Wall Street Cheers Prospect of an End to the Iran War

Summary

WSJ What’s News (March 31, 2026)
Episode: Wall Street Cheers Prospect of an End to the Iran War

---

Episode Overview

This episode centers on the dramatic rally in U.S. stock markets following news that the Iran war may be nearing an end. Wall Street's response to shifting signals from Washington and Tehran, the broader economic repercussions of the conflict, and the eagerly awaited refunds from President Trump's now-invalidated tariffs are discussed. Other major business headlines include a merger between Unilever and McCormick, Oracle layoffs, JPMorgan's new initiative for small business, and the global impact of the Middle East conflict on helium supplies. The tone is brisk and analytical, with a focus on market-moving developments and global economic shifts.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Rebound: Hopes for End to Iran War

Segment Start: 01:18

• Stock Market Recovery: Stocks staged a major rally on news that President Trump is open to ending the conflict with Iran—without insisting on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
• Previous Slide: Q1 was the worst for major indexes in nearly four years, primarily due to the war's impact on global energy markets and dashed hopes for imminent Fed rate cuts.
• Quote:

  “What really dampened the mood on Wall Street was this war breaking out with Iran...But today we have hope that that conflict might come to an end soon. And investors really pounced on that.”
  — Hannah Aaron Lang, WSJ markets reporter (01:36)

• Energy Dominates Market: The only real winners during the turmoil have been energy stocks, especially oil and gas companies, and domestic firms less exposed to Middle East oil disruptions.
• Quote:

  “The other beneficiaries have been domestic US companies that could benefit from these issues with global commodity supply chains... US is less reliant on Middle East oil exports than competitors in Europe or in Asia.”
  — Hannah Aaron Lang (02:23)

Index & Commodity Performance

Segment Start: 03:36

• Biggest Rally Since May:
  • Nasdaq +3.8%
  • S&P +2.9%
  • Dow +2.5% (+1,100 points)
• Oil Price Spike:
  Brent crude up 63% in March, peaking at $104/barrel, the largest ever one-month gain.

---

2. Headline Business Moves

Unilever & McCormick Merger

Segment Start: 04:23

• Deal Value: $65B (cash and stock, including debt)
• Significance: Creates a sauces and spices powerhouse, combining Hellmann’s, McCormick’s spices, and French’s mustard.
• Leadership Quote:

  “When you think about food, we strongly believe flavor is the best place to be. It is the number one purchase driver across dishes, trends and occasions.”
  — McCormick CEO Brendan Foley (04:47)

Oracle Layoffs

Segment Start: 03:36

• Action: Thousands of roles cut in the US and India; exact numbers unconfirmed.
• Reason: Heavy investment in new data centers for AI.

JPMorgan American Dream Initiative

Segment Start: 05:08

• Highlights: Targets small businesses, affordable homeownership, and access to health care.
• Aims: Add three million small business customers, lend $80 billion over ten years.

---

3. Tariff Refund Uncertainty

Segment Start: 06:32

• Backdrop: The Supreme Court declared Trump-era global tariffs illegal. $166B in tariffs are now technically owed back to businesses.
• Timeline Trouble:
  • Best case: Refunds begin “some months” from now.
  • Worst case: “Many, many months”—potentially existential for some firms.
• Quote:

  “For some businesses, that is this existential question of whether they're able to remain open or not.”
  — Miriam Gottfried, WSJ reporter (00:44, repeated at 07:00) “They can't buy more inventory. That is the crunch point, really for them.”
  — Miriam Gottfried (08:06)

• Small Business Crisis: Smaller companies face a dilemma—lawsuits are costly, and it's unclear if not suing will delay refunds indefinitely. Big firms often sue to show activity to shareholders.
• Notable Numbers:
  • 330,000 importers of record, 53 million shipments, $166 billion affected.

---

4. Iran War: Status and Broader Economic Effects

Segment Start: 09:58

• Pentagon Update:
  • Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth: The coming days are “decisive.”
  • Quote:

    “Our adversary right now thinks there are 15 different ways we could come at them with boots on the ground, and guess what? There are.”
    — Pete Hegseth (10:18)

  • U.S. is keeping military options open for maximum unpredictability, while still hoping negotiations might succeed.
• "Negotiate with Bombs":
  • “The U.S. would, quote, negotiate with bombs until Iran makes a deal.” (10:38)
• Helium Shortage:
  • War cuts flow of helium (vital for AI chips, defense), as Qatar supplies a third of global helium.
  • Chipmakers and defense firms not hit yet, but supply cuts and surcharges loom.

