WSJ What’s News

Episode: What This Year’s Dealmaking Boom Means for 2026
Date: December 24, 2025
Host: Alex Osoloff / WSJ Anchor
Guest: Lauren Thomas, WSJ Lead Deals Reporter

Overview

This episode delves into the banner year for corporate mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in 2025, exploring the factors fueling the surge and what might shape dealmaking in 2026. The discussion covers the Trump administration’s influence on antitrust policy, changes in financing, and the competitive race among companies to strike major deals. The episode also features reporting on teenage AI entrepreneurs and touches on recent headline news in the business and geopolitical landscape.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. 2025: A Rollercoaster Year for Deals

• Rollercoaster Start and Finish: The year began with high optimism for dealmaking, but uncertainty around tariffs and a "trade war" in the spring led to a temporary pause. Momentum returned after Labor Day, with a strong finish to the year.
  • [04:58] Lauren Thomas:

    "It was a sort of roller coaster for deals this year. There was a lot of optimism that 2025 was going to be a blockbuster year for M and A. And then as we head into the spring, you have Liberation Day and just a lot of uncertainty in the market around tariffs. This trade war that kicked off and that put a lot of deals on pause. But then after Labor Day, a switch really flipped and M and A was was back."

2. Looser Antitrust Environment

• Trump Administration’s Impact: The U.S. government took a more hands-off approach to antitrust enforcement, paving the way for bigger, previously unimaginable mergers—especially in railways and other sectors.
  • [05:48] Lauren Thomas:

    "The Justice Department and the Federal Trade Commission just haven't been as strict as they were in previous administrations. ... One of the biggest deals of the year was this massive railroad merger. Union Pacific buying Norfolk Southern, that was a more than $70 billion deal ... just wouldn't have been feasible in prior administrations ... but seems like a much clearer pathway to close under Trump."

3. Drivers Behind the Dealmaking Surge

• Stock Market Confidence & Bandwagon Effects: Rising markets emboldened executives. Big, splashy deals tended to inspire further activity as companies feared being left behind.
• Private Credit Boom: New sources of financing, especially the rise of private credit and private equity funds flush with capital, enabled more deals without reliance on traditional banks.
• Interest Rate Drops: Lower interest rates specifically unlocked more private equity activity, freeing up capital for large and complex transactions.
  • [06:30] Lauren Thomas:

    "The money is just flowing much more freely now. The whole private equity universe, they had really been sitting on the sidelines. Now that you've started to see interest rates come down, that's particularly given this private equity group more confidence that they can go out and do deals and get those done."

4. Political Uncertainty—The Trump Factor

• Leadership’s Direct Role: CEOs are watching Trump's statements closely, as sudden policy shifts or social media comments can make or break a deal.
• America-First Narrative: Deals that align with Trump’s "making America strong" agenda are more likely to succeed.
  • [07:26] Lauren Thomas:

    "CEOs got more comfortable with Trump and the fact that Trump would be okay with your deal. And so on a moment's notice, that could change. And you've seen Trump will come out and post about a particular company. ... Certainly some of the deals in 2025 that have really been centered around America first, making America strong. It's deals like that ... that you can really craft a narrative around it to kind of match up with what Trump is trying to accomplish down in D.C. those I think have had the best odds of getting announced so far."

5. Big Deals & Breakups of 2025

• Highlighted Transactions:
  • BP’s sale of a 65% stake in Castrol Lubricants to Stone Peak ($8 billion valuation)
  • Sanofi’s acquisition of Dynavax Technologies ($2.2 billion)
  • Merger: Union Pacific with Norfolk Southern (over $70 billion)
  • Breakup: Kraft Heinz splitting into two companies

6. Young Founders & AI Startups

• Teenage Disruptors: A sidebar segment covers high-school-aged founders using AI to leapfrog traditional business hurdles.
  • [09:08] Alex Osoloff (on 15-year-old founder):

    "He’s using AI models to generate these [financial] reports. He has tens of thousands of monthly users."

• Venture Capital Challenges: Some investors hesitate due to concerns over the maturity and emotional readiness of young founders.
  • [09:48] Alex Osoloff:

    "[A partner at Google Ventures] started to think about, okay, if we're going to invest in this firm, I probably need to talk to the 17 year old's parents and have a conversation about is he emotionally prepared for some of the struggles that are going to be likely to come into his life."

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the political uncertainty of M&A under Trump
  • Lauren Thomas:

    "So there's kind of this red card of what is he going to say? What does he think? And so watching that as, as carefully and closely as we can will allow us to continue to have a pulse on just where the next big deals could be coming from."
    [07:26]

• On the impact of lower interest rates
  • Lauren Thomas:

    "...Now that you've started to see interest rates come down, that's particularly given this private equity group more confidence that they can go out and do deals and get those done."
    [06:30]

Timeline of Important Segments

• 00:23 – Introduction of dealmaking as a major theme and preview of political context
• 04:58 – Lauren Thomas discusses the rollercoaster shape of 2025 dealmaking
• 05:39 – 07:17 – Examination of looser antitrust, financing trends, and the ‘bandwagon’ effect
• 07:26 – Political dynamics and Trump’s direct impact on deals
• 09:08 – Insights into high-school founders in AI and their business impact
• 09:48 – Challenges investors face with teenage founders

Tone & Language

The episode is brisk and analytical, in classic Wall Street Journal style, punctuated by Lauren Thomas' practical, matter-of-fact commentary. Insights are provided with an eye toward both macroeconomic trends and on-the-ground realities faced by dealmakers and young entrepreneurs alike.

Summary for Listeners

This episode is essential listening for anyone seeking an up-to-date, plain-English briefing on the deals boom of 2025, the changing regulatory landscape, the interplay of politics and business, and the way novel sources of capital are transforming mergers and acquisitions. The brief diversion into AI-driven teenage startups offers a glimpse of the next generation’s ambitions and the evolving face of entrepreneurship.