What’s Actually Happening in the U.S. Jobs Market?

Summary

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WSJ What’s News: What’s Actually Happening in the U.S. Jobs Market?

Host: Luke Farkas, The Wall Street Journal
Guests: Justin Lehart (Economics Reporter, NY) and Lindsay Ellis (Workplace & Careers Reporter, DC)
Date: February 15, 2026

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Episode Overview

This Sunday edition of What’s News takes a deep dive into the current state of the U.S. labor market. With headlines about historic January layoffs, big business cutbacks, automation, and AI reshaping the workforce, public sentiment feels uneasy despite surprising job gains in some sectors. The episode explores whether the official data tells the whole story, why workers across generations are concerned, and how both job seekers and employers are adapting to rapid technological change.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Confusion and Contradiction in the Jobs Data

(00:18 – 03:00)

• January’s Surprising Numbers: U.S. added 130,000 jobs—more than double analyst expectations. Most new roles are in health care and social assistance, while government, warehousing, information, and financial services saw declines.
• Revision Shock: New data revisions reveal fewer jobs were created in the past two years than previously reported, contributing to public skepticism.
• Trust in Employment Numbers:
  • Justin Lehart (02:05):

    “The Bureau of Labor Statistics has not been as well funded as a lot of people would like… we are sort of more prone to measurement error… it can really throw you for a loop.”

• Survey Challenges: Both businesses and individuals are responding less to government surveys, making error and revision more likely.

2. Disconnection Between the Numbers and Lived Experience

(03:00 – 04:37)

• Lindsay Ellis: Many job seekers—especially in corporate roles—feel “totally stuck,” with actual opportunities not matching upbeat headlines.
  • Quote (03:00):

    “There is this massive disconnect between what they see publicly and their own day to day experience.”

• Growth in Healthcare/Social Services: Sectors seeing job growth don’t match the skill sets of many job seekers, particularly those in tech, finance, and professional services.

3. Older Workers Staying or Re-entering the Workforce

(04:08 – 05:59)

• Listener Observation: Older Americans increasingly hold service roles, from office assistants to retail and Uber drivers. Retirement is becoming less attainable.
  • Listener Bailey Dolof (04:08):

    “We are young and we are afraid that when we get older, the world isn’t going to change and it’s still going to be in a position where we can’t retire.”

• Age Bias & “Overqualified” Label: Older applicants often feel “squeezed out” for jobs matching their skill set.
• Value of Networking: Those with robust professional networks have more success landing positions.
  • Lindsay Ellis (05:30):

    “Older workers who said they had success… really leaned in on their connections sometimes over decades in the workplace.”

4. Young Job Seekers & Competitive Tension

(05:59 – 07:03)

• Listener Story:
  • Alex Kittridge (06:14):

    “I’ve gone on about 150 interviews in the last 12 months… it just shows how highly qualified and highly competitive the market is these days.”

• Application Flood: Employers are seeing a “massive surge” in applications, possibly due to AI-generated resumés, making screening overwhelming.

5. The “Robot vs. Robot” Job Hunt

(07:03 – 08:09)

• AI in Recruitment and Job Seeking:
  • Lindsay Ellis (07:03):

    “Applicants and hiring managers… describe the job market right now as just robot versus robot. Job seekers are pushing out AI applications and companies are using AI tools to screen them. And it’s just like, when can I actually talk to a human?”

• Entry-Level Squeeze:
  • Companies hesitate to hire for entry-level roles with uncertainty over what AI will handle in the near future. This hesitancy makes school-to-work transitions harder, especially for young professionals.

6. Real Impact of AI on the Labor Market

(09:00 – 10:04)

• Justin Lehart: Initial academic studies (e.g., Stanford using ADP payroll data) show AI is affecting some occupations and younger workers, but the aggregate impact remains small so far.
  • Quote (09:20):

    “It is affecting some occupations, in particular affecting young people. It’s really, really slight though…”

  • But: Business uncertainty about AI’s future capabilities contributes more to the current “very low hire environment.”

