Trump’s Threats Over Greenland Send Stock Markets Diving

Summary

WSJ What’s News – PM Edition

Episode: Trump’s Threats Over Greenland Send Stock Markets Diving
Date: January 20, 2026
Host: Alex Osola (with contributors Hannah Aaron Lange, Bradley Olson, Ryan Knudson, Teo Francis)

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Episode Overview

This episode covers a rollercoaster day in global markets and politics, as President Trump’s threats and persistent pursuit to acquire Greenland unsettle European leaders and send shockwaves through financial markets. The episode also spotlights cutting-edge developments in AI coding with Anthropic’s new Claude Code tool and scrutinizes whether massive CEO pay packages translate into superior company performance. Highlights from Netflix’s latest quarter and an evolving media acquisition round out the business headlines.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s Greenland Gambit Shakes Markets and Allies

[00:22–04:00]

• President Trump threatens tariffs on European allies, tying them to his efforts to acquire Greenland.

  • European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen firmly rejects any negotiation over Greenland’s sovereignty and warns of a “dangerous downward spiral” in US-European relations.
  • Quote [00:48] – Ursula von der Leyen:

    “The sovereignty and integrity of that territory is non negotiable... [this is a] dangerous downward spiral in the transatlantic partnership.”

• Greenland’s Prime Minister says the island must brace for US military pressure.

• German military officials voice concern over NATO’s stability, warning Russia could exploit these rifts.

• Retaliatory tariffs could hit $100 billion in US exports (e.g., Boeing planes, bourbon).

• President Trump remains unyielding publicly, suggesting a deal on Greenland is possible:

  • Quote [01:58] – President Trump:

    “I think things are going to work out pretty well.”

  • Memorable moment
    [02:29] – Press Q&A highlight
    Ryan Knudson: “How far are you willing to go to acquire Greenland?”
    Trump: “You’ll find out.”

• Markets react sharply:

  • Nasdaq tumbles 2.4%, S&P down 2.1%, and the Dow plunges 1.8%.
  • S&P now negative for the year ([02:47]).
  • Safe-haven assets (gold, silver) hit new records.

• Analyst context:

  • Quote [03:05] – Hannah Aaron Lange (WSJ):

    “It almost feels like tariffs is kind of a trigger word on Wall Street... This has just sparked some renewed trade war fears on Wall Street and unsettled folks about what could lie ahead in 2026.”

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2. Trump’s Board of Peace – Global Reactions

[03:54–04:50]

• President Trump invites foreign leaders to join a new “Board of Peace” aimed at mediating global conflict, positioning it as an alternative to the UN.
  • Permanent membership requires a $1 billion fee.
  • Mixed international response: Belarus, Hungary, and Morocco accept; UK, Russia considering; France declines ([04:30]).

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3. Claude Code: Silicon Valley’s Latest AI Buzz

[05:38–08:10]

• New AI coding tool from Anthropic, “Claude Code,” excites developers and non-programmers alike.
  • With recent update (Opus 4.5), coders report startling productivity gains.
  • Quote [05:58] – Bradley Olson (WSJ Tech Editor):

    “I can’t believe that I just told it what to do, and then it produced the kind of workload that I might have done myself in a fairly limited period of time.”

  • The “awakening of capability” compared to the debut of ChatGPT.
  • Some experienced professionals express anxiety:
    • Quote [07:00] – Bradley Olson:

      “This person went to Brown … and has an expertise that he’s built up over his entire life; to see a software program kind of fully automate that … was just deeply shocking to him.”

  • Debate on hiring: will AI replace coders or make them more productive?
  • Anthropic heads toward IPO, targeting enterprise growth ([07:52]).

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4. Media Mergers: Netflix’s Warner Brothers Discovery Bid

[08:20–09:25]

• Netflix makes an all-cash, $72 billion offer for Warner Studios and HBO Max, possibly besting a rival Paramount bid.

  • Shareholder vote expected by April.

• Netflix’s strong Q4 results:

  • Revenue/profit up; subscriptions surpass 325 million.
  • “Stranger Things” finale bolsters viewership.

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5. CEO Moonshot Pay Packages: Do They Deliver?

