← After Party with Emily Jashinsky
After Party with Emily Jashinsky
Megan Rapinoe's Horrible Take, Trump Torches NYT, and Media Distorts Savannah Guthrie’s Message, with Michele Tafoya and Tom Bevan
01:12:29
Emily Jashinsky is joined by Michele Tafoya, Republican candidate for Senate in Minnesota, four-time Emmy Award-winning broadcaster and former NFL sideline reporter to discuss why Tafoya has decided to run. They also discuss Minnesota’s troubles, a new protest on Easter Sunday outside the church Don Lemon stormed, Tim Walz’s radical “No Kings” message, and Megan Rapinoe ripping the IOC's new policy to protect women's sports. Then Emily is joined by Tom Bevan, Co-Founder & President of RealClearPolitics, to talk about President Trump’s news conference on Iran, his battle with the media, and what the Midterm tea leaves are saying. Emily rounds out the show with Savannah Guthrie’s powerful Easter message in the wake of her mother’s disappearance and how the media completely missed the mark in its coverage of her remarks. PreBorn: Help save a baby go to https://PreBorn.com/Emily or call 855-601-2229. Unplugged: Switching is simple, Visit https://Unplugged.com/EMILY and order your...
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- [00:00]
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- [01:08]
Emily (Podcast Host)
Welcome back to afterparty everyone. The show for people who like their news maybe a little bit lighter, maybe a little bit later. I'm still rolling with that tagline. We'll see how long it sticks. For tonight we're going to be joined by Minnesota Senate candidate Michelle Tafoya and then Tom Bevin of RealClearPolitics. Make sure to support our independent journalism by clicking the subscribe button on YouTube. It helps us so much. Also, wherever you get your podcasts, we appreciate it. We're going to start with Michelle in just one moment and believe me, we have a lot to get to in Minnesota. I know you believe me probably don't need to convince you of that. Protesters were back at it. They were there at City's Church in St. Paul just in time for Easter. Of course, the state just continues to be plagued with chaos and division, as many of you know. So there's a lot to get to with Michelle then. Tom Bevin's going to join us to break down Donald Trump's major press conference today, including his brutal back and forth with the New York Times and some some big news about what he's planning to do with that deadline tomorrow. The people of Iran are bracing for the attacks that Donald Trump is threatening. So just hours to go on that and Tom is here to break it down. He's also a polling guru, so we are going to get his take on some big new numbers showing that both Trump and the Democrats look like they're in trouble right now. And how does that work? How are Trump and Democrats in trouble at the same time? Tom's going to explain. And finally, if you're just tuning in for the first time and you're thinking, wow, what a well styled host. So in so fashionable. Do not get used to it. I was on the Megyn Kelly show today and Megan and her wonderful team gave me a makeover. Uh, I'm always obviously incredibly beautiful. So today is just on another level. Um, and I apologize to the listening audience that you're missing out on this, that you've been deprived of all of this. Finally, one announcement. My brother's fiance created this afterparty cup for me. Uh, and so now I have a Corona light in the after party cup. So shout out to her. I think it looks pretty cool. All right, that's enough of me. We're gonna take a quick, quick, quick, quick break and be back with Michelle Tafoya in just one moment. But first, over the years, I have been clear about this. I am not just pro birth. I'm pro life. There is a big distinction between those two things. And being pro life means standing with mothers not only before the baby is born, but long after. And that is exactly why I partner very proudly with preborn Now. Preborn doesn't just save babies. They make motherhood abundantly possible. They provide free ultrasounds and share the of the gospel with women in need. And then they stay. How cool is that? With real practical help, including financial support for up to two years after the baby is born. That's incredible. That is what true Christ centered compassion looks like. Not just for the baby, but for the mother too. And here's where you can make a difference. Just $28. Just $28 provides a free life saving ultrasound. One chance for a mother to see her baby. This is a real statistic. And when she's twice as likely to choose life. Preborn is trying to save 70,000 babies this year. That is a real tangible number. You can be a part of it. So don't just say you're pro life. Live it. Help save babies and support mothers today. Go to preborn.com/emily or call 855-601-2229. That's preborn.com/emily. You ever feel like your money is just lying around? Switch to Huntington Bank. And your money is always doing something.
- [04:51]
Michelle Tafoya
Like what?
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Emily (Podcast Host)
Like automatically pushing more to savings. You trip. I like trips. Who doesn't? It even tracks your progress. You're almost there.
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Michelle Tafoya
Wow. I better pack.
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Emily (Podcast Host)
And it charts your spending so you know which vacation hat you can afford.
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Emily (Podcast Host)
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- [05:15]
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- [05:45]
Emily (Podcast Host)
right, I'm excited now to bring in Michelle Tafoya. She's a Republican candidate for senate in Minnesota. Four time Emmy award winning broadcaster, former NFL sideline reporter. Michelle, every time I have to talk to you, I've been starstruck. So thank you for being here.
- [05:59]
Michelle Tafoya
I'm the one who's starstruck today because you are styled so beautifully. I wish that your audio only audience could could see you in that stunning green. The hair, the. It's all just Chef's kiss as they say.
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Emily (Podcast Host)
Oh well, right back at you Michelle. And I wanted to start just by asking why, you know, you have been, you've been doing TV for so long. I feel like what you were doing was so fun and exciting and now you' going into politics and politics is a mess. Republicans don't typically win statewide in Minnesota there are so many challenges in front of you. So why do it? Why put yourself through this?
- [06:40]
Michelle Tafoya
Michelle, you know the, the question about Minnesota. One of our most, one of our most beloved senators is Senator Rudy Boshwitz who was in the Senate when Reagan was in office. So it's been a while. He is in my corner and he really believes that I can win. So look, I got into it. Why? Because yeah, I had a great career, Emily. There's no question it was fun. The Olympics, the NBA, the NFL, all of it.
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Emily (Podcast Host)
Golf.
- [07:09]
Michelle Tafoya
It was great. Great. There was a point a long time ago where I really started thinking about serving and what I could do to serve the country that I love. And it. I guess I really got pushed over the edge when I saw how declining, how in decline Minnesota is, was, is. And that includes everything from public education to crime to all the chaos that you've been talking about, the fraud. This stuff just made me think I can't just sit here and look at this. I think that I have a platform that I can use and I think I can win. And so yeah, odds against us, no question. But we feel really good about where we are. And I know every candidate says. Says that, but I think our metrics tell a good story.
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Emily (Podcast Host)
It's also kind of a new time in politics, which is interesting in that campaigns are done differently. I mean, right now, you're talking to me on a podcast, presumably from an easily accessible studio. You're not in a TV studio. You're not in New York. You're taking this message straight from your own studio onto, like, independ platforms. And I feel like having done what you've done for so long, you're very prepared for the new messaging environment because you understand the kind of normal person, given your career, you've probably interacted with normal people, every single day of your life will come up to you and say, oh, man. Michelle Tafoya. It gives you actually good preparation for this media environment, I would imagine.
- [08:39]
Michelle Tafoya
It absolutely has. I mean, all of my entire career has. You get as many reps as I've had over the years, Emily, and you think, you know, it's. It becomes almost second nature. But this is a new animal in that, you know, we're talking about issues that affect people's lives. We're talking about fraud, we're talking about taxes, we're talking about health care, we're talking about the war in Iran. We're talking about all kinds of things. So, you know, I spent the last three and a half years doing a podcast of my own and really digging in deep to those issues with a lot of guests. And that was great, great exposure for me to. To talk to these people and to learn and to grow my. My wealth of knowledge, but also just to. Yeah, to master the messaging. There's a lot to this there. And you said normal people, which I smiled at because there are a lot of normal people in the world. And, you know, right now we tend to be very polarized. I think a state like Minnesota is really looking for someone who can speak to both sides, and I think that's what I bring.
