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- [00:01]
A
I'm Ruby Jones and you're listening to 7am. The world is facing a series of large scale war, declining democracy, climate catastrophe. So is it all a sign that our civilisation is reaching its limits and that our economic and political systems are nearing collapse? That's the question Australian author Sarah Wilson has been interrogating for the last three years. Today, writer Sarah Wilson on what happens when the systems that hold us together begin to fray all at once and what the future looks like after civilizational collapse. It's Monday, june 1st. Sarah, your new book is all about civilizational collapse, which you say we're in the midst of right now. We'll get to that part in a moment, but first could you just tell us what you're talking about when you talk about civilizational collapse?
- [01:07]
B
It's a hard thing to enter into because when we talk collapse, we're not necessarily talking the collapse of humanity, although that is definitely a possibility according to most modeling that's out there at the moment. What we're really talking about is the collapse of the system. And this is sort of a bit of a misnomer, I think. We think the collapse is going to be like the movies, you know, people wandering around with a shopping trolley, you know, through apocalyptic scenes. That is not how it goes. It's a very gradual at first and then a sped up sort of undoing of all the complexifying that has been happening for the last 270 years or so. We tend to explain things in a very linear format where we grab an issue and work with a, as a system in isolation. But to understand actually what's happening to the world today, we need to actually think in terms of complex systems theory, which is about understanding that we are in a complex system of complex systems. That is essentially what our civilization is. Every complex civilization throughout history has collapsed and it has collapsed because of its complexity. So if you think of the Roman Empire, the Mayan Empire, the Jing Dynasty, they've all collapsed because they've just got too many armies, too many cities, it's required too many taxes, too many farmers that are required to pay the taxes. And then what happens is some small volcano, a small climate catastrophe, perhaps a small army entering the system. It can't actually deal with something like for instance, a flood or a volcano eruption or something like that. And that is essentially what brings a civilization to its knees. And every complex civilization has gone this way. We are a complex civilization and we are at a point where all the systems that make up our civilization, the post industrial civilization, are under all kinds of stress and they're interacting with each other. So trade route system, the AI system, the nuclear threat system system, the food security system, they're all wobbling, they're all feeding into each other. And the extra element to all of this ruby is that unlike the Roman Empire, our civilization is global. And so what is happening in South America or what's happening in the uk, is going to affect all of us.
- [03:43]
A
Can we talk a little bit more about how that might look? Because you reference collapsology and collapsologists in your work. So tell me a bit about, I guess, the field and what you can kind of glean about how this might go.
- [03:58]
B
Well, in some ways, the best way to put it is to say collapse looks like what we're in. And instead of kind of getting better, which I think a lot of people have, this sense that we're going to return to some sort of sense of normal, some sense of order once again. That ain't going to happen according to most of the modelling done in think tanks and institutes around the world. Instead, it's going to get a little bit worse and then a little bit worse. So this. But worse, when I say this, I'm talking about fragmentation, the collapse of, you know, democratic institutions. 7% of the world, only 7% of the world today lives in a liberal democracy. And that percentage is likely to decrease over coming years. It's going to look like increased AI threat, a nuclear threat, it's going to look like trade route disruptions, it's going to look like energy disruptions and Internet disruptions. And you mentioned the word collapsology, which is interesting because that's a French word, a Frenchified word, it's called collapsology or le frondement. Over in France and in Europe, which is where I'm based now, this is a term that's actually discussed on morning television programs. It's not an alien notion. The EU issued an edict to all leaders last year to inform 450 million citizens of the EU to prepare a survival kit in the event of some collapsing existential risk. So, nuclear war or otherwise, it is actually quite a, I think, a fresh new phenomenon. Here in Australia, we have been, I think, cocooned from a lot of what is happening around the world. Australia, until recently, experienced, you know, more than three decades of uninterrupted economic growth, apart from a small blip during COVID And we don't have the language for it. We don't have the leadership to discuss these kinds of things.
- [05:51]
A
And so do you think that's changing? Do you think that kind of sense of being protected from needing to talk about an issue like this, do you sense a shift?
- [05:59]
B
Yeah, I do. I certainly sense it amongst everyday people. So I wrote this book, my most recent book, I at the Stars, as a serialization on Substack. It's an international writers platform. I had a lot of Australian subscribers and they get it. I've come to Australia and I've done all kinds of events and, you know, been speaking with everyday Australians and they understand these things and they're feeling the same way I have, and that is that there's not enough discussion out there in the public. People are having these discussions at barbecues and over the dinner table, but there's no leadership. There's no sort of forum for this kind of thing. And I found this before. You know, my books have tended to tackle subjects that the Australian, I guess, landscape hasn't wanted to embrace. You know, it was sugar, it was anxiety, it was the climate crisis. But what I found always is everyday Australians are well ahead of the curve compared with the rest of the world. It's just that the leadership ain't there is quite behind
- [07:05]
A
coming up, what comes after collapse. Sarah, I suppose part of the reason for not having conversations about this is just the difficulty of emotionally grappling with these ideas. So can you tell me a bit about how you have approached that?
