U.S. Gas Prices Top $4 a Gallon

Summary

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Podcast Summary: WSJ What’s News – "U.S. Gas Prices Top $4 a Gallon"

Date: March 31, 2026 | Host: Luke Vargas | Podcast: WSJ What’s News

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Episode Overview

This episode focuses on the impact of the Iran war on global markets, most notably the spike in U.S. gasoline prices over $4 a gallon. The episode also covers tax policy shifts, new conflicting nutrition advice, the unveiling of President Trump’s presidential library design, and key movements in the bond market as investors seek safe havens amid mounting geopolitical and economic risks. Business headlines and a segment on Netflix’s growing NFL ambitions round out the briefing.

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Major Discussion Points & Key Insights

1. Gas Prices Surge Amid Mideast Conflict

• [00:51] U.S. gasoline prices have soared above $4 per gallon (up over $1 in a month), largely due to a Kuwaiti oil tanker being struck by a drone near Dubai and rising threats to key shipping routes.
• The price spike underscores how fragile global energy markets remain in the face of conflict—especially around the Strait of Hormuz, through which a critical share of the world’s oil passes.

Presidential Strategy on the Iran War & The Strait of Hormuz

• President Trump signals a willingness to end military operations against Iran without fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which may leave the waterway under Iranian influence in the short term.
• Caroline Levitt, White House Press Secretary [02:02]:

  “The objectives of Operation Epic Fury are as follows: Destroying the Iranian navy, destroying their ballistic missiles, dismantling their defense industrial infrastructure...and...preventing Iran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon. The full reopening of the Strait is something the administration is working towards. But the core objectives...have been clearly defined.”

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2. U.S. Domestic Policy: Washington State’s Millionaire Tax

• [02:47] Washington State will impose a new 9.9% state tax on incomes over $1 million starting 2028, as Democrats cite funding gaps left by federal program cuts.
• Governor Bob Ferguson [03:30]:

  “This is truly a historic step forward. Are rebalancing our tax code. It’s the right thing to do for Washington’s working families. It’s the right time to do it and it’s the right policy.”

• The policy deepens the divide between high-tax "blue" and low-tax "red" states. States like Mississippi and Oklahoma move towards eliminating income taxes, while South Carolina aims for a top rate under 2%.

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3. Conflicting Nutrition Advice

• [03:41] The American Heart Association recommends Americans shift to plant-based proteins, low-fat or fat-free dairy, and olive/canola oil—directly contradicting the Trump administration’s new guidelines emphasizing red meat and full-fat dairy.
• A cultural clash emerges over whose advice to follow, with RFK Jr. promoting the government’s pro-fat and meat stance.

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4. President Trump's Miami Presidential Library

• [04:44] Trump unveils ambitious plans for his presidential library—a gold-laden tower in downtown Miami, featuring escalators, a gold statue, and possibly a decommissioned Air Force One plane.
• The project is contentious: three-quarters of Miami voters oppose using city land valued at $67 million for the library.
• The library would be partly funded by proceeds from major lawsuits and seeks grassroots donations.

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5. Market & Economic Update: Bonds, Energy, and Inflation

• [07:02] 2026 began as a strong year but investor optimism has faded amid energy shocks from the Iran war, sending stocks toward their worst quarter in four years.

Q&A with WSJ Markets Reporter Sam Goldfarb

• The Bond Market’s Flip-Flop:
  • [07:56] Bonds briefly acted as a safe haven at war’s outbreak but quickly sold off, pushing 10-year Treasury yields up from below 4% to nearly 4.5%.
  • “For about 20 minutes after the Iran war started, bonds were a place where you could seek safety. ...Ever since then, they've been basically selling off.” – Sam Goldfarb [07:56]
• Inflation Fears:
  • [08:50] Energy prices are fueling worries that the Fed won’t cut rates—and might even hike them.
  • “People are basically worried that the Fed might not cut rates or even raise rates because energy prices have gone up.” – Sam Goldfarb [09:05]
  • At the start of the war, investors expected two Fed cuts in 2026; now, many see cuts as unlikely, and about a 30% chance of a rate increase.
• What’s Next?:
  • [10:10] Bond yields respond to “Hormuz hopes”—fluctuating with news of the war’s likely duration or resolution. Some investors expect bonds to rally again if recession fears become dominant.
  • “Sort of hopes that it'll end. I've seen it called Hormuz hopes...But investors keep on telling me this sort of psychology could change...” – Sam Goldfarb [10:10]