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Emily (Podcast Host)
Yeah, that's interesting because I wanted to talk to you a little bit about some of the weirdos, the abnormal people who were gathered outside of city's church in St. Paul for. What else? Easter Sunday. Where else would they be on Easter Sunday? But outside of city's church in St. Paul, which is, of course, where the protesters stormed as Don Lemon live streamed the activism, whatever he called it back. That was February, I guess, man. So a protester named Emily Phillips was arrested yesterday and then released today after a judge who was appointed by Tim Walls dismissed the Charges. So let's first take a look at what the scene was outside of city's church. You can as you can see it on the screen there. They're shouting obscenities. There are children nearby. It's nasty. Here was Emily Phillips leaving jail and giving what I could only I couldn't help but be amused by this very self serious speech. Michelle, let's take a look at Emily Phillips. Oh my God.
- [11:01]
Michelle Tafoya
Absolutely amazing.
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Emily (Podcast Host)
I thank all of you for being here. I thank you, Trisha Poland and James Cook. And it was. I was cold and I was uncomfortable, but nothing happened. I am out. The charge has been dismissed.
- [11:19]
Michelle Tafoya
Let's go.
- [11:23]
Emily (Podcast Host)
By the way.
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Michelle Tafoya
Oh.
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Emily (Podcast Host)
Oh, that's lovely. That's lovely. Well, your governor, Michelle, had this to say at the big no Kings protest in St. Paul last week. They have been radicalized, but it's only by, by kindness. Let's take a listen.
- [11:38]
Protester (Emily Phillips)
They, they call us radicals. I, I see that, I see that. The, the president said it's a bunch of radicals. You damn right. We've been radicalized. Radicalized by compassion, radicalized by decency, radicalized by due process, radicalized by democracy and
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Tom Bevin
radicalized to do all we can to oppose, Oppose authoritarianism.
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Emily (Podcast Host)
Is Tim Walls radically decent? And the protesters, are they radically decent?
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Michelle Tafoya
Michelle, you know, when he talks about compassion and decency, I wonder what he thinks about. How does he, how does he justify all the fraud that took place under his watch? Where every single Minnesotan who is a taxpayer and lots of other Americans because a lot of this was federal taxes were robbed of their hard earned cash because they thought that it should go to a leering center or, you know, the, the feeding our future, which no one got fed. Where's the compassion in that? Where's the compassion in allowing girls sports to be, you know, have males playing and taking roster spots away from girls, taking scholarship opportunities away from girls? Where's the compassion? I know he's going to say the compassion is on behalf of the trans athlete. No one's saying that athlete can't compete. But as the IOC just said, we've got to compete in your division. We fought so long for title nine and now they're just sort of putting it in a shredder. Where's the compassion there? Where's the compassion in defunding the police, which Minnesota was the, you know, the epicenter of during the George Floyd riots? Where was the compassion in letting a police precinct burn to the ground? Where was the compassion from this governor who didn't say a word for days during the George Floyd riots and people's businesses got trashed. Where was that? I mean, I could go on and on. He likes to say that he's compassionate and civil and decent. I'm sorry, I. I don't see it.
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Emily (Podcast Host)
Well, yet. Well, a Wall's appointed judge was dismissing those charges against Emily Phillips. Now, they said they didn't have enough to make the charges stick. Emily Phillips stepped out onto a sidewalk in front of city's church and had gotten multiple notices for being too loud. All of the protesters had. But I think a lot of people would look at the scene outside of city's church. A lot of Minnesotans would look at that and say, there's nothing decent about that. There's nothing decent about defending it. It has to stop. And Michelle, I'm curious why. I mean, Fox News had this big report today from Astronomy. $250,000, a quarter of million dollars was spent by some leftist groups to put up that massive no Kings protest last week that we just played a clip of. Tim, while speaking at. Why is Minnesota of all places? I mean, people around the country are scratching their heads about this. I'm sure people in rural Minnesota are scratching their heads about this.
- [14:40]
Michelle Tafoya
Oh, they are.
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Emily (Podcast Host)
Why has Minnesota become a hotbed of chaos?
- [14:43]
Michelle Tafoya
You know, I think that. That we are Minnesota nice and sometimes compassionate at our own expense. And I think a lot of Minnesotans are waking up to this. Gad. Sad. The professor calls it suicidal empathy. Meaning you're such an empath that you would let anyone do anything and it might even end up harming you. But you're. You've got to be, you know, an empath. So look, I see it all around greater Minnesota. People are angry. They don't feel represented. They don't feel like what you saw there at this no Kings rally represented them. You know, you can trot out Bruce Springsteen, you can trot out the celebs, you can trot out all that money. And by the way, where it came from is a whole nother story. This is not organic. This is a produced financed bit of activism that is. Is really just not representative of the state of Minnesota. So November is going to be fascina. And I. I genuinely believe people want to see change. That's why Tim Walls isn't running anymore. The leering center was kind of his undoing, right? All that whole bit of video that was put out on the Internet showing how much fraud there was and how easily it was, it was spotted. And then suddenly Tim Walls is like, you know, maybe I can't run. I'll step down.
- [16:09]
Emily (Podcast Host)
Yeah, that was remarkable in and of itself, actually. So on that point, senators confirm, Cabinet secretaries. Now, looking back at Operation Metro Surge, obviously Kristi Noem is no longer DHS secretary, and it's Mark Wayne Mullen. How do you look back at DHS's oversight of Operation Metro Surge? Because there were even some people on the right that were uncomfortable with what transpired in the state. How are you looking back at it now?
- [16:36]
Michelle Tafoya
Well, you know, I jumped into this Senate race right when all hell was breaking loose.
- [16:41]
Emily (Podcast Host)
You sure did.
- [16:42]
Michelle Tafoya
It was right then. And, you know, you find yourself in the middle of. Right. Jumping into a Senate race, and these are the questions you're asked, and you've got to respond. And I responded genuinely, and this is what I've said then, and I'll say it now. Two people did not have to die. Renee Good and Alex Preddy. And honestly, anyone who suffered a death of a friend or family member knows how heartbreaking this is for those families. I, I, it's, it's gutting. It's, it's awful, and it didn't have to happen. Now, two things can be true at the same time, and I will say this, that you, your guy Tim Walls, that you just showed there, and our mayor, Jacob Fry, were also out there agitating people. At the same time, they were preventing law enforcement, local law enforcement, the, the police department from assisting in any way, shape or form. The, the law enforcement could have been out there putting up barricades, saying, you know, this is an ICE operation. We're not helping with the actual operation, but we need to keep people back. We need to keep people safe. We need to keep the onlookers safe. The people who are being pursued need to keep them safe, and we need to keep the officers safe. I remember one of the conversations I had with a police officer who said, you know, we risk life and limb to go put someone, a criminal, a dangerous criminal behind bars, and then they release them. And now you're asking federal officers to come in and do the same thing, risk their life and limb to put these people back behind bars. Where is the sense in this? So we have these two, two opposing forces that really made for the Perfect Storm. And it was, it was not good. And anything that was wrong that needs to be adjudicated should be adjudicated.
