Why the U.A.E. Is Breaking Up With OPEC

Summary

WSJ What’s News — PM Edition

Episode Date: April 28, 2026
Episode Title: Why the U.A.E. Is Breaking Up With OPEC

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Overview

This episode centers on the United Arab Emirates' (U.A.E.) surprising and consequential decision to exit OPEC, examining the reasons behind the move and the potential impact on the global oil market and OPEC's future. The episode also covers U.S. housing legislation and its effects on "build-to-rent" housing, legal developments regarding former FBI Director James Comey, the state of General Motors and the U.S. auto industry in the face of Chinese competition, volatile energy prices, and a ceremonial visit by King Charles to Washington.

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Main Story: U.A.E. Leaves OPEC

The Decision and Its Context

[00:56 - 03:35]

• Announcement: The United Arab Emirates (OPEC’s third largest producer, supplying 13% of OPEC’s capacity) is officially leaving the cartel effective May 1.
• Why Now?
  • U.A.E. wants to expand oil production capacity, but OPEC quotas restrict them.

    “Being in OPEC functions as a straitjacket. Right now they’re supposed to be producing around 3.4 million barrels a day … but they want to increase that by up to 5 million.”
    — Georgi Kanchev, [01:43]

  • Ongoing rift between U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia, the cartel’s dominant producer.
  • The shifting regional landscape amid the Iran war, which has damaged energy infrastructure and is forcing new alliances.
  • The U.A.E. is making a calculated decision that, long-term, it benefits more from producing freely outside the cartel.

Impact on OPEC and Oil Markets

[02:47 - 03:52]

• Blow to OPEC:
  • U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia are the two OPEC states with genuine spare production capacity.
  • U.A.E's exit removes vital flexibility for OPEC to manage future supply shocks.

    "They can ramp up production quickly … that is being obviously taken out now with U.A.E. leaving … decreases the flexibility of OPEC to manage the market, which they have done for decades."
    — Georgi Kanchev, [02:47]

• Oil Prices:
  • Immediate oil price impact is muted as regional exports are constrained due to the Strait of Hormuz.
  • In the longer term, U.A.E. free to ramp up production could lower prices.

    “If the U.A.E. increases its production, that would potentially add more oil to the market, which means prices could go down.”
    — Georgi Kanchev, [03:35]

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Other Top Business and Political Headlines

1. James Comey Indictment

[03:52 - 05:42]

• The Justice Department has secured a new indictment against former FBI Director James Comey.
• Charges relate to a social media post Comey made, perceived as a coded threat against President Trump.
  • He posted seashells in the pattern "8647"; officials interpreted this as "get rid of 47" (Trump is the 47th president).
• This follows a prior, dismissed case where Comey was charged with lying to Congress.

2. GM Earnings and Chinese Automakers’ Threat

[05:42 - 08:11]

• GM:
  • Q1 profits beat Wall Street expectations; boosted by lower costs, less EV investment, $500 million tariff refund.

    "We're well prepared with a portfolio... when we look at how consumer behavior might shift depending on how long the war lasts. But we just don't know."
    — Mary Barra, [05:42]

• Concerns Over Chinese Automakers:
  • U.S. lawmakers warn the impending Trump-Xi summit could result in easing restrictions on Chinese car imports.
  • Domestic manufacturers fear they can’t compete with lower-cost, tech-packed Chinese vehicles.

    "The main concern is domestic carmakers, as of now, can't compete. And that reality is what's led automakers to say it's an existential threat to the industry here."
    — Ryan Felton, [07:44]

3. AI Market Volatility

[08:17]

• Drop in stocks tied to AI, including Nvidia, Oracle, and Coreweave, after OpenAI misses internal targets.

4. U.S. Gas Prices and Iran Proposal

[08:17]

• Oil prices rose amid skepticism about Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
• U.S. gas prices hit a new war-induced average high: $4.18/gallon (AAA data).

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Housing Policy Shakeup

Senate Bill and "Build to Rent" Crisis

[09:34 - 11:23]

• This year’s Senate housing bill, intended to spur construction, contains a provision requiring “build to rent” firms to sell new homes within seven years.
• Result: developers have already halted at least 10,000 units; industry fears long-term viability.

  "There was one small provision that would require build to rent firms to sell any of their newly constructed homes within seven years... As a result, a lot of build to rent firms are contemplating the idea that if the Senate bill passes as is, this new growing sector of the rental market could go extinct, essentially."
  — Rebecca Pichotto, [10:07]

• The bill faces bipartisan concern, especially with upcoming midterms; a compromise is expected but remains in deadlock.

