WSJ What’s News

Episode: What the Immigration Slowdown Means for the U.S. Labor Market

Date: August 25, 2025
Host: Alex Osolev (The Wall Street Journal)

Overview

This episode dives into three major business and policy stories, with a primary deep-dive on the historic slowdown in immigration and its impacts on the U.S. labor market. The WSJ team examines the causes, notable economic forecasts, and projected consequences of declining immigration rates—balancing expert perspectives on both short and long-term effects. Key interviews include tech policy insights on Silicon Valley’s AI lobbying, a real estate analysis on why Dillard’s is buying malls, and, central to the episode, a conversation with WSJ economics reporter Paul Kiernan about the labor landscape shaped by fewer new arrivals in the U.S.

Key Segments and Insights

1. Silicon Valley Launches Pro-AI Super PACs

Featuring: Amrith Ramkumar, WSJ tech policy reporter
Timestamps: 00:31 – 03:31

• What’s Happening:
  Silicon Valley is investing over $100 million in a new network of political action committees (PACs), labeled "Leading the Future," to influence AI regulation ahead of the coming midterm elections.

• Notable Players:
  Andresen Horowitz, Greg Brockman (OpenAI co-founder), Ron Conway (legendary angel investor), Joe Lonsdale (co-founder of Palantir), among others (01:15).

• Motivation & Philosophy:
  “The unifying philosophy for this group is light touch AI regulation... They don't want total deregulation... they're very worried about a group of people they call AI doomers that want to impose really strict guardrails.” – Amrith Ramkumar [02:04]

• Political Context:
  Growing policy debate as “over a thousand bills proposed at the state level that have some tie to AI” (02:51). The PAC aligns with White House AI/crypto czar David Sacks, indicating mainstream tech policy influence.

2. Dillard’s Buys a Mall as Traditional Retailers Pull Back

Featuring: Kate King, WSJ real estate reporter
Timestamps: 05:52 – 07:48

• Key Move:
  While department stores like JCPenney and Macy’s divest from mall property, Dillard’s acquires Longview Mall in Texas for $34M (05:52).

• Reasoning:

  • Price: Significant markdowns in mall value made it “kind of a bargain.”
  • Quality control: Dillard’s wanted to ensure the property is maintained, avoiding neglected infrastructure by absentee owners.

• State of the Mall Industry:
  “The mall industry is bifurcated... Top malls in the country are doing really well... Even 'Class B’ malls are doing quite well and seem to have staying power. Longview Mall would probably fit into this category.” – Kate King [07:00]

3. Main Feature: Immigration Slowdown and the U.S. Labor Market

Featuring: Paul Kiernan, WSJ economics reporter
Timestamps: 09:08 – 11:17

Background

• The U.S. is seeing one of the most significant slowdowns in immigration in decades, transitioning “from one of the biggest waves in US history to almost none.” Jerome Powell notes this is resulting in a notably slower growth in the labor force.

Immigration Forecasts for 2025

• Immigration data is “notoriously difficult” to measure, but Paul Kiernan cites:
  • A recent American Enterprise Institute paper estimates net migration could be negative this year:
    “The midpoint of their estimate is negative 205,000, give or take a quarter million. That would be a dramatic shift.” – Paul Kiernan [09:38]
  • Wall Street economists predict weak but positive net migration: Goldman Sachs (+500,000), Barclays (lower positive number). All agree this is a “dramatic slowdown.”
  • Data “is messy and requires a bit of extrapolation.”

Short-Term Economic Effects

• “We’re already starting to see pretty strong evidence that the decline in inflows are starting to crimp growth in the labor supply and jobs.” [10:28]
• Specific industries most affected:
  • “A lot of these people are massively overrepresented in the workforces of certain industries—think about slaughterhouses, poultry plants, farms, especially construction.”

Long-Term Economic Effects

• “Less immigration just means slower economic growth, pressure on the federal deficit, because immigrants work at much higher rates than the native born population and they draw less from government benefits.” [10:28]
• Crucially: “Without immigration, US population growth starts to turn potentially negative in the next decade, and that carries a bunch of implications.” – Kiernan

Memorable Quote

• “In the long term, less immigration just means slower economic growth, pressure on the federal deficit... and without immigration, US population growth starts to turn potentially negative in the next decade...” – Paul Kiernan [10:28]

Notable Quotes and Timed Attributions

• “The unifying philosophy for this group is light touch AI regulation... They’re very worried about a group of people they call AI doomers.” – Amrith Ramkumar [02:04]
• “The values of malls, especially older malls that haven’t had a lot of renovations... has fallen pretty dramatically in recent years, so at $34 million it was kind of a bargain.” – Kate King [05:52]
• “We’re already starting to see pretty strong evidence that the decline in [immigrant] inflows are starting to crimp growth in the labor supply and jobs.” – Paul Kiernan [10:28]
• “Without immigration, US population growth starts to turn potentially negative in the next decade, and that carries a bunch of implications.” – Paul Kiernan [10:28]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Silicon Valley and AI Super PACs: 00:31 – 03:31
• Dillard’s Mall Acquisition: 05:52 – 07:48
• Immigration and Labor Market: 09:08 – 11:17

Conclusion

This episode delivers a data-rich, fact-based look at the interplay between immigration trends and the labor market, spotlighting short-term strains in key industries and profound long-term risks for U.S. economic growth and demographics. The reporting draws on insight from economists, tech industry leaders, and retail strategists, capturing the uncertainty and complexity facing policymakers and business leaders in a rapidly shifting economic landscape.