Will AI Help or Hurt Workers?

Summary

WSJ What’s News: Episode Summary – "Will AI Help or Hurt Workers?"

Podcast Information:

• Title: WSJ What’s News
• Host/Author: The Wall Street Journal
• Episode: Will AI Help or Hurt Workers?
• Release Date: December 30, 2024

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1. Honoring the Legacy of Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter

Timestamp: [00:28 – 02:00]

The episode opens with a heartfelt tribute to former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, who passed away at the age of 100 in his hometown of Plains, Georgia. A state funeral is scheduled to honor his legacy on January 9th in Washington, D.C.

Host Luke Vargas highlights President Carter's post-presidency endeavors:

"President Joe Biden paid tribute to Carter yesterday, praising his work after leaving office, which included monitoring global elections, building houses with Habitat for Humanity, and taking on the eradication of diseases."
[01:00]

Economist Justin Leihart adds depth to Carter's global impact:

"What I find extraordinary about Jimmy Carter, though, is that millions of people all around the world, all over the world, feel they lost a friend as well, even though they never met him. And that's because Jimmy Carter lived a life measured not by words, but by his deeds."
[01:43]

For listeners interested in a more comprehensive understanding of Carter's contributions, Vargas directs them to a special edition of What's News published the previous evening.

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2. Investigations into the South Korean Passenger Plane Crash

Timestamp: [02:00 – 06:25]

The podcast transitions to a tragic aviation incident involving a South Korean passenger plane operated by Jeju Air, which crashed while attempting to land, resulting in 179 fatalities. The crash site revealed the plane skidded off the runway, collided with a concrete barrier, and burst into flames.

Key Points:

• Potential Causes: The airport’s control tower had issued warnings about a possible bird strike, a scenario that aviation experts believe could disable both engines and hinder landing gear deployment.
• Investigative Efforts: The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) is spearheading the investigation, collaborating with the FAA and Boeing representatives.

Geopolitical Tensions:

• Azerbaijan’s Accusations: The President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, has leveled serious accusations against Russia, claiming the crash was caused by Russian electronic interference and ground fires. He vehemently denied the Russian authorities' explanations, which attributed the crash to bird strikes and exploding gas cylinders.

"We can say with complete clarity that the plane was shot down by Russia. This is a fact, and no one can deny this fact."
[04:15]

• Impact on Russo-Azerbaijani Relations: Aliyev's accusations underscore Moscow's diminishing influence in its former Soviet republics. The tension highlights the broader geopolitical struggles and Russia’s waning authority in the region.

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3. Donald Trump's Stance on Immigration and TikTok Ban

Timestamp: [06:25 – 11:32]

Immigration Policy and H-1B Visas: Donald Trump has expressed support for H-1B visas for foreign skilled workers, a notable shift from his previous stance labeling them as unfair to U.S. workers. In a recent interview with the New York Post, Trump aligned himself with tech leader Elon Musk in a debate over immigration policies.

Key Insights:

• Collaboration with Tech Industry: The debate intensified following President-elect’s appointment of Sriram Krishnan, a venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz general partner, as his AI advisor. Krishnan advocates for removing caps on green cards for skilled immigrants, mirroring Elon Musk’s position.
• Base Reaction: This support has created friction within Trump’s conservative base, raising questions about his approach to legal immigration in his upcoming term.

TikTok Ban Controversy: Trump has also sought intervention from the Supreme Court to halt a federal law that would ban TikTok in the United States next month. His argument centers around preserving the First Amendment rights of millions of Americans.

Quote from Trump:

"[...] keeping TikTok operating would preserve the First Amendment rights of tens of millions of Americans."
[10:00]

Legal and Corporate Responses:

• Federal Law: Enacted with bipartisan support due to concerns over China’s potential exploitation of TikTok’s user data and influence.
• ByteDance’s Stance: The app’s parent company, ByteDance, has refused to sell its U.S. operations, asserting its inability to comply with the divestiture requirement.

These developments reflect the complex interplay between national security concerns, free speech implications, and international business operations.

---

4. Market Briefing

Timestamp: [11:32 – 13:19]

Stock Market Overview:

• Asian Stocks: Ended the day on a mixed note.
• European Stocks: Predominantly lower during midday trading.
• U.S. Markets: Futures indicated a slight decline following a robust performance in the previous week.

Upcoming Discussion Teaser: The episode hints at a forthcoming discussion on the trade-offs between job productivity and job satisfaction in the context of AI advancements.

