Podcast
Zero Days To Expiration
Hosted by Ernie Varitimos · EN
Coach Ernie spent 40 years in institutional trading, hedge fund management, and FinTech. Now he teaches retail traders how to flip the script on risk — using zero DTE butterfly strategies that risk small and aim big. Every episode covers volatility, volume profile, market structure, and the daily routine that separates professionals from everyone else. Live every Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.
18episodes
Episodes
Newest firstAll episodes
The Best Way to Trade 0DTE
5d ago00:39:26Tap to summarizeThere are a dozen ways to trade zero-day options. Most of them will eat your account. One of them has the math on its side. Part 2 of the 28-Day series — the method behind the promise. Presentation https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/wcg3qs24dxkhmdtmv44ap/Best_Way_To_Trade_0DTE.pptx?rlkey=2183yer75ycjb6y4j1y68v696&dl=0 In this episode: The field: lotto calls, credit spreads, iron condors, naked options, gamma scalping The five criteria that define "best": defined risk, asymmetric payoff, rules-executable, repeatable, scalable Why the OTM butterfly clears all five — and why the alternatives each fail at least one What the alternatives sacrifice — and why those sacrifices compound against you over time The structural reason "best" is a math question, not a style question Best isn't an opinion. It's what the math forces you to. → Test it for 28 days as an Observer: https://flyonthewall.ai/try 4-week paid trial. Daily livestream, Friday coaching call, Discord community, and the full 0DTE framework. Stay through month-end and the Navigator annual plan unlocks at 35% off. Our goal is to make you Consistently Profitable, become an Independent Trader, and Trade at a Pro-level.
Transcribe →28 Days to Become a Profitable 0DTE Trader
6d ago00:55:00Tap to summarizeTwenty-eight days isn't long enough to make you a master. It's exactly long enough to make you a trader who knows — knows the framework, knows whether the rules pay, and knows whether they can execute. Part 1 of a three-part series this week on the path from skeptic to consistently profitable 0DTE trader. In this episode: What "profitable" actually means at Day 28 — and why it's not what most traders think it means Why 28 days is the right diagnostic window — not 28 minutes, not 28 months The four things you'll have on Day 28 if you commit What separates the traders who get there from the ones who quit on Day 19 Presentation Link: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/mhr1xgg8rguby0d7w8ubq/28-Days-to-Expert-v2_4.pptx?rlkey=twdxdgrwt61kszl7jk4603cv9&dl=0 The clock starts when you do. → Start your 28 days as an Observer: https://flyonthewall.ai/try 4-week paid trial. Daily livestream, Friday coaching call, Discord community, and the full 0DTE framework. Stay through month-end and the Navigator annual plan unlocks at 35% off. Our goal is to make you Consistently Profitable, become an Independent Trader, and Trade at a Pro-level.
Transcribe →Getting Closer to the Money Gonna Cost You
2w ago00:53:17Tap to summarize_*]:min-w-0 gap-3 font-claude-response"> You think moving your butterfly closer to the money gives you a better shot — but what if it's actually bleeding your account dry? In this episode, Coach Ernie breaks down the math behind why paying less for a better risk-to-reward is the real edge in 0-DTE trading. He walks through how to spot convexity in butterfly pricing — that moment when the cost drops off a cliff between strikes — and why chasing that drop instead of chasing proximity to the money is what separates consistent traders from the ones grinding sideways. What you'll learn: The 10% debit rule: why your butterfly should never cost more than 10% of the width — and why that's a ceiling, not a target How to read the price curve between strikes and find the "kink" where convexity lives Why a cheaper fly further out can pay the same or more than an expensive one closer in — for 40% less capital The expected move trap: why trading inside the expected move limits your upside while exposing you to the same losses Real examples from live 0-DTE SPX chains showing exactly how Coach filters and selects positions How this approach produces a Sharpe ratio of 4 with max drawdown under 6% and a 50/50 win rate Coach also shares takeaways from his recent keynote at TraderFest, hosted by Tradier and sponsored by Cboe, where he presented this exact framework to a room full of professional traders. Ready to see how this works in real time? Join Coach Ernie's live trade room at flyonthewall.ai — watch every trade, every receipt, every decision as it happens. Start with a no-commitment 4-week trial, cancel anytime week by week. Your first look at how convexity trading actually works is just one click away.
Transcribe →Your 0DTE Strategy Only Covers 25% of the Day
4w ago00:35:44Tap to summarizeMost 0DTE traders don't realize they're only participating in 25% of the actual trading day — and in a low-VIX regime like this one, that's exactly where the wheels come off. When volatility drops, premium gets pulled out of your contracts the day before you ever place the trade, and the real moves happen overnight while the market is closed to you. So you wake up to a gap, watch a session of dojis, and wonder why your usual setup keeps grinding nickels. Presentation Link This week's series breaks down the fix: the Batman 1DTE — a strategy Coach Ernie and the Fly On The Wall traders developed in late 2023 specifically for low-VIX, gap-and-doji conditions. In this episode: Why low volatility is the worst regime for credit spreads (and why "high win rate" is a canard) The 25% problem: the real trading day is 24 hours, not 6.5 Gaps and dojis — what they tell you about where the premium actually went The Batman setup: long call fly above + long put fly below, placed the night before How a six-month member-run experiment turned this into a permanent fixture in the VIX Playbook When to switch from 0DTE to 1DTE — and how the Zombieland regime tells you to push DTE even further out Q&A: ES futures vs. SPX cost math, capital allocation per Batman, and PDT considerations This is Day 1 of a three-part series. Tomorrow: the trade mechanics — entry, sizing, and profit management. Wednesday: the results. Want to trade the Batman alongside Coach and the Navigator group? Start your 4-week free trial at https://flyonthewall.ai/try Our goal is to make you Consistently Profitable, become an Independent Trader, and Trade at a Pro-level.
