Warsh Faces First Big Test at Fed

Summary

WSJ What's News — "Warsh Faces First Big Test at Fed"

Date: June 17, 2026
Host: The Wall Street Journal

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Episode Overview

This episode centers on the highly anticipated first Federal Reserve interest rate decision under new chairman Kevin Warsh. The episode dives into Warsh's philosophy on Fed transparency and the difficult situation he faces as political and economic pressures collide. Additionally, the episode covers notable primary election results, an alleged security plot at the White House, an anti-fraud campaign targeting state unemployment programs, the rise of a Chinese social media app's IPO ambitions, financial market news, and an unexpectedly passionate segment about the endangered British condiment, Gentleman’s Relish.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Kevin Warsh’s First Fed Rate Decision

• The Moment:

  • Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh faces his first crucial interest rate decision, with heightened market scrutiny. Warsh prefers less Fed communication and more focus on hard data, contrasting with recent practice.
    • "All eyes are on Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh ahead of his first interest rate decision today, though he'd prefer that they weren't." — B (00:33)

• Warsh’s Communication Philosophy:

  • Warsh has long argued that the Fed talks too much, preferring fewer speeches and less future guidance. He is particularly skeptical about publishing the Fed’s “dot plot,” which reveals interest rate projections.
    • "Kevin Warsh has been clear for years that he thinks the Fed talks too much and he wants a central bank that explains itself less. Fewer speeches, less guidance." — C (01:25)
    • "Warsh's instinct is to keep his options open and not commit to a path." — C (01:46)

• Tensions and Stakes:

  • Markets crave clarity, yet Warsh may withhold it by limiting forward guidance. The main question is not just the rate move but whether he pulls back from established Fed communication.
  • Warsh faces conflicting pressures: the Trump administration wants lower rates, but the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is opposed, especially with inflation near 4%.
    • "The data and his own committee are pulling one way. The president who appointed him is pulling the other. He's not going to cut interest rates into 4% inflation just because the president wants it. No serious central banker can do that and keep their credibility." — C (02:26)

• Looking Ahead:

  • The Journal's Nick Timiraos stresses that the real intrigue is how far the Fed might go toward raising rates, not just whether a cut happens.

• Important Timestamp:

  • [02:19]: The analysis of internal and political pressure on Warsh, and the challenge of maintaining Fed credibility.

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2. 2026 Primary Election Highlights

• Georgia Senate GOP Runoff:

  • Trump-endorsed businessman Mike Collins wins, setting up a Senate battle against Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff.
    • "We need more business people in Washington." — Mike Collins (03:34)
    • "And that's exactly what I've done in the two short years I've been up there." — Mike Collins (03:40)

• Gubernatorial and Mayoral Races:

  • Billionaire Rick Johnson defeats Trump-backed Burt Jones in the Georgia GOP governor primary; Johnson to face Atlanta’s mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms.
  • In Washington, D.C., Janice Lewis George leads in a crowded Democratic mayoral primary. President Trump signals willingness to consider federal intervention if she becomes mayor.

• Important Timestamp:

  • [03:04 – 04:54]: Run-through of primary results, candidate statements, and context for upcoming battleground races.

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3. White House UFC Security Plot

• Incident:

  • Federal prosecutors charge five suspects for plotting an attack on last Sunday's UFC event at the White House, allegedly intending to use explosive-laden drones and cause mass panic.
  • Vice President J.D. Vance downplays the plot but condemns the rise in political violence and credits law enforcement for quick action.
    • "And it turns out the plot was like not that advanced. They weren't in town. They had not really done that much planning...The political violence and rhetoric in this country is completely out of control. But thank God we've got good law enforcement, good FBI..." — J.D. Vance (04:54)

• Important Timestamp:

  • [04:54 – 05:14]: Vance’s response and incident details.

