What the Immigration Slowdown Means for the U.S. Labor Market

Summary

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WSJ What’s News

Episode: What the Immigration Slowdown Means for the U.S. Labor Market

Date: August 25, 2025
Host: Alex Osolev (The Wall Street Journal)

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Overview

This episode dives into three major business and policy stories, with a primary deep-dive on the historic slowdown in immigration and its impacts on the U.S. labor market. The WSJ team examines the causes, notable economic forecasts, and projected consequences of declining immigration rates—balancing expert perspectives on both short and long-term effects. Key interviews include tech policy insights on Silicon Valley’s AI lobbying, a real estate analysis on why Dillard’s is buying malls, and, central to the episode, a conversation with WSJ economics reporter Paul Kiernan about the labor landscape shaped by fewer new arrivals in the U.S.

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Key Segments and Insights

1. Silicon Valley Launches Pro-AI Super PACs

Featuring: Amrith Ramkumar, WSJ tech policy reporter
Timestamps: 00:31 – 03:31

• What’s Happening:
  Silicon Valley is investing over $100 million in a new network of political action committees (PACs), labeled "Leading the Future," to influence AI regulation ahead of the coming midterm elections.

• Notable Players:
  Andresen Horowitz, Greg Brockman (OpenAI co-founder), Ron Conway (legendary angel investor), Joe Lonsdale (co-founder of Palantir), among others (01:15).

• Motivation & Philosophy:
  “The unifying philosophy for this group is light touch AI regulation... They don't want total deregulation... they're very worried about a group of people they call AI doomers that want to impose really strict guardrails.” – Amrith Ramkumar [02:04]

• Political Context:
  Growing policy debate as “over a thousand bills proposed at the state level that have some tie to AI” (02:51). The PAC aligns with White House AI/crypto czar David Sacks, indicating mainstream tech policy influence.

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2. Dillard’s Buys a Mall as Traditional Retailers Pull Back

Featuring: Kate King, WSJ real estate reporter
Timestamps: 05:52 – 07:48

• Key Move:
  While department stores like JCPenney and Macy’s divest from mall property, Dillard’s acquires Longview Mall in Texas for $34M (05:52).

• Reasoning:

  • Price: Significant markdowns in mall value made it “kind of a bargain.”
  • Quality control: Dillard’s wanted to ensure the property is maintained, avoiding neglected infrastructure by absentee owners.

• State of the Mall Industry:
  “The mall industry is bifurcated... Top malls in the country are doing really well... Even 'Class B’ malls are doing quite well and seem to have staying power. Longview Mall would probably fit into this category.” – Kate King [07:00]

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3. Main Feature: Immigration Slowdown and the U.S. Labor Market

Featuring: Paul Kiernan, WSJ economics reporter
Timestamps: 09:08 – 11:17

Background

• The U.S. is seeing one of the most significant slowdowns in immigration in decades, transitioning “from one of the biggest waves in US history to almost none.” Jerome Powell notes this is resulting in a notably slower growth in the labor force.

Immigration Forecasts for 2025

• Immigration data is “notoriously difficult” to measure, but Paul Kiernan cites:
  • A recent American Enterprise Institute paper estimates net migration could be negative this year:
    “The midpoint of their estimate is negative 205,000, give or take a quarter million. That would be a dramatic shift.” – Paul Kiernan [09:38]
  • Wall Street economists predict weak but positive net migration: Goldman Sachs (+500,000), Barclays (lower positive number). All agree this is a “dramatic slowdown.”
  • Data “is messy and requires a bit of extrapolation.”

Short-Term Economic Effects

• “We’re already starting to see pretty strong evidence that the decline in inflows are starting to crimp growth in the labor supply and jobs.” [10:28]
• Specific industries most affected:
  • “A lot of these people are massively overrepresented in the workforces of certain industries—think about slaughterhouses, poultry plants, farms, especially construction.”

Long-Term Economic Effects

• “Less immigration just means slower economic growth, pressure on the federal deficit, because immigrants work at much higher rates than the native born population and they draw less from government benefits.” [10:28]
• Crucially: “Without immigration, US population growth starts to turn potentially negative in the next decade, and that carries a bunch of implications.” – Kiernan

Memorable Quote

• “In the long term, less immigration just means slower economic growth, pressure on the federal deficit... and without immigration, US population growth starts to turn potentially negative in the next decade...” – Paul Kiernan [10:28]

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Notable Quotes and Timed Attributions

• “The unifying philosophy for this group is light touch AI regulation... They’re very worried about a group of people they call AI doomers.” – Amrith Ramkumar [02:04]
• “The values of malls, especially older malls that haven’t had a lot of renovations... has fallen pretty dramatically in recent years, so at $34 million it was kind of a bargain.” – Kate King [05:52]
• “We’re already starting to see pretty strong evidence that the decline in [immigrant] inflows are starting to crimp growth in the labor supply and jobs.” – Paul Kiernan [10:28]
• “Without immigration, US population growth starts to turn potentially negative in the next decade, and that carries a bunch of implications.” – Paul Kiernan [10:28]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Silicon Valley and AI Super PACs: 00:31 – 03:31
• Dillard’s Mall Acquisition: 05:52 – 07:48
• Immigration and Labor Market: 09:08 – 11:17

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Conclusion

This episode delivers a data-rich, fact-based look at the interplay between immigration trends and the labor market, spotlighting short-term strains in key industries and profound long-term risks for U.S. economic growth and demographics. The reporting draws on insight from economists, tech industry leaders, and retail strategists, capturing the uncertainty and complexity facing policymakers and business leaders in a rapidly shifting economic landscape.