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6. Other Market & Business Headlines

• [10:50] China’s manufacturing PMI rebounds, signaling return to growth after the Lunar New Year. Rising global shipping costs due to the Iran war could pose risks, but China could regain global share if demand holds.
• CVS plans to open 60 locations in 2026, focusing on pharmacy-only storefronts to combat theft and compete with discount chains.
• Netflix:
  • Already broadcasts NFL Christmas games; now seeking a four-game package including Thanksgiving Eve and an international game, aiming to boost sports offerings and advertising revenue.
  • [12:22] Netflix is finishing a three-year, $75 million-per-game Christmas NFL deal; new rights are in competition with Amazon, YouTube, and others.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “This is truly a historic step forward. ...It’s the right time to do it and it’s the right policy.”
  – Governor Bob Ferguson, on Washington’s millionaire tax [03:30]

• “For about 20 minutes after the Iran war started, bonds were a place where you could seek safety. ...Ever since then, they've been basically selling off.”
  – Sam Goldfarb, on the bond market reaction [07:56]

• “Sort of hopes that it'll end. I've seen it called Hormuz hopes.”
  – Sam Goldfarb, on brief bond rallies amid peace rumors [10:10]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:51 – Gas prices rise, Iran war impact, and threat to Strait of Hormuz
• 02:02 – White House Press Secretary on war objectives and the Strait
• 02:47 – Washington State’s new millionaire tax and policy divide
• 03:41 – Contradictory nutrition guidelines
• 04:44 – Trump’s presidential library design and controversy
• 07:02 – Stock market slump, bond market update with Sam Goldfarb
• 10:50 – China’s PMI rebound; CVS and Netflix business updates

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Tone & Style

The episode maintains the Wall Street Journal’s straightforward, information-rich tone, blending hard news analysis with concise business briefings. Expert insight (notably from WSJ markets reporter Sam Goldfarb) adds depth and context for investors and business watchers.

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Summary prepared for listeners seeking a concise, comprehensive overview of the episode’s news, market analysis, and national policy developments.

Transcript

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[Luke Vargas]

President Trump weighs ending the Iran war without forcing a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Plus Washington State moves to tax millionaires as the blue state red state tax

[Bob Ferguson]

divide widens while Washington, D.C. is taking us backwards. The good news is here in Washington State, we're moving forward, everybody.

[Luke Vargas]

Yeah, yeah. And new diet advice from the American Heart association contradicts the government's recommendations on red meat and dairy. It's Tuesday, March 31st. I'm Luke Vargas for the Wall Street Journal, and here is the AM edition of what's news, the top headlines and business stories moving your world today. Us gasoline prices have crossed the $4 a gallon mark, according to AAA, and are now up more than a dollar compared to a month ago. That's after a Kuwaiti oil tanker was struck by a drone near Dubai. Over that market, analysts say, highlights the growing threats to key shipping routes. It also comes as we report that President Trump has told aides that he's willing to end the war against Iran without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a mission that he and his aides have assessed would push the conflict beyond his timeline of four to six weeks. Such an outcome could extend Tehran's grip on the waterway and leave the complex task of reopening it for a later date. Our Lindsey Ellis asked White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt how the Strait fits into President Trump's plans to square the

[Caroline Levitt]

four objectives laid out by the administration with the goal of reopening fully the Strait of Hormuz. Would President Trump declare victory and wind down military operations if the four objectives are met? But still, passage remains quite slow through the strait. Look, as I've said repeatedly, and as the president has laid out, the objectives of Operation Epic Fury are as follows. Destroying the Iranian navy, destroying their ballistic missiles, dismantling their defense industrial infrastructure that produces those weapons that have long threatened the United States and our allies and and then, of course, preventing Iran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon. The full reopening of the Strait is something the administration is working towards. But the core objectives of the operation have been clearly defined for the American people by the Commander in Chief.

