Loading summary
Transcript36 lines
- [00:02]
Donald Trump
We hit him hard yesterday, and we're going to hit him again hard today. In case you miss, in case you don't turn on your television set, Donald
- [00:11]
Daniel James
Trump is right now following through on that threat, unleashing another round of strikes on Iran.
- [00:23]
Donald Trump
As we come on the air tonight, the US Is again striking targets in Iran.
- [00:27]
Daniel James
You know, there are a number of areas where explosions have been heard across Iran. U.S. central Command, we have three locations
- [00:35]
Steve Clemens
across the Iranian map territory right now that have air defense activities and sounds of explosions, at least in one of those places.
- [00:46]
Daniel James
Trump says he wants a peace deal, but in the past 24 hours, the war has escalated again. Iran and the US have traded strikes, and one of the most important oil routes in the world remains severely restricted. The ceasefire is still supposed to exist, as so is the promise of an imminent peace deal. But the closer Trump says he is to ending the war, the harder it is to tell who's actually in control of it.
- [01:11]
Donald Trump
We were really close to a deal, but they keep tapping us along, they keep playing us for suckers because you know what? They dealt with some very stupid presidents, I have to say.
- [01:21]
Daniel James
I'm Daniel James, and you're listening to 7am today, editor large of the National Interest, Steve Clements on Trump's war with Iran and the fragile push for a deal and why Benjamin Netanyahu may still be the person most capable of blowing it all up. It's Thursday, June 11th. Steve, let's start with where we are at right now. We're more than 100 days into Trump and Netanyahu's war with Iran. The White House says the war is over, there's a ceasefire and a deal is close. But as we speak, Trump is making good in his threat to strike Iran hard again. Iran has been striking US Assets, Israel has been striking Lebanon, and the Strait of Hormuz is ostensibly closed. So how would you describe how things are going?
- [02:13]
Steve Clemens
Things are not going well for the United States, which is trying to navigate a situation in which Iran is trying to tell the world that attacking it is hard, that forcing it to give up control of the Strait of Hormuz or many of its core assets to have its leadership wiped out. It's trying to send the message, don't mess with us so casually, and it's largely succeeding in that. At the same time, America's partner in this, Israel, which Donald Trump keeps saying that he's, you know, holds all the cards and Netanyahu will do everything he tells him to do, is clearly not that compliant, and that Israel continues to pursue its own parochial interests. Regardless of what Trump is doing, there is some respect there, but particularly with regards to gazifying the southern part of Lebanon, which its Defense minister, Israel Katz has explicitly said they're doing. They're wiping out all the homes on the border and they're going to follow the lessons of Gaza in doing what they're doing. So they. That is something that Iran has decided. That agenda matters to them. Whether they really care or not is another question. But both sides are continuing to throw pieces into this equation that Donald Trump is frustrated with. Cuz he just wants a deal and he wants America out and he wants to have a new equilibrium that's stable. The Strait of Hormuz there and energy and fertilizer and everything running again. And right now it's just messy and wobbly and likely to stay that way for a while.
- [03:50]
Daniel James
Yeah. Enter Pete Hexis, who has said that the US Is more than willing to negotiate with bombs.
- [03:55]
Steve Clemens
If we need to negotiate with bombs, we'll negotiate with bombs.
- [03:59]
Daniel James
So do you think that's the strategy behind these latest attacks?
- [04:02]
Steve Clemens
I mean, in a way it's sort of a fact that every time you've got two warring parties with absolutely no trust is that they think that you've got to really muscle up and show very intense power, no weakness, as a way to maximize whatever gains you're going to get after a negotiated end and a negotiated change. But it shows the fact that America, which was, you know, a lot of, even Trump supporters, they continue to support him, is based. But a lot of America was very surprised by this because Donald Trump was saying he would never get into this kind of war. You know, this is beginning to feel like to people it could slip into another war with no end. And that's the kind of thing, as you see consumer prices. I mean, even Donald Trump recently said, hey, he loves inflation.
- [04:48]
Donald Trump
Sir.
- [04:49]
Steve Clemens
Mr. President, about the latest inflation number which came out this morning, could that be a negative?