---

5. Other Headlines

Segment Start: 11:30

• Cuba Fuel Shortage:
  • Russian tanker allowed to deliver 730,000 barrels of oil, ending a two-month blockade. Not a policy change; future shipments to be reviewed case-by-case.
• Trump’s White House Ballroom Halted:
  • Judge blocks $400M construction pending Congressional approval.
• Supreme Court on Conversion Therapy:
  • Colorado law banning therapy for minors sent back to lower court.
  • Justice Gorsuch: Law is viewpoint discrimination (majority).
  • Justice Jackson (dissent): States can regulate professionals to prevent harm.
  • 20+ other states have similar laws.

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On market mood:

  “Over the course of March, so much of these broader market moves have been just based on what US Officials are saying, what Iranian officials are saying.”
  — Hannah Aaron Lang (03:02)

• On tariff refund confusion:

  “Some small businesses are hearing advice that it’s not worth filing a lawsuit...you risk just clogging up the court.”
  — Miriam Gottfried (08:58)

• Pentagon’s unpredictability doctrine:

  “The point is to be unpredictable...if we needed to, we could execute those options on behalf of the president...or maybe we don’t have to use them at all.”
  — Pete Hegseth (10:18)

---

Key Timestamps

• 00:33–01:18 — Headlines introduction, market’s worst quarter in years
• 01:18–03:36 — Discussion: Iran war’s effect on markets, potential for peace, impact on companies
• 03:36–05:08 — Stock rally details, oil price spike, Oracle layoffs, Unilever & McCormick deal, JPMorgan initiative
• 06:32–09:48 — Tariff refunds: delays, small business struggles, legal strategies
• 09:58–10:38 — Hegseth on decisive war days, unpredictability, “negotiate with bombs”
• 10:38–12:28 — Helium shortage, Cuban oil shipment, US policy, SCOTUS decisions

---

Tone & Language
The speakers maintain a fast-paced, analytical, and direct tone. Reporting is factual but not without urgency—particularly around business uncertainty and the stakes of the Iran conflict.

---

Summary for First-Time Listeners

This episode provides a brisk yet thorough tour of a business world in flux: Wall Street is elated at the possibility of Middle East peace, but scars from the conflict linger in global supply chains and tariff refund chaos. Energy stocks have boomed, tech faces uncertainty amid helium shortages, and major corporate and policy moves continue apace. The bottom line: global politics are as decisive for markets as domestic economics, and unpredictability—both military and monetary—rules the day.

Transcript

[Miriam Gottfried]

So good, so good, so good.

[Nordstrom Rack Announcer]

New spring arrivals are at Nordstrom Rack stores. Now. Get ready to save big with up to 60% off rag and bone, Marc Jacobs, free people and more.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

How did I not know Rack has Adidas?

[Miriam Gottfried]

Cause there's always something new.

[Nordstrom Rack Announcer]

Join the Norty Club to unlock exclusive discounts. Shop new arrivals first and more. Plus, buy online and pick up at your favorite Rack store for free. Great brands, great prices. That's why you rack.

[Alex Osola]

The S and P and the Dow had their worst quarter in nearly four years. But today stocks rallied. We'll get into why. Plus, thousands of businesses have no idea when they'll get a refund of President Trump's tariffs.

[Miriam Gottfried]

It's very clear at this point that the best case scenario is still some months before refunds do start flowing. And for some businesses, that is this existential question of whether they're able to remain open or not.

[Alex Osola]

And Unilever and McCormick are combining their food businesses, creating a sauces and spices grocery giant. It's Tuesday, March 31st. I'm Alex Osola for the Wall Street Journal. This is the PM edition of what's news, the top headlines and business stories that move the world today.

[Imani Moiz]

Hey, I'm Imani Moiz, host of what's NEWS IN Markets. And I'm kicking off the show today. Stocks closed out the quarter today with a big rally, but even with that, it was still the worst quarter in nearly four years. WSJ markets reporter Hannah Aaron Lang joins me to break down how we got here. So, Hannah, when did the mood shift in markets and why?

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

What really dampened the mood on Wall street was this war breaking out with Iran. This posed a huge threat to global energy markets. Investors were really concerned with the price of oil and what this was all going to mean for economic growth writ large. But also interest rates. Investors had really felt pretty good about the fact that we were going to get interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. And that kind of totally disappeared as the conflict dragged on. And then today we have hope that that conflict might come to an end soon. And investors really pounced on that. President Donald Trump told aides that he's willing to maybe end the conflict without fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. So kind of an upbeat end on the final day of a pretty disappointing first quarter for markets.

