How About That Blizzard?

Summary

Podcast Summary

Podcast: All Of It
Host: Alison Stewart (WNYC)
Episode: How About That Blizzard?
Date: January 26, 2026

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Main Theme

This episode focuses on New York City’s recent major snowstorm, which dropped around 10 inches of snow in Central Park. Host Alison Stewart is joined by John Homnick, meteorologist and founder of New York Metro Weather, to analyze the storm, discuss the forecasting process, explain the science behind the snow and cold, and share how New Yorkers experienced the event. The conversation also touches on meteorology’s future, weather modeling (including AI’s influence), and listener stories from the city’s big snow day.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Storm Recap and Surprises

• The snowstorm delivered as forecasted for NYC, bringing 10 inches to Central Park, with totals fitting the 6 to 12-inch predictions shared earlier in the week.
• John Homnick emphasizes that, despite early hype forecasting up to 30 inches, the reality matched more moderate expert predictions.

  “One takeaway is we don’t use weather apps for forecasts six days in advance snowfall.”
  —John Homnick [02:42]

• New England’s northern stretch saw less snow than expected due to colder air suppressing the storm southward.
• For NYC, this was the first 10+ inch snowfall since 2021, and only the second or third such storm since 2016.

  “It’s in the middle in terms of the history of New York’s big snowstorms. It’s not an all timer, but it was… above what we’ve gotten the last couple of winters, that’s for sure.”
  —John Homnick [04:28]

2. Atmospheric Science Behind the Blizzard

• The widespread cold was attributed to an “anomalous high latitude block”—a powerful high-pressure area over the Arctic/Greenland region, which pushed Arctic air into the U.S.
• Moisture from Baja California met the Arctic chill, creating a significant precipitation boundary.

  “When you have a very strong high-pressure block up there, it takes all that air that typically resides there and dislodges it somewhere else. And that happens to be towards us.”
  —John Homnick [05:42]

• This high latitude block is persistent, indicating more chances for winter storms in the coming weeks.

  “We’re not out of the woods yet at all when it comes to winter weather.”
  —John Homnick [06:58]

• Another potential nor’easter may be brewing for the upcoming weekend, with the models divided.

3. Experiencing the Storm: Community Stories

Alison invites listeners to share their snow day experiences:

• Christian (Brooklyn): Spent the day keeping a small shelter running during the ‘deep code blue’, praised city services for keeping infrastructure open. [07:45]
• Mars (Brooklyn): Played Monopoly, cooked coconut milk salmon, cared for her dog, and used the storm as a time to relax. [14:35]
• Zeke (Park Slope): Used the snow day for housecleaning, bush rug steaming, pepper roasting, and okra pickling instead of going outside. [19:15]
• Stella (Upper West Side): Reorganized closets with her husband, then rewarded themselves with sledding and watching the neighborhood enjoy Central Park’s hills. [20:33]
• Listeners via text: Shared stories of running in a blizzard, shopping at Trader Joe's (“like the zombie apocalypse”), finishing puzzles, and engaging in comfort cooking.

4. Weather Phenomena Explained

• Difference between sleet, freezing rain, and hail:

  “Hail occurs in supercell thunderstorms… sleet is a snowflake that melts then refreezes before it reaches the ground, becoming an ice pellet; freezing rain is rain that freezes on contact with freezing surfaces.”
  —John Homnick [09:02-10:58]

• Sleet “compacts the snow down from this beautiful fluffy snow to the snow that had this layer of sort of caked up ice on top of it.” [12:07]
• Sleet is John’s “least favorite precipitation type.” [12:07]

5. Meteorology & Forecasting Process

• Forecasting starts with current observations (satellite, radar), then uses weather models to simulate outcomes.
• “Meteorologists really are predicting the future,” but uncertainty grows rapidly beyond a few days.

  “A lot of meteorology is understanding what’s going on right now first and then looking at those observations and using models as guidance…”
  —John Homnick [13:16]

• Weather models are more precise in the short range (1-3 days) but become “increasingly chaotic” further out.

