Why This Economist Says Government Economic Surveys Can’t Be Replaced

Summary

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WSJ What’s News — “Why This Economist Says Government Economic Surveys Can’t Be Replaced”

Episode Date: September 7, 2025

Brief Overview

In this episode of WSJ's Take on the Week, hosts Gunjan Banerjee and Telus Demos dissect recent turmoil in markets and consumer confidence data with Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. The episode addresses why consumer surveys, especially those run by government agencies, are both irreplaceable and critical to investors, policymakers, and businesses in understanding the true state of the economy—especially during periods of volatility and uncertainty over issues like Federal Reserve independence, tariffs, and job growth.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Jitters: Bond Yields, Fed Independence, and Tariffs

• Bond Market Volatility:
  • 30-year US Treasury yields hit 5%, rare in recent memory, creating investor anxiety (01:30).
  • Similar moves in global bond markets: UK gilts at highs not seen since 1998, similar patterns in France and Japan.
  • Concerns tied to possible erosion of Federal Reserve independence after President Trump’s attempted firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook (02:35).
• Investor Concerns:
  • Fear that the Fed could become an extension of the presidency, potentially leading to unchecked inflation and “debased” returns on long-term bonds (03:19).
  • Spikes in gold prices as a hedge, hitting $3,500/oz with some bulls talking $5,000 (03:19).
• Tariffs:
  • Recent court rulings question the legality of Trump’s tariffs. Focus on how new and existing tariffs could impact inflation (04:22).
  • Shipping costs dropping may hint at lower import volumes and more cautious business sentiment (04:51).

2. The Squeeze on Consumers: Retail Data & Sentiment

• Retail Earnings as Economic Indicators:
  • Kohl’s reports consumers “trading down” and feeling squeezed (05:50).
  • “When Dollar Tree is doing really well…that’s like a recession indicator almost.” – Gunjan Banerjee (06:17)
• September Stock Volatility:
  • Historically a tough month for markets, as noted by both hosts (05:26).
• Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board):
  • Latest data shows rising fears about jobs and personal income, offsetting more positive takes on current business conditions (06:22).
  • Confidence index is middling: above post-recession lows, below post-pandemic highs.

3. The Stock Market’s Outsize Influence on Sentiment

• Gunjan suggests household wealth is more tied to stock performance than ever before, creating a feedback loop that could affect consumer sentiment and spending (07:11).
• Nonetheless, there remains a puzzling disconnect: the stock market and employment are strong, but some confidence measures remain muted.

4. Special Guest: Dana Peterson, Economist at The Conference Board

Dana Peterson explains the nuanced realities behind consumer confidence, inflation worries, and the irreplaceable role of government economic surveys.

a. Reading Conflicting Consumer Signals

• Some Americans anticipate recession despite rising stocks; they feel insecure about jobs but positive about personal finances (10:14).

"When consumers see things like payroll slowing…they conflate that with their own job prospects." — Dana Peterson (10:14)

• Labor market at “full employment” means less hiring and firing—good in macro terms, but potentially unsettling to individuals (10:14).

b. Inflation vs. Price Level

• Consumers are more sensitive to the absolute level of prices than the rate of increase (11:28).

"Bread may be ten dollars, whereas a few years ago it was five…even a slight increase…hurts and consumers feel that." — Dana Peterson (11:28)

c. The “Vibe Session”: What’s Real?

• The “vibe session” (a term coined by Kyla Scanlon for a stagnating-feeling economy despite OK numbers) was real, says Peterson—but depends on survey components.
• Conference Board’s measure focuses on jobs/income; Michigan focuses more on inflation fears. That accounts for different readings (12:49).

d. Tariffs and Consumer Behavior

• Consumers realize tariffs drive prices up; they remember paying more during earlier trade wars (14:19).

"Consumers understand that tariffs are not paid by foreign countries, but ultimately it's paid by them." — Dana Peterson (14:19)

• Consumers are buying fewer imported durable goods and prioritizing essentials (14:19).

e. Economic Prospects: What’s Needed for Improvement?