- [04:54]
Donald Trump
I love it. The numbers look right. You know what I really love? I love the inflation. You know why?
- [04:58]
Steve Clemens
Well, the American public does not love inflation. Kitchen table economics are under a lot of stress right now. And a lot of Republicans running in the midterm elections in November are very, very frustrated and worried about what they're facing from the electorate, even in very red parts of the country, because Americans do not like this war.
- [05:22]
Daniel James
And so this is all happening in the midst of a so called ceasefire, a word which seems to have lost all meaning. Steve, is the ceasefire actually restraining anything or any of these parties at the moment.
- [05:35]
Steve Clemens
Well, look, I guess the good news is that we're not in all out war. What you're seeing, I wouldn't call them polite strikes, but they're not nasty strikes. You don't see Donald Trump wiping out Iranian civilization, which is what he promised to do on one occasion. All of that would be very bad. And the world is sort of holding its breath to what degree of instability and wobbliness this can have. And so the ceasefire, as you pointed out, is kind of a fake one. But people have not completely and entirely left the negotiating table, although they pretend to. But there's still folks talking and whatnot. And look, everybody knows at the end of the day that significant parts of the world are screwed and one side is waiting for the other to blink. And right now we need both sides to blink.
- [06:27]
Daniel James
I mean, every day or every few days, it seems that Trump says that a peace deal is close. We hear that an agreement is within reach. The President keeps telling us. What's your take on how realistic a deal is at this point?
- [06:40]
Steve Clemens
Well, look, we hear from, I've heard at various points in this process from very credible sources that we were very close. We were so close to a real deal that Lindsey Graham, a US Senator from South Carolina, Senator Roger Wicker, you know, others came out blasting the potential deal that Trump had. And that it was at that moment that Trump said, oh, maybe we shouldn't rush so quickly. We were really close to a real deal to end this. And then what happens is that Donald Trump's political legs from the Republicans he liked began criticizing what they were putting together and that ran in. That's why this is such an impossible situation. It's not just Iran and the United States. It's Iran, it's Israel, it's Lebanon, it's Hezbollah, and it's Lindsey Graham and other people who are at various points rejecting part of this. It's impossible to know what's close or not because every time one gets close, someone tries to take action to pull the legs out from underneath the deal
- [07:49]
Daniel James
coming. Trump says he still calls the shots, but has he lost control of the conflict? Steve, if we return to the dynamic between Israel and the US at the moment, Trump was recently quoted as saying, I call the shots. He doesn't call the shots. He meaning Benjamin Netanyahu. But if Trump calls a shot, why is Israel still carrying out strikes that risk blowing up a deal? Has Trump lost control of this conflict?
- [08:25]
Steve Clemens
The United States does not have total control of Israel, ever. Israel is a sovereign country. It has its interests, it has tremendous influence over Israel, but not definitive total influence. Israel has an election coming up in October. And right now, those that see this as the moment to clear all decks of Israel's threats in the region, it sees this moment as a unique moment where establishing security lines in Lebanon, moving its agenda, depopulating certain areas that it once depopulated, sending a shiver through the spines of its enemies. It doesn't see these moments coming up so often. And it is very hell bent that it's going to do that. And it's got a cabinet that largely wants to do even more than Benjamin Netanyahu does. Netanyahu, and this is not the, you know, the one that's fully, as you know, geared around depopulating Gaza and some others, as many of his cabinet colleagues are. So in this moment, it's hard politically for Israel to turn off the off switch. The United States can turn off Israel's off switch if it sends a signal we're no longer giving you the weapons to do what you're doing. And until Donald Trump gets there, and I don't think he will, then Netanyahu will play his cards that he thinks that Donald Trump cannot completely reject him.
- [09:46]
Daniel James
Do you think we can say at this point, Steve, that Trump and Netanyahu actually are pursuing the same objective when it comes to this conflict war?
