Why U.S. Home Sales Ended 2025 on a High Note

Summary

WSJ What’s News — “Why U.S. Home Sales Ended 2025 on a High Note”

Date: January 14, 2026
Host: Alex Osola (WSJ)
Guests: Nicole Friedman, Veronica Dagger, Imani Moiz (WSJ reporters)

---

Overview

This episode dives into surprising year-end strength in U.S. home sales for 2025, exploring the factors behind this upswing and whether it could last into 2026. The episode also covers new developments in real estate betting markets, bank earnings with implications for consumer spending and credit, and recent political headlines including U.S. immigration and global events.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Strong Bank Earnings & Consumer Behavior

• (00:33–01:18)

  • Big banks (JP Morgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo) reported $28.5 billion in combined Q4 profits; full-year profits up 5% from 2024.
  • Consumer spending and borrowing remain robust; credit card spending rose and delinquencies edged lower.
  • Despite strong numbers, bank and tech stocks fell; Nasdaq down 1%.

• (01:18–03:51): Card Rate Cap Proposal

  • President Trump is proposing a temporary 10% cap on credit card interest rates for one year to address affordability.
  • Imani Moiz explains potential impact (02:21):

    “It would be harder to get credit card rewards unless you are at the very tippy top of the credit spectrum...the more basic rewards...will probably get cut.”
    — Imani Moiz [02:21]

  • Legal and legislative hurdles remain; uncertain whether cap will pass.

2. Meta Shift & Verizon Outage

• (03:51–04:31)
  • Meta laid off ~1,500 from its VR/AR division as it pivots away from the Metaverse towards AI.
  • Nationwide Verizon outage reported; company working on a fix.

3. Betting on Home Prices: Polymarket & Parcel Partnership

• (05:06–08:20): Real Estate Betting Markets

  • Polymarket (betting platform) and Parcel (home price data) let users bet on home price movements—expanding from events like elections to real estate.

  • Utility vs. Speculation

    • Parcel frames it as a data tool to give average buyers insight close to what institutional investors have.
    • Polymarket sees it as a speculative betting market.
    • Likely dominated by speculators, not typical homebuyers.
    • Quote:

      “Polymarket, I think, is more focused on the speculative nature... more likely to be a market dominated by people like speculators rather than, say, a family who’s looking to hedge...”
      — Veronica Dagger [05:47]

  • Edge over Traditional Data

    • Traditional real estate metrics (Case-Shiller, MLS) are backward-looking.
    • Betting markets reflect real-time sentiment, e.g., reactions to rate changes or news.
    • Benefit: “Wisdom of the crowds” can spot trends early.
      — Veronica Dagger [06:43]

  • Risks of Using Market Data

    • Predictions are city-wide, which may not reflect local neighborhood differences.
    • Big bets can “move the market,” making odds potentially misleading.

      “You could have one big trader... move the odds... significantly... not really reflecting what’s happening in that market.”
      — Veronica Dagger [07:40]

  • Limited availability for U.S. users, with gradual rollout.

4. U.S. Home Sales: December Surge and 2026 Outlook

• (08:25–11:22): Nicole Friedman Interview

  • Strong Finish to 2025

    • December 2025: Existing home sales up 5.1%—best gain in nearly 2 years.
    • Fourth consecutive monthly increase.
    • Factors:
      • Mortgage rates dropped to ~6.2% (down from nearly 7% at the year’s start).
      • Higher housing inventory gives buyers more leverage; less competition leads to slower price growth.

        “The number of homes for sale has been rising... buyers have more to choose from... less competition, less of those bidding wars...”
        — Nicole Friedman [09:06]

  • 2026 Outlook

    • Question remains whether momentum continues.
    • If rates stay low or drop further, activity could increase—but could also push prices up and counteract affordability.
    • Market “thawing” as buyers who waited for improvement are stepping in.

      “That improvement in affordability is enough to get some people off the sidelines and back into the market.”
      — Nicole Friedman [10:35]

  • Caution: Despite December’s strength, full-year 2025 sales still at lowest since 1995 (~4 million units).