- [18:30]
Emily (Podcast Host)
Another thing the Senate has voted on is tariffs. And I went back and looked. I think you did a whole interview episode of your show on tariffs. Like an expert, somebody who'd studied it really closely. And Minnesota obviously has a lot of ag important relationships with Canada. And I mean, I'm from Wisconsin. I know how important for farmers being so close to Canada is and how that can change your business and the like. So do you have a sense, you know, there have been some Republicans who've crossed over to vote with Democrats on the tariffs. Do you have a sense of what would be best for Minnesota? Do you trust the President's continued stewardship of the trade relationships? What are you thinking about on that issue right now?
- [19:09]
Michelle Tafoya
Well, certainly the President in his work in trade has brought in trillions of dollars to the United States. And we are still, still rebounding from the four years of just sky high inflation from the Biden administration. I don't want to overlook that because it can't be overlooked because it's in the paperwork. It's fact. Right. This is what we've had to come back from. I've talked to multiple farmers who really just want government to stay out of their way and let them do what they need to do at the same time. You know, look, we're talking corn, we're talking soybeans, we're talking sugar beet and these things. Some of people have benefited from some subsidies in the farm bill. So I would need to see exactly what the proposals are. I would need to look at the legislation very carefully before I decided how, how to go about doing this. But I, some of the farmers are very patient and they've said, look, this was sort of baked in, saw it coming, knew this might be a factor. So we prepared other farmers maybe. Didn't you? Look these, no one works harder than farmers. No one. You know that too. Having been from Wisconsin, they are around the clock year round. It's a constant game of catching up. So it's a very nuanced issue and one that I certainly would like. All the facts in front of me before I deliver an answer on that.
- [20:31]
Emily (Podcast Host)
Yeah, entirely fair. You mentioned the IOC earlier and I wanted to get into that because speaking of why Minnesota finds itself in the
- [20:40]
Michelle Tafoya
crosshairs one issue to the next, it's just unbelievable.
- [20:45]
Emily (Podcast Host)
It is. The Department of Justice just announced a lawsuit against Minnesota's Department of education over Title 9 violations. And this is a really strong lawsuit just looking at it. The DOJ is suing the Minnesota Department of Education for, quote, requiring girls to compete against boys in athletic competitions that are designated exclusively for girls and allowing boys to invade intimate spaces designed exclusively for girls, such as multi person locker rooms and bathrooms. The way that I wanted to because you've been so outspoken on this, Michelle, and I'm curious now that you've been campaigning, gas prices are high. There is some discomfort over the, the tariffs, there's housing shortages that younger people are dealing with, student debt, all of that. Where does this factor in? It's such a common sense issue. But when pocketbook issues come into it, those people weigh those. So what are you hearing?
- [21:35]
Michelle Tafoya
They do. But at the same time, whenever I bring that topic up and I say unapologetically, there should be no boys in girls sports, the place erupts because everyone's seen it. No girl, dad wants this. No, no, dad wants to see this for his kids. It's, it is a common sense issue. So this falls under that bucket of things like voter ID and, you know, men and women's sports and some of the, the simpler things that are really 80, 20, and I would say closer to 90, 10 issues. And this is a big one. And, you know, I gotta mention Megan Rapinoe, the former soccer player whom I covered in the, in the London Olympic Games back in 2012.
- [22:20]
Emily (Podcast Host)
And Michelle, we actually have a clip, we have this clip of Rapinoe that I want to get you to respond to. Yes, you're going to love it. You've probably already seen it, but this is S4, Megan Rapinoe on a podcast just a couple of days ago. So let's take a look.
- [22:33]
Megan Rapinoe
A really horrible rule that came out from the International Olympic Committee. They've announced a new policy that they're calling. I can't even believe they're calling it this because it has nothing to do with protecting women, the protection of the female bracketed women's category. We already know that biology, as much as we want it to be just nice and clean and tight and perfectly in one category, another, it's not. We know that. So now what we're doing is subjecting everybody, all women and all people who are identifying as exactly what they do. It's really invasive testing that only to me just says like, oh, so we're just trying to whittle it down to a certain type of woman. Is that what we're doing? Like, that's really the whole game here.
- [23:27]
Emily (Podcast Host)
I mean, they're the ones who subjected all women to this. Michelle, I could go off, but you mentioned that you covered her, so you're probably not surprised by any of that.
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Michelle Tafoya
You know, it's gotten very disappointing though, because in 2012 at the Olympic Games in London, she was, it seemed, a little more pro woman than she is now. Look, it's XX and X, Y are not the same. And this is not an invasive test. And by the way, you know what else? They subject Olympic athletes to drug tests of various kinds. You know, you have to pee in a cup or whatever because they don't want people having advantages from performance enhancing drugs. This is like a cheek swab. That's not invasive. Do you know how many nasal up the nose Covid tests I had to take just to cover the NFL? I didn't even play in the NFL. I was covering it. I had to have three tests every week. This thing going up. Talk about invasive. This is not for her to say. It's, you know, we want science to boil down to this very nice, tight, clean package. Actually it is very, very simple. And don't let perfect be the enemy of the good. Megan we have seen, Ms. Rapinoe, many instances where women have been robbed of titles, whether it be swimming or golf or boxing. And at in the name of this inclusion, if you are a male and you test positive for being a male, then you should compete against males. And if you can't get as far in that division as you like, tough noogies. Neither can a lot of people. That's the way the world works. Let the best of the women compete and let the best of the men compete. One quick example and I'll finish with this. When I covered world championship swimming before the Olympics, there was this mixed medley relay where you got two men and two women to, to swim the various strokes. And it was very strategically organized by the teams because they thought, well, our best backstroker is a woman, but she would have to compete with their male backstroker who's a mate. That might, that leg might not help us. So let's use her instead over here. It was all very strategic. Why? Because they're different skill sets and different skill levels, period. The end. It is simple. Megan Rapinoe it is.
- [25:44]
Emily (Podcast Host)
You know, this just occurred to me. I hadn't planned to ask about this, but your experience speaks to what so many people on the right got frustrated with over the last 10 years, which was specifically that corporations which conservatives had had looked very warmly upon these great American corporations. Turning to the insanity of, for example boys and women's sports and saying that you're bigot if you don't support it, that you're a bad like getting going full Rapinoe.
- [26:10]
Michelle Tafoya
Yeah.
- [26:10]
Emily (Podcast Host)
In Minnesota, Minneapolis in particular, the Twin Cities have a ton of corporate headquarters that I imagine as a US Senator, your experience kind of prepares you to push Back on this cultural pressure from corporations. I'm sure you, you're prepared for that.
- [26:26]
Michelle Tafoya
I'm ready to go. And you know, it's interesting because we have had some corporations leave us and go to greener pastures where it's a little bit more friendly to businesses. Minnesota has a pretty unfriendly business environment and that's part of this problem. We're losing some of the best minds, the best businesses, the best philanthropy out of Minnesota because of some of this stuff, whether it be the high taxes or, you know, just the environment in which to work. So and, and you see a lot less expansion. We've got companies that are headquartered in Minnesota and they're not expanding within their own state. They're saying it's just not friendly here. So we're going to, we're going to go to South Dakota, we're going to take our expansion to Wisconsin or Iowa. So this is something that I think businesses have already felt some of the pushback, Emily. I think that they feel like, you know, that the wokeness has come back to hurt them. And so some of them are already quietly sort of toning that down that rhetoric within their companies. But it has to, it's got to stop. It's particularly when it comes to distinguishing between men and women. And that is not phobic of anyone. I don't care how you want to live your life, but when you then impose that in a category like women's sports, you've got a whole nother argument coming.
