What’s News in Earnings: How Big Pharma Is Expanding the GLP-1 Market

Summary

WSJ What’s News in Earnings: How Big Pharma Is Expanding the GLP-1 Market

Date: May 8, 2026
Host: David Wehner
Guest: Peter Loftus, WSJ Pharma Reporter

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Episode Overview

This episode examines how major pharmaceutical companies—particularly Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk—are navigating and expanding the booming market for GLP-1 weight loss drugs. The discussion delves into the ongoing battle between oral and injectable drug formats, explores the broader implications for overall market growth, and covers the dynamics in another massive pharma arena: autoimmune drugs.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Surging GLP-1 Weight Loss Drug Market

• Eli Lilly’s Blowout Results:
  • Eli Lilly surpassed analyst expectations for the most recent quarter and raised its full-year sales forecast, largely driven by consumer demand for its GLP-1 injections.
• Novo Nordisk’s Strong Start with Oral Wegovy:
  • The launch of Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy pill has seen one of the fastest uptakes in pharma history, already surpassing a million prescriptions since its January release.

Quote:

“Their Wegovy pill really has had one of the fastest launches of any drug in pharma history.”
— Peter Loftus [01:47]

2. The Pill vs. Pill Battle: Wegovy vs. Fondeo

• Market Leader:
  • Novo Nordisk is seen as having the edge, with its pill outperforming Eli Lilly’s Foundao both in efficacy and brand familiarity.
  • Reasons Novo Is Ahead:
    • Stronger efficacy in clinical trials.
    • Well-established brand recognition from the injectable version of Wegovy (launched 5 years prior).
    • Fondeo, as a new brand, is less known but may catch up as Lilly ramps up its marketing efforts.
  • Potential for Lilly:
    • Lilly’s international roll-out could shift momentum, thanks to their comparatively easier pill manufacturing process.

Quote:

“Even if you adjust for the timing of the launch, it’s clear that the Wegovy pill was doing better.”
— Peter Loftus [01:59]

• Market Expansion, Not Just Cannibalization:
  • The introduction of pills is bringing new consumers into the market, not just shifting patients from injectables.
  • This validates the premise that pills would unlock an untapped market of patients averse to injections.

Quote:

“The pills seem to be expanding the market for weight loss drugs overall, rather than just taking business away from the shots.”
— Peter Loftus [03:00]

3. The Future Growth Path & Risks

• Dominance of Injectables:
  • While pills are growing, injectables remain the core business.
  • Huge sales increases for Lilly’s Mounjaro (for diabetes and obesity) and Zepbound (weight loss version).
• Declining Prices:
  • Notable drop in GLP-1 drug prices—from over $1,000/month to as low as $149/month.
  • This volume-over-price shift could dampen total revenue, with some analysts reducing their market size forecasts.
  • Novo Nordisk has even predicted a decline in overall sales for this year.

Quotes:

“Pricing has been coming down in a pretty remarkable way … down to as low as $149 a month. That big price reduction is going to put a damper on overall sales.”
— Peter Loftus [03:55][04:09]

“Novo Nordisk is actually predicting its overall sales will decline this year.”
— Peter Loftus [04:22]

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4. The Autoimmune Drug Market

Competitive Dynamics

• AbbVie vs. Johnson & Johnson:
  • The market for autoimmune drugs (e.g., for psoriasis, Crohn’s disease) is highly competitive.
  • Early fears that Johnson & Johnson’s (J&J) new pill and injectable would eat into AbbVie’s share have been alleviated—AbbVie posted better-than-expected sales for its key drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq.
  • AbbVie raised its sales outlook for both drugs, suggesting resilience despite competition.

Quote:

“Abbvie actually raised its sales guidance for its two main autoimmune drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq.”
— Peter Loftus [05:20]

“I think that there’s a sense that AbbVie will be okay.”
— Peter Loftus [05:31]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Wegovy’s rapid uptake:

  “They’ve already had more than a million patients using it just since January, since it came out.”
  — Peter Loftus [01:55]

• On price drops:

  “These drugs started with list price of $1,000 a month or above. Now they’re coming down to as low as $149 a month.”
  — Peter Loftus [04:07]

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Important Timestamps

• 00:22 — Episode introduction and market summary by David Wehner
• 01:45 — Peter Loftus begins discussion on Novo Nordisk vs. Eli Lilly pills
• 02:14 — Superior efficacy and brand advantage of Wegovy pill
• 03:00 — Pills expanding the weight loss drug market
• 03:28 — Continued dominance and growth of injectables; market risks and falling prices
• 04:32 — Shift to autoimmune drugs market: AbbVie vs. Johnson & Johnson
• 04:59 — AbbVie’s better-than-expected results, improved guidance for Skyrizi and Rinvoq

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Episode Tone & Style

The conversation is brisk, data-driven, and analytical, with Peter Loftus providing sharp, matter-of-fact insights and David Wehner guiding the discussion with focused, relevant questions. Both speakers maintain a neutral, informative tone aimed at investors and market watchers.

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Summary Takeaways

• Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy holds the competitive edge in the pill market for weight loss drugs, but Eli Lilly may make international gains.
• GLP-1 pills are expanding the market, not just shifting patients from injectables.
• Price declines are reshaping revenue expectations, with companies trading lower prices for higher volumes.
• In the competitive autoimmune drug space, AbbVie surprised with solid growth and confidence, despite pressure from J&J.