6. Becoming a Meteorologist and NYC’s Weather Community

• John fostered his love of weather growing up in Brooklyn during memorable storms (Blizzard of ’96, President’s Day 2003).
• Inspiration from the film Twister and early internet weather forums. [17:02]
• Started NYC Metro Weather as a high school blog; Hurricane Sandy was the catalyst for significant public interest.
• New Yorkers, he notes, “want the details,” not just headline numbers. [18:05]

7. Weather Ratings: The System & Its Meaning

• John’s daily “weather rating” is a comfort index (10/10 = perfect); based on day-to-day livability, not just meteorological conditions.
• A “1 out of 10” means high impact and discomfort, while fall days often rate higher for comfort. [22:02]

8. The Future: AI, Budgets, and the Next Storm

• AI and machine learning are improving medium-range forecasts by learning from historical errors and patterns.

  “My inclination is that these models are only going to get better when paired with the physical models that we already have.”
  —John Homnick [23:19]

• Government funding (such as for NOAA) is essential for data, forecasting infrastructure, and model improvements. Cuts would have “a terribly negative impact.” [24:24]
• Cautions against relying on weather apps or hype social media accounts for extreme predictions; recommends following science-based sources for reliable updates—especially with another potential storm brewing for the weekend. [25:20]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On early snow forecast hype:

  “One takeaway is we don’t use weather apps for forecasts six days in advance snowfall.”
  —John Homnick [02:42]

• On sleet:

  “I always joke around that sleet is my least favorite precipitation type. I think it has very few redeeming qualities.”
  —John Homnick [13:03]

• On New Yorkers and weather:

  “It was the first time that I realized that New Yorkers in particular, they want the details. They’re interested in the science. They want to know what’s going on.”
  —John Homnick [18:05]

• On AI in meteorology:

  “I suspect that the next decade we will see weather prediction improve, specifically in like the four or five day time frame where I think accuracy could go way up.”
  —John Homnick [23:19]

• On funding cuts:

  “It would be a nightmare… It would negatively impact forecasting, the ability to get information to people and the ability for us to continue to get better at this.”
  —John Homnick [24:24]

• Community spirit in snow:

  “New York City is a really special place when it snows… I really enjoyed watching everyone have such a good time… falling on a weekend made it a little better too.”
  —John Homnick [03:59]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:29 — Introduction and show overview
• 02:00 — John Homnick joins; storm recap
• 03:21 — Impact and historical context of the storm
• 05:42 — Explaining the cold pattern and atmospheric science
• 07:40 — Listener Christian’s shelter story
• 09:02 — Sleet, freezing rain, and hail explained
• 12:07 — Sleet’s impact on snow and roads
• 13:16 — Meteorology and how forecasting works
• 17:02 — John’s personal path to meteorology
• 18:05 — Growth of NYC Metro Weather post-Hurricane Sandy
• 19:15 — Listener Zeke’s snow day productivity
• 20:33 — Listener Stella’s closet cleaning and sledding
• 21:19 — Advice for snow day clothing
• 22:02 — Weather rating system
• 23:19 — AI and the future of weather forecasting
• 24:24 — Impact of governmental budget cuts on forecasting
• 25:20 — Next week’s forecast; caution against app-based predictions
• 26:17 — Episode close and thank yous

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Tone and Language

Conversation is warm, detailed, and often playful. John Homnick combines approachable scientific explanations with local pride and humor, while Alison Stewart is engaging and community-focused, bringing in listener voices and fostering a sense of shared experience.

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Takeaways

• NYC’s latest snowstorm was significant but manageable; forecasts were accurate thanks to atmospheric patterns and skilled interpretation, not just weather apps.
• The joy, resourcefulness, and resilience of New Yorkers come through in weather, knitting together science, community, and daily life.
• Meteorology is evolving, with AI promising improved medium-range forecasting—provided critical public funding continues.
• Always check trusted, science-based sources for weather information—especially when the next big nor’easter may be just around the corner.