- [27:53]
Emily (Podcast Host)
And finally, last question, and this is one that you're going to get a lot, you've already gotten it a lot, which is abortion. I think you and I probably would have a respectful good faith disagreement on it. But I was curious to ask, which is totally fine, by the way. The, the president disagrees with probably many of, of his own voters and many conservative aligned independents that he brought into the MAGA coalition. But just a question about when you, how you think about where life begins. When life begins. Michelle.
- [28:24]
Michelle Tafoya
Well, first of all, as a senator, this is no longer in the, the federal government's purview. This is a state's issue. And sadly, sadly, Minnesota's laws have become somewhat barbaric. I am not a, you know, abortion on demand fan. I am not a person that thinks that you should abort a child after a certain point when that child is feasible outside of the womb. And we also, as much as Tim Walls tried to deny it in his debate with JD Vance, they have changed and massaged the law so that if There is a botched abortion and you've got a surviving infant. It used to be you had to care for that infant. That's not spelled out in the law anymore. I can't even believe that we've gotten to this point in Minnesota. So I'm certainly not aligned with that radical approach to the issue. I think I align with Trump on this issue in that I don't like abortion, but I also believe in a woman's right to choose. I think it's between her and her morality and her doctor. And as a woman who went through horrible infertility issues and lost a number of babies along the way. And also I have that side of it. And I also adopted a baby girl from Bogota, Colombia, when she was three months old. We, fortunately, my husband and I were blessed miraculously with a son and then we adopted our baby girl. And I wish I could. I thank God every day that her mom had her and gave her life so that we could raise her as our daughter. It's one of the most amazing gifts I've ever seen. It's the most amazing gift both my kids are. And so I see life kind of ahead for my kids. And that's what really drives me into this political scene is I see what life could be like for them. And it's not where it used to be, Emily. It's not this. Minnesota is not the Minnesota that people remember. And for my kids, I want to try to pull it back from the, from the brink and bring some sensibility to this, to this place, bring some common sense back, bring some, you know, Tim Walls likes to say he's about decency. I beg to differ. I think a decent culture looks a lot different from the one that he's propagated here in Minnesota. So, yeah, I am against taxpayer funded abortion and I, I will happily vote for conservative judges. But again, the issue is no longer under, under the Senate's purview, thanks to
- [31:11]
Emily (Podcast Host)
a great decision at the Supreme Court.
- [31:14]
Michelle Tafoya
Right, right.
- [31:16]
Emily (Podcast Host)
That was, yeah, that has, it's, it's interesting because the amount of abortions has, has gone up, but sending it back to states has been a big, big step in the right direction. So, Michelle Tafoya, U.S. senate candidate in Minnesota, what a pleasure to talk to you.
- [31:32]
Michelle Tafoya
Likewise. Always great to see you. Thank you so much for the time.
- [31:36]
Emily (Podcast Host)
Oh, absolutely. Michelle, have a great evening.
- [31:38]
Michelle Tafoya
You too.
- [31:41]
Emily (Podcast Host)
That was fantastic. So lucky to have Michelle on the show this evening. We're going to take a quick break and be right back with Tom Bevin of RealClear. Politics. See you in a bit. Well, for years, legacy media, government and big data companies coaxed us into surrendering our digital freedom, giving lip service, of course, to privacy while leaving digital back doors wide open for their own purposes. Sometimes they're blatant in conveying the idea that encryption is only for criminals. Or that if you want privacy, you must have something to hide. Well, how did we get here from cherishing our fourth amendment rights to giving them up so readily for convenience? We talk about this on the show all the time. It was engineered. Powerful people discovered that with the right incentives, people willingly surrender their data. Who profits? The same government agencies, platforms and media companies that want you exposed and compliant. Well, Unplugged set out to do something about it. The upphone by Unplugged is the smartphone designed to restore your rights when it comes to blocking third party trackers from shadowy data brokers. The UPPhone by Unplugged outshines every device on the market. There's even a battery disconnect switch. So off really means off. All of this is independently verified and tested so you can be confident in knowing your upphone is the most private smartphone you can buy. Check out upphone from unplugged@unplugged.com Emily that's unplugged.com Emily. You're more than just one thing. And your vehicle should have more too. More connectivity when you're the boss. Hey Google, when's my next meeting? More space when you're the ringleader and we're good. And when you're the mom. Everyone in the all new Mazda CX5 more to move every side of you. Learn more at MazdaUSA.
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Emily (Podcast Host)
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Emily (Podcast Host)
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- [34:32]
Tom Bevin
Hey.
- [34:32]
Donald Trump
Hey.
- [34:32]
Tom Bevin
How we doing?
- [34:34]
Emily (Podcast Host)
Good. Did you Know that you're one of the most popular guests on Afterparty.
- [34:37]
Tom Bevin
Is that right? I noticed Michelle Tafoya wasn't drinking, so I'm gonna raise one today.
- [34:42]
Emily (Podcast Host)
Cheers.
- [34:43]
Tom Bevin
Did you. Did you not shame her by drinking in front of her?
- [34:46]
Emily (Podcast Host)
I did. You know, I. I give Senate candidates some grace.
- [34:50]
Tom Bevin
You were trying to be respectful. I understand.
- [34:53]
Emily (Podcast Host)
Tom, when you run for Senate, which I'll fully support, you have my endorsement. Then I'll lay off.
- [34:58]
Tom Bevin
I will need to move to another state, which we're actually considering, but we still have a bunch of kids in school. And, you know, we've lived in Illinois for forever, and, you know, we live in a very liberal neighborhood. Evanston, Illinois. It's Jan Schakowski's retiring. Daniel Biss is going to be our new congressperson. It's, you know, and the taxes are high, the weather's not good, but we really like our little neck of the woods. And we've got, you know, once you put down roots someplace. We've lived there for 22, 24 years. And so it's hard. But our last. Our youngest is going to be. He's a freshman in high school right now, so we've been talking about, you know, when he's out of school or when he's in college, where we might relocate to, but for the time being. And. And that might induce me to run for Senate somewhere, Emily, if we move to. But I'm not running for Senate in the state of Illinois because, you know, it's just not going to happen.
- [35:55]
Emily (Podcast Host)
No announcements yet?
- [35:57]
Tom Bevin
No announcements yet. I'm going to. I'm going to listen. I'm gonna be a very purposeful carpet bagger. I'm just kidding.
- [36:06]
Emily (Podcast Host)
It's gonna be Florida.
- [36:07]
Tom Bevin
I don't know that. You know, it takes a really odd. I don't say odd, but a certain kind of personality to run. And you just have Michelle on it. She's actually one of the most normal people. We interviewed her right after her announcement. And I was. She's like super normie, which I really appreciated it. And I thought, why do you want to do this? Why do you want to subject yourself to it?
- [36:30]
Emily (Podcast Host)
That was my first question for her.
- [36:32]
Tom Bevin
Yeah. And, you know, she's. And. And I love that people that normies are still engaged and like, going to throw their hat in the ring and do all this. But when you look at some of the folks who. Who run and win, and it's not a very, you know, I've covered Politics now for 25 years, and it's it's not super glamorous. I mean, sure, if you win and you get in the Senate, then everything's great. But like if you're running for Senate, you know, and you got to drive around the state, go to these pancake breakfasts at 7am and shake hands. It's kind of. And then, and then in between stops, you're on the phone begging for money. I mean, it's really, it's, it is kind of soul sucking and bleak. The way our system is, is kind of set up. So, yeah, I don't know that I'm cut out for that, honestly.
- [37:21]
Emily (Podcast Host)
Well, we'll see, we'll see.
- [37:23]
Tom Bevin
Never say never, Tom.