Listeners seeking the inside edge on market-moving pharma trends will find this episode a concise, insightful rundown of the sector’s big dynamics this earnings season.

Transcript

[Ryan Knudson]

Hey, it's Ryan Knudson, host of the Journal Podcast, our show about money, business and power. If you're looking for more deeply reported stories like we share every day, consider becoming a subscriber to the Wall Street Journal. Visit subscribe.WSJ.com TheJournal all lowercase to subscribe now.

[David Wehner]

Hey listeners, it's Friday, May 8th. I'm David Wehner for the Wall Street Journal, and this is what's news in earnings. Our look at some of the biggest themes standing out this earnings season. The weight loss drug market is still growing faster than Wall street expects. Industry leader Eli Lilly last week reported results that blew past analyst estimates and the company raised its forecast for sales this year. And that was mostly because of consumer demand for its GLP1 injections. Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk said the prescriptions for its new Wegovy pillow are off to a strong start. That showed that people around the world just can't get enough of weight loss drugs. With growing demand for the pills as well as the injectables elsewhere in pharma, companies are mostly delivering positive results, with Merck, Bristol Myers Squibb and Abbvie all posting earnings beats. But investors are still debating the durability of their long term growth. We're joined now by Wall Street Journal reporter Peter Loftus, who covers the pharmaceutical industry. Peter, where do things stand in the whole pill versus pill battle? Basically, Novo's oral Wegovy going up against Lilly's Fondao. Is there a clear winner emerging or is it still too early to call?

[Peter Loftus]

Right now you'd have to say Novo

Nordisk has the edge.

Their Wegovy pill really has had one

of the fastest launches of any any drug in pharma history.

They've already had more than a million

patients using it just since January, since it came out.

Of course, it did get a head start on Eli Lilly, whose Foundao came out in April. But even if you adjust for the timing of the launch, it's clear that the Wegovy pill was doing better. And there's a couple reasons for this. One is that the Wegovy pill showed

stronger efficacy in trials than Fondeo did.

And also the Wegovy pill is using

this established brand name that we first saw five years ago when the injectable version came out.

Whereas Foundao is a brand new brand name, it's less familiar to consumers now.

That said, Lilly hasn't really started the consumer promotion like TV ads and more.

And a lot of analysts think that Lilly will have an edge when it comes to rolling this drug out internationally,

outside the US and having a big enough supply to be able to meet all that demand, because it's actually a lot easier for Lilly to make a lot of its pills than it is for Novo Nordisk.

One other interesting aspect for both of these companies is that the pills seem to be expanding the market for weight

loss drugs overall, rather than just taking business away from the shots.

And that sort of validates the whole

premise that the companies had for developing pills in the first place was they

felt there was a large untapped market

of people who would just prefer a pill for weight loss.

[David Wehner]

But aside from the pills, the reports showed that injections are still the main business and international markets are expanding. How do we think about the growth path from here and what are risks investors should be watching for?

[Peter Loftus]

Yeah, I mean, Lilly's results showed that sales of Mounjaro, which is for both diabetes and obesity, more than doubled. And it's probably on track to being the highest selling drug in the world. Zepbound, the weight loss version of this in the US was up something like 80%.

There's still an expectation of just strong continued growth for these drugs in both shot and pill form.

The one thing that's changing, and I guess you could call this a risk

for investors, but maybe good for consumers,

is that the pricing has been coming

down in a pretty remarkable way. These drugs started with list price of $1,000 a month or above.

Now they're coming down to as low

as $149 a month.

That big price reduction is going to

put a damper on overall sales, so much so that some analysts have actually reduced their estimates of the overall market size for obesity drugs.

Novo Nordisk is actually predicting its overall

sales will decline this year.

So the companies have basically accepted this

trade off of price for volume.

[David Wehner]

Let's switch gears. Another massive market is the autoimmune space. Think of all those ads for clear skin or joint pain. The market for drugs that treat conditions like psoriasis and Crohn's has gotten incredibly competitive. The big fear here for the leader, Avvi has been JJ making inroads with its spills, while AbbVie tries to defend its turf with its injections. Did Abvi's results this week put those fears to rest?

[Peter Loftus]

There was a lot of concern the

first few months of the year that Johnson and Johnson would really take market

share with not only its new pill, but also another injectable drug. But it turned out that Abbvie's autoimmune

drugs they had solid sales growth for this past quarter.

And in fact, it was better than expected. Abbvie actually raised its sales guidance for

its two main autoimmune drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq.

Certainly, jj, you can't count them out

because they've also been a strong leader in autoimmune drugs.

But I think that there's a sense

that AbbVie will be okay.

[David Wehner]

That was Peter Loftus, Wall Street Journal's pharma reporter. Thank you so much for joining us.

[Peter Loftus]

Thanks for having me.

[David Wehner]

And that was what's News in Earnings. Today's show was produced by Danny Lewis with supervising producer Tali Arbel. Later today, we'll have the PM edition of what's News out for you as usual. And we'll be back later this earning season, diving into another industry. Until then, I'm David Wehner. Have a great day.

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[Miriam Gottfried]

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