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4. Trump Administration’s Federal Anti-Fraud Campaign

• The administration warns all 50 states: comply with a new anti-fraud campaign at the risk of losing funding for unemployment benefits, a response to pandemic-era fraud concerns.
• This follows a similar federal warning to Medicaid programs.
• Note: Segment delivered as exclusive reporting by WSJ.
• Important Timestamp: [05:14 – 05:59]

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5. Markets and Business News

• Chinese Social Media IPO:
  • Red (Chao Hongshu), called "the Chinese Instagram," plans a Hong Kong IPO, aiming for a $70 billion valuation and 400 million monthly users.
• European Auto Stocks:
  • BMW’s profits plunge due to the Chinese market slump and the Iran war’s ripple effects, leading to stock declines and a cost-cutting campaign.
• Convertible Bonds Boom:
  • U.S. Companies raise $54 billion so far in 2026 via convertible bonds, a 43% year-on-year increase.
• Important Timestamps: [06:33 – 07:55]

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6. A British Culinary Crisis: The Endangered Gentleman’s Relish

• Background:

  • Gentleman’s relish, a 200-year-old anchovy paste beloved by the British elite, may cease production due to falling demand.
    • "Gentleman's relish is a bit of a mystery. To the uninitiated. It's mostly anchovies mixed up with a similar proportion of butter and a blend of various spices and herbs..." — James Hookway (08:06)

• Reaction:

  • The elite mourn its loss, The Spectator magazine seeks investors to rescue the product. Parent company AB Foods reports outside interest in saving the brand.
    • "There's been a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth over this amongst the people who are kind of used to having it on hand..." — James Hookway (08:44)

• Staff Taste Test:

  • The news team attempts a homemade version, sharing their opinions live on air:
    • "I will say that's it for what's news for this Wednesday morning. Today's show was produced by Daniel Bachelor. Vegetarian. Opting out. Daniel." — D (09:18)
    • "I'm out. Yeah." — C (09:55)
    • "This is surprisingly Christmassy and fishy." — F (10:05)
    • "I like the subtle taste. Fishy, but I don't get the Christmas angle." — B (10:28)
    • "It's fishy and salty, but I can get behind it. Don't know when I would eat this, like, ever." — F (10:32)

• Important Timestamp: [08:06 – 10:38] (Segment includes British relish background and tasting reactions.)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Nick Timiraos, on Warsh and credibility:
  "He's not going to cut interest rates into 4% inflation just because the president wants it. No serious central banker can do that and keep their credibility." (02:26)
• J.D. Vance, on failed security plot:
  "The political violence and rhetoric in this country is completely out of control. But thank God we've got good law enforcement, good FBI, because it didn't even get close to the point of execution." (04:54)
• James Hookway, on Gentleman’s Relish:
  "Anchovies mixed up with a similar proportion of butter and a blend of various spices and herbs...preferred, profoundly popular amongst the British ruling elite for nearly 200 years now." (08:06)
• Staffer F, on homemade relish:
  "This is surprisingly Christmassy and fishy." (10:05)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Fed Chair Warsh’s first big test: 00:33–03:04
• Primary election results: 03:04–04:54
• White House UFC plot: 04:54–05:14
• Federal anti-fraud warning: 05:14–05:59
• Markets/business news: 06:33–07:55
• Gentleman’s Relish crisis/taste test: 08:06–10:38

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Tone & Language

The episode maintains the brisk, urgent, and informative tone characteristic of WSJ’s news coverage, offering both serious analysis (especially on the Fed, politics, and markets) and lighter, more playful commentary in the food segment. Speaker attributions are in line with the fast-paced, clipped delivery typical of news radio.

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This summary provides a comprehensive and engaging look at all the substantive content in the episode, ideal for listeners who want to quickly catch up on the day's top news and conversations.

Transcript

[A]

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[B]

All eyes are on Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh ahead of his first interest rate decision today, though he'd prefer that they weren't.

