AdExchanger Talks: "The Outcomes Era Is Dead. Long Live The Quality Era" – Detailed Summary

Episode Information

• Title: The Outcomes Era Is Dead. Long Live The Quality Era
• Host: AdExchanger Talks (Hosted by Anthony Vargas)
• Guest: Eris Levin, Principal at Marketing Consultancy EMET Advisory
• Release Date: April 29, 2025

Introduction

In this episode of AdExchanger Talks, host Anthony Vargas delves into the evolving landscape of digital advertising with industry expert Eris Levin. Eris, with nearly two decades of experience in digital marketing, including over ten years at Google as a product and strategy specialist, brings insightful perspectives on the transition from the "Outcomes Era" to what she terms the "Quality Era."

The Transition from Outcomes to Quality Era

Defining the Eras Eris Levin challenges the prevailing notion that the advertising industry is entrenched in an "Outcomes Era." Instead, she posits that the obsession with outcomes—often measured through vanity metrics like impressions and clicks—has hindered true effectiveness in digital advertising. She advocates for a shift towards the "Quality Era," where the focus is on high-quality media that deliver genuine value to both advertisers and consumers.

Key Insights:

• Outcomes Era Critique: Eris argues that the industry’s long-term fixation on outcomes has led to an overreliance on metrics that don’t necessarily translate to real business value. “Even while some people might be referring to outcomes in this aspirational, really sort of beneficial way, too often it's going to be translated into, even if it is real outcomes, not necessarily incremental ones,” she explains (10:58).

• Quality Era Proposition: The Quality Era emphasizes qualitative dimensions of media—such as attention, creative quality, and audience data quality—over mere quantitative metrics. “The primary currency of media buying is... not certain audience data or predicted outcomes from individual impressions. It is thinking about the qualitative dimensions of media,” Eris elaborates (20:40).

Notable Quotes:

• “We’re moving away from where the primary currency of media buying is not audience data but qualitative dimensions of media.” – Eris Levin (20:40)
• “If you can differentiate between high, medium, and low quality in any one of those three pillars, that's where success in the Quality Era lies.” – Eris Levin (20:40)

Google's Antitrust Verdict and Industry Implications

Verdict Overview The conversation shifts to the recent antitrust verdict against Google, with Eris offering her take on its implications. She wasn't surprised by the outcome, noting that Google's monopolistic practices were evident.

Key Points:

• Market Impact: Eris foresees a fragmented open web, where low-quality, undifferentiated media will wane, and more valuable, differentiated "hedged gardens" will thrive regardless of the verdict (04:03).

• Long-Term Changes: The industry will likely continue evolving towards quality-focused advertising, irrespective of the legal outcomes surrounding Google’s business practices (06:36).

Notable Quotes:

• “We're going to see the splintering of this open web... and maybe it mostly should.” – Eris Levin (05:00)
• “The most important thing... is the splintering and the growth in the hedged garden world that’s going to happen.” – Eris Levin (06:36)

Google's Stance on Third-Party Cookies and Privacy Sandbox

Cookie Policy Reversal Eris discusses Google’s recent decision to abandon its plan for a new prompt in Chrome that would allow users to opt out of third-party cookies, maintaining the status quo.

Implications:

• Impact on Targeting: While enterprise marketers may find this change minor, smaller advertisers might continue relying on cookies, potentially prolonging the need for more reliable targeting solutions (07:01).

• Privacy Sandbox Viability: Eris expresses skepticism about the Privacy Sandbox’s ability to comprehensively replace cookies, highlighting its broad and arguably flawed approach (09:17).

Notable Quotes:

• “I think it’s really hard to predict the fallout... but I don’t think that changes with or without the monopoly ruling.” – Eris Levin (06:36)
• “Google is not really preparing us for the Quality Era... there's resistance.” – Eris Levin (41:36)

Embracing Probabilistic Modeling in the Quality Era

Shift from Deterministic to Probabilistic With the decline of third-party cookies, the industry is transitioning towards probabilistic modeling. Eris emphasizes the importance of adopting these models despite their inherent uncertainties.

Key Insights:

• Transparency is Crucial: Eris stresses that whether data is deterministic or probabilistic should be transparent to buyers to ensure informed decision-making (15:53).

• Market and Standards Collaboration: A combination of market forces and industry standards is necessary to implement effective probabilistic models that maintain quality (16:16).

Notable Quotes:

• “Let's lean into the probabilistic... and acknowledge that we're living in two worlds.” – Eris Levin (15:53)
• “We need to make it really transparent so buyers aren't checking a box without knowing the reality.” – Eris Levin (15:53)

Defining and Measuring Media Quality

Beyond Basic Metrics Eris redefines media quality, moving past traditional metrics like viewability and completed views to more nuanced measures such as attention and the contextual relevance of ads.