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For more, follow @NYCMetroWeather or tune in to WNYC’s All Of It.

Transcript

[WNYC Announcer]

All of it is supported by Progressive Insurance. You chose to hit play on this podcast today. Smart Choice. Make another smart choice with Auto Quote Explorer to compare rates for multiple car insurance companies all at once. Try [e-mail] Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates not available in all states or situations. Prices vary based on how you buy.

[Alison Stewart]

This is all of It. I'm Alison Stewart live from the WNYC studio in soho. I made it. Thanks for spending part of your day with us. I'm glad you are here on today's show. Becky Robison is the author of the book My Parents Are Dead, what Now? And she joins us now to talk a little bit about the process of dealing with all that stuff, making it a little bit more manageable. And if you didn't get a chance to attend our sold out get lit with all of it book club conversation last week, we are bringing it to the radio. Today. You'll hear Ocean Vuong talk about his new novel Emperor of Gladness, as well as a live performance from musician Quinn Christofferson. That's the plan. So let's get this started with snow. New York City's monster snowstorm delivered as promised over the weekend with 10 inches of snowfall measured in Central Park. John Homneck is the meteorologist behind the popular social media account New York Metro Weather, where he breaks down forecasts and weather science and easy to understand posts. He often posts what kind of weather the day would be like, like 10 being the highest, the most perfect day, it would be a 10. Yesterday, John gave the weather a 1 out of 10 and said the vibes were frozen. He's here with us now to recap yesterday's storm. Hey John, good morning.

[John Homnick]

How are you doing today?

[Alison Stewart]

I am doing fine. How are you doing? I should ask.

[John Homnick]

I am, I am jazzed up on coffee right now, otherwise exhausted. But you know, it's, it's been a, a long week and I think we have a stretch of active weather coming up. So I'm, I'm ready for it.

[Alison Stewart]

All right, listeners, we want to hear from you. How did you spend yesterday's big snow day? Did you go sledding? Did you stay inside? Do you have questions about the storm or meteorology in general from the man behind New York Weather, Metro Weather? Call or text us now. 2124-3396-9221-2433. WNYC. Okay, what is your main takeaway from yesterday's storm?

[John Homnick]

Yeah, yesterday ended up pretty close to forecast, right? I feel like early on there were some, some crazy Hype about the possibility of 30 inches and everyone's app was going crazy. So one takeaway is we don't use weather apps for forecasts six days in advance snowfall. But the other takeaway is it ended up really within the line of forecast, within 6 to 12 inches. And I think the storm was, was really pinned down five, six days in advance as being a potential six to 12 inch snowstorm. So I thought the forecast were really good. I thought the lead time was really good. And I got to be honest with you, it was really fun to see New York City in the snow, enjoying an actual snowstorm. It feels like it's been forever.

[Alison Stewart]

Were there any surprises outside of our area?

[John Homnick]

The storm, the northward extent of the storm was a little weak up in New England, so way up in Vermont, New Hampshire, they were expecting 15 plus inches and a lot of areas only ended up with 8 to 10. So I think the northward extent, the air was really cold as I'm sure everyone was able to figure out yesterday. And so that cold kind of pressed the storm a little further south up there. But otherwise everything went pretty much according to plan, which is, which is pretty rare these days. It was nice to be able to enjoy it and not worry too much minute to minute about the forecast.

[Alison Stewart]

You said you enjoyed it. What did you enjoy about it?

[John Homnick]

New York City is a really special place when it snows and I, I think I, I really enjoyed watching everyone have such a good time. You know, enjoy the, enjoy the snow, enjoy the, the spirit of the city during these snowstorms. People were sledding, taking their, their pets out to enjoy it. And falling on a weekend made it a little better too. A little less stressful for a lot of people. It was really nice to see everyone having so much fun.

[Alison Stewart]

How did the storm rank in terms of New York's recent history with storms?

