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國際時事跟讀 Ep. L178: 日圓重貶，日銀騎虎難下 Yen Slides to 160, BOJ Signals It Is Watching

Highlights 主題摘要

BOJ Governor Ueda told parliament on March 30 that yen movements have a "huge impact" on Japan's economy, signalling growing pressure for faster rate hikes.
The BOJ held rates at 0.75% in March, but oil-driven inflation is pushing household costs up five to seven percent year-on-year, narrowing its room to wait.
Japanese overseas travel in 2024 recovered to just 13 million departures — still a third below pre-pandemic levels — as the weak yen keeps foreign trips out of reach.

For Japan, the currency market has become the fulcrum of economic debate. On March 30, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda told parliament that foreign exchange movements have a "huge impact" on the country's economy and prices — the clearest signal yet that yen weakness is no longer a peripheral concern but a primary driver of monetary policy. The yen briefly touched 160.27 to the dollar on March 28, its weakest since July 2024, when authorities had previously intervened to arrest the currency's slide. Tokyo's Vice Finance Minister Atsushi Mimura warned of growing speculative activity, while Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated the government stood ready to take "bold actions."

日圓匯率問題，已成為日本當前經濟辯論的核心議題。3月30日，日銀行長植田和男在國會表示，外匯市場的波動對日本的經濟與物價走勢有「巨大影響」，這是迄今最直接的信號，顯示日圓疲軟已不再是次要問題，而是貨幣政策的主要考量。日圓在3月28日一度觸及1美元兌160.27日圓，創下2024年7月以來新低，當年當局曾進場干預，壓制日圓跌勢。財務省副大臣三村淳表示對外匯市場投機交易升溫的憂慮，財務大臣片山皋月則聲明政府已準備好採取「大膽行動」。

The structural cause remains a stubbornly wide interest rate differential. After ending its negative interest rate regime in March 2024, the BOJ raised borrowing costs cautiously, taking a gradualist path to 0.75%. But with the US Federal Reserve keeping rates elevated, the gap remains vast. Investors routinely borrow cheaply in yen and deploy capital into higher-yielding assets elsewhere — the carry trade — putting the yen under persistent selling pressure.

日圓長期走軟的結構性根源，在於日本與其他主要經濟體之間長期懸殊的利差。日銀於2024年3月結束負利率政策後，已逐步將利率調升至0.75%，但美國聯準會為壓制通膨而維持高利率，兩者之間的利差依然顯著。投資人持續以低廉成本借入日圓，將資金配置到海外收益率更高的資產，形成所謂的套利交易，持續壓低市場對日圓的需求。

Urgency sharpened in 2026 as surging oil prices, driven by the Middle East conflict, compounded the inflationary effect on import costs. At the March meeting, at least one BOJ board member called for rate hikes "without hesitation." Ueda told parliament the bank would "guide policy appropriately" by scrutinising how currency moves affect its forecasts. Markets now price a two-in-three chance of a hike to 1% as soon as May — the first aggressive tightening cycle Japan has seen in decades.

進入2026年後，局勢明顯更加緊迫。中東衝突帶動油價飆升，進一步放大日圓貶值對進口成本的推升效應。在3月政策會議上，至少一位委員主張，只要經濟情勢未見明顯惡化，就應「毫不猶豫」升息。植田和男在國會答詢時表示，日銀將評估匯率波動對成長與物價預測的影響，「適當引導政策方向」。市場目前預估，日銀最快在5月升息至1%的機率約達三分之二，若成真，將是日本數十年來首次連續緊縮的升息週期。

For ordinary households, the toll is concrete. Overseas travel by Japanese citizens recovered to only 13 million departures in 2024 — still roughly a third below 2019's 20.1 million — as the weak currency renders foreign trips prohibitively expensive. Food and utility bills are climbing five to seven percent year-on-year. A depreciating yen, it turns out, is anything but abstract: it erodes purchasing power with every paycheck and every trip to the supermarket.

對一般家庭而言，日圓貶值的代價早已不是紙上數字。2024年日本出境旅遊人次僅回升至約1,300萬，較2019年的2,010萬仍少了約三分之一，疲軟的日圓讓海外旅行對許多人來說愈來愈難以負擔。食品與電費支出年增幅更達5至7%。日圓持續貶值，說到底就是每個月領薪水、每次去超市採購時，默默縮水的購買力。

Keyword Drills 關鍵字

Gradualist [adjective, describing a slow, step-by-step approach to policy change]: The BOJ's gradualist approach has drawn criticism from market watchers.
Carry trade [noun phrase, borrowing in a low-interest currency to invest in higher-yielding assets elsewhere]: Low rates make the yen a popular carry trade funding currency.
Selling pressure [noun phrase, sustained market demand to sell an asset, driving its price lower]: The yen has been under constant selling pressure for months.
Inflationary [adjective, causing or related to a general rise in prices]: Surging oil costs have had a clear inflationary effect on household bills.
Tightening cycle [noun phrase, a period in which a central bank raises interest rates consecutively to curb inflation]: Markets are bracing for Japan's first tightening cycle in decades.

Reference article:
1. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/boj-watching-fx-movement-factor-affecting-economy-governor-ueda-says-2026-03-30/
2. https://tw.stock.yahoo.com/share/5e3c1e6b-ddb1-3244-9979-1bc5f8c68e22
3. https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/03/economy/japan-declining-yen-shortcake-travel-intl-hnk

國際時事跟讀 Ep. L180: 日圓重貶，日銀騎虎難下 Yen Slides to 160, BOJ Signals It Is Watching