Will SpaceX Skyrocket on Trading Debut?

Summary

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WSJ What’s News – "Will SpaceX Skyrocket on Trading Debut?"

Date: June 12, 2026
Host: Luke Vargas (The Wall Street Journal)
Main Theme:
The episode centers on SpaceX’s massive IPO debut, exploring its potential market impact, the mechanics behind volatile public offerings, and broader economic and geopolitical headlines—from oil’s reaction to Middle East diplomacy, to a UK defense shakeup, and high-stakes concert spending in London.

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1. SpaceX’s Record-Breaking IPO: Hype, Volatility, & Broad Market Ripples

Timestamps: [00:33]–[03:26]

Key Points:

• SpaceX to Begin Trading: The company is set for the biggest IPO ever, with a valuation just below $1.8 trillion.
• Anticipated Volatility:
  Caitlin McCabe explains that newly listed stocks often see wild price swings. If SpaceX’s price moves more than 10% in either direction, trading will pause automatically for five minutes to curb volatility.
• Risk of Trading Pauses:
  McCabe references recent precedents—“Companies including the software company Figma, which debuted last year, and Cerberus Systems, which went public earlier this year. They both had their shares halted, so a very volatile launch could definitely see a repeat of that.” ([01:54] Caitlin McCabe)
• Stabilization Mechanisms:
  “There is this thing that's known as the green shoe option. It essentially gives the so-called stabilization agent, which in this case is Morgan Stanley, a secret weapon to calm things down. So if the stock starts to fall severely, the bank will buy the shares in the open market which will help buoy the stock price.” ([02:13] Caitlin McCabe)
• Market & Retail Impact:
  Retail investors have been selling positions in hot stocks like Micron and Apple to free up cash (“dry powder”) to buy SpaceX shares—potentially stoking more volatility in the broader market.
• Exclusion from Indexes:
  SpaceX won’t be included in major index funds for several days, so big automated buy-ins are delayed, possibly increasing early volatility.

Notable Quote:

“If the IPO is going really well, it's possible that retail investors and frankly other types of investors in the market will want to sell those shares and that could stoke more volatility throughout the market.” — Caitlin McCabe, [03:09]

Memorable Moment:

• Host Luke Vargas teases a deep-dive on whether today’s IPO makes Elon Musk a trillionaire. ([03:26])

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2. Global Business Headlines: Oil, Peru, and North American Trade

Timestamps: [03:26]–[07:06]

Oil Market Update:

• Prices Drop Below $90/barrel: After President Trump calls off strikes on Iran, markets react, but a sustained drop may be far away.
• Key Analyst Insight:
  “Brent crude was trading in the low 70s before this war started, and we've seen it reach to nearly 120 at some point in the conflict... The ultimate impact on oil prices depend on how quickly flows can be restored through the Strait of Hormuz, which could take months.” ([03:59] Julia Petroni)
  Obstacles: sea mines, tanker repositioning, infrastructure repair, and shut-in wells.

Notable Quote:

“Most analysts I've spoken to say Brent is unlikely to drop below 80 a barrel until round trips through Hormuz can resume.” — Julia Petroni, [04:44]

Peru’s Presidential Election:

• Kiko Fujimori Narrowly Wins: Daughter of a former dictator, now president, signaling a rightward shift in Latin American politics. Fujimori promises tough stances—building prisons, expelling illegal migrants, and concealing judge identities to counter violent crime.

US–Canada Bridge Tensions:

• Windsor-Detroit Bridge Delayed: Canada delays opening at US request amid “outstanding issues.” Although downplayed by PM Mark Carney, the move follows Trump’s demand for an ownership stake.
  “The bridge opening was put in doubt after Trump in February said he would hold up its launch, demanding an ownership stake in the project.” ([05:40])

Trump Impeachment Push:

• President Trump seeking to void his first-term impeachments via a congressional resolution, furthering his efforts to recast his legacy.

