Podcast Summary: "What Putin Really Wants — with Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul"
3 Takeaways with Lynn Thoman | Episode #272 | October 21, 2025
Episode Overview
This episode features Michael McFaul, former U.S. Ambassador to Russia, Stanford professor, and noted scholar of democracy and autocracy. Lynn Thoman explores McFaul's unique perspective on Vladimir Putin’s motives, worldview, and Russia’s war in Ukraine. Drawing from decades of experience and direct interactions with Putin, McFaul discusses how the Russian president has evolved, the ideological underpinnings driving his regime, and the wider implications for global security—including Taiwan and global autocratic trends. The conversation culminates in three powerful takeaways for listeners about democracy, authoritarianism, and the global balance of power.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
Putin’s Evolution Over Time
- From Accidental President to Assertive Autocrat
- Putin began his presidency as a "pro-market" and "pro-Western" leader, handpicked by Yeltsin, but he was always anti-democratic.
- Quote (Michael McFaul):
"He shared Yeltsin's pro market views. He shared Yeltsin's pro Western views. But...he was always anti democratic and from the very beginning began to roll back democratic institutions in Russia..." (03:12)
- Over the years, Putin’s stance shifted to greater state control over the market and anti-Western paranoia, especially after democratic movements in Ukraine (Orange Revolution, 2004; Euromaidan, 2014) and Russia’s own election protests (2011).
Putin's Worldview and Ideology
- Autocrats vs. Democrats Paradigm
- Putin views global politics as a struggle between autocratic and democratic systems—the "decadent liberal Western order" against Russian "conservative Christian values."
- Quote (McFaul):
"He sees the world as divided between autocrats and democrats, just like I do...He thinks we're out to get him. He thinks the west is out to get him to undermine his government..." (04:14–05:05)
- Evolution Toward Conservatism
- Putin’s increasing religious conservative stance views Western individualism and social liberalism as existential threats to Russian society.
- Quote:
"As he's gotten older, he's become more religious, he's become more conservative...he's very conservative [on] sexual orientation issues...He believes in collective ideas and everybody serves the nation, serves the state..." (05:22–06:03)
Geographic Ambitions and Imperial Restoration
- Sphere of Influence, Not USSR Revival
- Putin seeks to expand the Russian Empire, not directly restore the USSR, based on a belief that Russia deserves a dominant "sphere of influence."
- Quote:
"I don't think he's trying to recreate the Soviet Union. I do think he is trying to expand the Russian Empire...every great power deserves its own sphere, sphere of influence." (06:23–07:02)
- Motivations: Territorial, Ideological, and Personal Power
- Putin’s goals blend conquest (e.g., illegal annexation in Ukraine), ideological struggle, and personal power preservation.
- Quote:
"First, territorial because he wants to expand the empire...Second, it is ideological...Third, it's about personal power, too." (07:25–08:10)
The Ukraine War in Context
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Ukraine’s Nuclear Disarmament: A Missed Hedge
- McFaul calls out Western failure to backstop guarantees from the 1994 Budapest Memorandum and suggests that early, robust military aid—not necessarily nukes—might have deterred Russia’s aggression.
- Quote:
"We should have had a hedge...had we given Ukraine the weapons that we're giving them today, had we given them those weapons in the 1990s...that could have prevented the first war in 2014 and 2022." (09:13–10:03)
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Lessons for Global Actors: Taiwan and Iran
- Taiwan closely tracks Ukraine’s fight, seeing their fortunes as linked; Russian reluctance to back Iran in recent conflicts has sparked debate on Moscow’s reliability as an ally.
- Quote:
"In Taiwan...they understand that Ukraine's fate impacts their fate...If Ukraine loses...that would embolden Xi Jinping." (10:30–11:19)
"There is inside Iran, there's a real debate about whether Russia is a very reliable ally." (11:57–12:25)
Toll of the War and Russian Society
- Internal Costs
- The war has led to possibly up to a million Russian military casualties, economic isolation, and a bleak trajectory for Russia’s integration with the West.
- Quote:
"Because of sanctions, the economy is functioning, but it's not as functioning as well as it could be. The isolation...will have long term negative effects..." (12:34–13:14)
- Regime Stability and Succession Uncertainty
- Putin’s regime is highly personalistic and more autocratic than the late Soviet Union. Predicting its collapse is difficult; when authoritarian regimes fall, it often happens suddenly and chaotically.
- Quote:
"It's a very personalistic regime that I don't think has any leaders in the wings that can take over for Putin and to keep this thing going. And so when that moment comes, I think it'll be a pretty tumultuous period." (13:44–14:47)
Global Ripple Effects: China and the Ukraine Factor
- Caution for Beijing over Taiwan
- China's military and academic communities observe Russia's struggles and the heavy costs of coercive war, making them more cautious about a Taiwan invasion.
- Quote:
"I get the sense that it's making them more cautious about how confident they should be should they launch a full scale invasion of Taiwan." (15:56–16:15)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- On Putin’s Changed Mindset:
"I met him actually the first time in 1991...and I would say broadly, there were three big ideas, two of which have changed." (01:43–03:12)
- On Western Individualism and Putin’s Conservatism:
"Individualism, That is a Western idea. He's against that..." (05:22–06:03)
- On Ukraine and Global Security:
"If Ukraine loses, and in particular if we let them lose...people in Taiwan are very worried that that would embolden Xi Jinping." (10:30–11:19)
- On Regime Change in Russia:
"Sometimes things go really fast...within weeks and months, the czarist regime collapsed. I don't think that'll happen, but...how unpredictable these kinds of regimes are." (14:25–15:32)
- On Democracy's Global Challenge:
"Tragically, in the 21st century, we did not consolidate democracy all over the world. And we have entered a new era of great power competition between autocrats and Democrats..." (16:38–17:03)
Timestamps for Key Segments
- Putin’s Early Years & Evolution: 01:43–04:11
- Worldview and Ideological Struggle: 04:14–05:14
- Conservative Values and Cultural Clash: 05:22–06:15
- Restoration of Russian Sphere of Influence: 06:15–07:13
- Mix of Motivations (Territory, Ideology, Power): 07:13–08:51
- Ukraine, Nuclear Weapons, and Security Guarantees: 08:51–10:21
- Global Implications (Taiwan, Iran): 10:21–12:30
- Russia’s Costs and Reversal of Trajectory: 12:30–13:32
- Regime Stability and Succession Risks: 13:32–15:50
- China’s Calculus on Taiwan: 15:50–16:32
- Three Takeaways: 16:32–18:42
The Three Takeaways (Michael McFaul)
- The World Is Now Divided Between Autocrats and Democracies
- "We have entered a new era of great power competition between autocrats and Democrats..." (16:38)
- U.S. Democracy and Global Democratic Leadership Are in Question
- Both major U.S. parties should protect democratic rules; support for democracy abroad is less assured than before. (17:10)
- Democracy Is Still the Side to Bet On
- Democracies enjoy more collective military and economic strength, and their values are more widely embraced.
- Quote:
"I'm cautiously optimistic that democracy as it prevailed in the 20th century, will prevail again in the 21st century." (18:19)
Tone & Final Impression
The conversation is thoughtful, well-grounded, and candid, often blending urgency about democracy’s plight with optimism in its enduring appeal and strength. McFaul’s direct experience makes his analysis of Putin, Russia, and global affairs rich and accessible, providing hard-earned lessons for policymakers and the public alike.