[John Homnick]

I think it's going to, we're waiting for like the actual final snow and sleet total to come in. Usually that comes in around early afternoon today from the National Weather Service, but I would say it ranks in the middle of the last couple of years. You know, I think it's been a while since we've had 10 inches. Believe it was 2021. I'll have to fact check myself on that was the last storm that was 10 inches or more and going back a decade, it's only our second or third 10 inch plus storm since 2016, which is a long time ago. So it's, it's in the middle in terms of the history of New York's big snowstorms. It's not an all timer, but it was pretty consistently above what we've gotten the last couple of winters, that's for sure.

[Alison Stewart]

Listeners, we want to hear from you. How'd you spend yesterday's big snow day? Did you go sledding? Did you stay inside? Or do you have questions about storm? I'm speaking with John Homnick, who runs the account New York Metro Weather, and we are taking your calls. Our Phone number is 2124-3396-9221-2433. WNYC. The winter conditions and the extreme cold has stretched from Texas to Maine. What has caused so much of the country to get so cold?

[John Homnick]

Yeah, this is a really unique situation where we have a very anomalous pattern evolving across multiple parts of the world. The main thing that has affected us is something called a high latitude block. And it sounds like a really fancy term, but what it really just is, is a term to describe an anomalously strong high pressure over the high latitudes. So think about Greenland or Alaska or the Arctic. And when you have a very strong high pressure, high pressure block up there, it takes all that air that typically resides there and dislodges it somewhere else. And that happens to be towards us. So we had this huge Arctic high pressure coming down straight from, from the North Pole, essentially. And we timed it with moisture trying to come out of the Baja of California and push up into that Arctic air. And that created this boundary where you had moisture and lift. So you were getting precipitation and you had really cold air pressing down because of what's going on in places like Alaska, Greenland and the Arctic Circle. And so the combination of those two things led to a unbelievably large stretch of area getting involved in winter precipitation. And not to spoil anything, but that high latitude block is still there, it still exists. And we're not out of the woods yet at all when it comes to winter weather.

[Alison Stewart]

Oh, tell me more.

[John Homnick]

Yeah, well, there's a, you know, upcoming this weekend. We're watching the potential for another storm. The models are all over the place, but this one looks like a little bit more of a traditional coastal storm nor'. Easter. It's one of those boomer bus scenarios where it's either going to be nothing or a whole lot. And we're still in the very early stages of it, but with that, that block still there, a lot of Arctic air around the pattern is pretty volatile. And so we'll be watching that closely. And I suspect that we'll start to hear more and more buzz about that in the coming days.

[Alison Stewart]

Let's take a couple of calls. This is Christian calling in from Brooklyn. Hey, Christian, thanks for making the time to call. All of it.

[Caller]

Hey, how's it going? Thanks for taking my call.

[Alison Stewart]

Sure thing.

[Caller]

You asked how folks spent the day yesterday. I run a small shelter, and because of the MTA and the sanitation crews out there, I was able to get to my site when staff could not secure the site. So I was working yesterday. We operate, you know, 24, 7, 365. And, you know, we've been in a deep code blue for the past week. So if people, if. If we can't. If we have to be open, we have to serve people. So that's what I did yesterday. What did you do yesterday?

[Alison Stewart]

What did I do yesterday? Well, first of all. First of all, Christian, thank you for the work that you did. What did I do yesterday? I. I battened down the hatches, as they say in our backyard. I got a little worried. I thought an umbrella was going to go over, so I marched out, lashed it down, took care of it. Everybody was safe. This says went to the movies and barely managed to get there. After I went to Trader Joe's and it looked like the zombie apocalypse. Empty shelves everywhere. This is an interesting question for you, John. It says, what's the difference between sleet and freezing rain?

[John Homnick]

Great question. So there's the. The big three confusion. Precipitation types, as I like to call them, are sleet, hail, and freezing rain.

[Alison Stewart]

Right.

