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- [00:00]
Ruby Jones
Donald Trump said what he wanted for his 80th birthday was World peace. Peace in the Middle East.
- [00:06]
Interviewer/Reporter
What do you wish yourself for your birthday?
- [00:08]
Donald Trump
For my birthday. Well, I'll go a step bigger. Peace for the world. Okay. Peace for the world. Middle East. Yes. Peace for the whole world. Yeah.
- [00:17]
Ruby Jones
And now, alongside the UFC spectacle on the White House lawn, he appears to have given himself the headline he wanted a so called peace deal with Iran. Or more accurately, a 60 day pause while negotiations continue. I'm Ruby Jones and You're listening to 7am today. Director of the Australia Institute's international and security affairs program, Dr. Emma Shortas on Trump's latest end of the war announcement and what could derail it. It's Tuesday, June 16th.
- [00:59]
Donald Trump
We just made a great settlement of the war with Iran and we're going to be subject to finalization of documents. We should get done over the next few days.
- [01:11]
Ruby Jones
So, Emma, could we begin with what Donald Trump is claiming right now? He says that there's a peace deal. He's saying, let the oil flow. The Strait of Hormuz is supposed to be reopening. Were being told that this is a breakthrough. So what is it that's actually happened?
- [01:28]
Dr. Emma Shortas
Well, I think this is a very familiar place for us to be, Ruby. It's something we've seen repeat itself over the last several months, where Trump says we're close to a deal or even announces a deal.
- [01:39]
Interviewer/Reporter
US President Donald Trump tonight insists a deal to end the Iran war is close. It's the 39th time he's made that claim.
- [01:47]
Dr. Emma Shortas
And then it turns out that we have very little detail about said deal. And as that detail is revealed, it becomes clear either that no progress has been made, that there are contradictions coming from the Trump administration or Iran and the whole thing falls apart. Now, that won't necessarily happen in exactly that way again this time, but certainly we don't have detail and contradictions are already emerging. So Trump is making these big claims, but there's not a lot yet, at least to back them up.
- [02:18]
Ruby Jones
Okay, so a 60 day ceasefire extension seems to be what's on the table. What does that involve?
- [02:25]
Dr. Emma Shortas
Sure. So look, as far as we know, there is an extension of this ceasefire, but it's important to note that, you know, even using the word ceasefire in this context, I think we have to be careful with, because of course the conflict has continued throughout multiple so called ceasefires. But so far as we know, there is this extension of the ceasefire. There is also the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz Although Iranian state media is reporting that that will happen under Iranian arrangements, whatever that might mean. And there's also a note that there hasn't been agreement on critical issues of nuclear enrichment, that that will be negotiated over the next 60 days. So again, there's not a whole lot of detail that we have, and I don't think we should have heaps of confidence in the detail that has emerged so far. So the deal is supposed to be signed in Geneva on Friday, but who knows what can happen between now and then.
- [03:20]
Ruby Jones
And so what do you make of the timing of Trump's announcement?
- [03:24]
Dr. Emma Shortas
I think the timing is very interesting. So this deal was announced on the same day as Trump's birthday and on the same day as his big UFC Freedom250 event.
- [03:37]
Ruby Jones
Welcome to UFC Freedom250. Here is the President of the United States of America, Donald J. Trump.
- [03:46]
Dr. Emma Shortas
So I actually suspect that, that this is, as is normal with Trump, as ridiculous as it seems, that this was timed to give Trump clear air before this big UFC event, which is meant as a demonstration of his cultural and political dominance. You know, it's literally being held on the South Lawn of the White House. And so I think the timing in that sense we should be fairly skeptical of. And I think it's entirely possible as well that the Iranian regime has given him this in order to extract further concessions.
- [04:20]
Ruby Jones
Okay, and so as you say, there's still a lot that we don't know, including whether or not bombs will actually stop falling. But when you look at the details of the negotiations so far, does this seem more like a victory for Iran or for the us?
- [04:35]
Dr. Emma Shortas
Look, I think certainly on balance, Iran has managed to extract a significant amount of concessions from the United States. Everything we know about this deal so far suggests that it is significantly worse for the United States than the Obama era JCPOA deal. And that's true, I think, of the nuclear issue. Iran will reaffirm its commitment to non proliferation, which already exists. But any detail around that has been handballed off into a 60 day negotiating process. And again, I think we should be very sceptical that anything of any substance or any real detail could be negotiated within that period. But it's also true in other areas. So for example, Iranian state media is reporting in their version of this deal that it includes $300 billion in effectively reparations payments for Iran, you know, to pay for reconstruction, which is significantly more money than came with the Obama era deal. And that's not even counting what this war has actually cost the United States. And also around the Strait of Hormuz. You know, there's no indication really, that materially the strait is open. And again, it says in this, in what we know about this deal that this will happen under Iranian arrangements. So the Iranian regime knows that they can maintain effective control of the strait and have enormous impact on the global economy. So in that sense, you know, I think we have to ask, as we've needed to ask from the very start of this illegal war, what was the point? What was the point of all this? And I don't think we can answer that.
- [06:21]
Ruby Jones
Still to come, could Israel derail any chance of success? Emma, we're still waiting for the details of what this deal means, but how is Israel responding, given how much leverage Iran appears be holding here?
