Your Best Holiday Vacation Bets

Summary

WSJ Your Money Briefing

Episode: Your Best Holiday Vacation Bets
Date: November 3, 2017
Host: Annemarie Fertoli
Guest: Scott McCartney, WSJ Reporter

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Annemarie Fertoli speaks with WSJ travel columnist Scott McCartney about how the recent damaging hurricane season is affecting holiday travel trends. The conversation dives into where bookings are dropping, which destinations are surging, how pricing is shifting, and top tips for travelers seeking the best vacation options this holiday season.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Hurricane Impact on Popular Destinations

• Bookings Down in Hard-Hit Regions

  • Puerto Rico: Down more than 30% in ticket sales for the holidays, with about 70% of the island still without electricity.
  • US Virgin Islands: Over 33% decline in bookings; most resorts in St. Thomas closed for most of 2018, while St. Croix fares slightly better.
  • Quote:
    "Puerto Rico, down more than 30% so far this year. The US Virgin Islands, also another place very hard hit."
    — Scott McCartney, [01:12]

• Relief Efforts Over Tourism

  • Hotels accommodating relief workers, not tourists; cruise ships docked for worker housing.
  • "The hotels that are able to operate are mostly housing relief workers. ...the tourism industry obviously taking a breather."
    — Scott McCartney, [01:56]

2. Where Are Travelers Headed Instead?

• Surge in Bookings to Unaffected Areas

  • Barbados: Christmas ticket sales up 37%; fares also up more than 20%.
  • Cayman Islands: Up 19% for Christmas, with fares actually down.
  • Increases also in: Bahamas, Jamaica, Aruba, St. Lucia, Mexico, and Hawaii.
  • Quote:
    "Ticket sales for Barbados already up 37%... Cayman Islands up 19% for Christmas."
    — Scott McCartney, [02:47]

• Airlines Reallocate Planes

  • Redeployment to unaffected markets creates new travel opportunities and sometimes better fares.
  • "Airlines will redeploy those planes that aren't going to the Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico and they'll go somewhere else."
    — Scott McCartney, [02:58]

3. Deals and Prices: What to Expect

• Miami Beach Promotions

  • Local authorities organize 20-25% hotel discounts for holidays—rare at this time of year.
  • "Miami Beach...offering 20, 25% discounts. This is a promotion really to draw attention to the fact that Miami beach came through relatively unscathed."
    — Scott McCartney, [03:36]

• Airfare Trends

  • General increase in air service, especially from discount airlines; average prices may rise or fall slightly, depending on destination.
  • Hawaii: Increased flights mean more tickets but lower fares.
    • "Number of tickets sold is up, but at the same time fares are down...not necessarily been the case out there."
      — [04:17]
  • Expect firm prices overall, with notable increases only in high-demand, less-affected destinations.

4. European Holiday Travel on the Rise

• More Americans Book Europe, Especially via Discount Airlines
  • Rise of discount carriers (WOW, Norwegian, Condor) is driving affordability.
  • Bookings for London, Paris, and notably Amsterdam (up 70% for Christmas).
  • "A lot of it is driven by the rise of discount long-haul airlines into the United States offering really cheap deals."
    — Scott McCartney, [04:50]

5. Overall Outlook for the Holiday Travel Season

• Strong Holiday Travel Season Anticipated
  • Robust economy and strong U.S. dollar support spending on travel.
  • Air travel expected up 3-5%, with prices "firm" but not sky-high.
  • "There's a lot of interest in travel experiences...overall we'll see air travel up 3 to 5% or so."
    — Scott McCartney, [06:13]

6. Booking Timing & Procrastinator Advice

• When to Book

  • For Thanksgiving: “Now is the time”—prices will spike within a week after Halloween.
  • For Christmas: More gradual price increases, but will rise substantially about 3-4 weeks ahead.
  • "The cheapest prices have already come and gone, but I think you've got about a week or so more for Thanksgiving before prices really start to spike."
    — Scott McCartney, [08:01]

• Pro-Tip for Procrastinators

  • Be creative: look at new discount airlines, places like Iceland (cheap flights, though expensive to stay), and expanded service to Hawaii.
  • "With all the new service into the United States from European discount airlines—you know, there are some really great fares out there...Iceland is a very popular destination these days."
    — Scott McCartney, [08:51]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On shifting holiday travel patterns:
  "People are figuring out where the good places to go are and they are determined to find a beach for the holiday travel periods."
  — Scott McCartney, [02:13]

• Impact of airline competition:
  "The established airlines actually matching some of their prices or cutting their prices to get closer to the discount airlines."
  — Scott McCartney, [05:04]

• Creative travel ideas:
  "If you look around from the West Coast, certainly there are a lot more airlines flying to Hawaii. There will be more next year when Southwest starts service to Hawaii."
  — Scott McCartney, [09:13]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:12] — Bookings drop in hurricane-hit Caribbean destinations.
• [02:36] — Surge in alternative beach destinations.
• [03:36] — Miami Beach deals and airfare trends.
• [04:50] — Influx of bookings to Europe due to discount airlines.
• [06:13] — Prognosis for holiday travel strength.
• [08:01] — Last call for Thanksgiving and Christmas deals.
• [08:51] — Final recommendations for creative travel options.