Ultra-Luxury Housing Highlight

[11:23]

• $400 million Los Angeles estate (70,000 sq. ft., Qatari royalty ties) is the most expensive U.S. home listing to date; seen as a signifier for the “uber-luxury” housing market.

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World & Politics

1. King Charles Addresses Congress

[12:28 - 13:14]

• King Charles visits Washington, participates in ceremony with President Trump.
• In Congress, Charles speaks on the shared history and enduring partnership between the U.K. and U.S.

  "Ours is a partnership born out of dispute, but no less strong for it... when we have found that way to agree, what great change is brought about not just for the benefit of our peoples, but of all peoples."
  — King Charles, [12:28]

2. Iranian Cyberattacks

[13:14]

• Iranian-linked hackers published personal details of over 2,000 U.S. Marines in the Persian Gulf.
• Pentagon confirms authenticity of some leaked information; investigation ongoing.

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Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On U.A.E. leaving OPEC:

  "Being in OPEC functions as a straitjacket... they want to be able to produce freely outside of the cartel."
  —Georgi Kanchev, [01:43]

• On OPEC’s diminished flexibility:

  “The UAE and Saudi Arabia, these are the only two countries that actually have spare capacity … That is being obviously taken out now with UAE leaving from May 1, which is just in a few days.”
  —Georgi Kanchev, [02:47]

• On U.S. auto market threat:

  "China’s carmakers are able to sell vehicles at very aggressive low prices, and the vehicles they’re selling are packed with a lot of cool new technology. The main concern is domestic carmakers ... can't compete."
  —Ryan Felton, [07:44]

• On housing market existential threat:

  “If the Senate bill passes as is, this new growing sector of the rental market could go extinct, essentially.”
  —Rebecca Pichotto, [10:07]

• King Charles on special relationship:

  “Ours is a partnership born out of dispute, but no less strong for it... what great change is brought about not just for the benefit of our peoples, but of all peoples.”
  —King Charles, [12:28]

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Segment Timestamps Overview

• U.A.E. OPEC exit: [00:56] - [03:52]
• Comey Indictment: [03:52] - [05:42]
• GM & Chinese Auto Threat: [05:42] - [08:11]
• AI stocks/Average Gas Price: [08:17]
• Build to Rent industry/ Senate bill: [09:34] - [11:23]
• Ultra-luxury housing market: [11:23]
• King Charles' address: [12:28] - [13:14]
• Iranian cyberattacks: [13:14]

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Episode Tone & Style

The episode maintains the measured, fact-focused, and brisk pace typical of The Wall Street Journal’s “What’s News,” presenting complex developments with accessible analysis and succinct, expert commentary.

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Summary Takeaway

This episode provides a sharp look at dramatic shifts in the energy sector, a brewing crisis for a key part of the U.S. housing market, legal and political stories making headlines, and the continuing challenges and cooperation shaping international relations. The U.A.E.'s OPEC exit and the broader implications for oil markets and geopolitics anchor a show underscored by economic, legislative, and diplomatic uncertainty.

Transcript

[IBM Executive]

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[Alex Osola]

the UAE is leaving opec. We'll get into what that means for the oil cartel and the oil market. Plus why a bill intended to create homes has led to an existential crisis for developers that build homes to rent them.

[Rebecca Pichotto]

A lot of build to rent firms are contemplating the idea that if the Senate bill passes as is, this new growing sector of the rental market could go extinct, essentially.

[Alex Osola]

And the Justice Department charges former FBI Director James Comey for a second. Tuesday, April 28th. I'm Alex Osola for the Wall Street Journal. This is the PM edition of what's News, the top headlines and business stories that move the world today. The United Arab Emirates said today that it would leave opec. It's a heavy blow to the oil cartel. The UAE is OPEC's third biggest producer and according to figures by the International Energy Agency, its exit takes away 13% of OPEC's production capacity. China. For more, I'm joined now by WSJ foreign correspondent Georgi Kanchev. Georgi, why is the UAE doing this and why now when the war with Iran has hurt a lot of energy infrastructure in the region?