- [06:42]
Dr. Emma Shortas
There hasn't been an official response from the Israeli government, but we already know that Lebanon is a significant issue in this deal. It has been, of course, for a very long time. The Iranian regime has insisted that Lebanon is included in the ceasefire agreement. The Trump administration appears to agree. But history suggests, recent history suggests that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not agree with that. You know, he is under significant pressure in Israel to maintain the war on Lebanon, particularly from the far right in Israel, where, you know, unnamed official figures have said that they want to do in Lebanon what they've done in Gaza. And that hasn't gone away. Trump has been doing some performative criticism of Netanyahu, leaking that performative criticism to Axios.
- [07:36]
Interviewer/Reporter
In particular, asked him about the Israeli strikes earlier today against Hezbollah in the Lebanese capital of Beirut. He tells me he spoke on the phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, asking him, what the f are you doing? He told the prime minister not to conduct additional strikes against Hezbollah so that it doesn't.
- [07:54]
Dr. Emma Shortas
But substantively, that relationship between the United States and Israel remains the same. And the potential for Netanyahu to be a wrecker and for Trump to let him, I think is, is still very real.
- [08:07]
Ruby Jones
Yeah, bombs were falling on Beirut as Trump was announcing this deal. So what does that say to you about how lim Ltd. The US's control is over whether or not this deal actually survives?
- [08:19]
Dr. Emma Shortas
Look, I think it's worth saying that the United States can control this. You know, if the United States was really committed to stopping the Israeli government from attacking Lebanon, then it could do that. But it has so far at least chosen not to. You know, I think that Lebanon for Trump is a side issue. You know, he wants it to go away. He wants to be able to ignore it and move on to Other things. So it's important to say that Trump could exert that control if he wanted to. And he's clearly getting frustrated with Netanyahu, but not enough to do anything material about it. And as you said, the Israeli armed forces were bombing Lebanon in the lead up to this announcement. Iran and the United States reportedly scrambled to keep the deal intact despite that. And look, unfortunately, I think we're more likely than not to see that just keep happening, as it is clear that Netanyahu at least has decided that it is in his interests to continue these attacks on Lebanon.
- [09:18]
Ruby Jones
Okay, so what do you think is likely then to happen during these 60 days of negotiations? What's actually going to be hashed out realistically in that time?
- [09:27]
Dr. Emma Shortas
Look, I think that's very difficult to predict, of course, Ruby, because there are so many moving parts and because, you know, as we know, the President himself is so volatile. You know, we're not. We're not dealing with good faith actors on any of the sides involved in this conflict. And, you know, they're all pursuing their own interests. They're all often brazenly lying. And so predicting how that will all fall out is very difficult. But, you know, if I had to predict, I would say that the most likely scenario will be a repeat of what we've seen before, that the United States comes in with hardline requirements around Iranian nuclear enrichment that the regime has made clear it will not and cannot agree to. Trump will get frustrated. He'll threaten to drop more bombs. He may well drop more bombs, you know, or he may well shift the goalposts. It's also possible that with this deal, he's indicating a willingness to make this go away and to just attempt to spin it as a victory for himself and to divert our attention elsewhere. You know, unfortunately, there are very credible reports that Trump and figures in the Trump administration are interested in going after Cuba in order to give the President an easy victory and another distraction from what is happening in Iran.
- [10:44]
Donald Trump
I do believe I'll be the honor of having the honor of taking Cuba. That'd be good. That's a big honor. Taking Cuba. Taking Cuba in some form. Yeah, taking Cuba. I mean, whether I free it. Take it.
- [10:58]
Dr. Emma Shortas
You know, unfortunately, it is just true that so much of this is about managing the President's feelings.
- [11:07]
Ruby Jones
And in Australia, this is being treated as a kind of welcome de escalation. But what do you think that says about how much risk Australia inherits from decisions that are made far beyond our sphere of control?
- [11:22]
Dr. Emma Shortas
Look, I think what this war has demonstrated is just how much the rest of the world, you know, is subject to the president's whims. You know, this conflict that he started, that he chose to start has had enormous impacts on the region, of course, and the people who live in the region. You know, there has been so much loss of life and that catastrophe has spread out into the world, you know, to the point where it's had a dramatic effect on the Australian budget, it's having a dramatic effect on Australian cost of living issues, on Australian communities. You know, a quarter of a million people in Australia are of Lebanese descent. You know, this is having an enormous impact on communities across the world. And so, of course, any de escalation is welcome and should be welcomed by the government. But at the same time, you know, this government is doubling down on its alliance with the Trump administration. So it's exposing those kinds of contradictions as well. Contradictions that aren't limited to Australia, but exist across, especially democracies, you know, and democracies that like to talk about the value and the importance of the international rules based order, even in the face of Trump's assault on that order.
- [12:35]
Ruby Jones
Well, Emma, thank you so much for talking with me.
- [12:37]
Dr. Emma Shortas
Pleasure. Thank you, Ruby.
- [12:53]
Ruby Jones
Also in the news, Pauline Hanson has taken the lead as preferred prime minister. In the latest Resolve poll, 33% of voters nominated Hanson as their top choice for Prime Minister, four points ahead of Anthony Albanese and 17 points ahead of Angus Taylor, who is now polling worse than his predecessor, Susan Lee. One nation is also ahead in the primary vote, leading 29% to Labor's 28% and the Coalition's 20%. And Anthony Albanese says an announcement will be made soon about the future of the fuel excise tax cut. The cut, which was introduced to offset the oil shock created by the Iran war, is set to expire at the end of this month. The prime minister says the government will make its assessment in the coming days. Experts warn even if the strait is reopened, it'll take a while for oil prices to return to normal. I'm Ruby Jones. This is 7:00am thanks for listening.