Will the U.S. or Iran Decide When the War Ends?

Summary

WSJ What’s News Podcast Summary

Episode: Will the U.S. or Iran Decide When the War Ends?
Date: March 10, 2026
Host: Luke Vargas (for The Wall Street Journal)

---

Overview

This episode examines the escalating Iran war’s uncertain endgame, focusing on whether the U.S. or Iran will decide the outcome. It explores the conflict’s impacts on energy markets—particularly oil and natural gas—assessing how American consumers are insulated from global shocks. Major global business developments, including Chinese export surges and Nasdaq’s tokenized stock initiative, are also discussed.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Who Will Decide When the Iran War Ends?

• Presidential Promises vs. Reality

  • President Trump asserts the war with Iran will be over "very soon," despite concerns within his administration about prolonged conflict, rising energy prices, and potential political fallout before midterm elections.
  • Quote [00:33]: "President Trump says he is looking for a quick end to the war in Iran, saying it will be over very soon after some of his advisors privately urged him to look for an exit plan amid rising energy prices and concerns that an extended conflict could spark political backlash." — Luke Vargas

• Internal White House Tensions

  • Reports suggest polling and nervous Republicans are influencing decision-making. White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt denies these claims, insisting the administration is committed to a “tremendous success.”

• Differing Administration Narratives

  • At a Florida press conference, Trump deemed the war “very complete,” yet his defense secretary said it was “just the beginning.”
  • Quote [02:06]: “Well, I think you could say it’s both the beginning... It’s the beginning of building a new country. We could call it a tremendous success right now as we leave here, I could call it. Or we could go further. And we’re going to go further.” — President Trump

• Iran's Stance and Leverage

  • Jared Malson, WSJ Middle East correspondent, explains that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claim they—not the U.S.—will determine when the war ends, especially regarding control of the Strait of Hormuz.

  • Quote [02:30]: “The Iranians have said essentially that they will decide when the war is over... they would be the ones to decide when, for example, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz which at the moment is at the center of the crisis.” — Jared Malson

  • The war has transformed the region and granted Iran leverage, particularly by closing a chokepoint that moves one-fifth of the world’s oil.

  • Even if the U.S. halts bombing, unresolved issues like the closed Strait and Iran’s continued regime survival remain.

2. Global Energy Market Impacts

• Oil and Natural Gas Price Divergence

  • Oil prices are volatile but stable around $90/barrel. Natural gas, however, displays a global price gap: U.S. prices are comparatively steady, while European and Asian prices have surged.

• American Insulation from Price Shocks

  • Key Factors:
    • Record U.S. production and ample supply.
    • U.S. LNG export capacity is "maxed out," preventing meaningful additional exports that could push domestic prices higher.
  • Quote [04:44]: “International natural gas prices surge, while in the US they rose, but by a relatively small amount... America’s domestic supply is sort of cushioning the blow from this.” — Ryan de Zember

• LNG Export Dynamics

  • Foreign buyers (especially in Europe and Asia) compete for available cargoes, but limited export infrastructure shields U.S. consumers from global spikes.

• Domestic Economic Effects

  • U.S. manufacturers reliant on natural gas benefit compared to foreign competitors facing higher costs.
  • Example: International Paper suffered a $40 million hit from a recent domestic price spike but could fare better if U.S. markets avoid further disruptions.

• Consumer Outlook

  • Robust inventories and capped export capacity mean Americans likely won’t see big spikes in natural gas bills, unlike Europe/Asia.
  • Quote [07:56]: “All things being equal, the American consumer should be pretty well insulated from the shock, unlike folks in Europe and Asia.” — Ryan de Zember

3. Additional Major Headlines

• China’s Export Surge

  • China’s exports rose over 20% in the year’s first two months, especially to Southeast Asia and Europe (+25%). Exports to the U.S. fell 11%.

• EV Market Update

  • Shares of CATL, the world’s top EV battery maker, surged after posting 42% annual profit growth despite higher lithium prices and cooling demand in China.

• Nasdaq’s Tokenized Trading Initiative

  • Nasdaq plans to partner with crypto exchange Kraken to launch tokenized stocks—digital versions of U.S. equities tradable 24/7—by early next year. This effort aims to blend crypto innovation with existing market infrastructure.
  • Quote [10:36]: “Nasdaq is a very established exchange... and they are proposing to do tokenized equities in a way where it would work more seamlessly with existing systems.” — Alexander Osipovich
  • Problem identified: Current tokenized equities don’t grant shareholder voting rights, unlike Nasdaq’s plan.