• With more tariff clarity and a solid labor market, confidence could improve—but investments in supply chains take years to yield results.
• Changes in the federal budget (potential social benefit and tax cuts) add fresh uncertainty (15:27).

f. Why Consumer Sentiment Matters

• It answers the Econ 101 question: “What are we making, how, and for whom?” If consumers pull back, demand suffers, and companies/investors feel it (17:28).

"If there's no one to buy your product, then there's no point in making it and there's no point in having a company." — Dana Peterson (17:38)

g. What Drives Confidence Indices?

• Declines in labor market optimism or bad job reports likely depress confidence indices more than inflation does (19:23).
• Different indices react to different drivers (e.g., Michigan’s more inflation-focused; Conference Board’s on labor).

5. The Future and Reliability of Government Surveys

• On Survey Revisions:
  • Fast data means frequent revisions—an inherent tradeoff (20:55).

"Revisions are the compromise for getting data quickly…if markets want data on a high frequency basis, they have to know there’s likelihood of revisions." — Dana Peterson (20:55)

• Survey Methods:
  • Conference Board moved from paper/phone to online, ensuring statistically representative samples via paid vendors (22:05).
  • Emphasis on cleaning, adjusting, and auditing data for accuracy (22:05).
• Can Private Data Replace Government Surveys?
  • Private data often benchmarks against public data; only government has the scale and resources for accuracy (23:34).

"There’s really not a good replacement for government data…always room for improvement, but very difficult to replace the service the government is providing." — Dana Peterson (23:34)

6. What Should We Watch Most Closely Right Now?

• According to Dana Peterson, labor market indicators are the most crucial:

"If consumers are not confident about having a job in the future, then they will cut back on their spending, and that will also place a drag on the economy." (25:26)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the bond market’s ‘smart money’ reputation:

"Investors still have this kind of idea that the bond market is sort of smarter…more perceptive in some ways than the stock market." — Telus Demos (02:00)

• On consumer habits in tough times:

"When Dollar Tree is doing really well…that’s like a recession indicator almost." — Gunjan Banerjee (06:17)

• On data revisions:

"Revisions are the compromise for getting data quickly…if markets want data on a high frequency basis, they have to know there’s likelihood of revisions." — Dana Peterson (20:55)

• On why government surveys are irreplaceable:

"There’s really not a good replacement for government data…always room for improvement, but very difficult to replace the service the government is providing." — Dana Peterson (23:34)

• On the importance of jobs:

"If people are working, they can kind of weather things. If they’re not, well, then look out below." — Telus Demos (25:58)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:30] — Market volatility: Bond yields and global impact
• [02:35] — Fed independence, political uncertainty
• [05:50] — Retail earnings show consumer stress
• [06:22] — Consumer confidence index: Latest trends
• [07:11] — Stock market’s rising importance for sentiment
• [10:14] — Dana Peterson on conflicting consumer signals
• [11:28] — Inflation vs. price level anxieties explained
• [12:49] — The “vibe session” and why indices disagree
• [14:19] — Tariffs and how consumers really pay
• [15:27] — What’s needed for confidence to recover
• [17:28] — Why sentiment readings matter for markets
• [19:23] — What drives consumer confidence indicators
• [20:55] — Survey data: Process, revisions, trust
• [22:05] — Modernizing survey collection
• [23:34] — Can private measures ever replace government stats?
• [25:26] — Most vital indicator: Jobs and labor market

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Final Takeaway

This episode explores the interconnectedness of consumer sentiment, labor market health, and economic indicators, underscoring the vital and irreplaceable role of government economic surveys. While markets react to headlines, it’s the granular, often unseen work of data-gathering and analysis that reveals whether Americans will keep spending, investing, and believing in the economy. As Dana Peterson sums up: keep your eyes on the jobs numbers—they’re the engine driving everything else.

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Transcript

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[Kate Bullivant]

Hey, what's News Listeners? It's Sunday, September 7th. I'm Kate Bullivant for the Wall Street Journal. This is what's News Sunday. On today's show, we're bringing you an episode of WSJ's take on the Week where co hosts Gunjin Banerjee and teles demos dive into markets, the economy and finance. One of the big questions on investors minds lately is how consumers are feeling about the economy. In this epis, Dana Peterson from the conference board digs into the latest consumer confidence index and well, it's a mixed bag. Plus they get the importance of survey based data after President Trump dismissed the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics last month. Take a listen and if you like what you hear, we've got a link to WSJ's take on the week in the show. Notes.

