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- [00:01]
A
We have breaking news for us now, and in fact, we will go to Jacinta Allen at the moment. After a chaotic 24 hours of backroom plotting and mounting pressure, the Victorian Premier resigned. I have made the difficult decision to step aside as leader of the Victorian State Parliamentary Labor Party and as Premier of Victoria. Her replacement and former deputy leader Ben Carroll now just has four months to turn Labor's fortunes around in what's shaping up to be the most unpredictable election the state has ever seen. I am not Daniel Andrews. I am not Jacinta Allan. I will do things differently because different times require a new approach. Polls show an unprecedented three party contest with voters split almost equally between the unpopular labor government, an opposition ridden by scandal and a rising one nation. I saw off two Liberal leaders, now I expect my successor will see off the third. And if they don't, one nation certainly will. I'm Ruby Jones and you're listening to 7am today ABC Melbourne mornings host Raf Epstein on what Labor's change of leader means for an already chaotic election race and whether Australia's most progressive state could turn orange. It's Wednesday, July 29th. So, Raf. On Monday, the Victorian Premier, Jacinta Allen, was digging her heels in. Yesterday she handed in her resignation. Walk me through how this played out.
- [01:50]
B
This played out. I have to say this played out exactly as the plotters intended. There's been pressure building on Jacinta Allen's leadership for a number of months. There have been people encouraging Ben Carroll to do something. Last week, though, they bunkered down together. They actually all went to Ballarat together. All the Labor MPs in the Victorian Parliament and the police minister whose name is Anthony Carbines, he was like, this isn't working and you're driving the government off a cliff. What it meant was that when he then faced the cameras the next day, he then was asked, well, is this true? Did it happen? He didn't deny it, he just did the, oh, well, you know, I don't talk about internal matters.
- [02:26]
A
Do you think the Premier should be doing more?
- [02:29]
B
Well, you're referring to the caucus conference and I don't comment on caucus meetings. That is really what sparked this. And then actually went to her on Monday morning, a delegation of ministers and factional MPs and said, look, you've lost the room, you've lost caucus. She said, ah, ah, nah, you're not doing this. She has been telegraphing for ages, publicly and privately, if you do this, I will effectively burn the house down. If you come for me. She writes to The State Secretary, she says, I want you to prepare all the members. We're going to have a leadership ballot. The plotters were always confident that she would eventually fold. But the Premier's backers cannot begin to convey the anger. They are furious with the plotters. I had one MP almost crying, saying she deserves the right to go to the people. Keep in mind she didn't face the voters. Dan Andrews handed over to her after the last election. But once all the phones started running hot on Monday evening and into Tuesday morning, I think that's when the Premier de central and realised, you know what? I don't have the support. We then thought it would all smooth out and there'd be a simple transition to Ben Carroll. But then we had a crazy few hours on Tuesday morning.
- [03:42]
A
Yeah, it got pretty chaotic when a third contender put their hand up as well for the premiership and then withdrew almost immediately. Tell me about what happened.
- [03:52]
B
Yeah, so keep in mind, anytime there's a contest between two leaders, it has to go to the members. So the meeting was for 10 o'. Clock. It wasn't until 20 minutes past 9 that we found out for sure Jacinda Allen's not going to contest the leadership.
- [04:05]
A
I will shortly chair a caucus meeting to elect a new leader. Should Ben Carroll emerge as our next labor leader and Labor Premier, he will have my congratulations and unqualified support.
- [04:22]
B
So everyone then assumes, or at least everyone outside of the Labor Party caucus goes, oh, well, easy done. There's no other contender. Ben Carroll will be it soon. It comes out. Oh, hang on. The Decentra Allen loyalist Sonia Kilkenny, who also happens to be the Attorney General and the Planning Minister and the Finance Minister. Oh, no, no. Sonia Kilkenny's gonna contest the leadership. That immediately raised the prospect between about 10 and 11 o'. Clock. Well, hang on. That means at least 24 hours for the different leadership contenders to gather nominations. And who knows, after that, days or even weeks of campaigning between Ben Carroll, who's now the premier, and Sonya Kilkenny. In the few months we've got before the actual election campaign, before the whole Victorian public, there were some really nasty texts flying thick and fast. It has all resolved. They finally backed down. The people who were furious that Jacinta Allen has been deposed backed down. But lots of allegations of driving the party off the cliff. Lots of allegations that instead of being faceless men, you're a bunch of headless chooks. Lots of allegations of. In fact, someone said to me that the Premier and her supporters are prepared to burn the house down and to burn all the bodies inside as well. Now, it's an ugly metaphor, but they mint it. The mistrust is visceral. It's real. They've got a paper over it while fighting off the coalition and fighting off one nation and also fighting off the Greens in some inner city seats. So it's ugly, it's messy. They've got a new face and we're going to get some pretty significant new policies as well.