[09:25–12:26]

• Analysis of recent $100M+ CEO compensation deals post-Elon Musk’s precedent-setting Tesla package.
  • Structured with high targets and long terms (5–10 years).
  • Quote [09:48] – Ryan Knudson (WSJ):

    “What really distinguishes these is that they’re valued really highly to begin with, but they have the potential to really balloon. And that’s because they’re tied to performance targets.”

  • Not just mega-caps—startups and disruptors like KKR, Rivian, Roblox, Robinhood joined the trend.
  • Equilar analysis (2020–2021): Of ~20 companies with these packages, only a handful delivered on ambitious goals.
  • Only about a quarter outperformed the S&P 500.
  • Quote [12:01] – Ryan Knudson:

    “If these moonshot pay packages are supposed to spur CEOs to drive their companies to greater heights, it’s not clear that worked in most of these cases.”

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Ursula von der Leyen at Davos [00:48]:

  “The sovereignty and integrity of that territory is non negotiable.”

• President Trump resisting pressure [01:58]:

  “I think things are going to work out pretty well.”

• Trump on Greenland’s fate, coy at press conference [02:32]:

  “You’ll find out.”

• Hannah Aaron Lange on tariffs and Wall Street panic [03:05]:

  “Tariffs is kind of a trigger word on Wall Street … just sparked some renewed trade war fears … unsettled folks about what could lie ahead in 2026.”

• Bradley Olson on AI shock factor [07:00]:

  “This person … has an expertise that he’s built up over his entire life; to see a software program … fully automate that … was just deeply shocking.”

• Ryan Knudson on CEO pay [09:48 and 12:01]:

  “What really distinguishes these is … they’re tied to performance targets…”
  “…it’s not clear that worked in most of these cases.”

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Trump/Greenland, markets, Europe’s reaction: [00:22]–[04:00]
• Board of Peace, international response: [03:54]–[04:50]
• Anthropic Claude Code and AI industry impact: [05:38]–[08:10]
• Media mega-merger (Netflix & Warner): [08:20]–[09:25]
• Moonshot CEO pay explained and evaluated: [09:25]–[12:26]

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Takeaway

This episode traces how political brinkmanship and global economics are on a collision course, with President Trump’s bid for Greenland exemplifying both foreign policy turbulence and market fragility. Meanwhile, tech and corporate America continue their own revolutions—from AI reshaping code to boardrooms betting big on CEO talent, for better or worse.

The reporting is brisk, direct, and at times laced with skepticism—mirroring the urgent, analytical tone that defines WSJ’s business coverage.

Transcript

[Ryan Knudson]

Hey, it's Ryan Knudson, host of the Journal Podcast, our show about money, business and power. If you're looking for more deeply reported stories like we share every day, consider becoming a subscriber to the Wall Street Journal. Visit subscribe.WSJ.com TheJournal all lowercase to subscribe now.

[Alex Osola]

President Trump's threats around Greenland rattle European leaders and US Markets.

[Hannah Aaron Lange]

This reintroduces the possibility that the president could levy tariffs against any country any way at any time. And I think that has spooked a lot of investors.

[Alex Osola]

Plus, a new AI coding tool is making developers excited, but also nervous. And Netflix says that revenue and profit grew in its latest quarter as subscriptions topped 325 million. It's Tuesday, January 20th. I'm Alex Osola for the Wall Street Journal. This is the PM edition of what's News, the top headlines and business stories that move the world today. President Trump's threat of tariffs on European allies as part of his effort to get his way over Greenland is causing strong reactions from European leaders. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, said today that Greenland's sovereignty was, quote, non negotiable. First principle, full solidarity with Greenland and the kingdom of Denmark. The sovereignty and integrity of that territory is non negotiable. She warned of a, quote, dangerous downward spiral in the transatlantic partnership. Meanwhile, Greenland's prime minister said that the island must be ready for the US to resort to military force. And one of Germany's highest ranking military officers warned that the rift between the US And Europe is making NATO vulnerable to a Russian attack. The rift could also come with economic consequences if President Trump does implement the tariffs. Some $100 billion worth of American exports like Boeing planes and bourbon whiskey could get caught in the crossfire if the EU retaliates. EU officials say they are prioritizing dialogue with the Trump administration to avoid escalating the situation. Speaking at the White House this afternoon, President Trump didn't back off his desire to acquire Greenland. He he expressed confidence that he could reach a deal, saying that he has a lot of meetings scheduled in Davos on Greenland and, quote, I think things are going to work out pretty well. Also in that press conference, how far.