[C]

His view is that the Fed has trained markets to hang on its every word and he'd rather it say less and let the economic data do the talking.

[B]

Plus, the Trump administration expands its anti fraud campaign to state unemployment programs coast to coast. And we'll take a bite of the only gentleman's relish we could get our hands on. It's Wednesday, June 17th. I'm Lou Farkas for the Wall Street Journal and here is the AM edition of what's news, the top headlines and business stories moving your world. Today, It's Fed Day, and not just any Fed day, as new chairman Kevin Warsh prepares for his first rate decision and press conference.

[C]

Kevin Warsh has been clear for years that he thinks the Fed talks too much and he wants a central bank that explains itself less. Fewer speeches, less guidance.

[B]

That's our chief economics correspondent Nick Timoros, who told us that less guidance could mean not publishing the Federal Reserve's so called dot plot which maps out where rates are headed.

[C]

Warsh's instinct is to keep his options open and not commit to a path. The irony is that he's walking into a moment when markets are desperate for clarity and the tool that he's most skeptical of, the dot plot, could end up sending the louder signal of everything the Fed produces this week. So the thing I'm watching isn't just what the Fed does, it's how much Warsh is willing to explain about why and whether his first act as chair is to start pulling back the very guidance he's criticized.

[B]

Though Nick said the real tension here is whether Warsh will move to cut rates even though inflation is running near 4%.

[C]

The President chose Warsh, expecting lower interest rates, but the committee he's inheriting has moved the other way. They're making the case against raising rates. So Warsh is in a box. The data and his own committee are pulling one way. The president who appointed him is pulling the other he's not going to cut interest rates into 4% inflation just because the president wants it. No serious central banker can do that and keep their credibility. The more interesting question isn't even whether they cut, it's how far do Fed officials go this summer towards entertaining raising rates?

[B]

That was the Journal's Nick Timiros. The Fed's interest rate decision is due at 2pm Eastern, and you can check out WSJ.com for live coverage throughout the day. Well, turning to last night's primaries, Trump backed representative and trucking business entrepreneur Mike Collins has won a GOP Senate runoff in Georgia, teeing him up to take on incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff in the general election. Here was Collins celebrating the truth is, this is the truth.

[C]

We need more business people in Washington

[D]

who know how to get things done.

[B]

And that's exactly what I've done in

[D]

the two short years I've been up there.

[B]

The Collins Ossoff face off is set to be one of the country's key battleground races. And to learn how healthcare could be a deciding issue in that contest, check out the latest episode of what's News Sunday, which we've left a link to in our show notes. In another statewide race in Georgia, Trump's endorsement failed to deliver victory to Lt. Governor Burt Jones in a competitive GOP gubernatorial primary. Voters instead backed billionaire Rick Johnson, who will face off against Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms in November. And in Washington, D.C. janice Lewis George is leading the vote count in a crowded Democratic mayoral primary. As we said yesterday, President Trump has said he would consider a federal takeover of D.C. should the Progressive Democrat become mayor. Federal prosecutors have charged at least five people in connection with a plot to attack last Sunday's UFC cage fighting match at the White House. According to court records, the group had hoped to detonate explosive laden drones, causing a panic and then to shoot into the crowd as people fled. Speaking on Fox News, the five Vice President J.D. vance downplayed the risk posed to attendees and said that he and President Trump only learned about the plot yesterday.

[E]

And it turns out the plot was like not that advanced. They weren't in town. They had not really done that much planning. And so I get why people are so fascinated by it. I do think the political violence and rhetoric in this country is completely out of control. But thank God we've got good law enforcement, good FBI, because it didn't even get close to the point of execution.