- [07:32]
B
Yeah, I mean, I think the neoliberal framework has tended to make individuals feel responsible for what's going on. So when we take that on, it's very hard to face the enormity of everything, you know, the everythingness that's happening. Overwhelm is a predominant response to all of this. And it's completely understandable, not aided by the fact that the bad faith actors in all of this, leaders who are coming in and filling out this space of uncertainty and disruption, they are bringing chaos to the situation. You know, Steve Bannon in the US who advises the Trump administration, openly advises the Trump team to flood the zone with shit. You know, the Romans used bread and circuses to distract people from what was happening. The leadership that is actually filling this vacuum, this space at the moment is doing the same thing. And so it's adding to the overwhelm. So our ability to cope with all of this is extremely, extremely stretched.
- [08:33]
A
So what is your advice for coping?
- [08:35]
B
You know, a common question I get asked in all of this, Ruby, is, well, should we be prepping? Should we be, you know, fleeing to the hills and homesteading? My answer to that is absolutely not, because it doesn't work. It's never worked. Less than 5% of these kinds of so called intentional communities ever last longer than five years. And that is because we as a species only ever get through tough, dark, liminal times like the one we find ourselves in now as a collective. We actually need to be in a community of at least 100 to 150 people to survive difficult times. So that's something that we need to bear in mind at all times. And I think Australians are particularly well equipped for that. So rather than getting overwhelmed, what we need to be doing is accepting that it is bigger than what we can cope with. It is happening. And one of the best ways to actually hold humanity through this is to actually be together. The only framework that is going to be able to work for what's coming at us is community. And countless studies are showing that that is the the only way forward.
- [09:44]
A
Okay, so what do you think the world then looks like after civilizational collapse? What, what is salvaged? What is salvageable?
- [09:53]
B
Well, I don't think anyone knows. And uncertainty is the main feature of what we're confronting. That is actually where most people's fear lies, is that we don't know. However, having said that, there is considerable modeling being done in various realms. So population collapse is one space where we get a bit of a picture of how things are going to go. So according to multiple think tanks and institutes have been tracking this for many years, we will reach peak population of about 9 to 10 billion sometime between 2040 and 2060. So the global replacement figure at the moment is 2.1 babies per woman. That's what's required to maintain the population. It's about to dip. Under three quarters of the world is well below that. Here in Australia we're at 1.6. In parts of Asia it's at 0.7, 0.8. And we will decline back down the other side of that hockey stick graph. That's a bell curve, if you like, eventually reaching a bottomed out population of about 1 to 4 billion within a couple of hundred years. That is quite stunning stuff. Now climate activists out there might be thinking, well, this is great news, because less people, less resources, what a fix. How beautiful. The impact of all of that will come too late to be able to sort of assist us in that climate catastrophe situation. But the opportunity we have before us right now is to determine whether we tether ourselves to a system that is collapsing, is collapsing without there being any kind of outpath, if you know what I mean. And so we can start to imagine where we're going to head next. And that's sort of why I wrote this book, because experts around the world are sort of trying to issue this clarion call, you know, please wake up. This is when we need to actually be making significant changes to the way we interact with the world. It's potentially a bleak picture, but potentially an era of stunning possibility. Humans have gone through this before, Ruby, multiple times. And out of dark times, out of dark, liminal times like the one we find ourselves in, great poetry, great art movements, great philosophy has emerged. You know, between the two world wars, existentialism emerged. Socialism and communism emerged as ideas that, you know, were expressions of human flourishing. And this, I believe, is an era we're about to enter.
- [12:28]
A
Sarah, thank you so much for talking with me.
- [12:30]
B
Thank you, Ruby.
- [12:51]
A
Also in the news, 11 Australians detained by Israeli forces while attempting to deliver aid to Gaza have submitted evidence to the International Criminal Court alleging abuse, torture and other violations during their detention. The Global Smud Flotilla called for independent international investigations, arms embargoes and reparations for alleged victims. And Buckingham palace has once again been dragged into the scandal surrounding Andrew Mountbatten Windsor. The BBC is reporting that emails handed to the palace six years ago appear to show that Andrew was sharing confidential government information while he was a trade envoy. The emails were given to the most senior officer of the royal household in 2020. Buckingham palace says it can't provide comment because of the ongoing police investigation. I'm Ruby Jones. This is 7:00am thanks for listening.