5. Brief Political and International Headlines

• (11:27–13:04)
  • Trump administration pausing immigrant visa processing for 75 countries (not affecting tourism/work visas).
  • U.S. monitoring Iran protest crackdown; potential military action considered.
  • U.S. evacuating some personnel from Qatar’s Al Udeid air base.
  • Japan’s Prime Minister to call early general election to solidify pro-U.S. stance.

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Imani Moiz on credit card rewards and the cap proposal:

  “They would need to basically eliminate rewards for anyone with a credit score below a 760.” [02:21]

• Veronica Dagger on the betting platform’s user profile:

  “It's really more likely to be a market dominated by people like speculators rather than say, a family who's looking to hedge the price of their home...” [05:47]

• Nicole Friedman on buyer leverage in the current market:

  “We are seeing buyers have more negotiating leverage. They're able to get homes for under the asking price.” [09:06]

• Nicole Friedman on what might drive 2026:

  “Some of that kind of frozen market is thawing. That improvement in affordability is enough to get some people off the sidelines and back into the market.” [10:35]

---

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Bank Earnings & Consumer Trends: 00:33–03:51
• Meta Layoffs & Verizon Outage: 03:51–04:31
• Polymarket/Parcel Betting Market: 05:06–08:20
• Home Sales Momentum & 2026 Outlook: 08:25–11:22
• International Political News: 11:27–13:04

---

Tone & Style

Throughout, the tone remains brisk, analytical, and focused on how economic and policy developments directly impact listeners. Guest experts provide concise, data-backed explanation in true Wall Street Journal style: sober, practical, and forward-looking.

---

Perfect for listeners seeking a sharp, journalistic recap of the late-2025 real estate surge, the rise of betting on housing, and top business headlines, all with expert WSJ insight.

Transcript

[American Express Business Platinum Advertiser]

Experience a membership that backs your business journey with American Express Business Platinum. When you pay with membership rewards points for all or part of an eligible flight booked with a qualifying airline. Through Amex Travel, you can get 35% of those points back up to 1 million points back per calendar year. American Express Business Platinum there's nothing like it. Terms apply. Learn [e-mail] Business Platinum.

[Alex Osola]

A flurry of bank earnings this week shows American consumers are still spending and borrowing. Plus, US home sales finished 2025 on a surprisingly strong note. Can it continue?

[Nicole Friedman]

Definitely. We could see a continuation of this increased activity, but if rates fall and that brings more buyers into the market, maybe that just pushes prices up faster and kind of offsets any of that affordability improvement.

[Alex Osola]

Speaking of housing, polymarket now lets Americans bet on whether home prices will go up or down. It's Wednesday, January 14th. I'm Alex Osola for the Wall Street Journal. This is the PM edition of what's the top headlines and business stories that move the world today. Earnings out this week from some of America's biggest banks show that consumers continue to spend and borrow at a healthy clip at the end of last year despite economic uncertainty, JPMorgan Chase reported yesterday. And today we had bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. Collectively, the four banks posted 28 and a half billion dollars in profit for the fourth quarter, with profits for the full year up nearly 5% from 2024. JP Morgan, bank of America and Citigroup say spending on cards rose in the fourth quarter while delinquencies on credit cards edged lower. And yet stocks of these banks fell today, as did tech stocks weighing on the major U.S. indexes. The Nasdaq led the losses, falling 1%. As part of his attempt to address concerns around affordability, President Trump has called for a 10% cap on credit card interest rates for one year. There's no guarantee this would go into effect, but if it did, one impact it would have would be shaking up the world of credit card rewards. WSJ personal finance reporter Imani Moiz tells us what could be in store for cardholders.

[Imani Moiz]

What it means is that it would be harder to get credit card rewards unless you are at the very tippy top of the credit spectrum. So people with high credit scores, people who make a lot of money and therefore spend a lot of money, you shouldn't expect too big changes because those types of rewards are funded mostly through interchange, which are those swipe fees that merchants pay to accept credit cards and also those sky high annual fees that we've also talked on this show about that can be as much as $900 a year. But what you will see is that the more basic rewards, so think about things like simple cash back or maybe just a more entry level rewards card, those will probably get cut. So there was a recent Vanderbilt study that gamed this out a little bit and they found that in order to basically offset the hit to bank profits from this reduction in rates, they would need to basically eliminate rewards for anyone with a credit score below a 760.