[Ryan Knudson]

Are you willing to go to acquire Greenland?

[Alex Osola]

You'll find out. President Trump is expected to head soon to Davos, where he's scheduled to speak tomorrow. Trump's comments roiled US markets. Major indexes fell sharply with the Nasdaq tumbling 2.4% the S&P dropping 2.1% and the Dow losing 1.8%. The S&P is now down 0.7% year to date, the first time in 2026 that the index is down for the year. And silver and gold futures hit new records as investors sought safe haven trades. WSJ markets reporter Hannah Aaron Lange says, we've seen this before.

[Hannah Aaron Lange]

Basically what we're seeing is a smaller scale version of the dynamic that we saw take place last April when Trump initially unveiled his first round of tariff plans. We're seeing that kind of sell America trade dynamic take shape a little bit. It almost feels like tariffs is kind of a trigger word on Wall Street. As one of my sources put it to me today, this recent development with Trump and his rhetoric about Greenland and fresh tariff threats against European trading partners reintroduces the possibility that the president could levy tariffs against any country any way at any time. And this has just sparked some renewed trade war fears on Wall street and unsettled folks about what could lie ahead in 2026.

[Alex Osola]

In other news, foreign leaders are responding with caution to an invitation to join President Trump's Board of Peace. While the group was established by Trump to support the reconstruction of Gaza, it now has a broader mission to mediate global conflicts. And in remarks at the White House this afternoon, the president cast the Board of Peace as an alternative to the United Nations. It would carry a $1 billion fee for governments with a permanent seat as members. Around 60 governments have received invitations to join the board. And while the leaders of nations, including Belarus, Hungary and Morocco have said they'll join, some, such as the United Kingdom and Russia, are still deliberating. Others, like France, plan to decline. Coming up, Silicon Valley gets Claude Pilled and do super sized CEO pay packages guarantee super results. That's after the break. Hi, this is Gunjan Banerjee and this is Telus Demos. We're reporters at the Wall Street Journal and The hosts of WSJ's take on the Week. Take on the Week is a weekly show that gives listeners a leg up in the world of markets and investing. From the Fed's moves to market bubbles, we dive into the biggest deals, key players and business news ahead. If you're looking for more news and tools that can help you navigate the markets, consider becoming a subscriber to the Wall street journal. Visit subscribe.WSJ.com takeontheweek to subscrib. There's a new tool taking the AI world by storm. It's called Claude Code, made by the Company Anthropic developers are using it to complete complex projects much faster. And non engineers are posting on social media about building their first software program without learning a lick of code. Even in an age with an abundance of powerful AI tools, Claude has got people buzzing. Brad Olson covers technology for the Journal and is here to tell us why. Brad, it's not new exactly that tech companies are using code writing AI in their workflows. What's different about what Claude code can do? Why are engineers so excited?

[Bradley Olson]

So Claude code has existed for a while and it's something that can write software for any software engineer and people were always impressed with it. And then in November, Anthropic releases the most updated model of Claude Opus 4.5. A lot of coders and software engineers are just blown away. Like they just are starting to say, I can't believe that I just told it what to do. And then it produced kind of the workload that I might have done myself in a fairly limited period of time. All these software engineers are talking about it and then people who aren't coders start to download it. And not only do they try it for coding and making websites and apps and stuff like that, they they also just start using it to do data analysis and other kinds of tasks. And so it's like an awakening of capability that some people are comparing to the moment when ChatGPT was released.

[Alex Osola]

In your story you write that developers and other users are, yes, very excited about Claude Code, but they're also kind of freaked out. Why is that?

[Bradley Olson]

One startup executive said, I've been doing this since middle school. And it's just completely shocks me. You know, the person went to Brown Ivy League education and has an expertise that he's built up over his entire life to see a software program kind of fully automate that or come very close to automating. That was just deeply shocking to him.

[Alex Osola]

And are people worried about how this might affect companies hiring decisions?

[Bradley Olson]

Obviously these capabilities are extraordinary, but it's hard to know exactly how companies will respond. You know, do they lay off developers or do they try to get their developers to be 10 times more productive with these tools? We don't know. And every individual company is making its own decisions.

