do things. The expiration of the 2017 tax cuts enacted during his first term reform, and also the increase in the debt ceiling.

[Alex Osola]

The government is not a single person or even a single office. Power is divided among branches of government. So how much is Trump able to accomplish of this agenda just on his own?

[Siobhan Hughes]

Well, it really depends on how much he wants to use the tools he has and then how much he wants to test the limits of his power. So, for example, in his first term, he used basically national security law to impose tariffs. And it's pretty clear he wants to try that same approach this time, essentially yanking power into his own hands in the executive branch. In addition, there are some signs he also wants to really push the limits of this constraint on his power, this 1974 law that essentially says the president must spend money appropriated by Congress. He's planning to have in place an official at the Office of Management and Budget who really disagrees with the limits imposed by that law and is telegraphing that he plans to test, in fact, whether or not Trump is going to have to spend money the way Congress wants him to. And so you should look for a very muscular presidency, a person who at times has tested the limits of federal law and one really asserted his power over the power of Congress.

[Alex Osola]

How much pushback are we expecting to see if Trump does try to test the limits of his office?

[Siobhan Hughes]

Well, right now, this is a very powerful president, and it's going to be hard to get a lot of Republican pushback. And you saw that, for example, in the vote to elect a new Republican speaker earlier this year, when you had the whiff of dissent from a handful of Republicans. Donald Trump picked up that phone, made very clear he had won their districts, and the Republican Party essentially shut up and went along. Now, that said, a lot of this is going to depend upon whether or not Donald Trump is able to sustain his popularity within the Republican base. And a lot of Republicans say that Trump basically has six months of popularity to accomplish his agenda before the sugar high, the honeymoon, starts to wear off.

[Alex Osola]

So he's got six months to really push forward his agenda.

[Siobhan Hughes]

How?

[Alex Osola]

Just sort of on a nuts and bolts level. How does it work for him to get his agenda through Congress or with Congress?

[Siobhan Hughes]

Well, there's a lot of communication back and forth, and part of it takes place at the staff level. Part of it takes place at the level of Donald Trump. Donald Trump has the phone numbers of many of these Republican lawmakers, and it's not uncommon for people to see a phone number pop up on their phone, and it turns out it's the president. Now, the President elect, is there any.

[Alex Osola]

Other X factor that could tell us how some of that influence might work?

[Siobhan Hughes]

Personalities. Donald Trump is a transactional president, but part of what's embedded in his transactions are his relationships with people, essentially who he likes and who he doesn't like. And right now he seems to like House Speaker Mike Johnson or feel warmer towards him than he feels towards Senate Majority Leader John Thune. And so that's going to be a factor. And then another factor is a lot of policy could hinge on whoever Donald Trump makes that last phone call to.

[Alex Osola]

We have to take a quick break, but when we come back, we get a little more into the nuts and bolts of how some of this legislation might get passed, including one measure that's been in the news a lot. Stay with us.

[Commercial Announcer]

Okay, business leaders, are you here to play or are you playing to win? If you're in it to win, meet your next mvp. Netsuite by Oracle netsuite is your full business management system in one convenience suite. With NetSuite, you're running your accounting, your finance, your HR, your E commerce, and more, all from your online dashboard. Upgrade your playbook and make the switch to NetSuite, the number one cloud ERP. Get the CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at netsuite.com Wall street netsuite.com Wall Street.

[Alex Osola]

Johnson has said his party hopes to pass some bills through a process called budget reconciliation. Can you explain what that is?

[Siobhan Hughes]

Yeah. So budget reconciliation is this muscular tool that essentially sets up an exception to the filibuster. It allows Republicans to shove bills through the Senate without meeting the 60 vote super majority threshold for passing most legislation. It's a very complicated process. It requires going through a gatekeeper known as the parliamentarian. You can think of her as the referee who says whether or not certain provisions can or cannot be included on the playing field. But at the end of the day, it's the tool you use to crush Democratic dissent and assert the Republican Party's will in its purest form.

[Alex Osola]

I guess this technique assumes that Republicans are all in line, right?

[Siobhan Hughes]

Given the narrow margins in this Congress, particularly in the House. Yes.