• Social Media Regulation Easing

  • Canada reverses a TikTok ban, setting new conditions; the UK rejects an Australian-style under-16 social media ban in favor of targeted access restrictions.

• U.S. Airport Delays Amid Shutdown

  • Ongoing partial government shutdown causes long TSA lines, prompting airlines to advise arriving four hours early. TSA officers are missing paychecks as the spring break travel rush begins.

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• President Trump on War’s Status:

  • [02:06] “Well, I think you could say it’s both the beginning... It’s the beginning of building a new country. We could call it a tremendous success right now as we leave here, I could call it. Or we could go further. And we’re going to go further.”

• Jared Malson on Iranian Leverage:

  • [02:30] “The Iranians have said essentially that they will decide when the war is over, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps saying yesterday that they would be the ones to decide when, for example, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz...”

• Ryan de Zember on U.S. Price Insulation:

  • [04:44] “International natural gas prices surge, while in the US they rose, but by a relatively small amount… America’s domestic supply is sort of cushioning the blow from this.”

• Alexander Osipovich on Nasdaq:

  • [10:36] “Nasdaq is a very established exchange... proposing to do tokenized equities in a way where it would work more seamlessly with existing systems.”

---

Important Segment Timestamps

| Segment | Topic | Timestamp | |-------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------|-----------| | Iran war endgame | Trump, White House, Iran's position | 00:33–04:07| | Oil and gas market impacts | U.S. vs. global price trends, domestic insulation | 04:07–08:26| | China/EVs/tokenized trading | Export data, CATL profits, Nasdaq tokenized stocks | 09:34–11:17| | Social/media & travel delays | Regulatory moves, airport chaos amidst shutdown | 11:17–12:10|

---

Tone and Style

The tone remains analytical and measured, with brief moments of journalistic urgency especially around energy and geopolitical topics. Speaker language is direct and information-rich, with occasional explanatory back-and-forths designed for clarity and accessibility.

---

Summary for Non-Listeners

This episode gives a concise yet nuanced breakdown of the power struggle over the Iran war’s conclusion, showing how both U.S. and Iranian leaders are seeking to control the narrative and strategic outcome. It provides an accessible but thorough analysis of the ripple effects on global energy markets, especially natural gas, and explains why American consumers are faring better than those abroad. The rest of the episode brings key updates on Chinese trade, electric vehicle sectors, trends in digital asset trading, and significant changes to social media regulation and air travel conditions—all relevant for investors, businesses, and the informed public.

Transcript

[Timberland Narrator]

It's not just something you made. It's the privilege that you get to work with your hands. It's building something that serves a purpose, proof that you have the grit to keep going. At Timberland, we understand you take your craft seriously, and we do, too, which is why our products are built to the highest quality. We put in the work so you can perfect yours with purpose, in every detail and crafted with intention. Timberland built on craft. Visit timberland.com to shop.

[Luke Vargas]

President Trump promises a quick end to the Iran war as Iran pledges to fight on. Plus why Americans aren't likely to see pricier natural gas even if the rest of the world is.

[Ryan de Zember]

All things being equal, the American consumer should be pretty well insulated from the shock, unlike folks in Europe and Asia.

[Luke Vargas]

And the rest of the day's news as Chinese exports blow past analyst forecasts and the Nasdaq embraces tokenized trading. It's Tuesday, March 10th. I'm Luke Vargas for the Wall Street Journal, and here is the AM edition of what's news, the top headlines and business stories moving YOUR world Today, President Trump says he is looking for a quick end to the war in Iran, saying it will be over very soon after some of his advisors privately urged him to look for an exit plan amid rising energy prices and concerns that an extended conflict could spark political backlash. We report that Trump has been briefed on some polling about the war and that some in his inner circle have fielded calls about the midterm elections from nervous Republicans. White House press Secretary Caroline Levitt denied that report, saying it was full of crap, that Trump's aides were focused on ensuring that the war is a tremendous success and that Trump will be the one to decide when it's over. Here he was at a press conference yesterday evening in Florida.

[Alex Osala]

Mr. President, you said the war is, quote, very complete, but your defense secretary says this is just the beginning. So which is it and how long should Americans be?

[Timberland Narrator]

Well, I think you could say it both the beginning. It's the beginning of building a new country. We could call it a tremendous success right now as we leave here, I could call it. Or we could go further. And we're going to go further.