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3. European Defense: UK Crisis and the Continent’s Struggles

Timestamps: [07:40]–[12:45]

UK Defense Secretary Resigns:

• Reason: John Healy steps down over insufficient military funding amid “rising threats.”
  • In his resignation: “...the treasury has been unwilling to commit the resources that the nation needs to defend the country at this time of rising threats.” ([07:51])

Europe’s Military Readiness:

• Key Insights from Alistair MacDonald:
  • The UK’s plan is to reach 2.68% of GDP in defense by 2030, short of its NATO 3.5% target.
  • Europe's pursuit of “defence sovereignty” requires Britain and France to step up, but it’s largely Germany and smaller economies actually increasing spending.
  • “Europe's defence spending increased by 16%” last year, but overall defense efforts are fragmented due to lack of unified budget and diverse equipment.
• Fragmentation Problems:
  • “It's not really the sum of its parts. It's not one whole wallet as the US's is—it's fragmented.” ([09:35] Alistair MacDonald)
  • Projects to unify—like the FCAS stealth fighter (Germany, France, Spain)—have collapsed due to disagreements.
  • Most European nations still build their own ships and submarines, spreading resources thin.

UK Status:

• The UK remains above NATO's 2% threshold and is a “very valuable ally for somebody like the US. It has excellent special forces. Its troops are considered very well trained. It still has some very gear. It's of course, a nuclear power.” ([11:53] Alistair MacDonald)
• But operational capacity is sometimes lacking; e.g., “...it only really had one frigate it could send out there. And this is a country that once boasted of ruling the waves.” ([12:32] Alistair MacDonald)

Notable Quotes:

• “Healy's argument is very much that these are very uncertain times. And he would point to what's been happening in Ukraine and broader security threats as you've seen in the Middle East, where Europe's been a complete bystander.” — Alistair MacDonald, [08:45]
• “You have a situation where most large European nations build their own naval gear in terms of ships and for those that have submarines, submarines. So you have huge fragmentation.” — Alistair MacDonald, [11:06]

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4. Harry Styles Fans vs. The Swifties: Record-Breaking Concert Spending

Timestamps: [12:50]–[14:45]

Concert Economy:

• Harry Styles Wembley Residency: 12 shows at UK's largest stadium—massive economic activity as fans pour in from around the world.
• Fan Perspective:
  • Brisa, Californian grad student: “For my tickets I spent £725. I wanted to have the best tickets as possible, so I've just been saving up for that.” ([13:33])
  • Brisa’s total trip expenses exceed $8,000.
• Bigger Than Swifties:
  • According to Barclays, “self titled Styles fans known as Harrys are expected to spend more than fans who attended recent Taylor Swift and Oasis tours, which is honestly the first time that being a Swifty has ever cheap.” ([14:15] Luke Vargas)

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• “There is this thing that's known as the green shoe option... a secret weapon to calm things down.” — Caitlin McCabe, [02:13]
• “Europe's looking for this defence sovereignty. The idea is that for Europe to get defence sovereignty it really needs its traditional military powers, which is really Britain and France, to step up to the plate.” — Alistair MacDonald, [08:54]
• “It's not really the sum of its parts... So that's sort of why you do need the traditional European big military spenders, which is, as I say, mainly France and the United Kingdom.” — Alistair MacDonald, [09:36]
• “Most analysts I've spoken to say Brent is unlikely to drop below 80 a barrel until round trips through Hormuz can resume.” — Julia Petroni, [04:44]
• Fan Brisa on her pilgrimage to Wembley: “If I'm gonna be making an expense that big, might as well just go big or go home.” ([13:15])

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Summary Table of Key Segments & Timestamps

| Segment | Start | End | Notes | |---------------------------------------------------|----------|----------|----------------------------------------------------------------| | SpaceX IPO Coverage | 00:33 | 03:26 | Mechanics, volatility, green shoe, market impact | | Oil Market/Oil Price Volatility | 03:59 | 05:02 | Iran deal, Hormuz, analyst insights | | Peru Election, Canada Bridge, Trump Impeachment | 05:02 | 07:06 | Global headlines | | UK/European Defense Resignation & Analysis | 07:40 | 12:45 | Europe's spending, collaboration failures, UK’s role | | Harry Styles Wembley Residency (concert economy) | 12:50 | 14:45 | Fan interviews, spending data, Barclays research |

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Episode Takeaways

• SpaceX’s IPO isn’t just the biggest of the year, it could cause waves far beyond Musk’s portfolio—potentially spurring market-wide volatility as retail and institutional investors reshuffle.
• Oil markets are holding their breath despite diplomatic overtures, with structural challenges (like the Strait of Hormuz) keeping prices elevated.
• Europe, facing rising threats, still struggles to build a unified defense capability—hampered by fragmented budgets and failed collaborations, as dramatized by the UK defense secretary’s resignation.
• The UK is witnessing an economic spectacle as Harry Styles fans eclipse even Taylor Swift’s in total spending—the power of devoted fandoms in the entertainment economy.