[Alex Osola]

Anthropic, which makes cloud code, is expected to go public this year. What does the tool's success mean for Anthropic's future?

[Bradley Olson]

They have focused on enterprise and business and so they have what they believe is a path to profitability success among enterprise users. And then having people talking about how they're using this stuff is part of that and I think will help offer some momentum.

[Alex Osola]

That was WSJ Deputy tech bureau Chief Bradley Olson. Thanks Brad.

[Bradley Olson]

Thank you.

[Alex Osola]

The latest on the possible sale of Warner Brothers Discovery Netflix has struck a new all cash deal to buy Warner's studios and HBO Max streaming business. This replaces its previous cash and stock deal and is still valued at $72 billion. That could convince some shareholders to choose the Netflix bid over Paramount's all cash hostile offer of $77.9 billion for all of Warner. Warner and Netflix say they expect Warner shareholders should be able to vote on the deal by April. Meanwhile, Netflix reported increased revenue and profit in its fourth quarter compared with the year before. Its results topped analyst expectations. Popular series such as the final season of Stranger Things boosted viewership of the company's originals and subscriptions topped 325 million. For more on Netflix's earnings, check out WSJ.com does big pay for CEOs mean big returns for their employers? Dozens of companies such as kkr, Rivian, Roblox and Robinhood have bet on it, hammering out $100 million plus moonshot pay packages with their chiefs in recent years. But it's looking like promising CEOs. Moon hasn't always been a great way to get out of this world. Results. Teo Francis covers corporate news and executive compensation at the Journal. Teo it seems like all this kind of stems back to that Elon Musk pay package from 2018, the billions of dollars in stock options that Tesla offered him. What kind of precedent did that set for some of these other companies?

[Ryan Knudson]

I think that really sparked this trend. I mean, it was after that that a number of other companies came in with really similar structures. What really distinguishes these is that they're valued really highly to begin with, but they have the potential to really balloon. And that's because they're tied to performance targets for the company. Often these are stock price or market capitalization targets. So it's a combination of a big award, a longer time period. Often these are 5 to 10 years in duration and then also this potential through these performance targets to really get a lot bigger.

[Alex Osola]

So the companies that I rattled off in the intro, kkr, Rivian, Roblox, Robinhood, these are not the biggest of the big companies, like maybe not the ones I would have expected to be offering these hundred million dollar pay packages to their CEOs. What do these companies have in common?

[Ryan Knudson]

Some of these are startups and one of the things that startups have is a lot of Leeway from investors in setting pay packages. And founders also often have bigger or more unusual pay packages. We're talking about a relatively small number of companies. Over this two year period, there were about 20 companies that adopted this kind of nine figure swing for the fences pay package.

[Alex Osola]

Fair enough. And this new analysis by the compensation data firm Equilar looked at just two years, 2020 and 2021. How many of the CEOs of those 20 companies actually hit the goals that were laid out for them and how many just gave up on those goals completely?

[Ryan Knudson]

It's a mixed bag because you can't just point to one set of results. Right. You have about 10 of these companies where we don't really get an answer. That is, the executive either stepped down from the CEO role or the company was acquired or in one case, the company went bankrupt. So there's four CEOs at three companies. KKR has co CEOs that have completed their contracts. Those four CEOs hit all the targets. The contracts have paid out, essentially.

[Alex Osola]

So for the companies that did have these big pay packages for their CEOs, how did the companies actually do?

[Ryan Knudson]

Only about a quarter of them outperformed the S&P 500. If you look from the point at which the equity awards were made through December 5, or in the case of companies that were acquired through the acquisition. So if these moonshot pay packages are supposed to spur CEOs to drive their companies to greater heights, it's not clear that that worked in most of these cases.

[Alex Osola]

That was WSJ special writer Teo Francis. Thanks, Teo.

[Ryan Knudson]

Thank you.

[Alex Osola]

And that's what's news for this Tuesday afternoon. Today's show is produced by Pierre Bienname with supervising producer Tali Arbel. I'm Alex Osola for the Wall Street Journal. We'll be back with a new show tomorrow morning. Thanks for listening.

[Ryan Knudson]

Sam.