[Gunjan Banerjee]

Hi everyone. Welcome to WSJ's take on the Week. I'm Gunjan Banerjee.

[Telus Demos]

And I'm Telus Demos. So Gunjan, it seems like the bond market is back in focus. We had a few moves this week which really grabbed everyone's attention. First of all, we had the U.S. treasury, the 30 year U.S. treasury bond, the long term U.S. bond market, those yields hit 5%, a level that kind of scares everybody that only rarely has been hit in recent years.

[Gunjan Banerjee]

Everyone freaks out when like yields start going crazy.

[Telus Demos]

Right.

[Gunjan Banerjee]

I think the past few years we've seen these moments of turmoil in the bond market have sometimes been accompanied by volatility in the stock market.

[Telus Demos]

Absolutely. No, I think investors still have this kind of idea that the bond market is sort of smarter or kind of more long term and kind of more perceptive in some ways than the stock market.

[Gunjan Banerjee]

Right.

[Telus Demos]

The smart money is in bonds. But you had similar moves around the world too, which is I think really what put it on everyone's radar. You had UK gilts, 30 year UK government bonds known as gilts. Those were hitting their highest level since 1998, those yields. And then you saw the same jitters in France and Japan too. Yields hit multi decade highs. What's going on? Why is the bond market doing this? Do we know?

[Gunjan Banerjee]

I feel like there's a lot of things happening in the bond market right now. Domestically, there are some concerns about Federal Reserve independence. With President Trump attempting to fire Lisa Cook. We're seeing that play out right now. She's filing a suit against the government saying, hey, you can't fire me. The Justice Department is opening an investigation into her. So it feels like that's driving a lot of the volatility in the market recently, and it hasn't even been that jarring yet. I think we may still see more volatility stemming from concerns about Federal Reserve independence. If that is tarnished, that could lead to higher inflation, could lead to more volatility in bond yields. And it's literally something that affects every investor on the planet.

[Telus Demos]

And I guess the fear there, just kind of putting myself in the markets for frame of mind, is that if the Fed is in the future going to be an extension of the, of, of, of the president, right? Then, you know, when the President wants rates to come down, then, you know, the market's feeling is that like, well, then the Fed will not act judiciously to slow the economy when things are running too hot. You'll have inflation and that will sort of, you know, the money that you're being paid back on those long term fixed bonds, you're not getting paid back the same dollars because the currency has been debased. And you've seen corresponding moves in gold, right? Gold hit another this past week. Some bulls were now talking about $5,000 an ounce. It's now around like 3,500 or so, just for context. So that's like another huge move there. Tariffs are in the news because the, you know, trade court decision ruling that President Trump's reciprocal tariffs were basically sort of illegal use of his power. And an appeals court upheld that. President Trump wants to take that to the Supreme Court. Does that have a link to what's going on in the bond market too?

[Gunjan Banerjee]

I think a lot of people are still waiting to see the extent to which tariffs will ripple through inflation. We might get more on that in the coming week with CPI data. And I think it's showing up in some subtle ways that people may not be watching. I was reading that worldwide the average cost of shipping a 40 foot container has fallen for 11 consecutive weeks to around $2,100. This signals a shift in behavior among all these different parties.

[Telus Demos]

And so that means what, that the people are not importing as much? That they're really changing how they do business?

[Gunjan Banerjee]

It shows that, yeah, it shows that people are being more cautious about how they're navigating this time. And that even though, you know, on a headline level we're not seeing this big jump in inflation, these tariffs are impacting businesses, they're impacting manufacturers and retailers.

[Telus Demos]

Meanwhile, of course, we have the stock market, that little neighbor of the bond market. And you know, the stock market has sort of churned along. I don't think really any of the moves lately have been of a kind of huge shift in sentiment and I.

[Gunjan Banerjee]

Think a little September volatility we started with after Labor Day. And people do expect this to be kind of a rocky month typically.

[Telus Demos]

And you've pointed out that September is often a tough time for stocks, right? That's exactly the case.

