3 Takeaways Episode #233: Former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO James Stavridis Does Not Mince Words

Host: Lynn Thoman
Guest: Admiral James Stavridis
Release Date: January 21, 2025

In this compelling episode of 3 Takeaways, host Lynn Thoman engages in a thought-provoking conversation with Admiral James Stavridis, a retired four-star officer and former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO. With an illustrious military career and extensive experience in global affairs, Admiral Stavridis provides deep insights into contemporary geopolitical challenges, the future of warfare, and strategies for ensuring global safety and security.

1. The Impact of the U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan

[02:58] Admiral James Stavridis:
"It's emboldened our opponents around the world and it has also created skepticism in the minds of our allies."

Admiral Stavridis opens the discussion by reflecting on the United States' withdrawal from Afghanistan, characterizing it as a significant strategic misstep. He draws parallels to the Vietnam War, emphasizing that such withdrawals not only embolden adversaries like Vladimir Putin but also sow doubt among allies about the U.S.'s reliability. Stavridis warns that this perception of weakness could lead to increased aggression from global powers, undermining long-term U.S. interests and alliances.

2. China as the 21st Century's Strategic Challenge

[04:49] Admiral James Stavridis:
"China is the strategic risk for the United States this century."

China emerges as the focal point of Stavridis's analysis of future geopolitical tensions. He outlines the multifaceted nature of China's challenge, spanning technology, economic power, alliance-building, and military capabilities. Stavridis advocates for a balanced strategy that involves confrontation where necessary—such as challenging China's claims in the South China Sea and addressing cyber aggression—while also seeking cooperation in areas like climate change and pandemic preparedness. His vision underscores the necessity of a nuanced approach rather than a binary "carrot or stick" policy.

3. Taiwan's Strategic Significance and Potential Chinese Strategies

[06:25] Lynn Thoman:
"You mentioned Taiwan. What, in your opinion, are some of the likeliest ways that China could attempt to increase influence or even take over Taiwan?"

[06:36] Admiral James Stavridis:
"China could do a blockade or a soft blockade on certain products around Taiwan. China could use cyber very effectively to surreptitiously undermine the economy of Taiwan."

Stavridis delves into the complexities surrounding Taiwan, assessing the likelihood and methods of potential Chinese intervention. He believes that while a full-scale invasion is highly unlikely due to the immense costs involved, China may employ alternative tactics such as blockades, cyberattacks, and soft power initiatives to destabilize Taiwan. He emphasizes the importance of supporting Taiwan's autonomy and democracy, ensuring that its future remains in the hands of its people.

4. Crafting a Comprehensive Strategy to Counter China

[08:25] Admiral James Stavridis:
"The first and most important thing we have to do is step back from the problem, bring very bright people together, and create an actual strategy to contend with the challenge of China."

Stavridis outlines a five-component strategy to effectively address the Chinese challenge:

1. Technology: Prioritizing advancements in artificial intelligence and quantum computing.
2. Diplomacy: Strengthening alliances across various regions, including Asia, Latin America, and the Global South.
3. Military: Maintaining a strong and capable military presence to deter aggression.
4. Cultural and Educational Exchanges: Fostering cooperation and mutual understanding through exchanges.
5. Economics: Strategically managing trade policies and exploring initiatives like a Pacific Free Trade Zone.

He stresses the need for a coordinated and comprehensive approach rather than isolated tactical responses.

5. The Middle East: Tactical Conflicts and Strategic Alliances

[10:42] Admiral James Stavridis:
"We ought to try and bring Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia together."

In discussing the Middle East, Stavridis identifies the region's current instability marked by conflicts involving Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran. He proposes a strategic initiative to foster deeper cooperation between Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. By encouraging diplomatic recognition and collaboration in areas like missile defense, intelligence, and economics, the U.S. can help stabilize the region and create a formidable alliance capable of addressing emerging threats.

6. Maritime Security: Navigating Global Waters Amidst Crises

[12:49] Admiral James Stavridis:
"The biggest challenge in the oceans is environmental. It is the increasing temperatures in the ocean, the acidification of the oceans, the plastics in the oceans."

