Loading summary
Transcript34 lines
- [00:01]
A
Between tariffs, geopolitical shocks and everything else, 2026 has been a lot so far. The Dow Jones Risk Journal podcast delivers inside analysis from our expert newsroom to help you navigate the uncertainties of risk and regulation with new episodes every Friday.
- [00:18]
B
The US Scrambles fighter jets to Israel, ramping up the pressure on Iran ahead of the latest nuclear talks. Plus, an increasing number of American adults under 55 are dying of heart attacks.
- [00:31]
C
The study paints a picture of a youngish but really unhealthy population. So if you're 35 and having a heart attack, aside from the rarest of genetic disorders, it's usually because your health is quite poor.
- [00:44]
B
And the Justice Department reviews whether it improperly withheld some Epstein files, including FBI notes detailing a woman's allegations against President Trump. It's Thursday, February 26th. I'm Daniel Bok for the Wall Street Journal, filling in for Luke Vargas. And here's the AM Edition of what's news, the top headlines and stories moving your world today. The US has deployed combat jets to Israel for a potential wartime mission ahead of today's high stakes talks with Iran. Videos posted to social media show F22 fighters arriving in Israel, although the Trump administration hasn't officially announced the deployment. The move would allow the US to defend Israeli territory and American forces should President Trump proceed with threatened strikes. Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested that no breakthrough is expected in today's talks and that the focus will be on Iran's nuclear program.
- [01:43]
D
Iran poses a very grave threat to the United States and has for a very long time. They are in possession first and foremost. After their nuclear program was obliterated, they were told not to try to restart it, and here they are. You can see them always trying to rebuild elements of it. They're not enriching right now, but they're trying to get to the point where they ultimately can.
- [02:01]
B
Rubio's comments come as experts note Iran's nuclear program has not advanced significantly since US And Israeli strikes on the country last June, despite concern in Washington. And the lack of visible progress raises questions about the administration's rationale for a potential strike on Iran. Businesses in Cuba are welcoming a US Move to allow some oil shipments to the island, saying it could avert a humanitarian catastrophe. Yesterday, the treasury said American fuel would be sent on a case by case basis to Cuban companies, while sales to the communist government remain illegal under current US Sanctions.
- [02:38]
E
Cuba's small businesses have filled a big hole left by the government, which is basically bankrupt and has greatly mismanaged the economy. They basically have had to step in into areas that the Cuban government has not been able to to carry out, especially in importing foods. A lot of the food that Cuba needs and different kinds of goods.
- [03:02]
B
That's The Journal's Jose DeCordova. He told us Cuba produces just 40% of the fuel it needs and is expected to run out in just a few weeks.
- [03:11]
E
Because of Cuba's fuel shortages, the economy is quickly grinding to a halt. Hospitals are only doing urgent surgeries. Tourism has largely stopped and, and there are widespread shortages of most goods. And inflation is out of control, putting a lot of the food out of the reach for many Cubans who don't have remittances that they can depend on from relatives abroad.
- [03:37]
B
Humanitarian aid has poured into Cuba since the oil embargo began back in January, but much of it remains stuck in ports because there is no fuel to transport it to the people who need it. Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang has rejected any suggestions of an AI bubble after the chip maker topped analyst expectations, posting a more than 90% increase in profit following record sales for the fourth quarter. Speaking to CNBC, Huang said the fears around agentic AI and how that might impact software stocks has been overblown.
- [04:12]
F
I think a thought experiment that could be helpful is imagine one of these days when we have robots and these robots are in our homes. It's very unlikely that the robot will come up with a new Cuisinart. The robot will just read the manual for the Cuisinart and just use the Cuisinart. It's more likely that instead of coming up with another way of doing microwaving that the robot will just use the microwave. These tools exist for a good reason. And so I'm fairly certain future robots will use screwdrivers and wrenches and, you know, pliers and things like that. And, and, and these tools are essentially in their digital form from the companies that you're talking about.
- [04:51]
B
Frank Lee is HSBC's global head of technology, hardware and semiconductor research. Frank, let's start with the numbers for Nvidia. What are you reading into their performance this quarter and over the past year?
