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Episode: What Would It Take to Actually Trust Each Other? The Game Theory Dilemma

Date: January 8, 2026
Hosts: Tristan Harris, Aza Raskin (Center for Humane Technology)
Guest: Sonia Amadei – Professor of Political Science, University of Helsinki; Director, Centre for Existential Risk, University of Cambridge; Author, Prisoners of Reason and the Neoliberal Economy

Overview

In this episode, Tristan Harris and Aza Raskin explore the pervasive influence of game theory on modern society, technology, and politics. They’re joined by Professor Sonia Amadei, who challenges the inevitability of the game-theoretic worldview and exposes its limitations as a vision of human nature. Together, they discuss how game theory—originally conceived to model competitive games like chess and poker—has come to shape our technology, culture, and institutions, often at the expense of trust, cooperation, and authenticity. The conversation highlights the urgent need to rethink fundamental assumptions about competition and rationality, especially in the age of AI.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The "Game Theory Dilemma": How Did We Get Here?

• Definition: Game theory embeds the logic “if I don’t do it, someone else will, and I’ll lose,” pushing everyone into strategic rationality at the expense of cooperation and trust. (00:29)
  • Quote (Tristan Harris, 00:29):
    “If I don't build the advanced AI as fast as possible and take all the shortcuts, even though taking shortcuts is bad for humanity, well, then I'll just lose and they'll win. And cooperation, therefore, is for suckers.”
  • Aza Raskin clarifies (01:26):
    “We sort of call this the game theory dilemma, which is to say that if I adopt game theory and you don't, you lose.”

Origins in History

• Von Neumann & The Birth of Game Theory:
  • John von Neumann created game theory to model parlor games and transferred its logic to the nuclear standoff—reducing human affairs to win-lose scenarios.
  • Quote (Aza, 08:05):
    “Now this very dimensionally reduced model of what humans are, ones where we don't cooperate, is now the basis for the most important decisions the world is making.”

Ubiquity in Modern Life

• “Colonization” by Game Theory (03:26–06:18):
  • Shows up in social media, software (A/B testing), dating (pickup artistry), political communication, cultural strategies, and AI competition—all driven by optimization and measurable outcomes, depleting authentic connection.
  • Quote (Tristan, 05:57):
    “What it leads to is this kind of deadening of culture, this deadening of dating, this deadening of relationships, this deadening of software design.”

2. Game Theory’s Assumptions and Limits

a) Scarcity and Value

• Game theory assumes all value is scarce and quantifiable (07:13, 17:13)
  • Sonia Amadei:
    von Neumann believed all values could be monetized and captured as “expected utility.”
  • Critique:
    Most of what humans actually find meaningful—trust, love, esteem, belonging—are positive sum; “if one person has self-esteem, it doesn't take away from another's.” (18:28)

b) Essentialism and Rationality

• Prescribes a narrow, hyper-competitive vision of human nature (21:42–22:57)
  • Assumptions include:
    • Humans are essentially strategic, competitive, rational actors.
    • Scarcity is inevitable and non-negotiable.
    • There is no workable alternative to competition.
  • Quote (Sonia, 22:29):
    “The assumption that we are programmed to be this way means there is no alternative. That you cannot but be an individual competitor, a strategic competitor, or you will, you'll pay the price for that.”

c) The Self-Fulfilling Virus

• Once introduced, game theory logic spreads and “infects” trust-based cultures, turning communication and relationships into calculated exchanges. (13:30)
  • Quote (Tristan, 13:30):
    “It's almost its own memetic kind of infection. It actually infects everyone else's thinking ... You can see it like a global virus ... colonizing the world and bringing more people into that mode of reasoning.”

3. Consequences: Inauthenticity and the Selection for Psychopathy

• Rise of Strategic Rationality (20:17):
  • Cultures or systems dominated by game theory select for “the dark triad”—narcissists, Machiavellians, and psychopaths—because empathy is a liability in cold competition.
  • Quote (Tristan, 20:17):
    “The world looks like it's run by psychopaths, well, that's because the system being run more by game theory selected for those who would actually be complicit and not have a problem with playing that perverse game.”

4. Escaping the Prisoner’s Dilemma

Trust, Solidarity, and Commitment

• Alternative to Strategic Rationality:

  • Trustworthiness: “If the other guy cooperates, I will.”
  • Solidarity and commitment as basic prosocial building blocks.

• Finnish Example:

  • In high-trust societies like Finland, game theory’s logic feels alien—students instinctively cooperate, undermining the universality of the prisoner’s dilemma. (11:31)
    • Quote (Sonia, 11:31):
      “The students just cooperate there. They can't fathom [the prisoner’s dilemma logic] ... Finland is a very high trust society.”

• Breaking Out (25:47):

  • Solidarity and collective action historically break the spell—Gandhi, Tiananmen Square protestors acted outside of “strategic rationality.”