[Georgi Kanchev]

One of the reasons is that they have a very ambitious investment program. They want to kind of increase their oil production capacity in the future. And being in OPEC functions as a straitjacket. Right now they're supposed to be producing around 3.4 million barrels a day. Of course, right now they're producing far less because of the crisis, but they want to increase that by up to 5 million. They want to be able to produce freely outside of the cartel. Another reason is that they've had kind of a rift with Saudi Arabia, which is the dominant producer in OPEC for a number of years, and all of that. Now we have the Iran war, of course, reshuffling the alliances of the region. Some said they're looking beyond the current war. The UAE seems to be making this calculated decision that longer term they can increase output by a lot.

[Alex Osola]

This move also comes at a time when the US's rise as an energy exporter has kind of diminished OPEC's influence on energy markets. Where does the UAE's departure leave OPEC?

[Georgi Kanchev]

This decision by the UAE to leave is a big blow to opec because ultimately this is the third biggest producer. Also important here is that the UAE and Saudi Arabia, these are the only two countries that actually have spare capacity, meaning that they can ramp up production quickly. All the other countries are producing kind of close to their potential limit, which means that in another situation of supply shock, they can increase production quickly. That is being obviously taken out now with uae leaving from May 1, which is just in a few days. And that obviously decreases the flexibility of OPEC to manage the market, which they have done for decades.

[Alex Osola]

Looking at oil prices today, they don't seem super affected by the announcement. But what about in the future? How could the UAE's departure from OPEC affect energy markets?

[Georgi Kanchev]

Right now there is really not much of an impact precisely because all the countries in the Gulf are constricted by the Strait of Hormuz. But in the longer run, if the UAE increases its production, that would be potentially add more oil to the market, which means prices could go down.

[Alex Osola]

That was WSJ foreign correspondent Georgi Kanchev. The Justice Department has secured a new indictment against former FBI Director James Comey, a prominent critic of President Trump. Prosecutors charged Comey with threatening Trump based on a photo Comey posted on social media last year. In the photo, seashells were arranged in the numbers 8647. Trump officials at the time said it was a threat to encourage killing Trump, as 86 is old time slang for get rid of and Trump is the 47th president. Comey said then that it didn't occur to him that the post would be read as a threat. He and lawyers representing him didn't immediately respond to requests for comment. The case is the Justice Department's second attempt to prosecute Comey. He was charged in September with lying to Congress, but a judge dismissed that case. Federal Communications Commission Chairman Brendan Carr is launching an early review of Disney's broadcast television licenses. Disney owns eight ABC TV outlets. The review of the licenses comes a day after President Trump called for ABC late night host Jimmy Kimmel to be fired. The review is an outgrowth of an earlier FCC probe into Disney's DEI initiatives. A person familiar with the FCC's plans says that the review, coming so soon after Kimmel's fight with the administration, is a coincidence. Disney says that the record demonstrates that it's qualified to hold the licenses in earnings. General Motors beat Wall street estimates for profitability in the first quarter and raised its guidance for the year Helping boost its bottom line were lower costs from its pullback in electric vehicles, along with an expected $500 million tariff refund. So far, GM says consumers still want its larger trucks and SUVs despite higher oil prices. But CEO Mary Barra says the automakers vehicle lineup can handle changes in consumer preferences.

[Mary Barra]

We're well prepared with a portfolio. I'd stand against anyone when we look at what how consumer behavior might shift depending on how long the war lasts. But we just don't know.

[Alex Osola]

And in other auto news, Chinese automakers have been trying to break into the US for years. More than 70 Democratic representatives sent a letter to President Trump today to keep the pressure on China. They say any effort to lower barriers for Chinese cars is a threat to US Manufacturing workers and national security. Ryan Felton covers the automotive industry for the Journal and joins me now. Ryan, China's carmakers have been largely kept out of the US because of tariffs on vehicle imports and a ban on Chinese connected vehicle software. So why are lawmakers and U.S. companies worried that might change?

[Ryan Felton]

The biggest thing right now is is the summit is coming over the next few weeks.

[Alex Osola]

The meeting in May between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, right?

[Ryan Felton]

Yes. This upcoming meeting, you know, could have some stakes for China's automakers. That's what's pushing some of these lawmakers.

[Alex Osola]

Where does President Trump stand on this issue right now?

[Ryan Felton]

There isn't the most consistent messaging from President Trump on this. A few months ago, he came to Detroit for a speech, and this remark basically was him saying, I would welcome any Chinese automakers to come here and build in the United States. He's also made a lot of pointed remarks about the Chinese auto industry and what it's done elsewhere. He said in an interview that the 100% tariff, tariff applied to Chinese EVs was the one good thing he thinks Joe Biden did. So there's some conflict in those two points, like would he welcome them still to build here or is he coming around to the idea that they should be kept out at all costs?