Transcribe →Why High Win Rate Strategies Destroy Accounts
May 400:43:29Tap to summarizeIn this episode of Zero Days to Expiration, Coach Ernie unpacks why high win rate strategies quietly destroy retail trading accounts — and why the inverse approach (low win rate, asymmetric risk-to-reward) is how professionals actually trade 0DTE options. Why 75% of your profit comes from extrinsic value — and why that changes everything about where you place your butterflies The "loser distribution" that creates rollercoaster equity curves, and the right-skewed long-tail distribution that produces a stair-step account instead The 10% debit rule for wide butterflies and why pushing further out of the money is counterintuitive but mathematically correct The probability breakdown nobody talks about: you only land inside the profit tent ~12.5% of the time — and that's a feature, not a bug Why volume profile, node edges, and market memory are real structure — while trend lines, fair value gaps, and moving averages are not How GEX and gamma exposure tell you when price is in compression vs expansion mode Join Fly on the Wall https://flyonthewall.ai/try
Transcribe →Mastering Volume Profile for 0DTE Entries
May 300:53:00Tap to summarizeReturn to the foundational tool that powers every high-probability 0DTE butterfly: Volume Profile done right. Coach Ernie shows why raw POC often misleads, how to read true structure (high-volume nodes, valleys, market memory), and how to combine it with convexity and GEX for precise entries that fit the 10% debit rule. Step-by-step TradingView + FlyOnTheWall.ai walkthrough using today's developing market. Build the skill that makes your pre-trade checklist bulletproof. Presentation: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/85x7ridm1nov6nw99v3d0/Mastering-Volume-Profile-for-0DTE-Entries.pptx?rlkey=tiy7n66rcivsbcyz33j3pmbta&dl=0 Join Fly on the Wall https://flyonthewall.ai/try
Transcribe →How Cheaper Flies Make More Money
May 200:39:58Tap to summarizeMaster the single most important pre-trade rule in 0DTE butterfly trading: never pay more than 10% of the fly width. Coach Ernie explains where the rule comes from, the math behind why lower-debit flies deliver higher percentage returns on your defined risk, and exactly how to scan for and build these asymmetric setups. See real examples of wide vs narrow, expensive vs cheap flies and why this discipline alone separates professional results from random outcomes. Perfect routine reinforcement with today's platform demo. Presentation https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/tlahu0m6qlkrogsgpzaho/10-percent-debit-rule.pptx?rlkey=tiw729gqw4fjiapf8kk0j32xo&dl=0 Join Fly on the Wall https://flyonthewall.ai/try
Transcribe →Gamma Scalping for Retail Traders — Why the Trade Desk Way Will Eat You Alive
Apr 2700:43:36Tap to summarizeCoach Ernie unpacks why traditional gamma scalping — the long-straddle, sell-against-it institutional approach — is structurally hostile to retail traders, and walks through the version that actually works in a retail account: a late-day, out-of-the-money butterfly placed into structural support, sized for asymmetric risk-to-reward. The episode covers the mechanics that make the trade work: how the real-time P&L curve fills the butterfly as premium decays, why low-volatility environments produce steeper gamma earlier in the session, and how the VIX level dictates the size of your daily window of opportunity. Concrete example walked through: a 20-wide fly bought for ~$0.80 (roughly 1:25 R:R), turning a 10-point move off structure into a 3x–8x payoff. Three conditions stacked before entry: (1) lower-volatility regime for accelerated premium decay, (2) late-day timing for maximum gamma steepness, (3) a structural level as a directional backstop. Why a 50% win rate is more than enough when the math is this skewed. Live-tool demonstration to follow in the next episode. About Fly On The Wall Fly On The Wall is a full-service platform built specifically for 0DTE options traders. It's not just a tool — it's a Discord community, a daily livestream and group coaching for Navigator members, Friday coaching calls, and direct access to Coach Ernie's 40+ years of trading experience. Every concept you hear on this show is practiced live, every trading day, with the community. Start your 4-week free trial → https://flyonthewall.ai/try Our goal is to make you Consistently Profitable, become an Independent Trader, and Trade at a Pro-level.
Transcribe →Use GEX to Read Delaer Positioning Like a Pro
Apr 2700:45:59Tap to summarizeNo description available
Transcribe →When To Take Profits—When To Let Theta Cook
Apr 1700:45:48Tap to summarizeTaking profits is harder than putting on the trade. This week Coach lays out the rules—different ones for 0DTE flies and Sigma Drift positions—and how both shift under changing VIX regimes. Plus the early-day vs. late-day playbook that separates the grinders from the gamblers. If you're leaving money on the table or giving it back at the close, this is the episode. Presentation Link https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/32unfk3laiu4gkiwx1jfo/Take_It_Or_Let_It_Cook_S3E027.pptx?rlkey=6isl64dw6ntltcsfz1w0wm6ve&st=9ex8l4pl&dl=0 - Why profit management is harder than entry - 0DTE rules: speed, theta acceleration, gamma risk - Sigma Drift rules: patience, drift, time decay curve - VIX regimes: low / mid / high—how each changes your exits - Early day vs. late day: what works when - Common mistakes: holding too long, cutting too early - Coach's decision tree for managing winners - Q&A Profit management is something Coach walks through live every day on the Navigator livestream inside Fly On The Wall. Platform, Discord, Friday calls, daily group coaching. 4-week trial: https://flyonthewall.ai/try
Transcribe →