- [37:25]
Emily (Podcast Host)
One thing I couldn't see you doing is giving a press conference like President Trump delivered this afternoon from the White House where he said, let's actually just roll this clip. This was probably the big headline from the press conference. It was a press conference of many headlines, per usual. He was in the White House briefing room. You notice when he's in there, he changes the lighting a little bit. It does look good, which is befitting because he understands television and cameras and lighting and the like. This is S7. We are up on a deadline that Donald Trump set for Iran. He said he's going to bomb them back into the Stone Ages. That we're going to find out tomorrow. Iran is obviously even more on edge knowing that Donald Trump is threatening potentially civilian infrastructure. We'll get into that in just a moment. But here's what he said at the presser. Your messaging on the war has moved from the war is coming to an end to war, going to be bombing Iran to the Stone Ages. And we've heard a range of those kind of messages. So are you. So which is it? Are you winding this down? Are you?
- [38:26]
Donald Trump
I can't tell you. I don't know. I can't. It depends what they do. This is a critical period. I can tell you they're negotiating, we think in good faith. We're going to find out. We're giving them till tomorrow, 8 o' clock Eastern Time. And after that they're going to have no bridges, they're going to have no power plants. Stone Ages. Yeah.
- [38:51]
Emily (Podcast Host)
Tom, he had an exchange with the New York Times that was really brutal, not by Trumpian standards, but by normal president reporter standards actually on this exact question of bombing infrastructure. So let's go ahead and see this mashup of those exchanges. It was New York Times and CNN. This is S6. Deliberate attacks on civilian infrastructure violate the Geneva Conventions and International law.
- [39:18]
Donald Trump
Who are you with?
- [39:18]
Emily (Podcast Host)
I'm with the New York Times. Zolin from the New York Times. Are you failing?
- [39:22]
Donald Trump
The failing. Are you concerned circulation way down at the New York Times.
- [39:25]
Emily (Podcast Host)
Are you concerned that your threat to bomb power plants and bridges amount to one?
- [39:29]
Donald Trump
No, not at all.
- [39:30]
Emily (Podcast Host)
No.
- [39:31]
Donald Trump
I hope I don't have to do it. Well, if you think I'm going to allow them and powerful and rich to have a nuclear weapon, you can tell your friends at the New York Times, not going to happen. You no longer have credibility. The New York Times because the New York Times said, oh, Trump won't win the election and I wanted a landslide.
- [39:54]
Emily (Podcast Host)
CNN fake Are you willing to make a deal that does not include reopening the Strait of Hormuz or is that
- [40:01]
Coop Sleepgoods Advertiser
now a top priority?
- [40:03]
Donald Trump
I would say it's a very big priority. But, but to close the strait, all you need is one terrorist that somehow has a truck loaded with, because you can carry them in trucks, large trucks, a water mine, drop them in the water. And now you tell people that own chips that cost $1 billion to don't worry about the mine.
- [40:24]
Emily (Podcast Host)
Tom, Normally I am, I find myself like on Trump's side when he's yelling at reporters. I think it hits very differently in times of war, but I can't tell if I'm just being somebody who lives and work in D.C. and has journalist brain maybe.
- [40:40]
Tom Bevin
I mean it's, it's his favorite.
- [40:42]
Emily (Podcast Host)
Speaking of, from Illinois.
- [40:43]
Tom Bevin
He's still, yeah, he, he, he still loves to mix it up with the reporters and call him fake news. And that's part of his stick and he's gotten a lot of mileage out of that. I, I do think the
- [40:58]
Protester (Emily Phillips)
you're going
- [40:59]
Tom Bevin
to commit war crimes attack angle, whatever is, is a bit preposterous. I don't, you know, I saw, I think it was Chris Van Holland or one of the senators, like this, this illegal war of choice and Donald Trump's going to commit war crimes. That feels to me just over the top. I mean, look, Trump is, is executing this war and, and he's trying to make, force these guys to submit. And, and so he is threatening them. And I, I do think he will follow through on some of that. But, but bombing some countries, infrastructure is not, that's not a war crime. I mean, he's not targeting civilians. He's not doing, you know, he, he is trying to, we were talking about, Carl Cannon and I were talking about that, you know, World War II and what we did to force the Japanese to submit. You Know, I mean, we dropped a nuclear bomb. We're obviously not going to go that far. But I do think Trump is serious about this. And it does put, I think the more interesting question was the first one, which was, so are we winding down or are we revving up and, you know, what are we doing here Exactly? And, you know, his response is, I think from his point of view, exactly. Appropriate. Well, it depends on them. They have a decision to make and based on how they decide is, is how we're going to, you know, react. So, but I just think this, this entire thing, whether you agree with the action, the military action or not, it's pretty clear that this is a, this is becoming more, the longer this goes on, the more this is becoming a, I don't want to say an albatross, but it's certainly a headwind that Republicans are now, you know, fighting against. Trump's approval rating is down to 40.9% on a road clear politics average. That is the lowest it's been in his second term. On Iran, it's 39. On the economy, it's 37. And on inflation, it's 33. And that's an average of the polls that includes, you know, some of the more pro Trump polls like Rasmussen have him up closer to 50 and some of the, you know, other polls that have a lot lower than that. And so, and it's been going, you know, it's been, it's been going down. It's been, he's been losing ground on this since he started on February 28th. And we're now, what, five weeks into it, almost six, probably into our sixth week now. So, you know, he needs to get this, he needs to force a resolution here, which is what he's trying to do. But if the Iranians do not cooperate, you know, and, you know, there, there, there's another side to this. This thing could go on for another few weeks, months. And we're seven months away from the election almost to the day. And right now, you know, it's that that's going to make it very, very difficult if he does not come up with some sort of resolution that is, that is favorable to the administration.
- [44:16]
Emily (Podcast Host)
Right. And if we hadn't recovered our crew member, we'd lost more men and women and recovery efforts that can set the timetable back even longer and it can, it can escalate. So there every day could produce more potential tripwires. But what you were talking about kind of reminds me of, like, I think why he's out there is because he's realized his poll numbers are trending in the wrong direction. And so now he's trying to get out in front of the cameras and pick fights with reporters. And the media then keeps taking. They just give him so much to work with. And it's a cycle that we've been stuck in since 2015. I want to put this. Vin Gupta, doctor, he's an MSNow medical analyst who is now saying the president is, quote, exhibiting all the signs of dementia. Says erratic, can't finish sentences, often confused, a logical train of thought, word finding difficulties developing and worsening gradually over time. The president is exhibiting all the signs of dementia. Now, Tom, this version of Donald Trump. Yes. He sent out a particularly bananas tweet over the weekend, which today he explained by saying he said it so that people would pay attention to it. Again, people could probably tell I'm not a particular fan of that tweet or that truth social, but he obviously was acting what he thought was rationally. It wasn't as though this is like dementia riddled Joe Biden out there. And this has been this cycle. It's the same thing every single time. He gets them every single time because they can't help themselves. And I feel like that's exactly what we're watching play out now.
- [45:51]
Tom Bevin
Yeah, there was a, there was a whole spate during his first term. There was a woman, Bandy Lee, I think her name was, who, who wrote a book about this. She was, like, psychoanalyzing all these folks were putting Trump on the couch metaphorically and, you know, psychoanalyzing him and talking about all these, you know, things that were driving him and saying he had, you know, narcissistic personality disorder and all these things. Right. So here we go again. And it's, it's particularly rich given the fact that we just lived through the four years of Joe Biden where the media and the Democrats were, you know, out there every day gaslighting the public, saying, you know, Joe Biden is so sharp. He does more before 9am than all of you people do an entire day. I can't even keep up with him. He's, you know, it's just, it was preposterous. Right. Meanwhile, Trump actually does, by all accounts and by his social media habits. I mean, the guy hardly sleeps. It seems like he's, he's tweeting and posting and working at all hours.