[Luke Vargas]

Journal Middle east correspondent Jared Malson told me that whether the war ends very soon or is just beginning is partly in Iran's hands.

[Jared Malson]

Well, the Iranians have said essentially that they will decide when the war is over, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps saying yesterday that they would be the ones to decide when, for example, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz which at the moment is at the center of the crisis around Iran and very likely has something to do with why Trump said what he said yesterday. One fifth of the world's oil passes through the Strait and right now it's all but closed due to Iranian attacks and threats. Even if the the administration decides to stop bombing, they would face the challenge, number one of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing pressure on oil markets and more generally of easing the security threat from Iran across the region. And they're going to be reckoning with a region that's really been transformed by this. If they decide to stop bombing in the coming days, for example, the Iranian regime would still be in place. It would have survived the military offensive. And from the Iranians perspective, they have a lot of incentive to continue to use the leverage they have over energy markets to try to ensure their own survival. Because Trump began this war by saying that he wanted to change the Iranian regime, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been consistent in saying that that's what he wants. That's something that he reiterated this morning. And so that's how the Iranian regime is going to view the conflict, as a for their survival.

[Luke Vargas]

Well, another potential factor in the war's trajectory is the state of global energy markets. We spoke yesterday about the big run up and pullback in oil prices, which remain around $90 a barrel this morning. But for much of the world, natural gas prices are being just as closely watched. And it's clear why. Because while US Prices are actually down on the year, they remain considerably higher in Europe, even after double digit declines. Today, as I discussed with reporter Ryan dezember, there's a reason gas is responding differently to global volatility than oil and why Americans are likely to be spared some of the pain of higher prices seen elsewhere.

[Ryan de Zember]

Well, after the US And Israel started bombing Iran, the Strait of Hormuz became sort of a no go zone for ships carrying oil, as we know, but also liquefied natural gas from the Persian Gulf. That's about 20% of the world's supply. So what we saw was international natural gas prices surge, while in the US they rose, but by a relatively small amount. Last week, benchmark futures in the US rose 11% and that compares with more than 50% over in Europe. So we see this big gap where America's domestic supply is sort of cushioning the blow from this.

[Luke Vargas]

Yeah, explain that more. What's responsible for sort of insulating America here.

[Ryan de Zember]

So in the US we have a few things going for US we have record production lately, despite the big storms that caused some record sort of weekly drawdowns in supply. Back in, in January, we're ending the winter about on target with like the five year average so amply supplied going into spring when those stockpiles grow ahead of summer. And then of course we have a big booming LNG export business in the US but it's pretty much maxed out right now. There's not really capacity to send much more volume overseas than exporters already are. And so you're not going to see a huge surge in prices probably because you can't really extract more from the domestic market to send overseas until the next LNG terminal is open.

[Luke Vargas]

So a foreign buyer that is desperate for supply can't bid this away from American consumers quite so easily as maybe we see in crude. Is that the way to think of it?

[Ryan de Zember]

Yeah, and really what's happening is they're bidding against each other. So the boats that do go out, we're seeing some movement where they may be destined for say, Europe and someone in Asia buys them instead. More than 90% of the LNG that comes out of the Persian Gulf goes to Asia. So you're going to see prices bid for any available cargoes to go that way as opposed to other places in the world.

[Luke Vargas]

Right now this all sounds like good news for American consumers, particularly their home heating bills. What are the other sort of end user effects of this?

[Ryan de Zember]

Yeah, and what you'll see is, you know, manufacturers use a lot of natural gas. We saw big disruptions during the major freeze off in late January in the US to the point the factories and stuff were getting curtailed, not getting any gas, having to go to the spot market and pay 10, 20 times the normal price for their natural gas. You're going to see that reflected in stock prices and a benefit to them relative to overseas competitors. An example we had a few weeks ago was International Paper, the big cardboard box maker. They estimate something more than $40 million hit to their bottom line from the big price spike. So if US businesses in the US natural gas market can avoid that, that's going to trickle down not only to our power and natural gas bills at home, but also to the companies that make basic products from steel and cardboard boxes, of course, all the way to things like toothpaste and drywall.

[Luke Vargas]

The million dollar question, Ryan, is can the U.S. energy industry and U.S. manufacturers win here and the U.S. consumer win at the same time? Because in some ways the consumer is the one more at risk now of the oil shock.