7. On-the-Ground Stories: AI as Threat and Opportunity

(10:17 – 11:23)

• From Silicon Valley:
  • Rachel Bedor (10:17):

    “Recently my boss asked me to code an AI agent to replace a big chunk of my job… it does make me nervous.”

• In Commercial Insurance:
  • Miles Hilliard (10:58):

    “It actually allows younger folks in the workforce that may have less experience be able to work at a higher clip because they're supported by a more robust data infrastructure…”

8. Executive vs. Employee Perspectives on AI

(11:30 – 12:55)

• Surveyed Divide: Executives report AI is saving significant time, while most employees see little benefit and feel overwhelmed by new demands.
  • Lindsay Ellis (11:30):

    “Employees were saying AI wasn’t saving them much time at all in their daily work and many reported feeling super overwhelmed by the ask to start incorporating it into their jobs.”

  • Follow-up (11:50):

    “A significant chunk of time savings from AI is reinvested in correcting errors or poor output from the technology… it is the lower level employees who might be absorbing that kind of work.”

9. “Deep Freeze” in the Labor Market: Low Hire, Low Fire

(12:55 – 14:17)

• Justin Lehart: Describes current conditions as a “deep freeze”—few people quitting, few being hired, little churn.
  • Justin Lehart (13:17):

    “…this deep freeze… a low hire, low fire environment… people are really, really worried about the labor market… you don’t have people leaving their jobs... You get this sort of stasis and it’s really, really tough, especially for young workers.”

• Unemployment Rate vs. Perception: The official unemployment rate is 4.3%, but public anxiety and stagnation are high.
• Particular Struggles for Young Workers: Breaking into the market or starting careers is especially challenging.

10. Looking Ahead: What to Watch

(14:22 – 14:55)

• Lindsay Ellis: Interested in how this “freeze” shapes career plans and mobility.
  • Quote (14:22):

    “How do they see the potential for advancement, for change, for pivoting? How do you even break in in this environment... when there is such a disconnect between the unemployment rate and the stagnancy many are experiencing?”

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Job seekers are basically pushing out AI applications and companies are using AI tools to screen them. And it’s just like, when can I actually talk to a human?”
  — Lindsay Ellis (07:03)

• “Older workers who said they had success… really leaned in on their connections sometimes over decades in the workplace.”
  — Lindsay Ellis (05:30)

• “It actually allows younger folks in the workforce that may have less experience be able to work at a higher clip because they're supported by a more robust data infrastructure…”
  — Miles Hilliard, listener (10:58)

• “This deep freeze… a low hire, low fire environment… people are really, really worried about the labor market… it’s really, really tough, especially for young workers.”
  — Justin Lehart (13:17)

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Important Timestamps

• 00:18 — Episode introduction: Setting the scene for the job market discussion
• 02:05 — Discussion of trust and measurement error in official jobs numbers
• 03:00 — The disconnect between job market statistics and lived experience
• 04:08 — Older Americans' struggle in the labor market and the importance of networking
• 06:14 — Listener recounts intense competition and disappointment in job search
• 07:03 — “Robot vs. robot” dynamics in hiring and applying
• 09:20 — Academic insights on AI’s current, limited impact on employment
• 10:17 — Listener stories: Coding yourself out of a job; AI as a career booster
• 11:30 — Survey: Executives vs. employees on AI’s time-saving value
• 13:17 — The “deep freeze”: low hiring/firing, high anxiety, and its effect on young workers
• 14:22 — What reporters are watching in the months ahead for the labor market

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Episode Tone

Conversational and accessible, blending journalistic data with everyday experiences and candid listener stories. The tone is empathetic to job seekers’ frustrations and skeptical of overly rosy official narratives, while probing for nuanced explanations amid uncertainty.

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Summary prepared for those seeking a clear, structured roadmap through the complexities of today’s U.S. job market—without the need for technical jargon or direct listening.