[Alex Osola]

Part of what's driving the letter from lawmakers today is that US Automakers are very concerned about China and Chinese carmakers. Why is that? What is the threat to the domestic industry?

[Ryan Felton]

China's carmakers are able to sell vehicles at very aggressive low prices, and the vehicles they're selling are packed with a lot of cool new technology. The main concern is domestic carmakers, as of now, can't compete. And that reality is what's led automakers to say it's an existential threat to the industry here.

[Alex Osola]

That was WSJ reporter Ryan Felton. Thanks so much, Ryan.

[Ryan Felton]

Thanks for having me.

[Alex Osola]

Stocks linked to the AI boom dropped today after as you heard on this morning's show, OpenAI has missed internal revenue and user targets. That meant declines in Nvidia, Oracle and Coreweave. The NASDAQ led losses in the three major indexes today and closed down 0.9%. Meanwhile, oil prices gained after an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was met with skepticism from President Trump, and gas prices in the US have reached another wartime high. According to AAA, the average price is now $4.18 cents a gallon. Coming up, King Charles is in Washington playing up transatlantic ties during a strained moment in the special relationship. That's after the break.

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[Alex Osola]

The Trump administration and Congress have been trying to tackle the issue of home affordability this year. One measure, a Senate housing bill, was meant to create new housing. But even though the bill isn't law yet, it's already having a chilling effect on one part of the real estate market, the build to rent industry. Housing policy lobby groups say that developers have put at least 10,000 new housing units on hold, likely a sliver of the impact across the industry. WSJ housing reporter Rebecca Pichotto says developers are reacting to a provision inside the bill.

[Rebecca Pichotto]

So the Senate passed this landmark housing bill and touted it as something that was going to make it easier and faster to produce new housing. But there was one small provision that would require build to rent firms to sell any of their newly constructed homes within seven years of building them. Developers of these build to rent projects say that these are assets that they see as long term investments that they want to generate profit off of for many, many years to come. This idea that within seven years you'd have to sell your entire portfolio off has frozen the pipeline for financing for new investment. So as a result, a lot of bill to rent firms are contemplating the idea that if the Senate bill passes as is, this new growing sector of the rental market could go extinct.

[Alex Osola]

Essentially, Rebecca says that it's not clear what will happen with the legislation.

[Rebecca Pichotto]

The prospect that this one provision could threaten the life of the entire Senate bill, I don't think anyone wants that, especially given the midterm elections coming up. Everyone wants a housing win to campaign on, so there's a sense that a deal will get worked out, but things are very much still kind of in a deadlock.

[Alex Osola]

Meanwhile, the ultra luxury housing market is reaching new heights. A Los Angeles estate with ties to Qatari royals is hitting the market for $400 million. The 70,000 square foot property is the most expensive home listed for sale in the US and could propel the uber luxury housing market. Whether you're looking to spend $400 million or $400,000 on a home, we want to hear from you. Are worries about mortgage rates, inflation or the economy affecting your search? And what are prices like where you live? Send a voice memo to wnpod s j.com or leave a voicemail with your name and location at 212-416-4328. We might use it on the show Britain's King Charles is in Washington after a military ceremony today with President Trump, during which the President praised the friendship between the U.S. and U.K. charles addressed a joint session of Congress. During his speech, Charles alluded to tensions between the UK and its former colony and urged the two nations to continue to work together.

[King Charles]

Ours is a partnership born out of dispute, but no less strong for it. So perhaps in this example we can discern that our nations are in fact instinctively like minded, a product of the common democratic legal and social traditions in which our governance is rooted to this day. Drawing on these values and traditions time and again, our two countries have always found ways to come together and by Jove, Mr. Speaker, when we have found that way to agree, what great change is brought about not just for the benefit of our peoples, but of all peoples.

[Alex Osola]

On the war in the Middle East Iranian hackers have targeted hundreds of US Service members and officials in recent cyber attacks. Handala Hack Team, which is linked to the Iranian government, today claim to have published the names and other personal details of more than 2,000 Marines stationed in the Persian Gulf region. The Pentagon is investigating, but early indications suggest that at least some of the leaked information is authentic. And that's what's news for this Tuesday afternoon. Today's show is produced by Anthony Bansy, Danny Lewis and Alyssa Luckpat, with supervising producer Tali Arbel. I'm Alex Osola for the Wall Street Journal. We'll be back with a new show tomorrow morning.

[Mary Barra]

Thanks for listening. Foreign

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