[Gunjan Banerjee]

Yeah, there can be. It can be one of the most volatile months, I think the autumn months typically are.

[Telus Demos]

Well, the consumer is of course in focus as, as always in the stock market. And we had some recent retail reports that were kind of interesting. Right. I guess.

[Gunjan Banerjee]

You know, the Journal had this great article about how the midd. The middle class consumer is feeling squeezed right now. I mean we saw that in Kohl's recent earnings report where their leaders said, hey, people are trading down to cheaper products and their lower and middle income consumers are really feeling crunched right now.

[Telus Demos]

And you saw the boost in Dollar Tree sales. Right? Dollar Tree being like the basically the cheapest place you can go to shop. So that's always kind of what people expect to see there.

[Gunjan Banerjee]

Yeah, that's like a recession indicator almost right. When Dollar Tree is doing really well.

[Telus Demos]

So of course all this brings us to consumer sentiment, consumer confidence. How is the consumer feeling about the economy right now? And we had the most recent update from the conference board, which is a think tank for business leaders and they, they have a widely followed confidence measure and their August report was mixed. Right. They said quote, rising worries about jobs and income offset more optimistic views of current and future business conditions. Right. So they're kind of headline index is about where it's been over the last few years, which was lower than it was at kind of that post pandemic peak of confidence, but also well above where it was during those like 2010 great recession kind of lows were. Right. So like it's about kind of average, I'd say in recent years.

[Gunjan Banerjee]

I have this thesis that the stock market is more important for sentiment than it's ever been before. And tell us, you and I have talked about this how stock holdings as a share of financial assets, household net worths are at records and just makes me wonder, right. Does that mean that the stock market at a record Means that all these 401k millionaires, that empowers them to spend, it makes them feel better about the market. So I feel like there is more of a feedback loop between the stock market sentiment and spending than there might have been in the past.

[Telus Demos]

So all of that positivity sometimes doesn't show up in the data. Right. The Journal had a recent survey of its own, and they talked to some people who've looked at common confidence and said that you would think that based on where the stock market is, that people would feel confident. And like you saw, you know, like I said in the, in the conference board, you know, people think business conditions are improving. Right. And part of that is the stock market. But again, you still have some data, especially the sort of the Michigan sort of index showing sentiment being very low. So I just think there's a bit of a mystery or a disconnect. And I'm having trouble kind of sorting out what is actually going on with the consumer because, you know, people are buying, the stock market's up. The job market is mostly, it's a weird time. But sentiment is down by some measures, but not by others. So I called in an expert.

[Gunjan Banerjee]

You phoned a friend?

[Telus Demos]

I phoned a friend. Phoned a friend. Our guest this week is Dana Peterson. She did economic research at Citigroup for a long time and now she is the chief economist at the conference board. And she's going to help us figure out what's going on in consumer confidence and explain some of these ups and downs and disconnects and really just talk through why. We also talk about consumer confidence so much, what it means for investors and also, you know, how we should think about survey data these days. And we're going to have that when we come back after the break. Nearly home Isn't home where we all want to be? Reba, here for realtor.com, the Pro's number one most trusted app. A dream home isn't a dream home if it comes with a nightmare commute. That's why realtor.com has real commute so you can search by drive time. Download the realtor.com app today. Cause you're nearly home. Make it real with realtor.com pro's number.

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[Telus Demos]

So I'm here today with Dana Peterson. She is the chief economist and leader of the Economy Strategy and Finance center at the Commerc Conference Board. Dana, welcome to the show.

[Dana Peterson]

Thanks so much for having me.

[Telus Demos]

One thing I noticed was that People were getting more optimistic about like what, what, what you guys term business conditions, but they were getting a little more pessimistic about things like job availability. Do people feel like the overall economy is good but not for them? Help us kind of read through some of these kind of conflicting signals.