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Summary Takeaways

• Expect strong holiday travel demand, with some deals still available—especially if you look beyond the obvious spots.
• Hurricane-hit regions (like Puerto Rico and USVI) have sharply declined in bookings; alternatives in the Caribbean, Mexico, Hawaii, and Europe are surging.
• Discount airlines are opening up new, affordable options to Europe.
• Book Thanksgiving flights ASAP; you have a little more time for Christmas, but act before the last 3-4 weeks to avoid price spikes.
• Travel creatively—think new carriers, new routes, untapped destinations, and use flexible timing for the best values.

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For more, listen to the full episode or check out the Wall Street Journal’s travel coverage.

Transcript

[A]

Still running global payroll like a relay race. Deal replaces fragmented payroll vendors with one global system. No third parties hire, manage and pay teams in 150 plus countries with in house local experts and white glove delivery and deal plugs into what you already use. Workday SAP Netsuite operate like a local everywhere. Visit d e l.com WSJ that's d e e l.com WSJ. This is yous Money Matters from the Wall Street Journal.

[B]

Welcome to youo Money Matters. I'm Ann Marie Fertoldi in New York. A damaging hurricane season is impacting travel trends. Bookings are up in places that were spared by major storms, while reservations in areas that were harder hit dropped significantly. Wall Street Journal reporter Scott McCartney joins us now to talk about what you need to know if you're looking to travel during the holiday season. Scott, obviously a lot of people go to these go to spots in the Caribbean and they're having a tough time this year as they recover from the hurricane season. Where are you seeing bookings drop in places that are particularly hurting right now?

[C]

I think Puerto Rico obviously is the hardest hit right now. We looked at tickets already sold for Thanksgiving and Christmas from the US to various destinations in the Caribbean and Mexico and elsewhere. And Puerto Rico, down more than 30% so far this year. The US Virgin Islands, also another place very hard hit. The resorts on St. Thomas basically will be closed for most of 2018. St. Croix is in a little bit better shape. St. Thomas not in as good shape. So again, we saw more than a 33% decline there in ticket buying.

[B]

Wow. So that is something I would expect in Puerto Rico. I think the latest estimates show that still 70% of the island is without electricity.

[C]

Yeah. And the hotels that are able to operate are mostly housing relief workers. There are two cruise ships and instead they're docking in Puerto Rico and providing housing for relief workers. It's a very bad situation there. You know, some people are going to help family and friends and things like that, but I think the tourism industry obviously taking a breather. What's really been interesting and surprising to a lot of tour companies is that people are figuring out where the good places to go are and they are determined to find a beach for the holiday travel periods. And so we're seeing large increases at places that are up and running.

[B]

Right. Very important, especially as it gets colder here in New York. I was going to ask you about the other side of that coin. Which areas are seeing an influx of bookings as a result, as people like you say are Looking for a beach.

[C]

Yeah. So for Christmas, ticket sales for Barbados already up 37%. Fares were up pretty significantly more than 20% there as well. Cayman Islands up 19% for Christmas. Interesting that fares were down a little bit there. The fare situation is interesting because airlines will redeploy those planes that aren't going to the Virgin Islands or aren't going to Puerto Rico and they'll go somewhere else. So there will be opportunities. But we saw increases in ticket sales for the Bahamas, for Jamaica, for Aruba, for St. Lucia, for Mexico, and also for Hawaii. There is a lot more air service into Hawaii and I think a lot more popularity there too.

[B]

So for these areas that are seeing more travelers than usual, are you seeing any better deals spring up or other types of preparation for more travelers than usual?

[C]

Well, I think there are some deals here and there. It was interesting to me. Miami beach, the local tourism authority organized a deal with hotels, with select hotels where they're offering 20, 25% discounts. This is a promotion really to draw attention to the fact that Miami beach came through relatively unscathed and they know there are people out there looking for alternatives to their usual places. What was interesting about the promotion was the discounts are good over Thanksgiving and Christmas and you don't usually see that. I think in general, you know, there is more airline service in the United States, a lot of it on discount airlines. I think prices will be on average up a little bit, maybe down a little bit. We're certainly seeing some declines. Hawaii's interesting. There's a lot more flights into Hawaii. So the number of tickets sold is up, but at the same time fares are down. And usually when you see increased demand, it does push up prices. That's not necessarily been the case out there.