Quality Pillars:

1. Media Quality: Evaluating the prominence and contextual fit of ads. For example, ads shown at strategic times or in relevant geographies command higher quality.
2. Creative Quality: High-quality creative content that resonates with audiences.
3. Audience Data Quality: Precise and relevant audience targeting data.

Key Points:

• Attention Measurement: Quality is increasingly measured by how much attention an ad garners, not just whether it was viewed.

• Custom Bidding Algorithms: Tailoring bids based on qualitative factors like time of day or geographic location enhances media quality (18:28).

Notable Quotes:

• “Media quality doesn’t say don’t buy the MFA. It just says the likelihood of that being the driver of incremental effectiveness is relatively low.” – Eris Levin (23:48)
• “There's a lot of value in low-quality media if you're paying the right amount for it.” – Eris Levin (23:48)

Practical Advice for Publishers Transitioning to Quality Era

Strategic Shifts: Eris provides actionable steps for publishers aiming to align with the Quality Era, emphasizing gradual implementation and effective communication with buyers.

Recommendations:

1. Gradual Reduction of Ad Density: Decreasing the number of ads per page can increase the value of each ad slot.
2. Communicate Quality Benefits: Clearly articulate the superior value and audience reach of higher-quality media to attract premium buys.
3. Leverage Unique Audiences: Highlighting unique or premium audiences can justify higher CPMs and attract quality-focused advertisers (28:28).

Notable Quotes:

• “Publishers need to tell the story that they are offering something higher quality that’s worth paying a premium for.” – Eris Levin (28:28)
• “Brands should incorporate quality immediately to stop wasting money on low-quality supply.” – Eris Levin (28:28)

Insights on Google's Internal Dynamics and Industry Impact

Conflict of Interest at Google Eris critiques Google's internal structure, highlighting how its vast market power creates conflicts of interest that impede genuine service to advertisers and publishers.

Key Points:

• Compromised Integrity: Google's dual roles in serving both advertisers and publishers lead to compromises that may not always align with the best interests of either party (35:45).

• Influence on Industry Standards: Despite criticisms, Eris acknowledges Google's early leadership in initiatives like adstxt but notes a decline in such proactive measures (40:54).

Notable Quotes:

• “None of them have the power that Google has, which has created really bad incentives and dynamics internally.” – Eris Levin (35:45)
• “Google did a tremendous job with adstxt, but that was one of the last times they stepped up.” – Eris Levin (40:54)

Fingerprinting and Generative AI in the Quality Era

Fingerprinting’s Role Eris discusses Google's reversal on fingerprinting policies, which may enhance probabilistic targeting. She underscores the importance of balancing deterministic and probabilistic data for effective targeting.

Generative AI's Potential The conversation shifts to Generative AI (GenAI), where Eris sees both threats and opportunities. While GenAI can enhance creative quality, its effectiveness heavily depends on the availability of accurate user data.

Key Insights:

• Human Oversight: Despite AI advancements, human judgment remains crucial in making quality decisions based on nuanced business and consumer insights (46:47).

• Limited Impact Outside Walled Gardens: GenAI's benefits are more pronounced within controlled environments like Google and Meta, where user data is rich and actionable (46:47).

Notable Quotes:

• “Quality to work, I’m a big believer in humans having oversight over quality decisions because these are human insights.” – Eris Levin (49:24)
• “Fingerprinting without a clear definition remains a double-edged sword in the Quality Era.” – Eris Levin (44:35)

Principle Based Buying and Maintaining Media Quality

Principle Based Buying Explained Eris explores the concept of principle-based buying, emphasizing that it can thrive only if media quality remains a priority. Without stringent quality controls, the practice risks devolving into a "lemon market," where buyers cannot trust the quality of the media they purchase.

Key Points:

• Necessity of Quality Controls: Implementing robust quality measures ensures that principal media purchases deliver real value, preventing exploitation through low-quality inventory (49:45).

• Building Trust in Agencies: Agencies must act as true agents for buyers, ensuring that media purchases align with quality standards and business objectives.

Notable Quotes:

• “Quality controls and that signal to buyers could allow principal media as a practice to work effectively.” – Eris Levin (52:20)
• “Prioritizing quality is the best way to turn that lemon market into some lemonade.” – Eris Levin (52:20)

Conclusion

The episode concludes with a reinforced emphasis on transitioning to the Quality Era, highlighting the necessity for the industry to adopt more meaningful quality metrics and transparent practices. Eris Levin and Anthony Vargas underscore that embracing quality over mere outcomes will lead to more sustainable and effective advertising strategies in the evolving digital landscape.

Final Thoughts:

• The Quality Era represents a paradigm shift towards more meaningful, impactful advertising.
• Publishers and advertisers must prioritize transparency, quality metrics, and strategic communication to thrive.
• Industry leaders like Google play a pivotal role in shaping the future of advertising, with their decisions having wide-reaching implications.

Closing Quote:

• “This is really great. Thanks so much for an awesome discussion here.” – Eris Levin (52:37)

Note: Timestamps are provided in brackets for reference to the original transcript sections.