[B]

The FBI learned about the alleged plot four days before the event after a tip off by a concerned mother. And we're exclusively reporting that the Trump administration is warning all 50 states to comply with a federal anti fraud campaign or risk losing funding for unemployment insurance benefits. The administration alleges that those benefits have become an easy fraud target in the aftermath of the pandemic. And the latest move follows a similar warning delivered to state Medicaid programs last month. Coming up, China's Instagram prepares for an ipo and we'll dig into the campaign to save a British continent favored by the elite for almost 200 years. Those stories and more after the break

[F]

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[B]

In Markets News Chinese social media app Chao Hongshu is aiming to IPO in Hong Kong as soon as this year, targeting a more than $70 billion valuation known as Red or RedNote. Internationally, the so called Chinese Instagram has more than 400 million monthly active user. That user base is mainly Chinese speaking, though the app captured a wave of American TikTok users early last year when TikTok faced a ban. In the US European auto shares fell this morning after BMW slashed its full year guidance on the back of worsening performance in the Chinese market and the knock on effects of the Iran war. BMW's stock slid more than 6%. The German automaker said it would now intensify and accelerate its cost cutting plans, which it said would become visible in the coming year. And as US Companies hunt for cash to fund their AI ambitions, many are turning to an obscure corner of the bond market. So far this year, US listed companies including CoreWeave and Microchip Technology have issued about $54 billion worth of convertible bonds, which investors can convert into stocks if the shares climb to a designated price. That is a 43% increase from the same period last year and the highest year to date volume since the start of the pandemic. And finally, as England prepares for its

[D]

first World cup match against Croatia later

[B]

tonight, our foreign news editor James Hookway reports that the British elite are up in arms as they race to save their favorite relish.

[G]

Well, gentleman's relish is a bit of a mystery. To the uninitiated. It's mostly anchovies mixed up with a similar proportion of butter and a blend of various spices and herbs added to it to kind of create this concoction that's been preferred, profoundly popular amongst the British ruling of elite for nearly 200 years now.

[D]

James says that the relish's popularity among the elite is part of its downfall,

[B]

with its manufacturer saying it could no longer justify producing the paste because the

[D]

market for it wasn't big enough, leaving

[B]

its admirers to take matters into their own hands.

[G]

There's been a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth over this amongst the people who are kind of used to having it on hand, and it's created a bit of a crisis in some circles. The Spectator magazine, they managed to get a hold of a small consignment and one of their editorials suggests that they're trying to facilitate discussions between interested investors who might be interested in taking on the brand. The company, AB Foods, says that there have been a number of approaches from outside parties about taking on the brand and continuing production of Gentleman's Relish.

[D]

Well, unable to track down an imitation of Gentleman's relish at Fortnum and Mason, yours truly decided to produce what I believe is a pretty convincing version of Gentleman's Relish. It's got butter and anchovies, of course. Good ones from Borough Market, I should say, plus ginger, cinnamon, breadcrumbs, other good stuff. And I have dragged both the podcast team and newsroom friends Natasha Dangoor and Ben Dummett into the studio here for a tasting as I read the credits. All right, everyone, dig in. And I will say that's it for what's news for this Wednesday morning. Today's show was produced by Daniel Bachelor. Vegetarian. Opting out. Daniel.

[C]

I'm out. Yeah.

[B]

And Hattie Moyer. Oh, I'm not sure I don't like anchovies. Our supervising producer.

[D]

This is not going well. Our supervising producer is Sandra Kilhoff.

[F]

This is surprisingly Christmassy and fishy.

[B]

Oh, that's good.

[D]

And I'm Luke Vargas for the Wall Street Journal. This is a long pause, but I really like that. And let me swallow quickly. Apologies to everyone with misophonia. We will be back with a brand new show tonight. Until then, hold your condiments close because who knows when they'll be tragically discontinued.

[B]

And thanks, as always, for listening.

[F]

Subtle.

[B]

I like the subtle taste. Fishy, but I don't get the Christmas angle. Yeah, it's.

[F]

It's fishy and salty, but I can get behind it. Don't know when I would eat this, like, ever.

[B]

I think it's pretty good.

[F]

I feel like it is.

[H]

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