Transcript

[Lindsay Ellis]

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[Luke Farkas]

Hey, what's news, listeners? It's Sunday, February 15th. I'm Luke Farkas for the Wall Street Journal, and this is what's NEWS Sunday, the show where we tackle the big questions about the biggest stories in the news by reaching out to our colleagues across the newsro to help explain what's happening in our world. And this week, how strong is the US labor market? A new report finds us employers just shed more jobs in January than at any point since 2009. Big businesses are announcing layoffs and AI and automation are nipping at the heels of what feels like a lot of people's jobs. But are things really that bad or could they be about to get a whole lot worse? We've got a pair of journal reporters with us to answer your questions about the job market. So let's get right to it. 130,000. That's the number of jobs the US added in January, more than doubling analyst expectations, with gains in healthcare and social assistance roles helping to outnumber declines in government warehousing information and financial services. But if that data point still leaves a lot unsaid about the complex state of the jobs market, especially with new revisions to the data showing that fewer jobs were created over the last two years than previously thought, well, worry not, because we've been tracking down answers to your questions about the job market from a pair of excellent reporters. Justin Lehart covers economics for us out of New York. And from Washington, D.C. we're joined by workplace and careers reporter Lindsay Ellis. Justin, one thing I keep seeing readers asking about in the comments of our jobs report stories is can we even trust the numbers, implying there may be some real jobs numbers out there? We're not seeing. What should we make of that sort of insinuation?

[Justin Lehart]

Yeah, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has not been as well funded as a lot of people would like. And it's just getting more and more complex. So, you know, we can have these situations where we have very large revisions. And we've also had coming out of the pandemic, you know, lots of weird distortions that are hard to keep track of. Businesses don't respond to surveys like they used to. People don't respond to surveys like they used to. So, you know, we are sort of more prone to measurement error, you know, that will eventually get fixed. But it can really throw you for a loop.

[Luke Farkas]

Yeah. And beyond the official statistics, there are unofficial measures out there that are flashing warning signs as well, contributing to this disconnect we see between the positive economic assessments coming from the White House and then on the other hand, how it feels to be in the labor market. Lindsey, you speak to people in all different walks of life for your reporting. I'm curious where you're hearing that tension come up.

[Lindsay Ellis]

Many people who I interview who are looking for jobs say that there is this massive disconnect between what they see publicly, publicly and their own day to day experience. And many of the people who I've been talking to who feel totally stuck in their careers and in their job searches are looking for, you know, corporate jobs. You know, the growth that we're seeing is in healthcare and social services, as we just discussed. And so if you're looking for a job in finance or in tech, a desk job in professional services, those sectors aren't seeing that kind of growth. And so in that respect, you know, the numbers are very much reflecting the experiences of workers and job seekers who are just like, where do I go from here?

[Luke Farkas]

A good reminder that not every job is created equal of white collar workers in particular might be, you know, not so satisfied with what's available out there, even if they technically represent a job opening. I want to drill into one particular cohort, older Americans. This is something that was brought to our attention by a listener, Bailey Dolof, in Saratoga Springs, New York. He called in to describe something that he and his wife have been seeing.

[Listener or Guest]

We often notice a lot more older people working in service positions like Dunkin Donuts and CVS and our local supermarket. The last two office assistants we've had have been retirement age, with the last one having to come back from retirement because they couldn't afford their bills. We are young and we are afraid that when we get older, the world isn't going to change and it's still going to be in a position where we can't retire.

[Lindsay Ellis]

It's a really interesting observation. I recently did some reporting on how job seekers in their 60s broke through in this market. And many of them said that when they applied for jobs squarely in line with the experience that they had, they felt that they were perceived as overqualified or, you know, that hiring managers think that they might not take a job. And so they felt squeezed out. A few of the people who we talked to wound up in positions that they maybe wouldn't have otherwise considered, you know, a front desk manager or Driving for Uber, just like the listener suggests. But one area that I did find really interesting in doing that reporting is that, you know, the older workers who said that they had success, one thing that they did to distinguish themselves was to really lean in on their connections sometimes over decades in the workplace. You know, that's not something that a 25 year old or a 30 year old would have, you know, long time relationships in which you've shown your reliability and the like and have really gained a specialized set of knowledge. And so we talked to a few individuals who were really hitting that message hard, really leaning into their established networks to kind of break through in this space.