[Alex Osola]

Okay, so it sounds like border is going to be something that maybe this will work for. But what are some issues that have the potential to divide Republicans in Congress? And maybe, you know, this technique wouldn't work as well.

[Siobhan Hughes]

Well, even border, for example, is going to be a little bit tricky because if deportation is a big part of the agenda, Republicans are going to have to contend with members from agricultural districts that do tend to rely a lot on migrant labor in the tax fight that's already taking place. You're already starting to see Republicans from states like New York and California say, hey, we remember when you set a cap on deductions for state and local taxes and that $10,000 cap is way too low for our constituents, we need to increase that limit.

[Alex Osola]

Johnson has laid out a plan for not keeping all of these different agenda items as separate bills, but rolling them all up into a single package, which Trump has called one big, beautiful bill. What is the advantage, Republicans of trying to do this all in a single bill?

[Siobhan Hughes]

Well, the way Mike Johnson sees it is that because different elements of a large bill are likely to be controversial and turn off some constituencies, the upside is that a big bill will have something for everybody. And therefore, if there's a piece of the bill you don't like, maybe you can set aside those frustrations and embrace the component of the bill that is really important to you and calculate that as a win.

[Alex Osola]

If there is a Republican lawmaker who isn't necessarily on board with Trump's agenda and wants to kind of kneecap some of this movement, how successful could they be?

[Siobhan Hughes]

Well, it depends on whether or not that Republican would like to invite a primary challenge or wishes to have their job when they come up for election. Again. They could be successful, but they will pay a price or at least run the risk of paying a price.

[Alex Osola]

Could some Democratic lawmakers potentially help out the Republican agenda?

[Siobhan Hughes]

So I sat down with Democratic Senator John Fetterman from Pennsylvania, and I asked him this, and he indicated he was not shutting the door to working with Republicans on reconciliation. He sounded most optimistic, in fact, about providing a vote for border spending if that moved as part of a separate package. But he also indicated he wasn't necessarily going to be a no vote on a larger pack.

[Alex Osola]

Wow, that is interesting. How about stuff like debt ceiling, which has been in the conversation a lot.

[Siobhan Hughes]

So Republicans have indicated they do want to try to increase the debt ceiling through the reconciliation package, but already you're starting to have some problems there because the majority in the House in particular is so, so narrow. And if you have just a couple of Republicans peel off and there is a pretty significant fiscally conservative wing in that party, then Donald Trump and Republicans will be forced into the arms of Democrats, which could mean they will have to make compromises that they don't like.

[Alex Osola]

We've been talking about the kinds of topics and agenda items that we might hear about in the first six months of Trump's presidency. What are some items that might be a little further down Republicans list that maybe we'll be talking about one year from now?

[Siobhan Hughes]

I mean, right now, the game plan is really to get it all done this year. If they don't get it done this year, we're talking about pushing that agenda out until next year. And that's really going to be politically challenging.

[Alex Osola]

So is there a middle ground in this Congress?

[Siobhan Hughes]

This Congress is a very interesting Congress in that it pits the Republican Party, which increasingly is the party of Donald Trump, against everybody else. That middle has been hollowed out, and it's not really clear if that's going to be a vacuum that's going to suck more players into the middle or if everybody is going to retreat to their partisan corners.

[Alex Osola]

Siobhan Hughes is a congressional reporter for the Wall Street Journal. Siobhan, thank you so much.

[Siobhan Hughes]

Always good to be here. Thank you, too.

[Alex Osola]

And that's it for what's new Sunday for January 19th. Today's show was produced by Charlotte Gartenberg with supervising producer Michael Kosmitis. We got help from deputy editors Scott Salloway and Chris Zinsley. I'm Alex Osola. We'll be back on Monday morning with a new show. Thanks for listening.

[Commercial Announcer]

Okay, business leaders, are you here to play or are you playing to win? If you're in it to win, meet your next mvp. Netsuite by Oracle netsuite is your full business management system in one convenience suite. With NetSuite, you're running your accounting, your finance, your HR, your e commerce and more, all from your online dashboard. Upgrade your playbook and make the switch to NetSuite, the number one cloud ERP. Get the CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at netsuite.com Wall street netsuite.com Wall Street.