You Are Not So Smart – Episode 308 – Magical Thinking ft. Matt Tompkins

Release Date: March 3, 2025
Host: David McRaney
Guest: Matt Tompkins, psychologist and magician

Episode Overview

This episode delves into magical thinking—the tendency of the human mind to explain puzzling experiences through supernatural or irrational beliefs. With guest Matt Tompkins, an experimental psychologist and practicing magician, David McRaney explores the history, psychology, and persistent allure of magical thinking. Through stories like Clever Hans and spiritualist hoaxes, they examine why, despite centuries of scientific advances and debunking efforts, magical thinking endures. The episode blends psychology, magic, history, and contemporary research, including Tompkins's own scientific magic studies.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Story of Clever Hans and the Roots of Magical Thinking

[01:11–25:50]

• Clever Hans:
  David opens with the legend of Clever Hans, a horse supposedly able to solve math and language problems. Scientists discovered Hans was responding to unconscious cues from his handler, not solving problems himself.

  • "Hans only gave correct answers when the questioner knew the answer and could see the answer... Hans’s accuracy dropped tremendously [when these cues were unavailable]." (David McRaney, 16:20)

• Self-deception and Unconscious Cues:
  The investigation revealed that even well-intentioned individuals can unknowingly deceive themselves and others through subtle, unconscious signals—an effect later named the “Clever Hans phenomenon.”

• Scientific Impact:
  The story led to the development of double-blind protocols in psychology and medicine, emphasizing how easy it is for both subject and experimenter to become unintentionally biased.

2. The Persistent Cycle of Magical Thinking

[25:50–30:29]

• Recurring Narratives:
  The episode acknowledges that every generation sees a “revival” of magical thinking—astrology apps, paranormal fascination, etc.—but this is a recurring motif, not a new phenomenon.

  • "Anytime you get any kind of shift in a media landscape, people adapt into it... you get these same very, or at least very similar, patterns of deception and self-deception." (Matt Tompkins, 27:50)

• Human Condition:
  David and Matt discuss whether magical thinking is simply part of the human condition and unlikely to ever disappear.

  • "There’ll always be somebody tricking, and being tricked, and it’ll always be with us no matter what tech comes along." (Paraphrasing, 28:51–29:35)

3. The Intersection of Magic, Deception, and Scientific Method

[35:56–44:53]

• Introducing Matt Tompkins:
  Tompkins discusses his dual role as a magician and researcher, currently developing “fake mind control devices” to study how people react to seemingly real but wholly illusory technology.

  • "We bring people into the lab, get them in a situation where it’s effectively a magic show... and then we ask them questions about it. That’s the gig." (Matt Tompkins, 36:42)

• Metacognitive Impenetrability:
  Self-deception is often metacognitively impenetrable—beyond our introspective awareness—so even knowledgeable people can be fooled.

  • "There’s no level of introspection that’s going to unlock what’s happening. You need controls to look at what’s mechanistically happening." (Tompkins, 39:56)

4. Magic as a Gateway to Science & The Science of Magic Association

[40:52–47:08]

• Personal Journeys:
  Both McRaney and Tompkins entered psychology and skepticism through fascination with magic tricks as children.

  • Tompkins: "For me, it was coins... I saw a guy do a sort of levitation with a coin at a county fair, and that was my starter thing." (41:13)

• The Science of Magic Association (SOMA):
  Tompkins co-founded SOMA to connect magicians and scientists, using stage magic as a window into studying perception and cognition.

  • "The idea is to bring together performers... with researchers to collaborate." (Tompkins, 44:53)

5. Experimenting With Perception and False Memories

[47:47–52:19]

• Bluff Vanish Study:
  Tompkins reports on an experiment where participants observed a magic trick in which a coin is “vanished”—even though no coin was ever present.

  • "About 30% of people would swear confidently that there was something the magician had made disappear. About a third of those would give very specific visual details—there was nothing there." (Tompkins, 49:59)

• Implications for Memory:
  The trick demonstrates how easily people form false memories or perceptions, reinforcing the unreliability of eyewitness testimony and the constructive nature of memory.

