After Dark: Myths, Misdeeds & the Paranormal Episode: Predicting Death: Strange History of the Premonitions Bureau Release Date: December 12, 2024

Introduction

In the episode titled "Predicting Death: Strange History of the Premonitions Bureau," hosts Anthony Delaney and Maddy Pelling delve into a fascinating and eerie chapter of British history—the British Premonitions Bureau. This episode explores the intersection of tragedy, psychology, and the paranormal, unveiling how a community's collective fears and individual premonitions culminated in an institution aimed at predicting disasters.

The Aberfan Disaster: A Tragic Prelude

The episode opens with a poignant recount of the Aberfan disaster of October 21, 1966, a catastrophic event in the Welsh mining town of Aberfan, where a massive coal spoil tip collapsed, engulfing the village and claiming 144 lives, including over a hundred children.

Jennifer Preston narrates:

"The day before the disaster, 10-year-old Errol Mai Jones said to her mother, 'Mommy, let me tell you about my dream last night.'" (02:06)

This harrowing event serves as the catalyst for the establishment of the Premonitions Bureau, as it raises profound questions about foreknowledge and the possibility of predicting such tragedies.

John Barker and the Genesis of the Premonitions Bureau

Enter John Barker, a young English psychiatrist who, amidst the aftermath of Aberfan, becomes intrigued by the stories of premonitions and visions reported by the townsfolk. Barker's professional curiosity transforms into an obsession with understanding whether these forebodings hold any predictive power.

Kathleen Middleton, a key figure in the Bureau, explains Barker's dual role:

"On the one hand, he is a mainstream, classically trained doctor, and on the other hand, he's hungry for fame." (10:20)

Barker, already involved with the Society for Psychical Research, leverages his position to explore the delicate balance between scientific inquiry and the supernatural. His work raises ethical questions, especially considering the sensitivity surrounding the Aberfan tragedy.

Establishing the British Premonitions Bureau

With the backing of Peter Fairlie, the science editor of the Evening Standard, Barker initiates the Premonitions Bureau. The goal: to collect and analyze premonitions from the British public to identify patterns that might indicate impending disasters.

Maddy Pelling highlights the societal context:

"The 1960s were a period of dramatic social and technological change. Science was achieving the impossible daily, making the notion of breakthroughs in understanding the human mind seem less far-fetched." (20:35)

The Bureau operates as a blend of scientific study, publicity machine, and community support system. Jennifer Preston, the assistant to Peter Fairlie, plays a pivotal role in managing the influx of premonition reports.

Notable Predictions and Anecdotes

The episode delves into several compelling cases documented by the Bureau:

1. Errol Mai Jones' Dream: A ten-year-old's vision of darkness swallowing her school eerily mirrors the actual disaster.

   "The next morning... dark glistening waves of spoil tore downwards... the town's two schools were the first buildings in its path." (02:06)

2. Kathleen Middleton's Train Crash Prediction: In November 1967, Middleton experiences a wave of depression and scribbles a prediction of a train crash at Charing Cross station. Three days later, an express train derails nearby, resulting in over 40 fatalities.

   "She scribbled down... there would be a train crash... three days later, a train came off the tracks... more than 40 people were killed." (37:19)

3. Astronaut's Demise and Political Assassination: Middleton's concerns about an astronaut in space coincided with the tragic death of Soviet cosmonaut Vladimir Komarov. Additionally, her insistence on the assassination of Bobby Kennedy in 1968 adds to the Bureau's collection of significant predictions.

The Bureau's Operations: A Day in the Life

A typical day at the Premonitions Bureau involved Jennifer Preston managing communications, sorting predictions, and coordinating with Barker, who analyzed the data for recurring patterns.

"Jennifer Preston was described by one of her colleagues as like a kind of captain in the army." (27:40)

The Bureau employed the latest technology of the time, envisioning the use of computers to detect peaks and patterns in the collected premonitions, thereby striving to scientifically validate the possibility of precognition.

The Demise of the Premonitions Bureau

The Bureau's existence was short-lived, ending abruptly with the sudden death of John Barker in 1968 due to a brain embolism. Intriguingly, Barker himself became the subject of a prediction by a Bureau member, Alan Hencher, who warned of Barker's impending death.

"Alan Hencher... calls Barker and says, 'I'm really worried about you and I think you're gonna die.'" (40:41)

This eerie coincidence underscored the fragile boundary between belief and skepticism surrounding the Bureau's endeavors.

Reflections on Supernatural vs. Statistical Probability

In the concluding discussions, Kathleen Middleton offers a critical perspective on the Bureau's findings:

"About 3% of the predictions sent to the British Premonitions Bureau were kind of recorded as being kind of successful predictions or premonitions... it's around the kind of Margin of error." (44:09)

She emphasizes the role of human psychology and the law of large numbers in interpreting such phenomena, suggesting that while some predictions coincidentally align with real events, the overall statistical significance remains questionable.

Conclusion

The episode wraps up by acknowledging the complex legacy of the British Premonitions Bureau. While it offers a captivating glimpse into a time where the lines between science and the supernatural were being fervently explored, it also serves as a reminder of the profound psychological impacts such tragedies have on communities and individuals.

Anthony Delaney aptly summarizes:

"It was really eye-opening... lifts the veil on this particular past and looks at the eccentric edges to British society." (44:09)

Listeners are encouraged to delve deeper into this intriguing subject by exploring Sam Knight's book, The Premonitions Bureau, which provides an in-depth analysis of this peculiar blend of tragedy, science, and the human psyche.

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