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Transcript

[Alex Osolev]

This episode is brought to you by american national insurance explore annuities at americannational dot com annuities.

[Host / Anchor]

Silicon valley is launching pro ai super pacs to defend the industry in the midterm elections plus what a historic slowdown in immigration means for the us job market a lot of.

[Paul Kiernan]

These people are massively overrepresented in the workforces of certain industries and so you stem that inflow you could start to see acute shortages in workers in some.

[Host / Anchor]

Industries and why dillard's bought a mall when most department stores are ditching them it's monday august twenty fifth i'm alex osolev for the wall street journal this is the pm edition of what's news the top headlines and business stories that move the world today we're exclusively reporting that silicon valley is putting more than one hundred million dollars into a network of political action committees and organizations the network is called leading the future and its goal is to advocate against strict artificial intelligence regulations for more i'm joined now by wsj tech policy reporter amrith ramkumar amrit what do we know about this super pac and who's involved in.

[Amrith Ramkumar]

It some of the biggest names in tech world are involved andreessen horowitz a huge venture capital firm that backs a bunch of ai and crypto startups greg brockman who's one of the founders of openai and one of their top executives and angel investor ron conway who's a legend in silicon valley but maybe not super well known in other circles the ai search engine perplexity and joe wansdale who's very influential in tech world he was a co founder of palantir who now runs a vc firm those are just some of the names there'll probably be more that come out in the coming months and it's just a big signal that silicon valley is getting off the sidelines and wanting to advocate for ai policy which is sort of a blank canvas and it's also a sign they're looking ahead to next year's midterm.

[Host / Anchor]

Elections as well what are they really going for what is the sort of.

[Amrith Ramkumar]

Unifying philosophy here the unifying philosophy for this group is light touch ai regulation they're very careful to say that they don't want total deregulation they're okay with some rules of the road but they're very worried about a group of people they call ai doomers that want to impose really strict guardrails and limitations on what you have to do if you operate a top ai model i would say that's the unifying force is like opposing those types of stringent regulations and guardrails and that other side has a well funded group of tech people as well who have been putting money into.

[Host / Anchor]

It we're already in the lead up to next year's midterms so what does the creation of this super pac show us about silicon valley's relationship with politics.

[Amrith Ramkumar]

It just shows that ai policies are coming quickly there have been over a thousand bills proposed at the state level that have some tie to ai a lot of those aren't being taken super seriously but but again the trend is happening and it's accelerating quickly and it is this combination of getting ready for the midterms but also wanting to help shape these policy discussions that are going to be happening and it is worth noting they generally seem to be aligning with white house ai and crypto czar david sachs so again it is part of this bigger picture back and forth so we might see some responses from the other side now too that there's this well funded group out there that.

[Host / Anchor]

Was wsj reporter amrith ramkumar thanks amrith.

[Amrith Ramkumar]

Thanks for having me.

[Host / Anchor]

Elon musk's artificial intelligence startup xai filed a lawsuit today against apple and openai alleging that they're illegally thwarting competition for ai companies the suit says that apple's partnership with openai makes the startup's chatgpt the only chatbot to be able to improve its model based on data from hundreds of millions of iphones the suit also says apple is deprioritizing the apps of competing chatbots in its app store rankings an apple spokesman didn't immediately respond to a request for comment apple has previously said the app store is designed to be free of bias and the company has defended the fairness of its partnership with openai an openai spokesman said that the suit is a continuation of musk's quote ongoing pattern of harassment musk has separately sued openai to try to prevent it from converting into a for profit company foreign major us indexes were lower today dimming a bit of the afterglow of friday's market rally the dow led the losses falling by about zero point eight percent the s and p five hundred dropped about zero point four percent and the nasdaq slipped about zero point two percent today president trump said that the administration's deal with chipmaker intel is a new way of doing industrial policy and signaled that more agreements could be ahead last week the government made a deal with intel in which it agreed to convert nearly nine billion dollars in grants into a ten percent stake in the company an administration official told the wall street journal last week that big chip companies like tsmc and micron receiving funds from the twenty twenty two chips act won't have to give up equity because they're investing more in the us smaller companies may be asked to let the government become a shareholder skeptics say these kinds of agreements represent the administration's excessive intervention in the private sector big department store chains from jcpenney to macy's are unloading their properties as fast as they can meanwhile dillard's is buying real estate this month the department store chain and a partner purchased the longview mall in texas about two hours east of dallas for about thirty four million dollars wsj real estate reporter kate king joins me now with more kate why did dillard's buy.