Stavridis addresses the myriad maritime security challenges, including cyber threats, military tensions in regions like the South China Sea and the Arctic, and significant environmental concerns such as ocean acidification, plastic pollution, and rising sea levels. He highlights the urgent need for a global, cooperative effort to manage these issues, advocating for U.S. leadership in maritime policing and environmental protection to ensure sustainable and secure global waters.

7. The Future of Warfare: Embracing Technology and AI

[16:35] Admiral James Stavridis:
"I think a good place to look is Ukraine. There you see something I think quite remarkable. It's really two wars in one."

Using the Ukraine conflict as a case study, Stavridis illustrates the evolving nature of warfare, where traditional combat coexists with advanced technologies like drones, AI-driven systems, and cyber warfare. He predicts a rapid shift towards high-end technologies in military operations, emphasizing the critical role of artificial intelligence in areas such as logistics, maintenance, and strategic decision-making. Stavridis envisions a future where AI significantly enhances military efficiency and effectiveness, fundamentally altering the dynamics of global conflicts.

8. Greenland's Strategic Importance and Potential Alliances

[20:41] Admiral James Stavridis:
"Greenland is an incredible treasure trove of strategic resources located in some of the most important military hardware and real estate in the world."

Stavridis brings attention to Greenland's burgeoning strategic significance due to its resource wealth and geopolitical position. He reflects on historical contexts, such as the near-purchase of Greenland in 1867, to argue for increased diplomatic and economic engagement with Greenland, especially as it edges closer to independence. By fostering strong partnerships with Greenland through Denmark, the U.S. can secure its interests without resorting to military intervention, which would be globally condemned.

9. Smart Power and Public-Private Partnerships

[23:05] Admiral James Stavridis:
"We need a better modus vivendi for the huge private sector to work with the public sector."

Advocating for smart power, Stavridis emphasizes the importance of leveraging public-private partnerships to address complex global challenges. He highlights the vast potential of the private sector and the necessity for governmental cohesion across various agencies and levels. By improving interagency cooperation and harnessing private sector innovation, the U.S. can effectively tackle issues from technological advancements to environmental sustainability and public health.

10. Final Thoughts and Three Key Takeaways

Before concluding the episode, Admiral Stavridis shares three pivotal takeaways for listeners:

1. Strength of Alliances:
   [25:23]
   "NATO is 32 nations, and they represent 55% of the world's gross domestic product. That network of alliances bodes well for the United States."

2. India's Leadership Potential:
   [25:23]
   "The nation of India, the world's most populous country because it's a democracy, has a charismatic leader who can help shape the global south."

3. The Rise of Women in the 21st Century:
   [25:23]
   "This century is going to be about the rise of women, where women are finally going to absolutely absorb 50% of the workplace... they are going to bring sensibility and intelligence."

Stavridis underscores the enduring power of alliances, the influential role of India in global affairs, and the transformative rise of women in shaping the future workforce and leadership.

Conclusion

Admiral James Stavridis's candid and insightful discussion on 3 Takeaways offers listeners a comprehensive understanding of current geopolitical dynamics and future challenges. From the repercussions of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan to the strategic maneuvers required to address China's rise, and from maritime security to the transformative potential of AI and public-private partnerships, this episode provides valuable perspectives for individuals seeking to grasp the complexities of global security and international relations.

Notable Quotes:

• [02:10] Admiral Stavridis:
  "Winston Churchill said that the further into the future you want to look, the more you have to dive into the past."

• [04:47] Admiral Stavridis:
  "We walked away from 20 years of investment in Afghanistan and walked away from allies, partners and friends on the ground there, and it disheartens them."

• [16:25] Admiral Stavridis:
  "It's not an on and off switch of yeah, let's get rid of all of our carriers, let's build only submarines and use drones, or let's just keep doing what we're doing."

• [22:56] Admiral Stavridis:
  "Indeed." (In response to being a believer in smart power)

This episode serves as an essential guide for anyone interested in understanding the intricate web of modern geopolitics and the strategic imperatives that will shape the 21st century. Admiral Stavridis's expertise and forward-thinking approach provide actionable insights for policymakers, business leaders, and concerned global citizens alike.