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5. The Impact of AI on Workers: Research Insights

Timestamp: [07:00 – 13:19]

Introduction to the Topic: AI’s integration into the workplace has been a subject of intense debate, raising questions about its implications for job productivity and worker satisfaction.

Research Highlight: A recent study by MIT PhD student Aidan Toner Rogers investigates the real-world effects of an AI tool introduced in a large scientific research and development laboratory. Reporter Justin Leihart delves into the findings and their broader implications.

Key Findings:

• Increased Productivity:
  • Scientists using the AI tool discovered significantly more compounds.
  • There was an uptick in patent applications and the development of new products.
  • The AI facilitated the creation of novel compounds, avoiding the "streetlight effect" where only obvious outcomes are achieved.

"They discovered way more compounds. They applied for more patents. It turned into more new products."
[08:28]

• Decline in Job Satisfaction:
  • Contrary to the common narrative that AI alleviates tedious tasks, in this case, it automated creative tasks, leading to reduced job satisfaction.
  • Quote from Aidan Toner Rogers:

    "82% of scientists saw a decline in their kind of job satisfaction due to the tool."
    [09:37]

Expert Commentary:

• Justin Leihart emphasizes the nuanced impact of AI:

  "It is like just having trained up to do this creative work of working on whiteboards and thinking up new compounds and having that go away is disappointing to them."
  [10:05]

• Potential Long-term Effects: The automation of creative tasks may hinder the development of essential skills among scientists, raising concerns about future innovation capabilities.

Expert Opinions:

• Daron Acemoglu (2024 Nobel Prize in Economics): While impressed by the productivity gains, he cautions that AI may not universally boost productivity as anticipated.
• David Otter (Labor Specialist): Contrasts the research findings by suggesting AI could reduce income inequality by enhancing skills among the workforce. However, the study shows that productivity gains were skewed towards already high-performing scientists, potentially widening existing disparities.

Conclusion: The episode highlights that AI's impact on the workforce is complex and context-dependent. While productivity can increase, as seen in the scientific lab, job satisfaction may decline, indicating a potential trade-off that needs careful consideration.

Final Thought from Luke Vargas:

"AI between the Zeppelin and the washing machine, perhaps."
[13:19]

This metaphor suggests that AI's transformative effects are significant but not universally revolutionary, varying across different sectors and applications.

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Closing Remarks: Justin Leihart concludes the segment by advocating for more real-world studies to understand AI’s multifaceted impact on various industries and job roles. Luke Vargas wraps up the episode, thanking contributors and teasing future discussions on AI's role in the workplace.

---

Notable Quotes Recap:

• President Joe Biden on Jimmy Carter:

  "[...] monitoring global elections, building houses with Habitat for Humanity, and taking on the eradication of diseases."
  [01:00]

• Aidan Toner Rogers on Job Satisfaction:

  "82% of scientists saw a decline in their kind of job satisfaction due to the tool."
  [09:37]

• Donald Trump on TikTok and First Amendment:

  "[...] keeping TikTok operating would preserve the First Amendment rights of tens of millions of Americans."
  [10:00]

• Justin Leihart on AI's Impact:

  "They discovered way more compounds. They applied for more patents. It turned into more new products."
  [08:28]

---

Conclusion: This episode of WSJ What’s News provides a comprehensive overview of significant global events, including the passing of Jimmy Carter, geopolitical tensions surrounding a plane crash, shifts in U.S. immigration policy, and a deep dive into the nuanced effects of AI on workers. Through expert interviews and detailed reporting, listeners gain a multifaceted understanding of how AI might reshape the future of work, balancing productivity gains with potential declines in job satisfaction.

Transcript

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[Luke Vargas]

Tributes pour in after the death of former U.S. president Jimmy Carter. Plus, Donald Trump wades into an immigration debate pitting populists against tech leaders and will AI help or hurt workers? New research shows it can boost productivity in the science world at least, but at what cost?

[Justin Leihart]

Having trained up to do this creative work of working on whiteboards and thinking up new compounds and having that go away is disappointing.

[Luke Vargas]

It's Monday, December 30th. I'm Luke Vargas for the Wall Street Journal, and here is the AM edition of what's News, the top headlines and business stories moving your world today. Former US President Jimmy Carter will be honored with a state Funeral in Washington, D.C. on January 9th. Carter died yesterday in his hometown of Plains, Georgia. He was 100 years old and had been in hospice care since 2023. President Joe Biden paid tribute to Carter yesterday, praising his work after leaving office, which included monitoring global elections, building houses with Habitat for Humanity, and taking on the eradication of diseases.