- [05:52]
A
Ok, so we're four months out from the election. Polls until now have been showing labor, the coalition and one nation locked into this incredibly tight contest. Those polls, they obviously, obviously rattled everyone, including within the Labor Party room. So can a change in leader, can Ben Carroll change Labor's fortunes?
- [06:09]
B
My instant guess would be no. I mean, there's no one who's thought for a long time, Ben Carroll's the superstar of Victorian politics that labor needs now. This is nothing against him, but he's not some sui generis, out of the box, one of a kind, you know, politician of his generation. They're all fine in this government, just like the state opposition cabinet is fine. But he's the bearer of hopes that there'll be significant policy change. I just want you to think about the number one policy. The number one thing the plotters want and the number one thing Ben Carroll will announce is a royal commission into corruption in the construction industry.
- [06:46]
A
My first action as premier will be to call a royal commission into the construction sector. We will also immediately establish a special prosecutor that will work in parallel with the royal commission.
- [07:03]
B
These issues, to be frank, have lingered since the 1980s. If labor now sets up a royal commission and they've got a few months, I guess, to get it going, does that genuinely change people's perceptions of what happened over the last few years? I've had tons of people ring in and say, look, lifelong labor voter, not going to change my vote. But oh, my God, why haven't they called a royal commission? The media's been debating the merits of a royal commission for years. For the very first time on Monday, while Decentraland was still premier, they actually had an argument, they actually had a fight. Do we need a royal commission in the construction industry? I do think it's a significant issue. I don't know if it's a vote changing issue. You might be pissed off with labor about that. But if you're still on the left, you might then vote Green or Independent. Of course, if you're a coalition voter, it's a huge issue, but you're already on the coalition side. We've got a first term MP in Jess Wilson leading the coalition. Then to make it even harder, I don't know who our nation's leader is in Victoria. We don't know who it is. I think there's one, maybe two candidates. They say they're going to have candidates in all 88 seats. It just makes it impossible to predict what's going to happen. And sure, the election's in November. People are going to be able to vote, they'll be able to put a one in a box in 14 weeks time. 12 weeks to the campaign, 14 weeks until early voting opens. So in electoral terms, we are five minutes to midnight from finding out what happens.
- [08:30]
A
Still to come as labor scrambles, could One Nation come out on top. Of raf? As she resigned, Jacinta Allen said, I saw off two Liberal leaders. Now I expect my successor will see off a third. And if they don't, One Nation certainly will. So talk me through the most recent polling. As One Nation has gained ground, what are their chances in Victoria in four months time?
- [08:59]
B
One Nation's doing something I don't think any political party has done in all of the time. I've been a journal for 30 years. We're in really, really new territory. If I can just be really nerdy and give you the actual numbers. The Coalition are polling at about 27%. The ALP is polling at just under 25%. So that's less than one in four voters and One Nation are averaging about 23%. That's just remarkable territory for Victoria to be in and for any political survey in Australia to be in. By comparison, when labor, when labor last lost an election so 16 years ago they were polling at 36%. So they were polling more than 10% more. But they lost the election and the Coalition were polling like in the 40s and not in the 20s. But to have one nation in the mix as a major party polling basically the same in the 20s alongside the major parties, it just means all of the usual tools and the ways that we predict what might happen all gets thrown up in the air. So it makes it very, very difficult to work out what's going to happen next.
- [10:02]
A
And as you those polling numbers are despite the party not having a state leader or any official candidates yet nine.comau paid a visit to One Nation's headquarters in Pakenham, which is located around 60km from the Melbourne CBD. And there was not a single soul in sight. The office was mostly a ghost town, save for a few placards inside and a cardboard Cutout of Pauline Hanson. Will One Nation be able to get organized enough to field candidates in all 88 seats as it's promising?
- [10:33]
B
Your question's a great question. Can they actually field candidates in every one of the 88 seats? I don't know. The South Australian experience may or may not be a great guide. They had a lot of people out there. Did they have a lot of the problems with those candidates? Absolutely they did.