[Dana Peterson]

There are a few people think we are in a recession, but as you said, there are many who still think that there might be a recession at some point over the next 12 months. But they are seeing stock markets rise and they associate that with business conditions improving. When it comes to themselves, yes, they are very worried about jobs. Certainly when you look at the number of jobs that are available from the Jolts data, there's really not that much. But we have to understand that when the economy is at full employment, you're not going to have a lot of hiring or a lot of job openings, but you're also not going to see a lot of firing or quitting. And so those are good dynamics. But still, when consumers see things like payroll slowing over the course of the last few months, they conflate that with their own job prospects. But the interesting thing is that they do believe that their incomes are still very, very good. And also many people believe that their personal finances are in good shape, not only now, but will continue to be.

[Telus Demos]

What's the real story on inflation? Is it something that is really kind of picking up and changing how people behave? Or is it, is it really not something we see yet in the economy?

[Dana Peterson]

For consumers, it's probably a little less about inflation, but the price level. So even though prices are not rising as quickly as they did over the last few years, the level of prices are still very high. It's still the case that, you know, bread may be ten dollars, whereas a few years ago it was five, and now even a slight increase, a two, two and a half percent increase, you know, that hurts and that and consumers see and feel that. And so I think a lot of the discomfort is that they know that tariffs induce inflation and that inflation means that higher prices will be higher on top of where they already are.

[Telus Demos]

So I wanted to go back a little bit and talk about this idea of the Vibe session. You know, we had Kyla Scanlon on this show. She was the economic commentator who coined that term. And it's a widely kind of talked about phenomenon, which is that while the economy is mostly doing okay, price growth has slowed. People don't feel good about the economy. But in the conference Board's indicators versus those that are put out by the University of Michigan's their consumer sentiment survey. The conference sports indicators never really looked that bad, even in the 22, 23 years. What, what does that tell us about the vibe session? Was there really such a thing in your view?

[Dana Peterson]

I think there was a vibe session. And the biggest difference between our measure and the University of Michigan's, at least the overall measure, are the components. So for example, their overall measure has more components that point to inflation and recession, whereas our headline has components that allude to the labor market, business conditions and income. No inflation. But we do have inflation measures and certainly all those measures spiked over the last few years because consumers are feeling inflation and also they complained a lot in their write ins about inflation. Nonetheless, our measure did not fall because while consumers may have had mixed feelings about business conditions, they were still working, so the labor market was still in very good shape for them. And also their incomes are rising. And again, a lot of that's due to the fact that we had labor shortages and also lots of people retiring. And so companies were doing whatever they can, throwing money at their workers to attract really great talent and also to keep the talent they had.

[Telus Demos]

It seems like tariffs are really central to consumers perceptions of the economy right now. And so when you say we're not in a vibe session anymore, I guess part of what you're saying is that consumers have a serious concern about how tariffs will impact both prices and also maybe their, you know, their, their job prospects.

[Dana Peterson]

Absolutely. Yes. Consumers understand that tariffs are not paid by foreign countries, but ultimately it's paid by them. And companies are saying, and they are actually doing that, they're going to pass those higher costs on to whoever's next in the pipeline. And ultimately it lands at the feet of consumers. So consumers understand that and they remember that from 2018 and 2019. And so consumers are buying fewer durable goods that are imported. They're focusing more on necessary services such as financial insurance or car insurance or even pet care, you have to feed your pets. But they're spending less on highly discretionary types of services. And businesses look at that and they see demand destruction and businesses still need to make their profits. So ultimately that may mean in terms of after they pass the higher costs on cutting costs internally, which could mean labor.

[Telus Demos]

So let's say that tariffs don't have that effect. When will consumers maybe start to feel better about the economy if these things don't kind of materialize?

[Dana Peterson]

Well, we have to remember that there are tariffs in place. There's a 10% tariff on everything and certain countries have even higher tariffs. So it's already there and companies are passing those costs along and they probably will continue to do so. Once we have a better or better clarity on what the tariffs looks like against all economies, it could be on average slightly higher than where we are now. And I think also people have been lulled into a sense of calm because many of the tariffs have been delayed. So at some point this is going to end and it is going to land in inflation. But let's say that, you know, the labor market still holds up, then I think consumers will start to feel a little bit better. But again, you know, in terms of making up for lost consumption and also business investment, that's difficult to do. And indeed, even if businesses do invest more in building out factories and pipelines and supply chains within the US that takes a while. It takes five to 10 years to build a chip factory. So that's not something that we're going to see returns on in the short run. So I think a lot of it has to do with timing. And then also, let's not forget about the budget bill where the budget bill is anticipated to provide maybe a tenth or two in terms of growth in 2026, but in 2027 and even at the end of 2026 it starts to weigh on the economy where consumers who may have been receiving no taxes on tips, well, maybe they were also receiving social, social benefits and those things are going to be cut. So I think there's, there's a lot of uncertainty.