[Imani Moiz]

What companies were benefiting from all that turmoil.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

So really the only winners of the stock market have been energy stocks. So your oil and gas companies, your energy ETFs, the other beneficiaries have been domestic US companies that could benefit from these issues with global commodity supply chains. So things like Dow Inc. Which is a plastic maker, investors are expecting it to have a more of a competitive edge against international companies, thanks to the fact that the US Is less reliant on Middle east oil exports than competitors in Europe or in Asia.

[Imani Moiz]

So what are going to be the key signals that investors are watching for in the days ahead?

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

Over the course of March, so much of these broader market moves have been just based on what US Officials are saying, what Iranian officials are saying. The past couple of weeks, investors were really quick to jump on good news. You're seeing that in the size of the rally today. In the coming days, what's really going to matter is whether we see progress in bringing the war to an end, restoring the flow of energy exports. If not, based on the conversations I've had with sources is that we might see this dial back relatively quickly.

[Alex Osola]

That was markets reporter Hannah Aaron Lang speaking with what's News and Markets host Imani Moiz. As you heard from Hannah, markets soared today. The three indexes all had their best day since May. The Nasdaq rose 3.8%. The S&P jumped 2.9% and and the Dow climbed more than 1,100 points, or 2.5%. And Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, surged 63% in March, the largest ever one month gain. In percentage terms, Brent recently traded around $104 a barrel. Oracle began laying off workers today. The full scope of the layoffs isn't clear, but some employees said internal metrics suggest thousands of rolls were eliminated. Jobs were cut in the US And India. Oracle declined to comment. The cloud computing and database company is investing heavily in new data centers to support AI turning to consumer goods. Unilever is combining its food business with McCormick to create a grocery goods giant in a cash and stock deal worth over $65 billion, including debt. For McCormick, a century old brand that started in its founder's Baltimore cellar, the deal represents its most ambitious expansion yet. McCormick CEO Brendan Foley said on an investor call this morning that the combined company's focus on flavor fit well with how consumers eat today. When you think about food, we strongly believe flavor is the best place to be. It is the number one purchase driver across dishes, trends and occasions. The condiments company is expected to bring in about $20 billion a year in revenue. It includes household names like Hellman's mayonnaise, McCormick's red capped bottled Spices and French's Yellow mustard. And today JPMorgan Chase announced the American Dream Initiative. It means support for small businesses, homeownership and access to health care. CEO Jamie Dimon says those are crucial for the well being of Americans. There's not a lot of details to the plan, but we know that JP Morgan plans to add 3 million new small business customers on top of the 7 million it already has today and wants to lend them up to $80 billion over the next decade. Coming up, small businesses are in crisis as they wait for tariff refunds and how the Middle east conflict is limiting the flow of helium, a gas crucial for making computer chips and weapons. That's after the break.

[Charles Schwab Announcer]

Trading at Schwab is now powered by Ameritrade Unlocking the power of thinkorswim, the award winning trading platforms loaded with features that let you dive deeper into the market. Visualize your trades in a new light on thinkorswim desktop with robust charting and analysis tools, all while you uncover new opportunities with up to the minute market news and insights. ThinkOrSwim is available on desktop, web and mobile to meet you where you are. It's built by the trading obsessed to help you trade brilliantly. Learn [e-mail] trading.

[Alex Osola]

Since the Supreme Court ruled that President Trump's global tariffs were illegal, companies of every size are wrestling with when and how and even if they'll get their money back. The federal government collected about $166 billion in those tariffs. A long delay in getting that money back could mean bankruptcy for some businesses. For more on what these refunds mean for businesses, I'm joined by WSJ legal affairs reporter Louise Radnofsky. Louise, what is the best case scenario for tariff refunds for these businesses?

[Miriam Gottfried]

And the supreme court ruled on February 20 that the tariffs were invalid. I think for for many people there was an expectation that the tariff refunds could start flowing immediately, days or weeks. That is not going to happen. It's very clear at this point that the best case scenario is still some months before refunds do start flowing. And for some businesses, that is this existential question of whether they're able to remain open or not.

[Alex Osola]

So if that's the best case, then what's the worst case?

[Miriam Gottfried]

A worst case scenario might be many, many months. And for some businesses, the uncertainty is also part of the problem. They cannot really work out how to keep going if they don't know how long they would have to keep going for. There's also some anxiety about the amount of work that businesses have to do in order to claim the refund whether or not they should be suing the government in order to get it faster, whether they'll even get the refund if they don't sue for it. The government had represented in court that it could repay the money if the courts ultimately did struck down the tariffs. And now it is proving to be quite difficult to do so, at least in a quick way.

[Alex Osola]

So what is the mood among some business owners that you spoke to?