[Alex Osola]

But Imani says it's not clear if Trump's idea will become policy.

[Imani Moiz]

What everyone in the industry is asking for is a fleshed out policy document so that they could run their own analysis to game out exactly what this is going to mean for their business lines and what they need to cut back. Everybody wants more details. Legal experts say that it would require an act of Congress to actually cap credit card rates. People are skeptical that it will pass Congress, but we're creating a lot of precedents recently, so who knows if this goes forward?

[Alex Osola]

Meta has laid off about 1,500 people from its Reality Labs division, which includes the company's virtual and augmented reality business. That's according to a person familiar with the matter. Meta has shifted its focus away from the Metaverse and towards the tech industry's newest obsession, artificial intelligence. And Verizon customers across the country reported problems with their cell phone service today. The company says it's working on a fix for the outage. Coming up, we've got surprisingly strong home sales to close out 2025. The latest on the protests in Iran and the Trump administration hitting pause on immigrant visas. That's after the break.

[Disney/Marvel Advertiser]

Disney wants to know, are you ready? Yes. For Marvel Studios, the new av, streaming on Disney plus.

[Alex Osola]

Let's do this.

[Disney/Marvel Advertiser]

One of the best Marvel movies of all time is now streaming on Disney plus.

[Alex Osola]

Hey, you weren't listening to me.

[Disney/Marvel Advertiser]

I said Thunderbolts, the new Avengers is now streaming on Disney plus.

[Veronica Dagger]

Meet the new Avengers.

[Imani Moiz]

That's cool.

[Disney/Marvel Advertiser]

Then Marvel Studios Thunderbolts, the New Avengers, rated PG 13, now streaming on. You guessed it, Disney Plus.

[Alex Osola]

What's your guess about home prices in your area? Do you think they'll go up or down? Well, now you can put money on that via betting market, Poly Market and Parcel, which tracks daily home prices. The partnership between the two companies is an expansion of the kinds of things you can bet on online, from global elections to the super bowl and how often Elon Musk posts on social media. But it might come with some Risks for people looking to buy or sell an actual house. Veronica Dagger covers personal finance for the Journal and joins me now. Veronica, is this partnership between polymarket and Parcel really positioned as more of a gambling market for kind of whoever wants to participate, or is it a tool for home buyers and sellers?

[Veronica Dagger]

I think it depends who you ask. Parcel sees it as a tool. They are very focused on the data and utility aspects of this. And the CEO Trevor Bacon says that this is a way to essentially narrow the information gap between institutional investors who have a lot of fancy tools and regular buyers. They want to be seen as a way for people to hedge risk and understand what's happening in the market. Polymarket, I think, is more focused on the speculative nature of the platform and many of their users are people who like to bet on things. But at the end of the day, it's really more likely to be a market dominated by people like speculators rather than say, a family who's looking to hedge the price of their home going up or down.

[Alex Osola]

So for people who are looking to these platforms as a way to gauge home prices and home sales, what do they offer that maybe the typical numbers don't?

[Veronica Dagger]

Well, traditional real estate data is backward looking, like Case Shiller or local mls, which is the multiple listing statistics and data to see the recent comparable transactions in your area. Many of the prices that you see today announced they're based on decisions made like 30 or 90 days ago. It really depends. Depends. What these markets share and promote themselves on is that it's real time sentiment. So it's basically based on things like breaking news, like a sudden change in interest rates and not what happened last month. Another difference is the wisdom of the crowds, which sometimes filters out a lot of noise and spots trends before the more mainstream finds it.

[Alex Osola]

So if you are using this Poly Market Parcel data to gauge when to buy a house, when to sell your house, does that come with risks? Oh, 100%.

[Veronica Dagger]

Like any sort of thing you put your money in, there's going to be risks. And one of them is the prices of real estate could vary dramatically depending on even what street you live on within a specific town. Well, these markets are focused on citywide predictions that could be completely removed from what's happening in my specific neighborhood. Also, there's a lot of volatility. So you could have one big trader like they call it sometimes a whale, a whale come in and move the odds of what's happening in that market significantly. And that could really create a signal that's not really reflecting what's happening in that market.

[Alex Osola]

That was WSJ reporter Veronica Dagger. Thanks, Veronica.

[Veronica Dagger]

Thanks for having me.