[Ryan de Zember]

Yeah, I mean, it'll be a benefit, right? Summer's closer than we than we think and will be a crank in our air conditioners. So, you know, in that sense, Americans are going to want to see that natural gas inventory stay robust, see a lot of gas going into it. You know, we have seen the price go up at a time of year when you'd expect to see the price going down because our heaters aren't running, you know, all day long. But all things being equal, the American consumer should be pretty well insulated from the shock, unlike folks in Europe and Asia.

[Luke Vargas]

I've been speaking to Wall Street Journal reporter Ryan de Zember. Ryan, thank you as always for the update.

[Ryan de Zember]

Thank you.

[Luke Vargas]

And we want to know how volatile energy and commodity prices are affecting you and your business. What do they mean for your plans today, next week or later in the year? Is your bottom line being impacted? And what about your pricing strategy? Let us know by sending a voice note to wnpodsj.com or leave us a voicemail at 212-416-4328. Either way, just make sure to include your name and your location so we can use your comments on the show.

[Alex Osala]

Foreign. Hi, this is Alex Osala, host of the WSJ's what's News podcast. We bring you the biggest news of the day, from business and finance to global and political developments that move markets. If you're looking for more insights and tools to understand the latest headlines, consider becoming a subscriber to the Wall street journal. Visit subscribe.WSJ.com WhatsApp news to subscribe now.

[Luke Vargas]

China's exports have soared in the first two months of the year, rising more than 20% compared to a year earlier, highlighting a continued reliance on overseas demand. Exports to Southeast Asia and Europe were both more than 25% higher year on year, while exports to the US fell 11%. Meanwhile, shares of CATL surged in Asian trading today after the world's largest EV battery maker reported profit growth of 42% for last year. The Tesla supplier cruised past expectations in spite of higher lithium prices and cooling EV demand in China. And Nasdaq says it will work with crypto exchange Kraken and issuing companies in developing a plan to offer tokenized stocks on its exchange by early next year. The tie up will allow people around the world to buy and sell digital versions of American stocks 24, 7, not just during US business hours. Markets reporter Alexander Osipovich says it shows how digital assets are becoming a greater part of traditional investing.

[Alexander Osipovich]

So far, many of the companies that are doing tokenized equities are cryptocurrency companies that are startups that are a few years old and had a number of scrapes with the regulators. Nasdaq is a very established exchange. It is the place where Apple and Tesla stock is listed and they are proposing to do tokenized equities in a way where it would work more seamlessly with existing systems. For example, one problem right now with some of the versions of tokenized stocks out there is that you can't actually vote your shares theory. Being a shareholder means you get a chance to vote in shareholder votes and the tokens don't let you do that. So that's one of the problems that Nasdaq would solve.

[Luke Vargas]

Canada and the UK are backing away from proposed social media crackdowns. Canada has formally reversed its order to shut down TikTok's domestic unit, allowing the app to operate under new data and child safety conditions. Similarly, UK lawmakers have rejected an Australian style blanket ban on social media for those under 16, opting instead for more flexible restrictions to prevent children from accessing unregulated parts of the web. And if you're flying through US Airports this week, you might want to arrive earlier than originally planned. The ongoing partial government shutdown is triggering long security delays, with travelers advised to arrive four hours early. One passenger in New Orleans told WWL TV about the scene yesterday at the city's airport.

[Alex Osala]

I was here three weeks ago during Mardi Gras and it was no problem.

[Alexander Osipovich]

This is insane.

[Luke Vargas]

TSA officers are set to miss their first full paychecks this week, fueling staffing shortages just as the spring break travel rush begins. The Department of Homeland Security has remained largely shut since February 14th amid a funding deadlock in the Senate. And that's it for what's news for this Tuesday morning. Today's show was produced by Hattie Moyer and Daniel Bock. Our supervising producer is Sandra Kilhoff and I'm Luke Vargas for the Wall Street Journal. We will be back tonight with a new show. Until then, thanks for listening.

[Alexander Osipovich]

Foreign.

[Alex Osala]

Hey, this is Telus Demos and I'm Miriam Gottfried. We're reporters at the Wall Street Journal and The hosts of WSJ's take on the Week. It's a weekly show that gives listeners a leg up in the world of markets and investing. From the Fed's moves to market bubbles, we dive into the biggest deals, key players and business news ahead. If you're looking for more news and tools that you can use to help navigate the markets, consider becoming a subscriber to the Wall street journal, visit subscribe WSJ.com takeontheweek to subscribe now.