[Luke Farkas]

Yeah, those networking connections really vital. You know, speaking of the difficulty maybe younger workers are experiencing looking for jobs, we heard from listener Alex Kittridge in Brooklyn who described honestly what sounds like a pretty demoralizing job search. Let's hear what he had to say.

[Listener or Guest]

I've gone on about 150 interviews in the last 12 months and you know, it really has shown me how tight the labor market is. No matter what I do, you know, I always get to the final round. But it's between me and three other candidates in the final round and you know, it just shows how highly qualified and highly competitive market is these days.

[Luke Farkas]

I should throw into the mix that we also did hear from a listener who runs a digital marketing agency in Connecticut. He said he's seen a massive surge in applications though actually this is a problem in and of itself too because he said he's got so many of them coming in, he now has to pay a company to screen all of these candidates. He suspects maybe AI is responsible for this deluge. But putting that aside, Lindsey, I mean, it just doesn't sound like we are dealing with a business as usual job hunt anymore from all sorts of different angles.

[Lindsay Ellis]

Oh gosh, so much to follow up applicants and hiring managers. For what it's worth, describe the job market right now is just robot versus robot. You know, job seekers are basically pushing out AI applications and companies are using AI tools to screen them. And it's just like, when can I actually talk to a human? I've been seeing in some recent research that young professionals might not be impacted by as frequently by layoffs. But when it comes from transitioning from school to the workforce, that is a harder transition to make. When I talk to companies about that, especially smaller businesses, they describe a sense of hesitancy of do we really need this role? We don't know what policy is going to bring, we don't know What AI is going to be able to do six months from now? Maybe let's hold off on hiring someone to do this entry level work. And certainly that aspect of this is anecdotal, but I do think the caution is reflective of an environment that might make it more difficult for young people to break into.

[Luke Farkas]

Okay, a robot versus robot job hunt. We're going to just put a pin in that and come back after a very short break to dive more into the effect that AI is having on the labor market now and maybe in the future. Stay with us.

[Lindsay Ellis]

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[Listener or Guest]

We have one of the best, if not the best, privacy governance program that I have ever seen.

[Luke Farkas]

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[Listener or Guest]

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[Lindsay Ellis]

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[Luke Farkas]

Justin Just before the break there, Lindsey was hinting at some of the uncertainties that exist around how AI is going to transform the labor market. This is a theme that we heard a lot about from listeners. Before we hear from them though. I just was hoping you could put some numbers to this. Do we have evidence of how AI is affecting the labor market writ large?

[Justin Lehart]

There is some evidence that AI is really hurting some jobs. It's not something that's going to show up in the aggregate numbers. So there's some research out of Stanford using really granular data from the payroll services company adp. They said, yeah, for sure we're seeing this effect. It is affecting some occupations, in particular affecting young people. It's really, really slight though. But I do think something that Lindsey pointed to, there's another way that AI can be affecting the job market and that's that businesses don't know what its capabilities are going to be. And that might be feeding more into this very low hire environment that we've been having.

[Luke Farkas]

Okay, so see what you can squeeze out of your current workforce. Lindsey, I'm just staying on AI for a moment. I want to get you to respond to a pair of comments from listeners. The first coming actually from Silicon Valley from sales engineer Rachel Bedor.

[Lindsay Ellis]

Recently my boss asked me to code an AI agent to replace a big chunk of my job. So I have been happily doing that because he asked for it. But it does make me nervous. So I have been looking at different ways to upskill and thinking about switching to a more strategic role and leaving.

[Luke Farkas]

The technical stuff behind One Response to A Rapidly Changing Technological Landscape but though not all the AI talk is doom and gloom because we also heard from New York listener Miles Hilliard, who's the co founder of a commercial insurance agency. He told us he's hiring now and that AI is actually helping his business to get a leg up, describing his competitors who maybe weren't using it as antiquated.