[Luke Vargas]

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and joint chiefs chairman General Dan Kaine are set to brief reporters at 8am Eastern this morning, their first news conference on the war in almost two weeks. High earners in Washington state will face a new tax on income over $1 million starting in 2028. The 9.9% tax was signed into law yesterday and comes as a number of Democratic states debate similar measures, which proponents cite as necessary to combat inequality and to plug budget holes caused by President Trump's cuts to federal health and nutrition assistance programs. Here was Washington's Democratic Governor Bob Ferguson, courtesy of Fox 13 Seattle this is

[Bob Ferguson]

truly a historic step forward. Are rebalancing our tax code. It's the right thing to do for Washington's working families. It's the right time to do it and it's the right policy.

[Luke Vargas]

Republicans in Washington and beyond have warned that the tax could drive residents to move to lower tax states, of which there's an increasing number. Mississippi and Oklahoma are among those aiming to eliminate personal income taxes altogether, while South Carolina is on course to lower its top income tax rate to under 2% this year. Whose diet advice to trust Americans could be asking that question today after the American Heart association recommended getting protein from plants instead of meat, choosing low fat or fat free dairy and skipping butter and beef tallow in favor of olive, soybean and canola oil. That stands in sharp contrast with elements of new guidelines introduced by the Trump administration this year, which endorsed full fat dairy and specifically suggested that Americans eat red meat as a protein source. Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Has been pushing those guidelines on social media, including in this remix he shared of a South park episode about the food pyramid. What, sir, the pyramid is upside down. Turn the pyramid upside down. You can't be serious. That would put butter and fat at the top of Flip the damn food pyramid. AHA president and cardiologist Dr. Stacey Rosen said the government's encouragement to eat red meat and full fat dairy products could hurt people's health, and said that the AHA's new recommendations were based on decades of science. And President Trump has unveiled the design of his future presidential library. It's a tower in downtown Miami set to feature golden escalators, a gold statue of the president in what appears to be one of the planes used as Air Force One in the lobby. Construction of the complex will be partly funded by millions of dollars that Trump collected from lawsuits involving Disney's ABC News Meta platforms and Paramount, and he also directed his followers on Truth Social to a website, Solic donations. The new tower would be built on a parcel of land originally owned by Miami Dade College and sit next to the city's Freedom Tower, the site where thousands of Cuban refugees were processed in the 1960s. A poll conducted in October found that about three quarters of Miami voters said they were opposed to the land, which is valued at around $67 million, being used for the library. The project reveal comes as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis yesterday signed a bill allowing Palm Beach International Airport to be renamed after a move that will be finalized in July. Coming up, why bonds aren't proving to be the safe haven that many investors hope for, and Netflix looks to go big on its NFL coverage. Those stories and more after the break.

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[Luke Vargas]

2026 was shaping up to be a banner year for Wall Street. Just ahead of the new year, economic growth was accelera, the Federal Reserve appeared set to make further interest rate cuts, and markets had moved past fears of international trade disputes. And even when concern set in that the AI boom could drag down software stocks and cracks started to show in the private credit market, stocks kept on moving higher. But so much for that. Investors are now just hoping to avoid a global recession triggered by a historic run up in energy prices, with US Stocks on track to deliver their worst quarter in nearly four years. So where can investors find safety amid the war in Iran, as the Journal's Sam Goldfarb is here to discuss the answer, lately at least, has been not very many places. Sam, your latest reporting revolves around bonds. Tell us what's going on in bond markets.