[Kate King]

This mall first and foremost the price was right the values of malls especially older malls that haven't had a lot of renovations or other upgrades to them in many years has fallen pretty dramatically in recent years so at thirty four million it was kind of a bargain and also this mall the longview mall is a longtime favorite of dillard's chief executive bill dillard they wanted to make sure that the new owner of this mall where they have a store was operated and owned by an owner who would really invest in the property there are some owners out there who have been buying malls in recent years and really not upgrading the properties letting things like parking lot sinkholes utility bills other types of maintenance and basic infrastructure issues go unaddressed and this has been a real source of stress for first and foremost the cities where those malls are located but also the retailers who operate in these malls and feel that the shopping experience has deteriorated there yeah let's.

[Host / Anchor]

Use this as kind of an opportunity to check in on the state of the mall industry what you're describing seems pretty grim but is that the common state of a mall in the us.

[Kate King]

These days well the mall industry is bifurcated in a way what we consider the top malls in the country are doing really well and so there's really no concern about the future of those malls but what we've seen in recent years is that even the kind of what we refer to as class b malls are doing quite well and seem to have staying power longview mall would probably fit into this category going back.

[Host / Anchor]

To dillard's for a second is buying malls a part of the company's strategy.

[Kate King]

Now dillard's declined to comment on whether it's going to be buying more real estate moving forward department stores really stopped being involved in the building or owning of malls according to one real estate consultant that i spoke with for the story it's been about thirty years since a department store has been involved in the development or ownership of a mall.

[Host / Anchor]

That was wsj reporter kate king thank you kate thank you coming up as immigration into the us drops to its lowest rate in decades does the economy stand to benefit or suffer more on that after the break.

[Alex Osolev]

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[Host / Anchor]

To hear fed chair jerome powell tell it the us labor market has entered a curious balance the demand for workers has cooled yet the unemployment rate has held steady because the supply of labor has slowly slowed abruptly behind that slowing in the labor supply is a dramatic swing in immigration from one of the biggest waves in us history to almost none economists say that could have a subtle but lasting effect paul kiernan covers the us economy for the wall street journal paul what are experts predicting will be the net immigration for the.

[Paul Kiernan]

Us this year measuring immigration flows to the us is just notoriously difficult but there is a group of economists who wrote a paper for the american enterprise institute a conservative think tank recently predicting that net migration that is the difference between people coming in and going out will actually be negative this year the midpoint of their estimate is negative two hundred five thousand give or take a quarter million that would be a dramatic shift a number of wall street economists predict positive net immigration much less than we've seen in recent years goldman sachs has a number positive five hundred thousand barclays is a little bit lower that's a dramatic slowdown but again the data is messy and it requires a bit of extrapolation so all of this begs.

[Host / Anchor]

The question what is the impact on the economy both in the short and.

[Paul Kiernan]

The long term so in the short term we're already starting to see pretty strong evidence that the decline in inflows are starting to crimp growth in the labor supply and jobs a lot of these people are massively overrepresented in the workforces of certain industries think about slaughterhouses poultry plants farms especially construction in the long term less immigration just means slower economic growth pressure on the federal deficit because immigrants work at much higher rates than the native born population they draw less from government benefits and the other kind of interesting thing is without immigration i think us population growth starts to turn potentially negative in the next decade and that carries a bunch of implications.

[Host / Anchor]

That was wall street journal reporter paul kiernan thanks paul thanks alex in other news a federal judge in maryland temporarily blocked the trump administration from attempting to redeport kilmar albergo garcia the man it had mistakenly sent to a megaprison in el salvador and then returned to the us and charged with human smuggling abrego garcia is facing removal to uganda a country with which he has no ties his lawyer said in a court filing that he had rejected a government deal in which he would have been deported to costa rica if he agreed to plead guilty to the human smuggling charges and israeli strikes on a hospital in southern gaza today killed at least twenty people including at least five journalists medical staff patients and rescue workers that's according to palestinian health authorities the strikes come amid rising international condemnation of israeli operations in the enclave and and as israel plans to expand the war in a new offensive in gaza city the israeli military said that its troops had carried out a strike in the area of nasser hospital and that the chief of staff had ordered an inquiry the office of israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu said israel quote deeply regrets the tragic mishap heads up before we go we've made a correction to the most recent episode of what's new sunday we incorrectly said that the average amount that american families spent on college this past year according to sallie mae was thirteen thousand eight hundred and thirty seven dollars it was actually thirty thousand eight hundred and thirty seven dollars and that's what's news for this monday afternoon today's show is produced by pierre bienname with supervising producer michael cosmides i'm alex osola for the wall street journal we'll be back with the new show tomorrow morning thanks.