[Telus Demos]

Why does consumer confidence or consumer sentiment matter? Why is it an indicator that, that we should be paying attention to and building into our predictions for the market or the economy? Why should investors overall care about consumer confidence? We certainly talk about it a lot, but I'm not sure I understand exactly what it's sort of most useful for as an indicator.

[Dana Peterson]

I guess it goes back to what, how and for whom. What are you making? How are you going to make it and who's going to buy it?

[Telus Demos]

And the key thing for corporations, classic college economics, right?

[Dana Peterson]

Yes, that was the first day of Econ 101. But if there's no one to buy your product, then there's no point in making it and there's no point in having a company. And so consumer facing companies or even companies that are intermediaries need to understand what consumers are thinking. Sometimes what they think doesn't match what they do. And that's why I suggest that people just, just don't look at the headline, but look in the details. So for example, like you said, our Measure didn't really move that much when inflation was raging. But again, you know, people were employed. And so if consumers are fearing their jobs or their employment, then they tend to pull back. That is real. And they start economizing. And certainly that means demand destruction for companies. And so if companies get a whiff that consumers aren't happy and that even if they're not being let go, but they're holding back on spending, then that impacts their bottom lines. Not every index, even in our own survey, is necessarily leading. Some of them are reactionary. But a number of measures have shown that when consumer confidence does crater, and also it's linked to the labor market, that that portends slower economic growth in the future.

[Telus Demos]

So the forward picture for sentiment sounds like it might be kind of complicated. Right. On the one hand, you've got inflation expectations that might tick up and that might drive some indicators. Whereas, you know, the labor market, whether we get a good or a bad jobs report, I mean, that might drive, that might tell a different story for, for some of your indicators. So what, what do you think we might see play out over the next, you know, the next couple of indicator releases?

[Dana Peterson]

Yes. Just thinking about Michigan again, their headline contains a number of indicators that relate to inflation. And we saw in the most recent inflation reading for personal consumption expenditures that inflation is rising both overall and also less volatile components like food and energy. And indeed, when we look where inflation is rising, it's definitely rising among goods, especially those goods that would be imported from abroad. So I would imagine that that might put downward pressure on Michigan's measure. For our measure, again, our measure does not, our headline does not include inflation. Adverse job market data could cause our measure to weaken at the end of September because consumers will perceive that as a signal that companies are now looking to let people go. And they might be next.

[Telus Demos]

Dana, I wanted to ask you about survey based economic data. The conference board does surveys. Lots of economic data is based on surveys. And of course, when there were the revisions to the jobs report, President Trump and some of his allies were pretty upset about the way that economic data is collected. And we have actually been having a debate for a long time about how to continue doing good survey research in an age where, you know, people don't have landlines anymore. You can't call them up in the same way. How has the conference board dealt with kind of changes in survey based research and can we still really rely on it as an economic indicator?

[Dana Peterson]

I think what we need to understand is that revisions are the compromise for getting data Quickly. Right. So most people want to know what's happening with retail sales, inflation, trade in real time. And so governments try to gather that data and then publish it as soon as they can. But it also means they don't have all the information because it takes time for all these surveys to come back. And also, when you think about all the different indicators that the government produces, there are hundreds, maybe even thousands of people who are all playing a role in gathering that data, then cleaning it, removing outliers and making sure it's seasonally adjusted properly, and then testing it to make sure that it's telling the proper story before it gets released. And you can only do so much of that in a month's or even a week's time. And so if markets want to have data that's, you know, comes out on a high frequency basis, they have to know that there's likelihood of revisions.

[Telus Demos]

How have you changed what you do to make sure that you're still reaching the number of people that you can, that you need to, you know, efficiently?