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Transcript

[Alistair MacDonald]

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[Luke Vargas]

we're counting down to the biggest IPO of the year. With SpaceX due to begin trading later today, plus the UK's defense secretary quits, we'll look at what it says about Europe's military readiness.

[Alistair MacDonald]

Europe to get defence sovereignty, it really needs its traditional military powers, which is really Britain and France, to step up the plate. At the moment it's only really Germany

[Luke Vargas]

and Barclays forecasts that Harry's will outspend Swifties. Confused? I promise you won't be in just a few minutes. It's Friday, June 12th. I'm Luke Vargas for the Wall Street Journal and here is the AM edition of what's news, the top headlines and business stories moving your world today. We are just Hours away from SpaceX's trading debut, the largest IPO ever. Its size and value is set just shy of $1.8 trillion. And big firms and retail investors alike have their orders all lined up. But what'll happen when shares finally hit later today? After all, Tesla saw its stock jump 40% in its debut. And even much smaller moves from SpaceX could trigger a pause in trading. As our Caitlin McCabe explains.

[Caitlin McCabe]

I think everyone right now is really interested obviously in how the stock will perform today, but also just the mechanics and the plumbing around it. For most newly listed companies, a 10% swing in either direction prompts a five minute pause in the stock. This has been used recently. Companies including the software company Figma, which debuted last year, and Cerberus Systems, which went public earlier this year. They both had their shares halted, so a very volatile launch could definitely see a repeat of that. But there are some options to help stabilize the stock if things start trading really erratically. There is this thing that's known as the green shoe option. It essentially gives the so called stabilization agent, which in this case is Morgan Stanley, a secret weapon to calm things down down. So if the stock starts to fall severely, the bank will buy the shares in the open market which will help buoy the stock price. And finally, we'll be watching to see how this listing affects the broader market. SpaceX won't be included in any major index funds for several days, but there was some interesting data out from Vander Research the other day. It showed that retail investors have been selling shares of some of the really buzziest, most popular stocks in the market in the last few days. You know, companies like MAR Technology, Micron Technology, even Apple, the thinking is that they're trying to amass dry powder in order to buy shares of SpaceX. So if the IPO is going really well, it's possible that retail investors and frankly other types of investors in the market will want to sell those shares and that could stoke more volatility throughout

[Luke Vargas]

the market and for much more on what to expect on SpaceX's first trading day from whether the stock is worth the hype or just how quickly today's IPO will make Elon Musk a trillionaire. Check out the links we've left in our show. Notes Oil prices have fallen below $90 a barrel today after President Trump called off planned strikes on Iran and said that a peace deal could be reached within days. Crude is on track to end the week 8% lower, but as Dow Jones Energy reporter Julia Petroni explains, any significant drop in oil prices could still be a long way off.

[Julia Petroni]

Oil prices have been on a bit of a wild ride in recent months. Brent crude was trading in the low 70s before this war started, and we've seen it reach to nearly 120 at some point in the conflict. The ultimate impact on oil prices depend on how quickly flows can be restored through the Strait of Hormuz, which could take months. We're facing a number of challenges, from the clearing of sea mines to the repositioning of the global tanker fleet, damage to infrastructure and production facilities in the Gulf, and also shut in oil wells, which do not simply resume production at the turn of evolve. So forecasts are highly uncertain and volatile. Most analysts I've spoken to say Brent is unlikely to drop below 80 a barrel until round trips through Hormuz can resume. But markets will likely to continue to price in some geopolitical risk premium, at least until a final deal is reached between the US And Iran, and especially because Iran has shown it has substantial leverage over the Strait of War moves.