[B]

And let's talk about Europe as well. It seems as you read in the Wall Street Journal article, that there are more bookings to places in Europe as opposed to what we've been mostly talk about the Caribbean, where hurricanes obviously were a huge factor this year.

[C]

Yeah, I think this is a really interesting trend and again, I think a lot of it is driven by the rise of discount long haul airlines into the United States offering really cheap deals, whether it's WOW or Condor or some of the other discount airlines, Norwegian flying to a lot of US Cities and the established airlines actually matching some of their prices or cutting their prices to get closer to the discount airlines. So a fair number of deals, you know, you didn't necessarily see a whole lot of travel to London or Paris for as early For Thanksgiving, it's a, it's a relatively short holiday, but people are going and they're finding good deals. Expedia said its activity for London was up significantly for Thanksgiving, for Paris up significantly. And Amsterdam, Amsterdam was up like 70% for Christmas trips. So those are fun places to go for Christmas. Certainly cold and not the warm weather experience you might want, but there's just a lot more interest in using those holiday breaks. You get to go farther.

[B]

We're speaking with The Wall Street Journal's Scott McCartney about holiday travel trends after a strong hurricane season. You're listening to youo Money Matters from the Wall Street Journal. Thanks for listening, everybody. Scott, from what you see so far, what can you tell us about the strength of the holiday travel season, looking ahead for November and December?

[C]

Yeah, I think it's going to be a very strong season. I think, you know, the economy's doing well. People have money to spend. There's a lot of interest in travel experiences. I think going abroad, the dollar is still relatively strong. The increase that we've seen in discount airlines has pumped a lot of cheap seats into markets and people are taking advantage of that. So I think overall we'll see air travel up 3 to 5% or so, and I think prices will be firm. I don't think you're going to find, you know, unbelievable deals out there. I don't think you're going to find huge increases except for the particular unscathed islands that are in high demand. But overall, there are just going to be a whole lot of people traveling.

[B]

Now, what are airlines reporting in terms of ticket sales so far? I know it's pretty early, but, you know, time goes pretty quickly when we're talking about booking for the holiday season.

[C]

Yeah, well, airlines don't report sales until they report earnings, but there are some tracking services that we look at. And there's a company called Airlines Reporting Corp. That actually processes tickets for travel agencies, both online and traditional, as well as corporate travel agencies. So you can get some early reads from some of that. Hopper is a fare tracking firm that keeps track, that looks at things like how far in advance to buy tickets. And so far what they're seeing is, you know, it's some increases in pricing, certainly there are some decreases in markets. But overall I think it'll be, you know, prices will average up in the single digits.

[B]

Okay. And let's talk about the procrastinators among us who may not have booked their holiday travel yet. How much time do we reasonably have left until we really see prices start to skyrocket and availability kind of dropped.

[C]

Yeah, I think for Thanksgiving, now is the time. It's interesting, it's really sort of after Halloween that people get serious about actually booking their holiday trips. Now the cheapest prices have already come and gone, but I think you've got about a week or so more for Thanksgiving before prices really start to spike. And the closer you get to Thanksgiving, they do spike up considerably. Christmas, the increases are slower as you go forward. It's not quite the sharp spike you see in the two weeks before Thanksgiving, but once you get three or four weeks from Christmas Day, prices do start rising considerably.

[B]

Okay, so we may be too late for some of those better deals, but do you have any final recommendations for travelers looking to get away?

[C]

I think be creative with all the new service into the United States from European discount airlines. You know, there are some really great fares out there and good places to go. There are a couple airlines in Iceland that are flying to the US and offering connections to Europe. Iceland is a very popular destination these days. It's expensive once you get there, but cheap to get there. And there you can continue on to a number of cities in Europe. I think if you, you know, you look around from the west coast, certainly there are a lot more airlines flying to Hawaii. There will be more next year when Southwest starts service to Hawaii. So a lot more ways to get around to different places and people are taking advantage of them.

[B]

Okay, some great tips there. That's The Wall Street Journal's Scott McCartney joining us via Skype. Scott, thank you so much.

[C]

Sure. Great to be with you and thank

[B]

you for listening to youo Money Matters. I'm Annemarie Fertoldi for the Wall Street Journal.

[A]

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