- [05:03]
G
Yeah, I think the numbers were good. It was a pretty good beaten raise. And it's the second quarter in a row. I remember last quarter was the first quarter and six quarters. It's already see a beaten raise. It's happened again this time, in fact, the first quarter guidance I think was considerably higher, not only against our number, but the overall street and including some buy side expectations.
- [05:23]
B
So the spending now Good for Nvidia, as you say. But does it face headwinds if other companies can't keep up this rate of spending on AI to boost Nvidia?
- [05:34]
G
Yeah, so I think it's a good question. I think the last couple months a couple things have emerged. The first thing is the memory space has become a super positive cycle that we have not seen in a long time. We know that's been a big problem in shortages. So this is resulting in hyperscalers having to pay more money for memory but not necessarily getting more compute or more hardware performance. So that's one of the things I think people are also questioning is like, okay, our people are paying up, but they're not getting more performance from what they were a couple months ago. The second thing I think Nvidia has also brought up on this call was the idea of a GenTech AI, the inflection point of Agentech AI. He's mentioned it several times on the call, which we agree with. But I think what's interesting though is that agentech AI also seems to be boosting overall server CPU demand. So you see comments from intel and AMD suggest the same thing. So the question now is, you know, Gentek AI, how much of a boost is this to the pure GPU business that Nvidia has been dominating? And how much is a bigger boost to the traditional CPU makers or even new guys like arm? So I think there are some questions about who is the true beneficiary of the Gentek AI. From a hardware point of view, it's not as clean clutch as it was before.
- [06:48]
B
And what of software companies that are customers of Nvidia? I think Huang, in his comments there was sort of arguing that the advancement in software will boost AI and agentic AI, but there are concerns in the market that that spending won't really be realized. What do you read into that?
- [07:09]
G
Yeah, so again, I think the spending for hyperscalers have continued to increase more and more than anybody's expected. So we saw in January another big revision for most of the hyperscalers. But you're getting to a point now where hyperscalers are having to fund some of this externally. So you see some of these hyperscalers are coming to the market to fund and this is the first time we're really seeing it. Previously, the first couple of years of AI, it was self funded. Right. So I think there's more scrutiny now in terms of what people are paying for what hyperscalers are investing in. Perhaps, perhaps they were earlier.
- [07:42]
B
And what about your take on the bubble fears if they've shifted, if they have been beaten back by these earnings. Are you an AI bull or bear? At this moment, I'm still an AI bull.
- [07:54]
G
I think the difference is that because of some of these uncertainties persisting right now, companies need to deliver earnings right. In the first two years of this AI trade, it didn't really matter if the earnings were coming through or they were generating. Nvidia is not net camp. They have delivered on earnings, but I think the question is the multiple of how much people willing to pay for AI names is definitely under more scrutiny than they were previously. So I think that's one of the challenges. In general, what you're seeing is this diffusion of AI moving into hardware names. Clearly memory has been one of them. Networking, which Nvidia also mentioned on this call, is another area where we see very clear content growth and perhaps higher growth than the traditional compute, which is where we saw their initial beneficiary of AI.
- [08:36]
B
Frank Lee is HSBC's global head of technology, hardware and semiconductor research. Frank, thanks for your time.
- [08:42]
E
Thanks.
- [08:43]
B
Coming up, the rest of the day's news, including a move by the Trump administration to pause Medicaid funding to Minnesota. Plus, no matter how much sleep we get, we're always getting sleep shamed by someone. Those stories after the break.
- [08:58]
A
Shifts in geopolitics, tariffs and regulation are rewriting the global playbook for international business. Every Friday on the Dow Jones Risk Journal podcast, our expert journalists and analysts take you inside the news, breaking down the hidden angles on the week's biggest developments, from sanctions and foreign policy shifts to cyber threats and supply chain disruptions. If you want clear insights into how power and policy are shaping global business risk, follow the Dow Jones Risk Journal podcast wherever you listen.