[Luke Vargas]

We turn out to Peru, where Kiko Fujimori, the daughter of a former dictator in the country, has narrowly won the presidency, marking the latest shift toward right wing leadership in Latin America. Aligned with the Trump administration's regional approach. Fujimori has pledged a severe crackdown on the country's rising violent crime. Her promises include building maximum security prisons, expelling illegal migrants, and allowing judges to wear hoods to conceal their identities. Canada has delayed the opening of a new bridge which would connect Detroit with Windsor, Ontario, and translate into billions of dollars in economic savings for truckers. The move was down played by Prime Minister Mark Carney, who said it was unrelated to ongoing trade tensions between the two countries. Well, at the, at the request of the United States, we agreed to delay the opening and take the necessary time to resolve outstanding issues. A few issues that have been raised and this is a collaborative approach. As I said yesterday, there's, there's not great drama here. We're going to work through some issues that have come up. The bridge opening was put in doubt after Trump in February said he would hold up its launch, demanding an ownership stake in the project. Earlier this week, a White House official said the president's position hadn't changed and that he was seeking the best possible deal for Americans. And we're exclusively reporting that President Trump and his allies are discussing a push for lawmakers to pass a resolution voiding his first term impeachments. Trump told the Journal that the move is justified because he, quote, did nothing wrong. The resolution would allow Trump to claim a symbolic victory on a matter that's followed him since his first term and is part of an effort to burnish his presidential legacy. Coming up, the UK's Keir Starmer grapples with the surprise resignation of his defense secretary. The latest headache for European leaders balancing tough trade offs as they try to ramp up defense spending. We've got that story and more after the break.

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[Luke Vargas]

The UK Defense secretary quit his job yesterday. We don't normally cover personnel shakeups in Whitehall here, but read John Healy's resignation letter and it's clear that it speaks to a larger trend that's playing out across Europe. In it, addressing Prime Minister Keir Starmer, he wrote that quote, he you have been unable and the treasury has been unwilling to commit the resources that the nation needs to defend the country at this time of rising threats. The Journal's Alistair MacDonald covers the defense industry for us. Alistair this surprise resignation came on the same day that some officials have been expecting the UK to unveil its so called defense Investment plan. This is a sort of decade long blueprint for making the UK armed forces battle ready. Evidently Healey didn't think it was went far enough or actually accomplished that.

[Alistair MacDonald]

That's right, Luke. It was presented to him earlier this week and in it it promised only to increase military spending to 2.68% GDP by 2030. Of course the UK has agreed with NATO that it will increase its defense spending to 3.5%. Healey's argument is very much that these are very uncertain times. And he would point to what's been happening in Ukraine and broader security threats as you've seen in the Middle east, where Europe's been a complete bystander. And so Europe's looking for this defence sovereignty. The idea is that for Europe to get defence sovereignty it really needs its traditional military powers, which is really Britain and France, to step up to the plate. At the moment it's only really Germany, which is obviously a very large economy. The Nordics and Scandinavians and Poland, but the Nordics and the Baltics really increasing by a lot. But they're obviously much smaller economies.

[Luke Vargas]

Well, how much does this conundrum being faced in Britain mirror the situation across Europe? I mean, I note in Your reporting the UK military is facing this 28 billion pound hole in its military equipment budget. I'm curious if that is kind of the same.

[Alistair MacDonald]

Yeah, well Europe is raising its defence spending quite considerably. Last year alone Europe's defence spending increased by 16%. These are coming from figures from SIPRI, which is a think tank that outpaced the 3% increase in spending globally and an 8% real term decline in the US. The problem for Europe, of course, is that it's not really the sum of its parts. It's not one whole wallet as the US's is, it's fragmented. So that's sort of why you do need the traditional European big military spenders, which is, as I say, mainly France and the United Kingdom.

[Luke Vargas]

Got it. And that fragmentation you're talking about there leads to all sorts of interoperability issues, does it not?

[Alistair MacDonald]

It does. And that's something Europe's trying to address by buying the same equipment. So to some degree it succeeded. I mean most European nations really, with the exception of the UK and France, use for instance Germany's Leopard tank. A lot of European nations are coalescing around Rheinmetall propelled howitzers for instance. So there is some coming together.