- [46:55]
Emily (Podcast Host)
He reminds me of you.
- [46:57]
Tom Bevin
Well, not quite. I mean, and no, but honestly, I'm, it's, it is astonishing when you think about it. I mean, my dad is 81. He turns 82 this year. And, you know, and I love my dad, and he's actually in great shape physically and mentally. But, you know, by like one o', clock, he's like, I gotta take a nap. Snap time.
- [47:19]
Emily (Podcast Host)
He's not eating enough. McDonald's. He's not eating enough.
- [47:22]
Protester (Emily Phillips)
I know.
- [47:23]
Tom Bevin
And I'm like, how the hell does Trump do this? It's. It is a little crazy, but.
- [47:27]
Protester (Emily Phillips)
But, yeah, you're right.
- [47:28]
Tom Bevin
The Democrats fall for it, the media fall for it, and they somehow think it's, it's like Wiley Coyote. They think they're going to get the Roadrunner. They never do. And they end up looking and sort of playing the fool, and which is why I fully expect if they win the House, they will move to impeach him again.
- [47:46]
Emily (Podcast Host)
Yep.
- [47:47]
Tom Bevin
And, and we'll go, you know, it's like, it's like, you know, you watch like, Jaws and then they make a sequel and it's not nearly as good, and then they make a third one and they make a, you know, it's like Sharknado 49.
- [48:02]
Emily (Podcast Host)
Come on.
- [48:03]
Tom Bevin
Really? Are we still doing this, guys? But they can't help themselves. They. Seriously, he drives them insane. And, you know, obviously he is, he is one of one. And the way that he operates is unlike any president we've ever seen. The language he uses, the, you know, all of it. But that doesn't mean he's, you know, insane or has dementia or. We need to use the 25th Amendment. So I think the Democrats have just that. Yeah, they've just fallen into the trap once again.
- [48:35]
Emily (Podcast Host)
Well, this is a perfect transition to Harry Enton, polling guru over at cnn, raising the issue of exactly how serious the popularity problem is for Democrats. Now, everybody is expecting Democrats to have this advantage in the midterms. The numbers are showing that. I checked the RCP averages today. Now, on the other hand, one average, the RCP average where Democrats aren't doing so hot is an overall, if you look at Republicans and Democrats, the Republican Party, even with a president who's not. Not historically very popular, the Republican Party is still more popular than the Democratic Party. Tom, is that the favorability average? Am I thinking of that correctly?
- [49:22]
Tom Bevin
Yeah, that's the question pollsters ask, do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Party, Republican Party? And they ask it about politics, you know, Donald Trump, J.D. vance, Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries. And so we aggregate all that data. Now, they don't ask that question as often as they asked job approval. So it's, it's not as robust a data set as, as the job approval rating average is. But, but nevertheless, I mean, the data is pretty clear the, and this is the one silver lining for Republicans. But honestly. And this is kind of the paradox, right? Which is so Democrats are, when you look at those numbers, are exceedingly unpopular. I mean, in many ways their brand is as low as it's ever been. However, when they ask that generic ballot question, if the election were held today, who are you going to vote for, Democrat or Republicans? They lead by like six points, right, in our average. So even though voters have a very low opinion of the Democratic Party writ large, when it comes time to pull the lever, they're saying they'd still prefer Democrats to Republicans. And that's, I think, and, and we've seen that, by the way, in a lot of these special elections. And I, I think that's a function of, you know, it's, it's a sort of throw all the bums out. We don't like anybody. But guess what? The bums who are in charge right now are the Republicans and they're the, so they're the ones. If you have, if you are disgruntled about the status, whether it's financial or cultural or whatever it is, there's only one party that you can really punish because they're the one party that controlled the House, Senate and the presidency. And so that is ultimately going to be what voters decide on in November. And so even though the Democratic Party, again, historically low favorable ratings, they're still most likely going to take the House almost certainly and are have an increasing chance of potentially taking the Senate.
- [51:24]
Emily (Podcast Host)
Yeah. Let's talk about the Senate in just one moment because I have some questions for you on that. If you're watching CNN and Harry Enton comes on your screen with this news for Democrats, that should send a chill down the spine of folks over at the dssc. They already know this. They've been dealing with these numbers for a long time. But here's what it looked like when Harrington took to the airwaves of CNN and delivered the news for Democrats with what we have here, we're in month four. So we've got. What do we have here, like eight months? No, like less than seven months. Yeah, seven months until election day. F8.
- [52:03]
Protester (Emily Phillips)
This lead is historically low for Democrats at this point with a Republican president. Because take a look here. I'm taking a look at the average of all the polls. Gem, Dem, generic congressional ballot lead at this point in the cycle with the Republican president, on average, their leads actually slightly less. It's five points. That. That's less than it was back in 2018 when it was eight points and way less than it was during the 2006 cycle when it was 11 points. So, yeah, Democrats are ahead, but they're only ahead by five. With a president whose net approval rating is bordering on minus 20 to minus 30, depending on what polls you look at, you'd make the argument Democrats should be way ahead, and they're just only sort of slightly ahead. I think five points is enough to take back the half. But in the Senate, 5 points is almost certainly not enough if you apply it to the Senate map. Why do I say that? Because. Let's just take a look. GOP would win the Senate with this map. Let's say Republicans only hold onto the states that Trump won by greater than 10 points. That would, in fact, give them the Senate 51 to 49. Why? Because what you would see is you would see that the Democrats would flip North Carolina, they would flip Maine, but Republicans would hold onto Ohio, they'd hold on to Texas, and they'd hold on to Alaska, because Donald Trump won all of those states by greater than 10 points.
- [53:22]
Emily (Podcast Host)
Okay, that's really interesting. And, Tom, you've been doing this through all of those cycles. I want to get your take on it, because I look at Ohio and think, you know, out seven months from now, if. And this is a big if. The Iran war has gas prices where they are, maybe you have more American casualties or maybe even just after another few months. Whatever it is, I look at Ohio, I look at North Carolina, I even look at Nebraska. Susan Collins is very resilient. Very, very resilient. It's early, so you can't take the polls too seriously. You have to have a heaping grain of salt in the Democratic primary as it goes on. But there definitely are some seats on the table that probably Republicans were feeling better about six months ago.
