The Secret to Picking an On-Time Flight

Summary

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WSJ Your Money Briefing

Episode Title: The Secret to Picking an On-Time Flight
Date: October 13, 2017
Host: Tanya Bustos
Guest: Scott McCartney (Wall Street Journal’s “Middle Seat” Columnist)

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Main Theme

This episode explores the factors that determine the punctuality of commercial flights. Scott McCartney, an expert on airline reliability, discusses why some flights are more likely to arrive on time than others, what passengers can watch for when booking, and how airlines are leveraging data to improve their on-time record.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Not All Flights Are Equally Reliable (00:33–01:17)

• Most passengers choose flights based on price and schedule, but reliability of arrival is another important, often overlooked, metric.
• The Wall Street Journal has investigated the variables that make some flights more punctual than others.

2. Factors Affecting On-Time Performance (01:17–03:18)

• Aircraft Age:

  • Except for Delta, airlines with newer fleets tend to have more reliable flights. Delta manages to maintain high reliability even with older airplanes.
  • Quote: “Age is a factor at every airline except Delta. Delta does an amazing job with reliability with their older airplanes…”
    — Scott McCartney (01:17)

• Airplane Size:

  • Smaller regional jets are less reliable than larger planes, particularly during schedule disruptions (e.g., due to storms). Airlines prioritize moving the highest number of passengers, so smaller aircraft are often cut first during disruptions.

• Fleet Size & Concentration:

  • Airlines with larger, more concentrated fleets of the same aircraft model are more resilient to disruptions (e.g., mechanical issues), as they have more replacement options at their hubs.
  • Smaller fleets spread over several hubs make it difficult to substitute aircraft during irregular operations.

• Summary:

  • The biggest factor is how airlines use and schedule their airplanes (“man over machine”), rather than the machine itself.

3. Airlines’ Approach to Reliability & the Role of Data (03:18–04:57)

• Airlines have always monitored reliability, but now can analyze data at a much finer level.
• Industry consolidation has driven new approaches to large-scale scheduling.
• Delta as a Leader:
  • Delta uses a multidisciplinary team (mechanics, engineers, and data analysts) to predict part failures with high accuracy (claimed 90%), allowing them to proactively fix issues and prevent cancellations.
  • Quote: “They look at all kinds of key parts of the airplane. ... If a particular generator, ... there are signs of other things that lead back to the likelihood that that generator is going to fail soon. ... They swap it out before it fails and eliminate a potential cancellation.”
    — Scott McCartney (03:54)
• There’s a broad, ongoing industry focus on improving flight reliability.

4. Practical Takeaways for Travelers (04:57–06:03)

• Frequent travelers may prefer certain aircraft for comfort, but it's worthwhile to consider reliability stats, especially when punctuality is critical.
• On busy routes with multiple aircraft types, choosing a more reliable model can make a significant difference.
  • Example: “United Airlines 737s had 82% on-time reliability ... and the 757s were only 70%. ... If you have an option ... you might want to hedge your bets a little bit.”
    — Scott McCartney (05:34)
• On routes with less choice (e.g., only regional jets), options are limited.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the importance of reliability over machine age:
  “It turned out to be more of an issue of man over machine, if you will. How airlines schedule the airplanes really mattered more.”
  — Scott McCartney (02:55)

• On data-driven maintenance:
  “Delta ... put a team together of mechanics and engineers and also a bunch of data geeks, and they're able to really sort of predict failures. They claim 90% accuracy.”
  — Scott McCartney (03:36)

• Practical booking advice:
  “If you have an option to take a 737 instead of a 757, and it's important for you to get there on time, you might want to hedge your bets a little bit.”
  — Scott McCartney (05:49)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:33 – Introduction to Scott McCartney and episode topic
• 01:17 – Factors that affect on-time performance (age, size, and fleet management)
• 03:30 – How airlines use data to improve reliability
• 05:15 – Key takeaways and practical advice for travelers
• 06:03 – Episode wrap-up

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Conclusion

This episode delivers actionable insights for travelers who value punctuality. While price and schedule are primary factors in booking, understanding airline practices, aircraft type, and how airlines manage their fleets can increase your chances of an on-time arrival—especially for journeys where every minute counts.
For more detailed analysis, listeners are encouraged to read Scott McCartney’s “Middle Seat” column at WSJ.com.

Transcript

[Charles Schwab Sponsor]

This episode is brought to you by Charles Schwab. Decisions made in Washington can affect your portfolio every day, but what policy changes should investors be watching? Washington Wise is an original podcast from Charles Schwab that unpacks the stories making news in Washington right now and how they may affect your finances and portfolio. [e-mail] WashingtonWise. This is yous Money Matters from the Wall Street Journal.