[Sam Goldfarb]

So for about 20 minutes after the Iran war started, bonds were a place where you could seek safety. They rallied in a kind of traditional flight to safety move. But ever since then, they've been basically selling off. Yields on Treasuries rise when bond prices fall, so this sell off has pushed yields higher. The Yield on the 10 year treasury note, which is the most closely watched one, has risen close to 4.5% from being just a little bit under 4% right before the war started. It was kind of this milestone that that yield had fallen below 4%. And then just like that, the war started and they started rising. And it's important because treasury yields kind of set a floor on interest rates across the economy. And the 10 year treasury yield is very important for setting mortgage rates. So as yields go up, mortgage rates go up. Mortgage rates had also fallen to multi year low right before the war. Now they're back up to around 6.3% on average.

[Luke Vargas]

Yeah, yields very closely linked to interest rate expectations, as you mentioned. And another factor you write about is inflation fears. Those fears rising now because of energy prices in particular. And that's something that we know the Fed uses in its long term rate outlook.

[Sam Goldfarb]

So, yeah, I mean, people are basically worried that the Fed might not cut rates or even raise rates because energy prices have gone up. And often the Fed will look through energy price swings. When they're looking at inflation, there's always concerns that energy prices are what people pay and that if they're rising fast, they could feed into consumer expectations for inflation. And if everybody, investors, businesses, consumers, are feeling inflation, expecting it to be high in the future, that that actually can feed into actual inflation. And so that's the dynamic that the Fed is concerned about. But you also have these other measures of interest rate expectations, basically like interest rate futures. And they also show that from before the war, people are expecting about two interest rate cuts this year. Now they basically think that the Fed is likely to not raise rates at all and even have been pricing in as high as 30% of a chance that the Fed would raise rates this year.

[Luke Vargas]

And finally, Sam, as we've discussed, there's already been a lot of bond market movement in the first few weeks of the Iran war. What's going to determine the road ahead from here?

[Sam Goldfarb]

So far, signs that the war will continue have led to higher yields. Sort of hopes that it'll end. I've seen it called Hormuz hopes. When there's Hormuz hopes, bonds have rallied. But investors keep on telling me this sort of psychology could change, the analysis could change, and even if the war continues, that people could start worrying more about its impact on economic growth, which actually could be good for bonds and cause them to rally. And there are a lot of investors who are quite bullish on bonds right now and kind of expect them to rally eventually whether the war goes on or not.

[Luke Vargas]

That was Journal Markets reporter Sam Goldfarb in New York. Sam, thank you so much.

[Sam Goldfarb]

Yeah, thank you.

[Luke Vargas]

In Other market news Today A key gauge of China's sprawling manufacturing sector has returned to growth this month, fueled by a rebound in business activity following an extended Lunar New Year holiday which landed in February this year. This year, China's latest PMI data also showed a bounce back for both service and construction activity. While rising commodity prices and global freight costs because of the Iran war could risk a supply shock, economists suggest that should demand hold, China could once again expand its global market share, mirroring the manufacturing dominance that it saw in 2020. CVS is planning to open 60 new locations this year, including traditional storefronts, pharmacy only sites and outpost inside Target. The expansion follows years of downsizing, with the closure of more than 1,000 stores since the company announced plans to cut its retail footprint in 2021. The smaller pharmacy only storefront is one way that CVS says it can address a rise in theft and competition from discount retailers that have hurt national drugstore chains in recent years. And finally, Netflix already airs NFL games on Christmas on a Davidson football baby, but we are exclusively reporting that the streamer is now eyeing a four game NFL package, including a Thanksgiving Eve and international game, as it looks to attract subscribers and grow its advertising business. That comes as the league takes a flexible approach to selling the games, with Amazon, Google's, YouTube and other broadcast partners also expressing interest. Netflix is currently in the final year of a three year Christmas Day game package where it paid roughly $75 million per game. And that's it for what's news for this Tuesday morning. Today's show was produced by Hattie Moyer. Our supervising producer was Daniel Bock, and I'm Luke Vargas for the Wall Street Journal. We will be back tonight with a new show and until then, thanks for listening.

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[Luke Vargas]

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[Luke Vargas]

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