Podcast Summary: WSJ What’s News

Episode: Why the San Francisco Fed President Supports a Rate Cut in December
Date: November 24, 2025
Host: Alex Osolleff (The Wall Street Journal)

Episode Overview

This episode dives into several major business and geopolitical stories of the day, with a primary focus on San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly’s support for a December interest rate cut. The episode also features in-depth discussions on Trump’s Ukraine peace plan, diplomatic moves between the U.S. and China, the private equity job exodus, and other notable business headlines including leadership changes at Kohl’s and setbacks for Novo Nordisk.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. San Francisco Fed President Backs December Rate Cut

• Mary Daly's Position: Daly is advocating for an immediate rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting, citing a weakening jobs market as a more pressing concern than potential inflation spikes.
  • “Daly says she would cut rates because a worsening jobs market is more of a risk right now than a big increase in inflation.” (01:17)
• Context: Daly’s public divergence from Fed Chair Jerome Powell is unusual, making her stance significant. Powell is expected to play a deciding role among Fed officials.
• Market Response: Optimism for a December rate cut boosts equities; probability of a cut rises from 40% to 80% over the last week.
  • Market Impact:
    • NASDAQ: +2.7%
    • S&P: +1.6%
    • Dow: +0.4%
• Notable Quote:
  • “Growing hopes for a rate cut next month are helping revive stocks.” — Alex Osolleff (01:36)

2. Trump’s Ukraine Peace Plan: Territorial Concessions and Security Guarantees

Guest: Michael Gordon, WSJ National Security Correspondent

• Background: Talks in Geneva yield some common ground, but major decisions deferred to President Trump and Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy.
• Kyiv's Central Objection: Ukraine opposes ceding more of Donbas — especially areas it still controls — fearing vulnerability to future Russian attacks.
  • “This plan would require Ukraine to relinquish some of the Donbas that they still hold...and they've objected to that.” — Michael Gordon (00:39, 02:51)
• Key Ukrainian Demands:
  • European peacekeepers on Ukrainian soil
  • No constraints on Ukraine’s military size
  • Russia-backed plan seeks to bar European troops and cap Ukrainian army at 600,000
    • “They want European peacekeepers on Ukrainian soil as a deterrent … the other thing is they don't want any constraints on the size of their military.” — Michael Gordon (02:56)
• Russian Stance:
  • Little willingness to negotiate despite heavy casualties; focus remains on gaining territory.
    • “Right now, the Russians don't appear to be in much of a negotiating frame of mind.” — Michael Gordon (03:52)
• US Strategy Criticism:
  • The White House seen as pressuring Ukraine more than Russia.

Memorable Quote

• “This is fundamentally about sovereignty, Ukraine's sovereignty and Ukraine's security.” — Michael Gordon (02:51)

3. US-China Diplomacy: Xi Calls Trump

• First-Person Diplomacy: Xi Jinping personally calls President Trump, discussing Taiwan amid tensions with Japan.
  • “China's leader Xi Jinping initiated a phone call with President Trump to talk about Taiwan in a rare diplomatic outreach…” — Alex Osolleff (04:30)
• Regional Tension:
  • Japan's PM warns of war spillover if China takes Taiwan by force.
• White House Response:
  • Trump’s social post notes upcoming visits but omits mention of Taiwan or current diplomatic crises, raising concerns among US allies.

4. Other Political Headlines

• Legal Developments: Federal judge dismisses criminal charges against James Comey and Letitia James; Trump’s chosen prosecutor found unlawfully appointed.
  • “A federal judge has dismissed criminal charges against both former FBI Director James Comey and New York Attorney General Letitia James.” — Alex Osolleff (05:03)
• Healthcare Policy: Trump’s advisers considering a two-year Affordable Care Act subsidy extension to mitigate insurance cost increases.
• Sen. Mark Kelly Investigation:
  • Pentagon probes allegations after Kelly appears in a video urging troops to disobey unlawful orders.

5. Private Equity Exodus: Talent Fleeing Big Firms

Guest: Miriam Gottfried, WSJ private equity reporter

• Industry Shift:
  • Larger private equity firms become more institutional (“almost becoming bank like”), changing from their nimble, deal-focused origins.
  • “The biggest firms have become massive institutions that have kind of changed from what they originally were...now they're almost becoming bank like.” — Miriam Gottfried (07:26)
• Cyclical Problems:
  • Many big firms “stuck” with assets they can’t sell profitably; no realized profits means no “carried interest” for employees.
    • “Firms...bought a bunch of companies that they can't really sell profitably right now…” — Miriam Gottfried (07:39)
• Why Small Firms Look Better:
  • Focused portfolios, higher returns, and none of the legacy baggage hampering exits
    • “Smaller firms tend to be more focused … many of the smaller funds that we write about...are actually startups. That means they have none of these portfolio companies that they can't sell.” — Miriam Gottfried (08:19)
• Long-Term Risk:
  • The big firms’ culture and appeal might erode if top talent leaves for startup funds.
    • “If the best investors don't want to work for us anymore, what does that mean for the quality of the product we're able to deliver?” — Miriam Gottfried (08:50)

6. Business Briefs

• Kohl’s Names Permanent CEO: Michael Bender, interim CEO since May, is named permanent chief as retailer fights to end a sales slump.
• Novo Nordisk Alzheimer’s Setback: Clinical trials of an Ozempic-related pill fail to slow Alzheimer’s. Shares drop; Eli Lilly overtakes in obesity drug market.
• Tobacco in Pop Culture:
  • Despite declining U.S. smoking rates, depiction of tobacco in movies and songs is rising, worrying anti-smoking advocates.
  • “A new report says that cigarettes, cigars and other tobacco products appeared in about half of movies that came out last year, up 10% from 2023.” — Alex Osolleff (10:04)

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Mary Daly's Position:
  • “Daly says she would cut rates because a worsening jobs market is more of a risk right now than a big increase in inflation.” — Alex Osolleff (01:17)
• Ukraine Peace Plan:
  • “This is fundamentally about sovereignty, Ukraine's sovereignty and Ukraine's security.” — Michael Gordon (02:51)
  • “They want European peacekeepers on Ukrainian soil as a deterrent in case the Russians would attack again in the future.” — Michael Gordon (02:56)
  • “Right now, the Russians don't appear to be in much of a negotiating frame of mind.” — Michael Gordon (03:52)
• Private Equity Exodus:
  • “The biggest firms have become massive institutions...almost becoming bank like.” — Miriam Gottfried (07:26)
  • “Firms...bought a bunch of companies that they can't really sell profitably right now…” — Miriam Gottfried (07:39)
  • “If the best investors don't want to work for us anymore, what does that mean for the quality of the product we're able to deliver?” — Miriam Gottfried (08:50)

Useful Timestamps for Important Segments

• Daly’s Rate Cut Stance and Market Reaction: 00:55–02:00
• Ukraine Peace Plan Interview (Michael Gordon): 02:51–04:25
• US-China Diplomatic Update: 04:30–05:20
• Private Equity Exodus (Miriam Gottfried): 07:23–09:17
• Tobacco in Pop Culture: 10:04–11:04

Conclusion

This episode encapsulates a day of significant market movement, global political tensions, and evolving trends in the finance world. Highlights include Mary Daly's rare advocacy for an immediate Fed rate cut, a nuanced look at diplomatic wrangling over Ukraine and Taiwan, and a private equity industry metamorphosis that may shape future financial talent flows and firm performance. The episode closes with concise business headlines, maintaining the fast-paced, informative tone characteristic of WSJ’s What’s News.