Podcast Summary: 3 Takeaways Episode: The U.S. Alone Can’t Compete with China. Here’s What Absolutely Can. (#250)
Host: Lynn Thoman
Release Date: May 20, 2025

Introduction

In this episode of 3 Takeaways, host Lynne Thoman engages with two prominent experts, Kurt Campbell and Rush Doshi, to discuss the growing economic, technological, and military prowess of China relative to the United States. Drawing insights from their co-authored article in Foreign Affairs titled "Underestimating China," the conversation delves into whether the U.S. is underestimating China's capabilities and explores strategic approaches the U.S. can adopt to effectively compete on the global stage.

China’s Economic and Technological Scale

Kurt Campbell opens the discussion by highlighting China's significant advancements across various economic and technological metrics. At [00:12], he states:

"China has already outmatched the United States economically. It boasts twice the manufacturing capacity... now produces more active patents and top cited scientific publications annually."

Rush Doshi elaborates on the importance of scale in national power, comparing historical examples to present-day China:

"China is twice US power generation, 3 times US car production, 11 times US steel production, 20 times US cement production... half of all the world's robot installations occurred in China in 2023." [04:47]

The duo emphasizes that China's extensive manufacturing capabilities not only provide economic advantages but also bolster technological innovation through large-scale production and incremental advancements on the factory floor.

Demographics and Its Impact

The conversation shifts to demographics, where Rush Doshi discusses both the strengths and challenges posed by China's population:

"China has four times the US population, which means there's a large base of talent that they can draw from domestically... However, it's a fast-aging society. In the next 75 years, China's population will drop by half from the number it's in today." [06:35]

Kurt Campbell adds a nuanced perspective on demographic challenges:

"We tend to overestimate and put too much emphasis on a few dynamics... The focus on China as an aging society tends to get more focus and critical consideration than other dynamics..." [07:36]

They acknowledge that while China benefits from a vast pool of talent, its aging population poses long-term demographic challenges. However, advancements in AI and robotics may mitigate the impact of a shrinking workforce.

Military Capabilities Comparison

Kurt Campbell provides a comprehensive comparison of the U.S. and Chinese militaries:

"The US Military remains the gold standard... China has made incredible investments... but their size poses long-term looming challenges to the United States." [09:09]

Key points include:

• Operational Experience: The U.S. military's extensive operational experience over the past four decades gives it a strategic edge.
• Technological Investments: China’s expansion of its navy, missile stockpiles, and hypersonic capabilities represents the fastest military modernization in history.
• Regional Dominance: China's growing military presence in Asia signifies its intent to assert dominance and challenge U.S. supremacy in critical regions.

China’s Grand Strategy and Global Relations

Rush Doshi outlines China's evolving grand strategy aimed at displacing the U.S. from global leadership:

"China has a grand strategy that's evolved over time to displace the US from its order, first at the regional level within the Indo Pacific, and then at the global level." [11:02]

He traces the shifts in China's strategy through key historical events:

1. Cold War Era: Limited cooperation with the U.S. against the Soviet Union.
2. Post-Cold War Shift: Growing perception of the U.S. as the primary adversary following events like the Tiananmen Square massacre.
3. Global Financial Crisis (2008): Perception of a weakening U.S., leading to increased regional assertiveness.
4. Recent Developments: Under Xi Jinping, China seeks to establish global military bases, dominate supply chains, and influence international systems to favor authoritarian governance.

Kurt Campbell further discusses China's alliances with nations like Russia, Iran, and North Korea, emphasizing the strategic threat these partnerships pose to global stability:

"China has allied itself in ways... but this is the birthplace, in many respects of American strategic purpose... a threat to the United States as well." [17:03]

US Strategy: Alliances and Capacity-Centric Statecraft

Responding to the challenges posed by China’s scale and strategy, Rush Doshi advocates for a revamped approach to U.S. alliances:

"Our alliances can't simply be what they've been for a long time... it requires a different approach to how America conducts itself and its alliances." [17:10]

Key strategies discussed include:

• Capacity-Centric Statecraft: Leveraging the collective capabilities of allied nations to counterbalance China's scale.
• Economic and Technological Collaboration: Ensuring U.S. firms can access global markets and compete effectively against Chinese manufacturing dominance.
• Security Partnerships: Examples like the Aukus agreement demonstrate the potential for collaboration in advanced military technologies.

Kurt Campbell underscores the necessity of integrating allies into a unified strategy that pools resources and capabilities:

"China still remains in many critical vectors behind us, but their size pose long term looming challenges to the United States." [09:09]

Three Key Takeaways

As per the podcast’s format, the episode concludes with three essential takeaways:

1. Do Not Underestimate China’s Scale:
   Kurt Campbell emphasizes the critical importance of recognizing China's comprehensive scale across economic, technological, and military dimensions.
   "The most important argument here is not to underestimate China in this highly dynamic period." [19:32]

2. Scale Matters in Great Power Dynamics:
   Rush Doshi highlights that scale is a fundamental factor in the rise and fall of great powers. He asserts that while the U.S. may lack the individual scale China possesses, leveraging alliances can create a collective scale that surpasses China's capabilities.
   "China has scale right now relative to the United States... The US can find scale. It has a great repository of scale in its allies." [19:46]

3. Strategic Alliances are Essential for U.S. Competitiveness:
   The collaboration with allies is pivotal for the U.S. to maintain and enhance its global standing. This involves reimagining traditional alliances and fostering deeper economic and military integrations to counterbalance China's expansive reach.
   "If we're able to pull it off, it'll give us the ability to maintain a system that has essentially brought prosperity to Americans, to our allies and to the world." [17:10]

Conclusion

This episode of 3 Takeaways provides a comprehensive analysis of the geopolitical landscape shaped by China's rapid rise. Through the expert insights of Kurt Campbell and Rush Doshi, the discussion underscores the multifaceted nature of China's growth and the imperative for the U.S. to adopt a strategic, alliance-driven approach to effectively compete on the global stage. The concluding takeaways serve as a strategic guide for understanding and addressing the challenges posed by China's scale and ambitions.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

• Kurt Campbell [00:12]:
  "China has already outmatched the United States economically. It boasts twice the manufacturing capacity... now produces more active patents and top cited scientific publications annually."

• Rush Doshi [04:47]:
  "China is twice US power generation, 3 times US car production, 11 times US steel production, 20 times US cement production... half of all the world's robot installations occurred in China in 2023."

• Rush Doshi [06:35]:
  "China has four times the US population, which means there's a large base of talent that they can draw from domestically... However, it's a fast-aging society."

• Kurt Campbell [09:09]:
  "The US Military remains the gold standard... China has made incredible investments... but their size poses long term looming challenges to the United States."

• Rush Doshi [11:02]:
  "China has a grand strategy that's evolved over time to displace the US from its order... first at the regional level within the Indo Pacific, and then at the global level."

• Rush Doshi [17:10]:
  "Our alliances can't simply be what they've been for a long time... it requires a different approach to how America conducts itself and its alliances."

• Kurt Campbell [19:32]:
  "The most important argument here is not to underestimate China in this highly dynamic period."

• Rush Doshi [19:46]:
  "China has scale right now relative to the United States... The US can find scale. It has a great repository of scale in its allies."

• Rush Doshi [20:36]:
  Summarizing the key takeaways.

This detailed summary encapsulates the essential discussions and insights from episode #250 of 3 Takeaways, providing listeners and non-listeners alike with a comprehensive understanding of the strategic imperatives in U.S.-China relations.