- [54:06]
Tom Bevin
Sure. No, I totally agree. And look, I think Harry's right to a degree. And part of this is the overall dynamic, right? Donald Trump, there used to be the. The sort of benchmark for presidential job approval was 50. If you were under 50% bad news. If you're over 50% good news. Donald Trump broke that model, okay? His first term, when he first took office In January of 2017, his approval rating was 44.3%. Approval rating was 44.2% in our average on January 27, and it went down from there. He Never had over 50% job approval rating his entire first term in office. And yet the 2020 election was pretty close. In 2018, yes, Democrats won 41 seats in the House, but Republicans picked up two seats in the Senate. So, you know, it was a bit of a mixed bag there. So, you know, part of this is Donald Trump and he's got, he's got a floor that has, you know, when, when he's at 45% job approval rating for Donald Trump is, is not terrible. In fact, it's probably pretty good. It's probably closer to, than what we historically think of as, as a 50% mark. The other piece of that is that on the House side, with the gerrymandering that's gone on, there just aren't that many seats at play, I think, or you would have these huge swings. Even if it's a relatively big Democratic night, it might only result in them picking up 15 or 20. They're not going to pick up 60 seats like Republicans did in the 2014 midterms when, when Obama was, or was it 20? What was it? Yeah, no, 20, 2010. So there are some structural things, but I think Harry overall is right. The other thing too is we had, we had, we had on our show today Henry Olson from the Ethic and Public Policy Center. He writes column for the Washington Post. He's a big numbers guy. He's like a Sean Trendy type. And we were talking, he wrote an interesting piece on the fact that, on the Hispanic vote and how that was a huge driver of Trump's success in 2024, but has really fallen back. We've seen now in the polling and also in the special elections and the elections in November that Hispanics have reverted back to sort of their pre2024, you know, where Trump only lost him by five, now he's losing by 25. And that will have impacts across the political landscape, particularly in places like Texas, you know, places like Georgia, North Carolina, to a certain degree, and in some of these, in some of these House races as well. So I, you know, I think Democrats, while they are ahead in the generic ballot, they probably should be further ahead. And some of that is based on what we just talked about, their favorable ratings, not that great. And there's some structural issues there that are preventing them probably from being as high as they have been in the past. And Republicans can take a little bit of solace from that. But I, I still think it's shaping up to be pretty, a pretty rough go for Republicans. I think at this point, if the election were held today, they'd be, they would keep the Senate, but it would be, It'd be a 51, 49 deal. I mean, they'd lose a couple of seats and barely hang on to a majority. So. And if this war continues and gas prices stay high, economic, you know, people are still feeling squeezed, it could easily go the other way. And if the bottom falls out, they will lose in Ohio, they will lose in Alaska, Susan Collins may finally go down in Maine. Texas is probably still a bit of a stretch, but I don't know that they even need Texas to get to if they win those other, other seats.
- [58:06]
Emily (Podcast Host)
Right, yeah, good point. Although once we get past primary season, Democrats are going to have to start answering a whole lot more questions about what their immigration policy is, what their transports policy is. And as Roy to Chairra would point out, they don't have great ANSW answers that are, that are good enough to satisfy a lot of people. You disagree, Tom?
- [58:24]
Tom Bevin
I disagree.
- [58:25]
Emily (Podcast Host)
Gas prices?
- [58:27]
Tom Bevin
Well, no, just Trump hatred. Because this is a base, you know, midterms, a base election. And Democrats are united in turning out, by the way, particularly at the Senate level. Right. These are six year terms, like two thirds of their term is going to occur after Trump is gone. And yet they're also running on, I'm fighting Trump, I'm fighting Trump. We're, you know, so they're getting away with just being unified against Trump without having to espouse policy positions or talk about stuff. They can just say Trump's bad. And that has been enough thus far in a lot of these special elections. So I think they're gonna get away with that one more time. And meanwhile, the Republican Party, you look at some of the enthusiasm numbers, they're down 10, 12, 15 points in terms of their enthusiasm for turning out to vote. Vote.
- [59:14]
Protester (Emily Phillips)
Right.
- [59:15]
Tom Bevin
And the party is, the party is split over the Iran war. I know most Republicans tell pollsters they support it, but certainly you can't, you can't discount the fact that, you know, there, there's a portion of the MAGA base that includes, you know, voices like Megan and others that, you know, they're just not happy about it. And, and that's going to lead to apathy or frustration and people will stay home. And you combine those two things, total unity on the Democratic side opposing Trump and some, some, you know, apathy and, and schisms in the Republican base. And that's a, that's a perfect storm of disaster for Republicans.
- [59:56]
Emily (Podcast Host)
Yeah, I was going to ask my last question to you about that. Exactly, Tom. There's some polling and you're well aware of this, you just referenced it that well, it shows some people. This is the Newsweek article. We can throw, throw the tear sheet up on the screen. Well, if you're maga, you self identify as maga, you are generally hanging in there. With Donald Trump, it's much more split among the average Republican voter. One of the things I'm hearing anecdotally, and I'm curious if we have any evidence of this in the polls yet, even though it's just been about a month, is there's a patience threshold among Republican voters who do trust Trump. They like his foreign policy instincts. They thought maybe this was a two week bombing run, two week air campaign. And there is probably a point at which their patience wears thin. I don't know if you've been hearing that anecdotally. I've heard that anecdotally that people are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. They loved that he said no new wars, but they trust because he executed Venezuela in a way they liked. He executed Midnight Hammer in a way that they liked and they generally liked his first term foreign policy. They're willing to give them a little leash on this. I don't know if it's too early to see that show up in the polling though, Tom.
- [61:08]
Tom Bevin
No, we are seeing it in the polling and I think that's exactly right. You know, Democrats were opposed to this from the beginning because it's Donald Trump and they're, and they're always going to be opposed, you know, no matter what. Independents were, you know, underwater, meaning more disapproved than approved. And that has widened. But certainly Trump has lost some altitude, you know, a little bit with Republicans. And if you go look at our Rickler politics average again, it's five or six weeks worth of data starting, you know, February 28th when the bombing started to now and it's a pretty steady slow decline in the approval rating, an increase in the disapproval rating and that's driven by independents, but also by Republicans. Look, Trump, when this first started, Trump said this would be four to six weeks. And I think for the, you know, hardcore maga, they're with him, ride or die, you know, whatever. But for the other folks who are Republicans and, and like Trump and voted for Trump but are skeptical of, of this, yes, they're willing to hang with him for four to six weeks. If it goes beyond that, I think. And we're already seeing some slippage if this goes 8 weeks, 10 weeks, 12 weeks or beyond. I think you will start to see that number erode significantly and, and that'll affect his overall job approval rating. Probably push him under 40 for the first time. His all time low in our average in his first term was in December of 2017. He was at 37.4%. So that is his all time low and that was right before they passed his tax cut and then he rebounded back into the 40s. So you know, he's, he's getting down near there now. But I, I think if this goes on, you will see that number go into the 30s and maybe go reach a new low, which would be obviously not good news for, for Republicans.
- [63:08]
Emily (Podcast Host)
Fascinating. Well, Tom Bevin is the co founder and president of Real Clear Politics. He's a co host of Real Clear Politics on Sirius XM channel 111, the Megan Kelly Channel. Tom, absolute pleasure to have you back. Thank you for doing it.
- [63:21]
Tom Bevin
So good to be with you. Thanks Emily.
- [63:23]
Emily (Podcast Host)
Cheers.
- [63:24]
Tom Bevin
Cheers.
- [63:26]
Emily (Podcast Host)
Well, since Tom just went out on a boozy note, it's again a perfect transition because if you are looking to make small shifts that make a huge difference and maybe you're Tom Bevin, you should have popped zbiotics before you started drinking. It does make a big difference. It, it kind of sounds counterintuitive, right? But that means planning ahead. And if you do think and you plan ahead before you lose your capacity to plan for anything, you can actually just live in the moment. You can chill, you can have a few drinks. It really does help. And if you take zebiotics, pre alcohol, it's literally called pre alcohol. So you can't forget. And it's better if you take it before you again lose your capacity to remember these things. If you take it before you start drinking. It's the world's first genetically engineered probiotic. So it's created by PhD scientists to tackle those rough mornings. Alcohol creates a toxic byproduct in the gut and that buildup causes rough days. But pre alcohol actually produces an enzyme to break it down, helps your body break it down. You can make it your first drink, you can drink responsibly and then you can even feel your best tomorrow, the next day. How nice is that? You can have your cake and eat it. 2. You can reclaim your mornings. Go ahead, reclaim them. They're there for the taking. Now I'm not gonna lie, I was actually a bit on the fence as many of you may be about pre alcohol. It's this extra step, does it actually work? But I have have taken it several times and it does. It does definitely help. You can have some wine with dinner. Give it a shot. You're not gonna wake up quite as groggy. Let's put it that way. You don't need me to describe it because you all know what that's like. So let's be real. Usually a Friday night out means a Saturday morning spent canceling a workout class. But since I started, I started incorporating pre alcohol my glass of wine. It does not disrupt my morning flow. So remember to head to zebiotics.com afterparty and use the code AFTERPARTY at checkout for 15 off. I'm Kiana, and I leveled up my business with Shopify. Once I figured out that Shopify was a thing, I never turned back. I can create a site with my eyes closed. Shopify thinks ahead of us, you know, and it thinks about the customer more than anything. Every day I'm thinking about some other new business, but Shopify is doing it to me because it's so easy to use. It's like I can't stop if I'm addicted.