[Justin Leihart]

What I find extraordinary about Jimmy Carter, though, is that millions of people all around the world, all over the world, feel they lost a friend as well, even though they never met him. And that's because Jimmy Carter lived a life measured not by words, but by his deeds.

[Luke Vargas]

And for much more on Carter's political and personal legacy, check out the special edition of what's News that we published yesterday evening. Investigators are continuing to probe the crash of a South Korean passenger plane that killed 179 people this weekend. The plane, operated by South Korea's Jeju Air, skidded off the Runway as it attempted to land at an airport in the country's southwest before colliding with a conch concrete barrier and bursting into flames shortly before landing. The airport's control tower warned of a possible bird strike, and aviation safety experts say a severe bird strike could disable both engines and prevent the deployment of landing gear. The U.S. national Transportation Safety Board is leading a team of American investigators, including representatives from the faa, which certified the aircraft, and from Boeing, the manufacturer of the crashed 737800 Boeing shares down in off hours training the president of Azerbaijan is accusing Russia of trying to cover up its role in last week's deadly crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines jet. Speaking yesterday, President Ilham Aliyev claimed that the crash was caused by Russian electronic interference and fire from the ground, and he demanded that Russia take responsibility for causing the crash, provide compensation and bring those guilty of downing the plane to justice. We can say with complete clarity that the plane was shot down by Russia. This is a fact, and no one can deny this fact. We are not saying that it was done intentionally, but it was done. Aliyev said explanations provided for the crash by Russian authorities, which faulted a flock of birds and an exploding gas cylinder, were foolish and dishonest, and that an apology from Vladimir Putin hadn't been enough. Moscow's spat with Azerbaijan shows its loss of influence closer to home, including in its former Soviet republics, where it had long held the upper hand. Donald Trump has said he supports H1B visas for foreign skilled workers, despite calling them unfair for US Workers in the past. In an interview with the New York Post over the weekend, Trump appeared to be siding with Elon Musk in a rift over immigration policy that started when the president elect named Musk confidant Sriram Krishnan as his AI advisor earlier this month. Krishnan, an Indian immigrant and general partner at venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, has said he supports removing a cap on green cards for skilled immigration, the kind of issue backed by Musk and other tech industry players. However, the topic has become a flashpoint within Trump's conservative base, amplified by uncertainty over how he plans to deal with legal immigration in his second term. Meanwhile, Trump has asked the Supreme Court to stop a federal law banning TikTok from taking effect next month, saying that he wants to negotiate a resolution to prevent a nationwide shutdown of the social media giant. In a court filing, Trump said that keeping TikTok operating would preserve the First Amendment rights of tens of millions of Americans. Though he stopped short of calling the law unconstitutional like TikTok has done, Trump argued it's possible to address national security concerns around the platform without shutting it down. The ban, which Congress passed with bipartisan support earlier this year in response to concerns that China could exploit TikTok's influence and user data, conditions TikTok's survival on a divestiture. The app's owner, ByteDance, has said it can't and won't sell its US business. And in markets today, Asian stocks have ended the day mixed. European stocks are mostly lower in midday trading, while in the US Stock futures are Slimming, slipping after major indexes ended last week. On a downbeat note coming up, would you trade greater job productivity for a decline in job satisfaction? We'll discuss new research suggesting AI could force just such a workplace trade off after the break.

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[Luke Vargas]

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[Aidan Toner Rogers]

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[Justin Leihart]

One of a kind.

[Aidan Toner Rogers]

Ebay had it.

[Justin Leihart]

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[Aidan Toner Rogers]

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[Luke Vargas]

Two holiday seasons ago, many of us were just Getting to know ChatGPT for the first time. Since then, though, the tool has become a global sensation for its developer, OpenAI, displacing some businesses, helping others, and sparking endless debate about whether and how human work could change for better or worse because of AI. Well, out of a sea of swirling speculation on that topic, a recent paper by MIT PhD student Aidan Toner Rogers caught the attention of journal economics reporter Justin Lehart. And Justin is here to talk about it and what it adds to discussions over whether AI really is coming for our jobs. Justin, why did this paper, artificial Intelligence, scientific discovery, and product innovation, catch your attention?