[Tanya Bustos]

Hello, this is yous Money Matters from the Wall Street Journal. From the newsroom in New York, I'm Tanya Bustos. So The Wall Street Journal's Middle Seat columnist Scott McCartney brings up a good point. We pick flights by price and schedule, but if time is of the essence and when isn't it, it's worth considering. Flights, reliability of landing on time. There is a method to the madness. Here to break it all down is The Wall Street Journal's middle seat columnist Scott McCart, in via Skype. Hi, Scott.

[Scott McCartney]

Good to be with you.

[Tanya Bustos]

Oftentime when we're picking out our flights, we do see the precise aircraft. Most people really don't know one from the other, but maybe it's worth learning a bit about them, considering different aircrafts have varying records for on time arrivals and cancellations and what have you. What are some factors that come into play? Can you give us some examples?

[Scott McCartney]

Yeah, it's, it's really interesting. Age is a factor at every airline except Delta. Delta does an amazing job with reliability with their older airplanes, and they've got lots of older airplanes. But at other airlines, we did see a difference between older fleets and younger fleets. Size is an issue. The smaller regional jets have less reliability than larger planes, and that's really a function of how airlines react to storms and disruptions where they have to thin out schedules. And so they whack the the smaller airplanes so they get the most people moving to their destination that they can. But more than anything, it wasn't so much the airplane as how the airline used the airplane. So planes that are basically small fleets inside the airplane, there may be a couple dozen of the jets instead of a couple hundred. Those perform with less reliability, more cancellations, more late flights. They generally if you take a smaller fleet and you spread it out over several hubs, you're not going to have spare airplanes available. You're not going to have a whole lot of options if something goes wrong for switching out airplanes. If you have a couple hundred airplanes of the same variety and you concentrate them at hubs, well, when something goes wrong with one, you just switch to a different one and people can be on their way. A lot of times the passenger doesn't even know that there's been an aircraft switch. But you can do a lot more things to keep your reliability up. So it turned out to be more of an issue of man over machine, if you will. How airlines schedule the airplanes really mattered more.

[Tanya Bustos]

And you were able to break this down so succinctly due to the data that's available. Is there a lot of research on this? Are airlines pouring a lot into analyzing and understanding aircraft reliability in general?

[Scott McCartney]

Yeah, they really are. I think this is something that airlines have always looked at, but they're able to look at it with much more detail now. And I think they're learning more about how to run a schedule of a very large airline. You know, we've had a lot of consolidation in the business, and so they're learning new things. But airlines do look at their reliability plane by plane, fleet by fleet. And you know, Delta is a great example. Delta is doing some amazing things where they put a team together of mechanics and engineers and also a bunch of data geeks, and they're able to really sort of predict failures. They claim 90% accuracy. It's really remarkable. And so they look at all kinds of key parts of the airplane. And if a particular generator, they may have put a monitor on it, they may have figured out that there are signs of with other things that lead back to the likelihood that that generator is going to fail soon. And so they swap it out before it fails and eliminate a potential cancellation. There's just a lot going on in this area where they're doing a lot of things to improve reliability.

[Tanya Bustos]

We're speaking to the Wall street journal's Scott McCartney about how to pick on time flights. You're listening to the Wall Street Journal's you, Money Matters. Thanks for joining us. So, Scott, I encourage all of our listeners to check out your middle seat column. That kind of lays it all out. Before we go, any last tips? What would your top takeaway be?

[Scott McCartney]

I think it really is something to look at. You know, people who travel frequently, they may have favorite airplanes, they like a particular seat, they like a particular cabin. But it really is worth looking at. You know, you don't on a lot of trips, you don't have a choice. It's all regional jets, it's all certain type of airplane. But on a lot of busy routes, you do have a choice. So if you look at it and you say United Airlines 737s had 82% on time reliability over the time periods we looked at and the 757s were only 70%. So that's a significant difference. And if you have an option to take a 737 instead of a 757, and it's important for you to get there on time, you might want to hedge your bets a little bit.

[Tanya Bustos]

Certainly worth considering. Scott McCartney, thank you so much for the time.

[Scott McCartney]

Sure. Always good to be with you.

[Tanya Bustos]

For more on Scott McCartney's you can head to WSJ.com, he is creator, of course, of the weekly Middle Seat column on airlines and travel for the Journal. This has been youn Money Matters. I'm Tanya Bustos reporting from the newsroom in New York. Thanks for listening.

[Charles Schwab Sponsor]

This episode is brought to you by Charles Schwab. Decisions made in Washington can affect your portfolio every day. Washington Wise from Charles Schwab is an original podcast that unpacks the stories making news in Washington. [e-mail] WashingtonWise.