- [09:55]
Steve Clemens
They're not pursuing the same objective. I think Donald Trump, he thought he could get easy regime change in a week. He thought he could change the leader and put Ahmadinejad in, and that would be his answer to how we've approached incremental political change in Venezuela, that he could get an oil deal done with Iran and then largely stabilize, make everybody happy, get partial regime transition, but not regime change. And that would have been fine with him. So he hasn't achieved that. Israel wants to neutralize Iran as a threat and become the reigning superpower of the broader Middle East. Israel trying to become that regional, uncontested superpower is something Donald Trump is not aligned with. And right now, Trump is facing an electoral situation himself with his party and looking like, you know, they're going to get slammed because in part because of this decision to take this step towards a very hot conflict with Iran.
- [10:51]
Daniel James
And there's been reports that Trump has actually warned Netanyahu, he said that, but
- [10:56]
Donald Trump
he was hit, he hit back, and now they've called it quits. So they're going to just leave each other alone for another week or something.
- [11:05]
Daniel James
Does that warning tell us Trump is worried Israel could derail the entire process.
- [11:10]
Steve Clemens
I think Trump doesn't like his power challenged particularly overtly and publicly by anyone. Doesn't matter if you're Fox News or Benjamin Netanyahu. And so Trump's willing to tolerate a lot of stuff if it's behind the scenes, but he wants complete obsequiousness and wants his everyone to obey. And when Netanyahu clearly doesn't obey, that really sets Trump off there. So you're hearing Trump, who often says many things publicly, doesn't follow through with them all, and can also flip flop just expressing his rage and anger at Netanyahu. But it can change in 24 hours.
- [11:46]
Daniel James
And finally, Steve, with the cost of the Iran war finally beginning to bite in the US with headline inflation hitting a three year high at 4.2%, despite the president saying, as you reminded us, that he loves inflation, how much of a bind is he in politically here and what does that mean for the future of this conflict?
- [12:04]
Steve Clemens
I think he's in a real bind. I think that the numbers look so bad for him among political independents. Remember, it's not Republicans or Democrats that actually prevail in American elections. It's the independents that largely tilt one way or the other. And right now, he's lost independence so substantially who were with him before because they were frustrated with Biden, they were concerned with Biden, but a lot of independents went and gave him that tilt. Donald Trump can always get 30% of the American public, but 30% doesn't get you very far in American politics if you don't bring others along with you. And right now, of course, he doesn't have the Democrats who are aligned almost, you know, unbelievably against this war. But, you know, I just to give him credit, he still has, I think, about 75% support from his own base, from Republicans for this conflict, one that he had kind of articulated many, many times that he wouldn't go after. They, they seem not to care, but a lot of the rest of the country does. And they worry about the impacts that another forever war is going to have on their economic choices. On investment in America, this doesn't feel like make America great again, kind of positive. And in the meanwhile, not only that, but you've got a wobbly world where many of our allies, we didn't consult with a lot of European allies, allies in the Asia Pacific saying how in the world did we get into this? And Donald Trump thinking that he can just snap his fingers and have people line up to be part of America's security barrage against Iran and keeping the Strait of Hormuz open and others putting themselves at risk when he never consulted with them at all. This was a surprise for the world. I think in that situation he's facing some real blowback both internationally and in the American elections coming up.
- [13:52]
Daniel James
Steve, thank you so much for your time.
- [13:54]
Steve Clemens
My pleasure. Thank you.
- [14:10]
Daniel James
Tomorrow at 7am, British journalist and host of the News Agents, Emily Maitlis on the Belfast riots, how anti migration sentiment reached boiling point with the help of far right agitators, politicians and Elon Musk.
- [14:24]
Emily Maitlis
Look, the question you're asking is how much of a factor does the richest man in the world with all his Nazi friends getting involved in what is essentially a local crime play right now in British politics or indeed in world politics? This is what happens when all the wealth in the world is going into trying to manipulate democracies and politics and says, this is disgusting, this is an invasion. Go and go and do what you need to do. And when you start using words like invasion and you have the wealth to throw this stuff around, then, yes, what you're doing is you're inciting people out onto the street.
- [15:09]
Daniel James
That'll be in your feed first thing tomorrow morning. I'm Daniel James. Thanks for listening.