5. AI: Supercharging the Game Theory Problem

• AI Arms Every Arms Race (15:59, 27:46):

  • AI exponentially amplifies existing competitive pressures:

    • Military
    • Corporate
    • Politics/Memetics

  • AI systems operationalize perfect game-theoretic actors, further undermining trust and cooperation.

  • Policy Consequence: (29:16)

    • The race for AI "asymmetric advantage" leads to regulatory paralysis (e.g., US pushing preemption to stop any state-level AI regulation).

• AI, Language, and Manipulation (34:46–36:32):

  • AI can prompt, manipulate, and test language at scale, dissolving social reality if it adheres to purely strategic communication regimes.
    • Quote (Aza, 34:46):
      “AI prompts us ... AI can search through all signal language space to find the most effective ways to manipulate us. And that is a kind of threat that humanity has never, ever had to deal with.”
    • Quote (Sonia, 35:40):
      “Because language is how we socially construct the world, that we're letting AI take control of this profound tool ... with whatever logic it's programmed into.”

6. Is There a Way Out? – Rethinking Human Nature and Coordination

Challenging the Foundations

• Fundamental change requires:
  • Recognizing not all goods are scarce—most are positive sum (23:10).
  • Choosing trustworthiness and authentic action: “Keeping one's word ... is a basic duty for being a citizen in society.” (26:02)
  • Participating in “team reasoning”—shifting from individual optimization to group-level cooperation. (43:06)

Societal and Policy Shifts

• Cultural Wake-Up Call:
  • Referenced “The Day After” (1983) nuclear war movie, which shifted public and elite perspectives on nuclear policy—suggesting a similar event might trigger collective action for AI. (37:51)
  • Quote (Aza, 40:07):
    “With AI, game theory becomes destiny ... if we can all see that and see it clearly, that means cooperation does become the rational thing.”

Evolutionary Perspective

• Not Just Competition—Mutual Aid Matters (42:01–43:06):
  • Darwin and biologists after him debated whether evolution was about selfish competition or mutual aid; at the group level, cooperation can outperform competition.
    • Quote (Aza, 42:01):
      “Selfish individuals do outcompete altruistic individuals, but groups of altruistic people outcompete groups of selfish people—and everything else is commentary.”

Minimal Steps Forward

• Sonia’s Three Thoughts on Moving Forward: (37:28)

  1. Freedom of Choice: Opting for trustworthy action.
  2. Cultural Imagination: Creating events that clarify the existential costs of defection and inspire new paradigms.
  3. Participatory Re-education: Giving leaders and the public exposure to alternatives to game-theoretic rationality.
  • Quote (Sonia, 43:06):
    “If we can start to believe that there would be an alternative possibility, then maybe that's the first step ... Maybe we can start to create other social patterns and not lose hope.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Tristan (05:57):
  “What you see out there in the world when it feels dead or meaningless or cold or strategic, that's not authenticity. That's actually just a world that has been colonized by game theory.”

• Sonia (20:17):
  “The better you are at not empathizing with others, the more you can act just cold rationally... the better you'll do at these kinds of cold games. The more Machiavellian and strategic your mind is ... the better you'll do at these games.”

• Aza (42:01):
  “Selfish individuals do outcompete altruistic individuals, but groups of altruistic people outcompete groups of selfish people—and everything else is commentary.”

• Sonia (23:10):
  “Most of us experience the higher levels of the Maslow pyramid and know that those are not zero sum goods.... how do we bring that love, empathy and positive-sum goods into our world?”

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Introduction & Framing the Dilemma – 00:04–03:26
• Examples of Game Theory’s Spread – 03:26–06:18
• History and von Neumann’s Influence – 07:13–09:37
• Prisoner's Dilemma, Finnish Example – 11:31–13:30
• Game Theory’s Infection of Trust – 13:30–15:35
• AI as a Game Theory Accelerator – 15:59–16:54, 27:46–29:16
• Game Theory’s Assumptions – 17:13–22:57
• How to Challenge the Paradigm – 23:10–26:02
• Solidarity/Commitment as Alternatives – 25:47–26:02
• Language, AI, and Manipulation Risks – 34:46–36:32
• Paths Forward: Sonia’s Three Part Solution – 37:28–40:07
• Evolutionary Biology and Mutual Aid – 42:01–43:06

Tone and Language

• The conversation is thoughtful, at times urgent and philosophical, blending academic rigor with accessible real-world analogies. The hosts and guest share a sense of mission—inviting listeners to reimagine what’s possible and to resist fatalism.

Closing Summary

This episode asks listeners to reconsider a basic tenet of modern life: that ruthless competition is inevitable, justified, and rational. By exposing the historical contingency of game theory and highlighting real-world examples—like high-trust societies and social movements—it invites us to opt for trust, solidarity, and collective commitment, especially as we navigate the uncharted territories of AI and global coordination. The conversation is ultimately hopeful, suggesting that clarity about the true stakes can awaken agency and inspire a departure from the destructive destinies spelled out by cold mathematical logic.