- [09:32]
B
The Justice Department is reviewing whether it improperly withheld some Epstein files, including FBI notes that detail unverified allegations made by a woman against President Trump. The exclusion of the FBI interviews raises new questions about the DOJ's handling of the Epstein files release. Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanch, who oversaw the release, said that the department complied with the law and that we didn't protect or not protect anybody. Trump has denied wrongdoing and said his friendship with Epstein ended before the convicted sex offender pleaded guilty to procuring a minor for prostitution back in 2008. The Trump administration is pausing nearly $260 million in Medicaid funding to Minnesota, calling it a way to push the state to better account for how public funds are being distributed. Vice President J.D. vance made the announcement in his first action as head of the so called war on fraud. As President Trump put it in his State of the Union.
- [10:28]
H
What this means is that first of all, the providers on the ground in Minnesota have actually already been paid. The state has paid those providers the money. What we're doing is we are stopping the federal payments that will go to the state government until the state government takes its obligations seriously to stop the fraud that's being perpetrated against the American taxpayer.
- [10:51]
B
The move comes after allegations of fraud involving daycare centers run by Somali residents in Minneapolis prompted the massive immigration crackdown in the city radio, resulting in widespread protests and the fatal shooting of two U.S. citizens. Democratic Governor Tim Walz said the funding pause wasn't about fraud, but rather a campaign of retribution to punish blue states. Walz said the cuts would be devastating for working people, families, veterans and people with disabilities. Well, the last thing someone in their 30s or 40s should worry about is dying of a heart attack. But new research shows more young adults, in fact, are A new study published in the Journal of the American Heart association today finds that the rate of adults aged 18 to 54 who died in hospital of a severe first heart attack rose 57% between 2011 and 2022. The Journal's Betsy McKay says that's despite decades of medical advances.
- [11:48]
C
The study paints a picture of a youngish but really unhealthy population. About 60% of the patients who had a severe first heart attack had high blood pressure. More than half had high cholesterol or smoked, and about a third had diabetes. Many were low income, which the study suggests means less access to preventive care.
- [12:09]
B
The study also found that young women died at higher rates than men. And finally, the question keeping us up at night, literally, are we actually getting enough sleep? According to Journal columnist Elizabeth Bernstein, the real culprit isn't the hours we log, but how we feel about them. Sleep shame has turned our resting hours into a high pressure performance test.
- [12:31]
I
Sleep shame is the subtle and not so subtle ways that we and other people shame ourselves about our sleep. It doesn't matter if you're an early bird, a night owl. No matter what we do, it seems like we're not doing sleep right. Sleep trackers are a big problem. We're tracking all these metrics that the average person doesn't really even understand in sleep. One size doesn't fit all. Everybody's been told forever that there's eight hours of sleep. Well, that's not actually the case anymore. Now scientists understand that we need between seven and nine. But some people actually can sleep with a lot less. So there's solutions to this, thankfully. The first is to own your sleep needs, and then secondly, you have to accept that this is innate and biological
- [13:16]
B
to you, along with understanding your own sleep. Elizabeth explained that this also extends to respecting your partner's needs.
- [13:23]
I
Research shows that couples with different sleep needs actually have more conflict. The experts say that when couples have different sleep needs, it's important that they go to bed together, spend some time in bed, and then when the early bird wants to go to sleep, then the night owl gets up and continues on with their evening.
- [13:40]
B
And that's it for what's news for this Thursday morning. Today's show was produced by Hattie Moyer. Our supervising producer is Sandra Kilhoff. And I'm Daniel Bach for the Wall Street Journal. We'll be back tonight with a new show. Until then, thanks for listening.
- [13:56]
G
Foreign.
- [14:04]
J
Hey, this is Telus Demos and I'm Miriam Gottfried. We're reporters at the Wall Street Journal and The hosts of WSJ's take on the Week. It's a weekly show that gives listeners a leg up in the world of markets and investing. From the Fed's moves to market bubbles, we dive into the biggest deals, key players and business news ahead. If you're looking for more news and tools that you can use to help navigate the markets, consider becoming a subscriber to the Wall street journal. Visit subscribe WSJ.com takeontheweek to subscribe now.