6. The Historical Alliance: Magicians and Scientists Debunking the Paranormal

[53:07–67:45]

• Spiritualism and Empirical Religion:
  Explores the 19th-century spiritualism movement, the famous Fox sisters, and the attempt to claim empirical evidence for the paranormal.

• Scientists as Debunkers:
  Prominent scientists (e.g., Alfred Russel Wallace) often debated or believed in spiritualism; others tried to test claims with the help of magicians.

  • “First thing [the Society for Psychical Research] tried to do is hire magicians… But when the medium knew there was a magician, [they’d say] ‘getting a bad energy—my powers are not working today.’” (Tompkins, 55:56 & 63:21)

• Blank Seances and Belief:
  Even when magicians exposed fraud, believers would rationalize failures as proof of authenticity or sabotage.

  • "If it was a trick, they could obviously reproduce it on command. But if they can’t, maybe there's something else going on." (Tompkins, 63:55)

• Cold Reading and the Forer Effect:
  Discusses how cold reading works, why it’s effective, and the psychological basis for why people see meaning in general statements.

7. The Evolutionary Roots and Survival of Magical Thinking

[72:06–end]

• Evolutionary Perspective:
  McRaney frames magical thinking as an adaptive evolutionary relic—seeing agency and causality helped survival, even when it produces false positives.

  • "A false positive was often a trivial error, but a false negative could be fatal. Magical thinking and superstition are ancient impulses encoded in human cognition. You can’t help it." (McRaney, 72:06–73:00)

• Why Science Matters:
  The scientific method exists precisely to counteract these mental vulnerabilities. With double-blind methods and controlled experiments, magical thinking collapses under scrutiny.

• Debunking with Compassion:
  Many practitioners of debunked practices truly believe in what they do—self-deception is the most potent kind.

  • "It very often is not malice, but a form of self-deception. And as the history of human cognition has shown, self-deception is the most potent kind of deception there is." (McRaney, 74:00)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Persistence of Magical Thinking:
  “Anytime you get any kind of shift in a media landscape, people adapt into it… same patterns of deception and self-deception.”
  — Matt Tompkins, 27:50

• On Self-Deception:
  “The questioners… had no idea they were doing this. All this time, he had been unaware he was influencing Clever Hans. He believed he was observing independent agency and intelligence.”
  — David McRaney, 17:30

• On Why Debunking is Never "Finished":
  "I thought we were done with all of this. My assumption that I lived in a future where magical thinking was so easily debunked... was, for me, in essence, a pretty clear example of self-deception."
  — David McRaney, 25:26

• On Magic As a Tool for Science:
  "Magic is a really great way at getting to the gap between how it feels like our minds work... and how they actually work."
  — Matt Tompkins, 72:00

• On the Evolutionary Role of Magical Thinking:
  “Magical thinking and superstition are ancient impulses encoded in human cognition… The human brain evolved for survival, not for truth, for speed, not accuracy.”
  — David McRaney, 72:40

Important Segment Timestamps

• The Story of Clever Hans & Its Impact (01:11–25:50)
• Magical Thinking as a Timeless Human Trait (25:50–30:29)
• Meet Matt Tompkins & His Research (35:56–44:53)
• Magic as Both a Gateway and Object of Scientific Study (44:53–47:08)
• Memory, Perception, and the Psychology of Magic (47:47–52:19)
• Historical Cases: Spiritualism, False Testimony, and Early Debunking (53:07–67:45)
• Contemporary Implications & Evolutionary Lens (72:06–74:45)

Further Reading & Resources

• Matt Tompkins’s book: The Spectacle of Illusion
• Recommended: Sleights of Mind by Stephen Macknik, Susana Martinez-Conde, and Sandra Blakeslee
• Science of Magic Association: SOMA Website

Takeaway

Magical thinking is a deep, enduring part of the human experience. It is resilient, adaptive, and fueled as much by our evolved cognition as by our cultural moment. Whether through Clever Hans, spiritualists, or AI mind-reading scams, the impulse and susceptibility to magical thinking remain—requiring humility, skepticism, and scientific rigor to keep ourselves honest.

“Self-deception is the most potent kind of deception there is.”

Episode links and references available at youarenotsosmart.com and in the show notes.