[Alex Osola]

Veronica says polymarket's availability is limited for US Users, but they're adding more people on a rolling basis. The platform has a data partnership with Dow Jones, the publisher of the Wall Street Journal. Moving from home prices to home sales, they finished last year with surprisingly strong momentum. The national association of Realtors says existing home sales rose 5.1% in December, the fourth straight monthly increase and the biggest gain in nearly two years. Nicole Friedman covers housing for the Journal and joins me now. Nicole, regular listeners of this show know that the housing market's been struggling for a while. You write in your story that lower mortgage rates and home prices that are still climbing but more slow are helping out with that. What's behind those dynamics?

[Nicole Friedman]

So mortgage rates are now around 6.2% for a 30 year fixed rate. And at the start of 2025, they were closer to 7%. So that can make a big difference in a monthly payment for a buyer. And rates have come down really on expectations about the Federal Reserve cutting short term rates. And more recently, President Trump announced that he is instructing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase mortgage bo, which could also somewhat lower mortgage rates. And so we have seen rates dip slightly on that news as well. And then with home price growth, really what we're seeing there is that the number of homes for sale has been rising. And so that gives buyers more to choose from and means there's less competition, less of those bidding wars that we heard so much about a few years ago. And so we are seeing buyers have more negotiating leverage. They're able to get homes for under the asking price. And so even though the supply of homes for sale isn't as high as it was before the pandemic, it's up significantly from the lows of a year or two ago. And that means that home prices are not rising as quickly.

[Alex Osola]

So December may have been a strong month, but last year's overall existing home sales of about 4 million held at the lowest level since 1995. Are analysts expecting this momentum and the dynamics that you talked about to continue and create more of a turnaround this year?

[Nicole Friedman]

So that's the big question heading into 2026, definitely we could see a continuation of this increased activity if rates stay where they are or keep falling and if home price growth stays slow. But if rates fall and that brings more buyers into the market, maybe that just pushes prices up faster and kind of offsets any of that affordability improvement. Some people have been waiting and waiting for the market get better and they're saying we've got to make a move. And so some of that kind of frozen market is thawing. That improvement in affordability is enough to get some people off the sidelines and back into the market.

[Alex Osola]

That was WSJ reporter Nicole Friedman. Thanks, Nicole.

[Nicole Friedman]

Thanks for having me.

[Alex Osola]

In. News from the Trump administration. The State Department will indefinitely pause visa processing for immigrants from 75 countries, including Russia, Thailand and Brazil, starting next week. The freeze affects people who want to permanently immigrate to the US and doesn't apply to tourist or temporary work visas. And it's part of the administration's effort to block low income foreigners. Trump told reporters today at the White House that the US has been notified that Iran had, quote, no plans to carry out any executions of protesters. The Iranian government had signaled that it was preparing to execute anti government protesters as it cracks down on nationwide demonstrations. Trump has been leaning toward ordering military action in Iran to protect the protesters as the death toll climbs because tensions are rising. The US Military has started to evacuate some personnel from the Al Udid air base in Qatar. That's according to a US Official and another person familiar with the matter. And Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi plans to call a general election as soon as next month. After dissolving the country's parliament, she's aiming to solidify her grip on power. A decisive victory would give her a freer hand to pursue a pro US Agenda. Investors expect that her winning would lift Japan's growth as well as inflation and boost government borrowing. That's weighed on the yen. And that's what's news for this Wednesday afternoon. Today's show is produced by prbnma with supervising producer Tali Arbel. Additional support from Hannah Aaron Lang. I'm Alex Osola for the Wall Street Journal. We'll be back with a new show tomorrow morning. Thanks for listening.

[Disney/Marvel Advertiser]

Your Wish is your Command is being called the greatest success book of all time with over 100,000 5 star reviews.

[Veronica Dagger]

I went from 5k on my bank.

[Disney/Marvel Advertiser]

Account to 8 million.

[Veronica Dagger]

My income doubled.

[American Express Business Platinum Advertiser]

I was able to retire at the age of 31.

[Disney/Marvel Advertiser]

It reveals the missing key to the law of attraction. Your Wish is yous Command is now available on Amazon. Search youh Wish Is yous Command on Amazon to get yout Copy Today.