[Luke Vargas]

And there's some notable kind of instances though where these attempts to cooperate kind of fall flat on their face as we Saw this week Germany pulling out of a stealth fighter project that had been in the works for years and sort of had been meant to symbolize how European countries could work together to rebuild, build their militaries.

[Alistair MacDonald]

That's right, the FCAs. So that was Germany, France and Spain, and that collapsed in acrimony this week, as you've said, although it came as no surprise to absolutely anyone. You've had drone projects that have fallen apart. There was a sort of a European grand tank plan that's taken a long, long time, might happen eventually. And then, you know, you have a situation where most large European nations build their own naval gear in terms of ships and for those that have submarines, submarines. So you have huge fragmentation. Of course, the British, the Ital and the Japanese have their own stealth fighter which is supposed to come online in 2035. That's called the GCAP. But then if you have the French one, the FCAS, nobody knows where Spain's going to go. And then the Germans are talking about doing their own one. And then you still have Sweden with its gripen, then you've got a lot of different planes, basically, and that's sort of sucking up spending.

[Luke Vargas]

Just going back to the uk, very briefly, you seem to be painting a bit more of an optimistic note about kind of how the continent is rising to the moment. But then what's the deal with the UK?

[Alistair MacDonald]

In fairness, the UK has been above the required NATO spending of 2% of GDP. It's kept above that. I mean, your listeners will know the UK was once, you know, a global military superpower. That's no longer so, of course, but it's still considered a very, very valuable ally for somebody like the us. It has excellent special forces. Its troops are considered very well trained. It still has some very gear. It's of course, a nuclear power. It can project force because it has aircraft carriers and it has nuclear submarines. But the trouble is, is that that's

[Luke Vargas]

especially Alistair, if some of that really expensive kit doesn't operate or can't be out in the field. I mean, which we saw at the beginning of the Iran war.

[Alistair MacDonald]

Yeah, that was right. It only really had one frigate it could send out there. And this is a company that once boasted of ruling the waves. So it's sort of come a long way since then.

[Luke Vargas]

The Journal's Alastair MacDonald covers the defense industry for us. Alastair, thank you so much for stopping by.

[Alistair MacDonald]

Thank you, Luke.

[Luke Vargas]

And finally, as soccer stadiums across North America welcome millions of fans from around the world for the World cup across The Pond, the UK's largest venue is readying itself for Harry Styles, who's kicking off a 12 show residency at Wembley Stadium tonight. Before heading to New York's Madison Square Garden for a whopping 30 gigs,

[Brisa]

I decided to try and get tickets to his London show. When I saw that he wasn't coming to California, I knew London would be such a cool experience and if I'm gonna be making an expense that big, might as well just go big or go home.

[Luke Vargas]

That's BRISA, a 25 year old public relations graduate student from University of California, One of around a million fans flocking to the UK Capitol.

[Brisa]

For my tickets I spent £725. I wanted to have the best tickets as possible, so I've just been saving up for that.

[Luke Vargas]

Fan spending for the former One Direction Stars concerts in London is set to amount to more than a billion pounds. And for fans like Brisa coming from overseas, spending on the shows will run much higher than the average £981 spent by the average attendee.

[Brisa]

Beyond just the ticket itself, all my flights, hotels, other accommodations and experiences, I've spent over $3,900 and I'm anticipating to spend over 4,000 out there. So kind of almost towards $8,000 that I've been saving up for for quite a minute. And yeah, I'm just super excited.

[Luke Vargas]

According to Barclays Consumer Spend data, self titled Styles fans known as Harrys are expected to spend more than fans who attended recent Taylor Swift and Oasis tours, which is honestly the first time that being a Swifty has ever cheap and that's it for what's news for this Friday morning. Today's show was produced by Hattie Moyer. Our supervising producer is Sandra Kilhoff and I'm Luke Vargas for the Wall Street Journal. We will be back tonight with a new show. Otherwise have a great weekend and thanks for listening.

[Caitlin McCabe]

This episode is brought to you by MassMutual. When people count on financial guidance, they want a company known for strength, stability and trust with the solutions to fit their needs. Financial professionals can help people move forward with confidence, backed by MassMutual's 175 year legacy. Learn more at MassMutual.com MassMutual.com.