- [10:47]
A
We begin tonight with a spectacular blow to One Nation's election campaign. Just as South Australians prepared to cast the their votes, the 31 year old was a no show at a court appearance in the uk, where he was due to face a charge of sexually touching a woman without consent.
- [11:06]
B
Police say it's getting very, very late in the piece. This is July, we're talking about an election in November, so you've got to nominate within a few months. But then on top of that, One Nation's polling at 20% in inner metropolitan seats. So One Nation's polling higher than the Greens. This is a Red Bridge poll. That's happened a few times. It just makes it really confusing. What does that mean? Will One Nation voters follow a One Nation preference card? Will One Nation voters preference the Conservatives ahead of preferencing the Labor Party? I don't even know who the Victorian One Nation leader is. There's someone organising the party, but it's not the person who's going to be in Parliament. So it just makes it really difficult to talk about an election at the end of November.
- [11:50]
A
And let's talk about the coalition. When it comes to the new premier, Ben Carroll, will they see his ascent as a threat or as an opportunity for them?
- [11:59]
B
Oh, it's an opportunity because you can say, oh, well, if her own party didn't want Jacinter. Alan, if the government can't even decide who they want to lead the place, why would you vote for them? So that's an asset. It's a good line. The coalition have got real problems in regional Victoria. That's where One Nation is really surging. I'm sure the National Party are really worried. The National Party have done well despite the Liberal Party's ructions in recent elections in Victoria. I am sure they are concerned. One nation's polling 30, sometimes 40% in the regions. They've got enough of their own problems. They do have stability now, however, they haven't been without their own problems. It's 11 or 12 days since the Liberal Party kicked Moira Deeming out. She has today said she's gonna leave Parliament and won't be running. So it's not like people aren't getting reminders of the fantastic ability of the Victorian Liberal Party to politically self immolate. They've been doing that spectacularly well for a very long time. Jess Wilson's biggest job is just to convince people that they have changed. That's a tall order as well. But who knows, right? Who knows where people get their news from? Who knows if people know who Jess Wilson is? Who knows how many Victorians know who Ben Carroll is? And then we don't have a one nation leader in Victoria. It makes it really tough to read.
- [13:15]
A
So, Raf, when you look at the state of play in Victoria right now, what do you think this election will tell us about where the rest of the country is headed, particularly when it comes to one nation?
- [13:26]
B
I think usually a significant number of people separate state and federal factors out. I think a lot of people are aware of what the labor government's done. Hospitals, roads. They know what the issues are, whether or not they think they're important, whether or not they think corruption's significant, whether or not it's being cleaned up, whether or not they think death's significant. I think most of the time people are able to separate those things out. Does one nation complicate that? Sure, absolutely. But the reason I'm so cautious and I know people will think I'm sitting on the fence, I lived through all of the anger at Dan Andrews over those lockdowns. Like that was visceral. That was wild, real. That was angry. What happened at the end of that? They increased their majority. They got an extra seat. Not many people were predicting that everyone was writing labor off at the last election, three and a half years ago, at the end of 22, after the tough COVID lockdowns. So it just makes it really hard to tell. And the revolution we're living in. I'm talking to you on one of these damn gadgets controlled by all of the biggest companies in the world. They're all run by people in America who's got some really poisonous values that I really find a lot of trouble with. It just means everything. Every card's been thrown up into the air.
- [14:38]
A
Well, Raf, thank you so much for your time.
- [14:41]
B
Absolute pleasure as always, Ruby.
- [14:56]
A
Also in the news, two senior leaders at the Australian Council of Trade Unions have announced they'll be stepping back from their roles. ACTU Secretary Sally McManus and President Michelle O' Neill say they've made the decision to make way for a new generation of leadership at the union, which represents 1.8 million members. The pair formed the ACTU's first all female leadership team and have led the peak body for almost a decade, during that time achieving what they describe as 47 new workplace rights that have become law under the Albanese government. And Australians are being warned to get used to higher fuel prices, as Foreign Minister Penny Wong says the government intends to discontinue the 16 cent per litre discount this coming Sunday. The recent fuel excise was implemented on April 1 before being halved from 32 cents per litre to 16 in July. Oil prices tipped over US$100 USD a barrel last week from the first time since May. The government says its focus is now on cost of living relief and ensuring stable supplies for fuel and fertiliser into Australia. I'm Ruby Jones, this is 7:00am thanks for listening.