[Dana Peterson]

Yes, well, we have switched from paper and phone surveys to online surveys, but we also will pay survey vendors to ensure that we have the right number of responses and that those responses are representative of the demographics of the United States. So there's a lot of effort that goes in. And then once we get the data back, we still have to clean it and make sure that it's accurate in telling the proper story and that the story is consistent with historical data. And so, yes, you must advance in terms of your technology and the ways that you collect data. But there's also a lot of high tech going on and making sure that data, once it reaches your mailbox or your data redistributor. That is correct. And so there's no easy way to produce data, but we need to take the time and the care to make sure that the data are believable and accurate.

[Telus Demos]

Some people have suggested that we switch to more kind of private measures of the economy. Right. Companies that collect a lot of data about, you know, how many people are looking for jobs, you know, might be doing, you know, might be typing Google searches for, you know, find me a job, things like that. Do you think that that could replace government data at any point in the near future, or is there something different about the way that the government collects data that still makes it the benchmar, you know, even if it has to modernize in some ways?

[Dana Peterson]

Well, private data are important, but oftentimes private data providers benchmark off of government indicators. And so there's still a strong place for the government. And let's also think about the scope and the scale and the cost. There's no other entity on the planet like the US Government that has the resources in terms of people and the dollars, the amount of money, billions of dollars to produce data and also the ability to ensure that the data makes sense. And so there's really not a good replacement for government data. Can it be improved? Absolutely and always and at all times. The bls, the BEA are working to improve their survey techniques and also how they clean and prepare the data for public distribution. So I think there's always room for improvement, but it would be very difficult to replace the service that the government is providing in terms of giving government data that we can trust.

[Telus Demos]

We're going to take a quick break, and when we come back, we've got one last question for Dana Peterson of the Conference board. All right, we're back. We've got one last question for Dana Peterson. She's the chief economist at the Conference Board. Dana, one thing I've noticed is that when, when one looks at consumer sentiment and confidence data, there's actually a lot of the kind of sub indicators within that. You have people's perceptions of the job market, of prices, of the likelihood of recession, of their personal economy versus the national economy. Of all those things, which is the one that you think is really important to pay attention to right now, what should markets and investors and economists be focused on at this very moment?

[Dana Peterson]

I think the labor market indicators are the most important to focus on. Again, if consumers are not confident about having a job in the future, then they will cut back on their spending, and that will also place a drag on the economy. So as long as consumers have buoyant views of their not only the labor market in general, but also their employment prospects, then we should see improvement in confidence. But if consumers believe that they're going to be laid off, then they are going to pull back and that's going to weigh on the economy.

[Telus Demos]

That's very interesting because I know, you know, I've covered kind of a lot of lending companies for a long time. And, and they often say the same thing. You know, you can look at whatever indicator you want, but it's really jobs, jobs. If people are working, they can kind of weather things. If they're not, well, then look out below. Dana Peterson, thank you so much for joining us. This has been a very interesting conversation.

[Dana Peterson]

Thanks for having me.

[Telus Demos]

And that's everything you need to know to take on your week. If you want more of our show, check us out on YouTube. The show is produced by Anthony Banci, Jessica Fenton, and Michael Lavelle. Michael Lavelle and Jessica Fenton are our sound designers. Michael also wrote our theme music. Aisha Al Muslim is our development producer. Chris Zinsley is our deputy editor. And Philana Patterson is the head of news audio for the Wall Street Journal. For even more, head to WSJ.com I'm Telus Dimos.

[Gunjan Banerjee]

And I'm Gunjan Banerjee. Until next time.

[Telus Demos]

You had Macy's CEO calling consumers choiceful, which I had to look up. Choiceful?

[Gunjan Banerjee]

Is that a word?

[Telus Demos]

It is a word and it turns out, and you know, our colleagues over at CNBC had a story about this a couple years ago that it's like a new CEO favorite word.

[Gunjan Banerjee]

Oh, interesting.

[Telus Demos]

So add that to your sort of business speak. Lexicon. Cybercriminals, count on chaos. Count on Veeam to stop them fast. Partner with the global leader in Data Resilience and get 24. 7 ransomware support for your business with Veeam. It's all good. Keep your business [e-mail].