[Listener or Guest]

It actually allows younger folks in the workforce that may have less experience be able to work at a higher clip because they're supported by a more robust data infrastructure that allows them to be more educated and thoughtful about the work that they're doing. It also allows people that don't have as high of a salary be able to work at a higher clip or manage more revenue or more responsibility.

[Luke Farkas]

Lindsey, it sounds like management and workers are not singing off the same score sheet here about AI.

[Lindsay Ellis]

Yeah, that is a really interesting dynamic that's playing out in a lot of different workplaces because executives can talk about the benefits of this technology in press releases or earnings calls or doing a podcast, but you know, when the rubber meets the road, they need to get the rank and file on board. And a survey of about 5,000 white collar workers from the AI consulting firm section we reported on this recently, you know, showed a really interesting divide in that, you know, employees were saying AI wasn't saving them much time at all in their daily work and many of them just reported feeling super overwhelmed by, you know, the ask to start incorporating it into their jobs. Meanwhile, executives were saying the technology was saving them significant time, day to day, week to week. I've seen some other research that has found that a significant chunk of time savings from AI is sort of reinvested in correcting errors or poor output from the technology. And you know, one might think that it is the lower level employees who might be absorbing that kind of work. I am sort of all ears for practical real life examples of how this is playing out in the workforce. We've been covering a few. So you know, I have my eye out on how this is going to unfold in all kinds of different industries.

[Luke Farkas]

Okay, so listeners, get in touch with Lindsey. We're gonna blow up your inbox. Justin, Just trying to bring this all together. Where does this leave the labor market overall? I was reading one of your recent pieces. The term deep freeze came up. This was the assessment of the market by EY's chief economist. I mean, unpack that. And as a parting thought, I'm curious what you'll be watching for in the months to come.

[Justin Lehart]

Yeah. So there are a bunch of things going on with this deep freeze, which is really this low hire, low fire environment that we're in. I think a big one that maybe doesn't get discussed that much is people are really, really worried about the labor market. They're a lot more worried about the labor market than you would expect from.

[Luke Farkas]

Where the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Tons of people, at least according to the official data, are not out of work right now.

[Justin Lehart]

Yeah. But they're worried about it. So you just don't have people leaving their jobs. They're not quitting their jobs. You're not having that sort of churn in the labor market.

[Listener or Guest]

Right.

[Justin Lehart]

And a lot of hiring every month is just replacing people who've left. So nobody's leaving. You get this sort of stasis and it's really, really tough, especially for young workers, for workers who are just graduated from high school or just graduated from college. And those are the folks have been really struggling the most to find jobs and to find good jobs to start their careers with.

[Luke Farkas]

Lindsey, what are you watching in the weeks, months to come as we suss out what's going on in the jobs market?

[Lindsay Ellis]

The key thing that I have my eye on is what are the ramifications of this freeze as you and Justin described so well, on how people are weighing their next career steps? How do they see the potential for advancement, for change, for pivoting? How do you even break in in this environment, both from a practical tips perspective and just how does one think about the arc of their career when there is this moment of such a disconnect between the unemployment rate and the stagnancy that many are experiencing?

[Luke Farkas]

Lots to keep an eye on, I've been speaking to Wall Street Journal workplace and careers reporter Lindsay Ellis. Lindsey, thank you so much for stopping by.

[Lindsay Ellis]

Thanks for having me.

[Luke Farkas]

And also with us today, Justin Lehart, Journal economics reporter in New York. Justin, thank you so much.

[Justin Lehart]

Thank you.

[Luke Farkas]

And that's it for what's new Sunday for February 15th. Today's show was produced by Daniel Bach with supervising producers Sandra Kilhoff and Melanie Roy and deputy editor Chris Sinceley. I'm Luke Vargas and we'll be back after the holiday with a brand new show on Tuesday morning. Until then, thanks for listening. What's driving the markets this week? What's on investors minds as they look ahead? Find out on the Markets podcast from Goldman Sachs. A breakdown of market moves and macro signals in 10 minutes or less. The Markets podcast from Goldman Sachs.

[Justin Lehart]

Listen now.