- [65:58]
Tom Bevin
Start your free trial@shopify.com so good, so good, so good.
- [66:04]
Emily (Podcast Host)
New markdowns up to 70% off are at Nordstrom Rack stores now. And that means so many new reasons to rack because I always find something amazing. Just so many good brands because there's always something new. Join the Nordy club to unlock exclusive discounts. Shop new arrivals first and more. Plus, buy online and pick up at your favorite rack store for free. Great brands, great prices. That's why you rack. All right, we're going to close out the show tonight with a really sad but instructive case study in how the media so often botches stories about faith. And this one is related to Savannah Guthrie. Now, Savannah Guthrie put out a almost haunting Easter message. An Easter video message. And what we're going to do is play the video. We're going to play a montage from the video. Essentially, people had different opinions on this video. Savannah Guthrie returned tearfully to work on the Today show this morning, about three months after her mother, Nancy Guthrie, went missing. And it's been a long time in Arizona. So Savannah Guthrie came back and was holding down the fort at the Today show this morning. She teared up. Understandable. The night before she returned, she put out this Easter message that was controversial. People thought it was a little bit of an odd choice. But I think a lot of the people who felt that way and were weighing in on it got their cues, as is understandable, from some of the media coverage before they watched the video. Or maybe they didn't even even watch the full video, to be honest. So let's take a look at the video and I'll tell you a little bit about how the media covered it.
- [67:53]
Coop Sleepgoods Advertiser
We celebrate today the promise of a new life that never ends in death. But standing here today, I have to tell you there are moments in which that that promise seems irretrievably far away. In my own season of trial, I have wondered, I have questioned whether Jesus really ever experienced this particular wound that I feel, this grievous and uniquely cruel injury of not knowing. On the cross he cried out, my God, my God, why have you forsaken me? That is the anguished cry of someone who does not know the answers in the grave. Does his agony seem indefinite to him, that torment of uncertainty, the way indefinite pain can feel eternal? Perhaps he did know this feeling after all. Perhaps this is too dark a message to share on Easter morning. But I have long believed that we miss out out on fully celebrating resurrection if we do not acknowledge the feelings of loss, pain, and yes, death. It is the darkness that makes this morning's light so magnificent, so blindingly beautiful. It is all the brighter because it is so desperately needed.
- [69:21]
Emily (Podcast Host)
Well, amen. Savannah Guthrie knows that if her mother believed in Jesus as we believe her mother did, that's something I should have mentioned before queuing up the clip. If you've been following the Nancy Guthrie story, we've heard over and over again about Nancy Guthrie's faith and Savannah Guthrie, the light she was talking about, the light of Easter that does make the darkness more bearable is that she hopefully will see her mother again. Now Variety posted. This is F12. They said they posted an article and in posting their coverage of this on X, I just want you to compare what they said with what you just watched in full. So Variety writes. Savannah Guthrie says she's quote, questioned whether Jesus really ever experienced this particular wound that I feel, unquote, in an emotional Easter Sunday message. Quote, we celebrate today the promise of a new life that never ends in death. But standing here today, I have to tell you there are moments in which that promise seems irretrievably far away, when life itself seems far harder than death. These moments of deep disappointment with God, the feeling of utter abandonment. For most of us, there will come a time in our life when these feelings hold sway. Variety cuts it off there, knowing damn well that they just framed what happened for people on X who are just going to see that their headline, which should Sum up. That's what headlines do, should, should sum up the meat of the story. Their headline leaves out the entire second part of the video where Savannah Guthrie talks about the light making the light making the darkness bearable, and just projects to everyone that after this enormous trauma, Savannah Guthrie is basically questioning her faith and has lost her faith. It's incredibly misleading because if anything, the video was a vigorous embrace of her faith. And this was just a classic case study in the media, willfully misleading their readers, doing a complete disservice to their readers. Whether you are a militant atheist or not, if you saw that post, you came away with a completely different understanding of what Savannah Guthrie said. And now millions of people around the country are following this case really closely and the idea that, that it would nudge someone to question their faith and lose their faith. Savannah Guthrie was openly talking about it, making her question her faith and making her question whether God himself knew this particular pain. As she mentioned, and I think everybody knows that's fully, fully understandable. The message that Variety left with people, left people with was that faith was not enough, that Savannah Guthrie had decided. There's, there's, they're, they're implying to their audience that this very high profile figure who suffered a very high profile personal, intimate trauma and still is, has decided the Gospels are not enough on Easter. So on Easter, Variety takes that message and posts basically just the entire first half of the message. That is the predicate for the second half of the message, right? It's not like this one half was totally disconnected from the other half. She was building to a conclusion and they just took it away. They stopped the story right in the middle. Now, I said it was willful. It's hard to believe it wasn't. But actually, to steel man myself, there are just a lot of journalists who maybe thought the. I could see them believing. The takeaway from that is Savannah Guthrie questioning, quote, whether Jesus really ever experienced this particular wound and not realizing that what she went on to say undermined that because maybe they didn't think hard about it or maybe they fully don't understand what Easter means to Christians. Hard to believe. It's not willful, because if you spend a minute thinking about it before you hit publish to people around the world, it's impossible to imagine you wouldn't come to the conclusion that the second half was contingent on the first half. All that is to say, this is just a good case study that's relatively representative of how you often see journalists struggle with faith. Very famously, Dean McKay of the New York Times, who's the executive editor of the New York Times in 2016, when they completely missed the 2016 election. They were having a struggle session in the newsroom after Trump defeated Hillary Clinton. And he very famously, in the aftermath when there was this brief period of introspection, said, we don't get religion. And this was supposed to be the moment where the media paused, got better, improved, rebuilt trust with readers and listeners and viewers, but it never really stuck. There are probably a couple of people who are doing better. But industry wide, there's a reason. It's not just religion, it's issues in general that trust in media continues to plummet. Record low, tied for a record low when Gallup came out with its numbers last October. All these years afterwards, they still don't get religion, clearly and consistently so. Again, I know it's a little example, but this was literally on Easter with one of the most high profile people in media, one of the most high profile crime stories of the decade so far. And it was an egregious misrepresentation. So I thought it was worth correcting the record on that and using it as a case study, a window into how these things get botched and distorted and make their way around the world with so little representation of what was actually said in huge cases, huge stories that get messed up like this. So I'll leave it there for this evening. Excited to be back on Wednesday with all of you 9 00pm live. No problem if you catch up afterwards. Either way, just subscribe. Please do subscribe on the YouTube channel. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. That helps us do the show and stay independent. Thank you. Thank you. We'll be back like I said, on Wednesday with more See you then.
- [76:27]
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