[Justin Leihart]

So economists have been doing a lot of work trying to think about how AI is going to affect the labor market. And what's lacking is studies of it in the real world, field experiments. And what this paper does is it studies an actual field experiment, the introduction of an AI tool to a very large science research and development laboratory. And they were very careful about how they rolled out this AI tool. They didn't just give it to all the scientists at once. They wanted to study it and to understand what it was doing.

[Luke Vargas]

All right, and so, Justin, scientists at this lab, they were trying to create new materials. Where did AI come in? And what did Toner Rogers find?

[Justin Leihart]

The way the AI tool worked was the scientists would identify what type of compound they wanted, and they would put those specifications into the AI tool, which has been trained on lots of other compounds. And the AI tool would spit out recipes that you can conduct experiments on. So the scientists would then do that, and they would come up with these new compounds. So what he found was first, it had a major effect on these scientists productivity. They discovered way more compounds. They applied for more patents. It turned into more new products. And also importantly, the compounds that they were finding were novel. It wasn't what people call a streetlight effect, where it's like, well, you would have thought of that anyhow. This is like, you know, things that were really sort of surprising and interesting.

[Luke Vargas]

And one thing I really appreciated about this paper after reading it and listening to your conversations with Tona Rogers were that, you know, he went beyond those findings and looked at job satisfaction, because that's where this gets personal for a lot of us. Right. And I want to play a clip of what Aiden told you about that.

[Aidan Toner Rogers]

One kind of story around AI more generally is that it's going to kind of automate tedious tasks and humans are going to be able to focus on more rewarding activities. And in this setting, it seems basically the opposite, where the AI is kind of automating these more creative tasks. And instead now the scientists are just kind of sitting there and trying to evaluate these materials that the AI suggests. And there's kind of a uniform decline in scientists satisfaction with kind of the content of their work. The fact that they get more productive partially offsets this, but not fully. And so I had this result that 82% of scientists saw a decline in their kind of job satisfaction due to the tool.

[Luke Vargas]

Justin, that is a key part of the narrative around AI and jobs that really has felt missing from the discourse.

[Justin Leihart]

Yeah. And remember, this is just one tool, so we don't know what it's going to be like in other settings. It seems like programmers are able to get rid of a lot of sort of their scut work. But for these scientists, it is not like that at all. They're more productive and you could imagine that they will get paid more money. So that is an offset. But it's like just having trained up to do this creative work of working on whiteboards and thinking up new compounds and having that go away is disappointing to them. And this is. There's sort of another question in there. Right. So these scientists are put in the role of judging which recipes are best and which one to experiment on first. Right. But how did they get there? How did the scientists get good at judging which recipe is good? Right. Maybe they had to go through some of this creative work to get there. So if the AI is taking the creative work away, eventually the scientists aren't going to get the training that they need.

[Luke Vargas]

I think the same thing has been said about autopilot and flying as well. I mean, and finally, Justin, after this paper came out, you decided to check in with two prominent economists, including 2024 Nobel Prize and economics winner Daron Acemoglu, as well as labor specialist David Otter about what they made of these findings. I'm curious, how do they see this paper updating our assessments about what AI could do to jobs, or more broadly, how it could change our lives?

[Justin Leihart]

So Tona Rogers is their student, and they are incredibly impressed, even though it cuts against some of their views on AI. Acemoglu notably thinks that AI might not increase productivity as much as some people are hoping. And in this paper, at least, you see this huge increase in productivity. It's just one setting, right? But it is impressive. Otter, on the other hand, he thinks that AI might help reduce income inequality, that it could help people who are fairly skilled become much more skilled and reduce some of these gaps. This is not what the paper shows. The paper shows that scientists who were the most productive before the AI came out get even more productive. And the less productive scientists don't really benefit from the tool. So what they want to see is more experiments like this, more sort of real world examinations of what AI is doing in the workplace. Economists have lots of theories. They know about how fast technology has affected the economy, but it can be a real mixed bag there. Zeppelins were supposed to be world changers. They were not. The washing machine was probably not seen as a world changer. It was.

[Luke Vargas]

Therehere we go. AI between the Zeppelin and the washing machine, perhaps. I've been speaking to Wall Street Journal economics reporter Justin Leihart. Justin, thanks so much for bringing us this story.

[Justin Leihart]

Thanks for having me.

[Luke Vargas]

And that's it for what's news for this Monday morning. Today's show was produced by Daniel Bach with supervising producer Christina Rocca. And I'm Luke Vargas for the Wall Street Journal. We will be back tonight with a new show. Until then, thanks for listening.