Podcast Summary: "The Quiet War: How Countries Fight Without Firing a Shot" (#293)

Podcast: 3 Takeaways™
Host: Lynn Thoman
Guest: Eddie Fishman, Scholar at Columbia University, Author of American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare
Date: March 17, 2026

Overview

In this episode, Lynn Thoman explores the new landscape of international conflict with Eddie Fishman, an expert on economic statecraft. Instead of soldiers and tanks, the battlegrounds are now found in banks, supply chains, and digital infrastructure. Fishman shares vivid examples and actionable insights, focusing on how nations leverage choke points—critical nodes—in global economic systems to exert power and project influence, without a single shot being fired. The conversation highlights the rise of economic warfare, how its tools work, its impact, potential backlashes, and advice for future leadership.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Choke Points: From Geography to Economics

[01:44]

• Definition Shift: Historically, choke points were physical (Strait of Hormuz, Bosphorus); now, they are often economic and digital.
• Example: The US dollar acts as a global choke point: “90% of all foreign exchange transactions have the dollar on one side or the other.” (Eddie Fishman, 01:44)
  • Virtually any transaction worldwide can be influenced by US policy due to dollar centrality.
  • The US can impose sanctions affecting companies and countries globally—even ones not dealing directly with the US.

2. Economic Power vs. Military Force

[02:58]

• Then vs. Now: Traditional sanctions (Iraq, 1990s) required military enforcement (naval blockade).
• Modern Example: US officials used the threat of cutting off access to the US dollar—no warships required.
  • On Iran (2010s): "There wasn't a single naval vessel deployed… that was even more impactful." (Fishman, 03:05)

3. A Few Paragraphs, a Global Blockade

[04:41]

• Memorable Story: New regulatory language from the US Treasury blocked Russia’s oil after the Ukraine invasion, causing a literal traffic jam in the Bosphorus.
  • “In the week after that price cap went into effect... you had this massive queue of thousand-foot-long oil tankers piled up at the Bosphorus.” (Fishman, 05:45)
  • Illustrates the power of regulatory action over military intervention.

4. Creative Use of Sanctions: Carrots and Sticks

[06:37]

• Iran’s Nuclear Program: Instead of cutting buyers off, the US allowed continued oil purchases with conditions:
  • Buyers had to reduce purchases regularly and pay via special escrow accounts tied to humanitarian trade.
  • “It provided both a stick and a carrot and wound up providing substantial leverage to negotiators to get the Iran nuclear deal.” (Fishman, 08:16)
• Deficiency: The US is much better at imposing pressure (“sticks”) than providing incentives (“carrots”). Reference to the Marshall Plan as a rare, strategic use of carrots. (08:41)

5. Russia: Did Deterrence Work?

[09:35]

• Sanctions as Deterrent: Pre-invasion threats did not stop Russia; Putin miscalculated Western resolve.
• Effectiveness: Post-invasion sanctions pushed Russia into stagflation.
  • “The Russian economy has sky high inflation and zero economic growth. They're in the midst of stagflation.” (Fishman, 10:39)
• Impact: Without sanctions, Russia’s military and economy would be “much stronger and much more dangerous.” (Fishman, 11:17)

6. Today’s Primary Economic Warfare Tools

[11:33]

• Dominant Choke Points:
  • US Dollar: Still the strongest lever
  • Advanced AI Chips: >80% made by Nvidia
  • Rare Earth Minerals: 90% processed in China
  • 2025 example: China cuts US access to rare earths, making American factories idle.
• Emerging Threats: US dominance in cloud services (Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Oracle collectively handling 75%+ globally). (12:44)
  • China could weaponize control over manufacturing and supply chains (especially EVs).

7. Economic Warfare vs. Military Force

[13:28]

• Pros: Nonviolent coercion is preferable to war.
• Cons: Can be devastating for targeted nations; requires effective government-private sector collaboration.
  • “It's usually your best option in between just words of condemnation and actually using kinetic force.” (Fishman, 13:43)

8. The Involvement of Private Companies

[14:29]

• Shift: Governments set policy, but private companies (banks, insurers, tech firms) are now on the “front lines.”
  • “It's a different relationship than we're used to... but it’s a really important one because this is not going away anytime soon.” (Fishman, 14:41)

9. The Risks of Overusing Economic Power

[15:25]

• Backlash: Overuse of choke points spurs rivals to find alternatives.
  • Russia and China are building alternatives to SWIFT and seeking to internationalize the RMB.
  • The US investing in domestic resources to reduce its own vulnerability.
  • “It's incumbent upon the United States to use these tools judiciously, to not make them a tool of first resort.” (Fishman, 16:10)
• Alliances Matter: When the US works with allies, risk is shared and mitigated; unilateral moves prompt even allies to hedge against the US. (16:39-18:08)

10. Advice for Future Leaders

[18:20]

• Credibility and Restraint: US power is based on global trust in American stability and fairness.
  • “...They opted in to using US Technologies because of the value they provided, but also the comfort that they wouldn't be frivolously weaponized against them.”
  • Use economic power when necessary, but not frivolously, or risk losing the foundation of US leverage. (Fishman, 18:20)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “90% of all foreign exchange transactions have the dollar on one side or the other.”
  — Eddie Fishman, [01:44]

• “There wasn't a single naval vessel deployed… that was even more impactful.”
  — Eddie Fishman, on Iran oil sanctions, [03:05]

• “In the week after that price cap went into effect... you had this massive queue of thousand-foot-long oil tankers piled up at the Bosphorus.”
  — Eddie Fishman, [05:45]

• “The United States has become very adept at imposing substantial economic pressure... We've become less good, though, at providing economic incentives.”
  — Eddie Fishman, [08:41]

• “The Russian economy has sky high inflation and zero economic growth. They're in the midst of stagflation.”
  — Eddie Fishman, [10:39]

• “It's incumbent upon the United States to use these tools judiciously, to not make them a tool of first resort.”
  — Eddie Fishman, [16:10]

• “Private businesses are the ones implementing these policies. And so it's a different relationship... because this is not going away anytime soon.”
  — Eddie Fishman, [14:41]

Three Takeaways from Eddie Fishman [19:11]

1. We Live in an Age of Economic Warfare

   • “Sanctions, tariffs, export controls—they're now the primary way that countries compete with each other, and this is going to be the case for almost certainly the coming decades.”
     — [19:13]

2. Economic Warfare is Reshaping the Global Economy

   • “This phenomenon is now reshaping the global economy itself... financial system, energy markets, and supply chains are fracturing along geopolitical lines. This is not a choice, it's a reality.”
     — [19:27]

3. Educating Ourselves is Essential

   • “It's important for our democratic discourse for people to feel... they have the requisite knowledge to pipe up and actually weigh in in the democratic process about how the United States is using its economic power around the world.”
     — [20:13]

Structure & Flow

The conversation is clear, informative, and practical, combining vivid anecdotes with broad strategic thinking. Fishman balances caution about the risks of economic warfare with recognition of its necessity and efficacy in a changing world. The tone is accessible yet rigorous, mirroring the podcast’s goal of helping listeners “understand the world in new ways.”

Not to Miss

• [05:45] — The story of how a few paragraphs from Washington jammed the Bosphorus
• [08:16-08:41] — Creative structuring of Iran sanctions as both carrot and stick, and America’s challenge using incentives
• [13:43] — The ethics and strategy behind choosing economic warfare over kinetic force
• [16:10] — Warnings on overusing economic tools, and the global push to de-risk from US dominance

This episode is essential listening for anyone interested in foreign policy, economics, business strategy, or the shifting nature of global power.