[Miriam Gottfried]

One of the companies we spoke to for the story, Endless Pens, is having a cash flow Crisis. They paid $175,000 in tariffs and they're waiting for that money to come back. And without it, they can't buy more inventory. And that is the crunch point, really for them. They anticipate having about three or four months that they can keep going before reaching a really tough decision moment. They are one of the companies that is not suing in part because the idea of spending thousands of dollars to get money, maybe in time for it to be a benefit to them, doesn't seem like a worthwhile proposition.

[Alex Osola]

Right. Let's talk about that, because lots of businesses have chosen to go that route. Costco, cvs, Nintendo, and Pandora Jewelry are some of the companies that have sued for their refunds. But you're reporting that Most of the 3,000 or so suits that have been filed with the Court of International Trade are from smaller businesses. What is the strategy there?

[Miriam Gottfried]

There are 330,000 importers of record who paid tariffs on 53 million shipments for this total of $166 billion. The scale of this is really without precedent. Some small businesses are hearing advice that it's not worth filing a lawsuit at this point, that you risk just clogging up the court. For big businesses, the calculus was slightly different. They generally did not urgently need their tariff refund, but for some, there was a sense that they need to be showing their shareholders or their suppliers that they were doing everything that they could in order to get it. They had to weigh that against the political calculation about the risks of suing the United States government. We saw different companies who are very similar in some ways take very different strategies here.

[Alex Osola]

That was WSJ legal affairs reporter Louise Radnofsky. Thanks, Louise.

[Miriam Gottfried]

Thank you for having me.

[Alex Osola]

On Iran Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the coming days of the conflict would be decisive. He also said that the number of projectiles launched by Iran in the past 24 hours are the lowest so far in the war. Speaking at his first press conference in two weeks this morning, Hegseth answered a reporter's question about what he would tell Americans who are worried about boots on the ground in Iran.

[Pete Hegseth]

Our adversary right now thinks there are 15 different ways we could come at them with boots, boots on the ground, and guess what? There are. So if we needed to, we could execute those options on behalf of the president of the United States and this department. Or maybe we don't have to use them at all. Maybe negotiations work, or maybe there's a different approach. The point is to be unpredictable in

[Alex Osola]

that Hegseth said the U.S. would, quote, negotiate with bombs until Iran makes a deal. The war is cutting deeply into the global supply of helium. It's a byproduct of natural gas, and about a third of the world's supply comes from Qatar. Helium is probably best known for inflating party balloons, but it's actually essential for cooling machines like the ones that make AI chips and military drone components. Though chip makers and defense manufacturers won't immediately feel the shortage, suppliers are already telling some customers to expect supply cuts and surcharges. Turning to Cuba, a Russian tanker carrying 730,000 barrels of oil docked there today. President Trump's decision to allow the shipment effectively breaks a two month blockade. A lack of oil has led to widespread fuel shortages and power outages in Cuba, but it doesn't represent a policy change. The Trump administration says it's deciding on a case by case basis whether to let more oil through. A federal Judge in Washington, D.C. has blocked construction of President Trump's White House ballroom. He ordered that work stop unless Congress approves the $400 million project. And today, the Supreme Court decided 8 to 1 to revive a challenge to a Colorado law that banned conversion therapy for minors. The court says the law violates the First Amendment and should be looked at again by a lower court. Writing for the majority, Justice Neil Gorsuch stated that the law censors speech based on viewpoint. That's because it allows counseling that supports gender transition while banning therapy that tries to help kids reject the experience of being transgender. Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson was the lone dissent. She argues that states have broad authority to regulate licensed professionals to prevent psychological harm. More than 20 other states have similar laws, and that's what's news for this Tuesday afternoon. Today's show is produced by Alexis Green, Imani Moise and Pierre Bienname, with supervising producer Tali Arbel. Additional sound courtesy of S and P Global Market Intelligence. And I'm Alex Osoleff for the Wall Street Journal. We'll be back with a new show tomorrow morning. Thanks for listening.

[Miriam Gottfried]

Hey, this is Telus Demos and I'm Miriam Gottfried. We're reporters at the Wall Street Journal

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

and The hosts of WSJ's take on the Week.

[Miriam Gottfried]

It's a weekly show that gives listeners a leg up in the world of markets and investing. From the Fed's moves to market bubbles, we dive into the biggest deals, key players, and business news ahead. If you're looking for and tools that you can use to help navigate the

[Alex Osola]

markets, consider becoming a subscriber to the Wall street journal.

[Miriam Gottfried]

Visit subscribe.WSJ.com takeontheweek. To subscribe now.