[John Homnick]

So in. In. In the wintertime, a lot of people will refer to sleet as hail because that's what they know an ice pellet to be.

[Alison Stewart]

Right.

[John Homnick]

So I'll take us through a very sort of rudimentary version of. Of what the three are. So I'm going to separate hail out right away because hail occurs in supercell thunderstorms. Hail is an ice pellet that forms in the updraft of a thunderstorm. So the way to think about this is when you see those big puffy cumulonimbus clouds in the summertime, inside of there is actually this violent process going on, right? Where there's all this upward motion. And so the ice particles in there collect and they form hail. The stronger the updraft, the longer that upward motion can fight gravity and keep the hailstone bouncing around up there. So the bigger storms have bigger hail. Right. Eventually the hail becomes too heavy and gravity winds and it falls. But the stronger storms have bigger hail. That's what hail is sleet and freezing rain are two totally different things. And the way to think about sleep is that there is a warm layer between where we are right here and the cloud where the snow is falling from. So if you think of the atmosphere in layers like a cake, top layer of the cake will be where the, where the snow falls out of the cloud and that snowflake falls down and it falls through this layer of air that happens to be warmer than freezing. So that snowflake melts and then as it keeps on falling down now as a raindrop, it refreezes into an ice pellet as it gets down to the surface here, which is, which is colder. So that's how you get sleep. And freezing rain occurs when that warm layer is just wider. So the snowflake melts. It doesn't have time to refreeze into an ice pellet. So it hits the ground as rain, but then the ground is so cold that it freezes on the surface that it lands on. So hopefully that was a little bit of a quick explainer of the difference between those three confusing precipitation types.

[Alison Stewart]

You're listening to John Homnock, who runs the account count New York Metro weather, and we're taking your calls. How did you spend yesterday's big snow day? How are we spending today's big snow day? Did you go sledding? Did you stay inside? Do you have questions about the storm? Our number is 2124-3396-9221-2433. WNYC this text says we got more than 14 inches in Washington Heights and it is snowing now. And I looked at the window and yes, it is snowing right now.

[John Homnick]

Yes, it is.

[Alison Stewart]

This is a great text. It says, I went on a run yesterday morning and got interviewed by the. For being that crazy person running in a blizzard. I may not get over them calling me a transplant, despite me having been here 20 years longer than I've lived anywhere else. When the precipitation switched over like mid afternoon, you started, you like hearing like the pulse on my, on my, my window. Has that changed the conditions on the ground? Because our runner, I have to imagine, wouldn't be out there if it were sleeting.

[John Homnick]

Yeah. So it, it creates this. Sleet is more dense obviously, and heavier. Right. So first of all, it compacts the snow down. Snow is a snow accumulation. When, when snow, when it's just pure snow is a, is a beautiful, intricate process where you know, the snowflakes are all. It looks just like this white blanket. But if you really stare at it, it's all these accumulated snowflakes, right when sleet falls, it kind of just crushes everything so that top layer of snow just gets compacted into this icy caked part on top of the snow. And road conditions get pretty bad too. I mean, it was, it was below freezing at the surface yesterday with some, a lot of places were in the middle teens, 16, 17 degrees. So it created a very, very icy, slippery condition across the entire area and compacted the snow down from this beautiful fluffy snow to the snow that had this layer of sort of kicked up ice on top of it. I always joke around that sleet is my least favorite precipitation type. I think it has very few redeeming qualities.

[Alison Stewart]

This is the question. It says, how do meteorologists know when, where a storm is going to form? And how do they know how much moisture the storm will carry before it is even formed?

[John Homnick]

Great question. Someone said to me a few days ago that meteorologists really are predicting the future. And I think that couldn't be more true. Luckily, we have some amazing tools at our disposal. A lot of meteorology starts with observing what's going on right now and what is happened in the last couple of days and hours. So we look at a lot of satellite imagery, radar observations across the world, across the country. And then the beauty of having weather models as guidance is weather models are essentially taking those current conditions and then simulating the physical processes with numerical equations. But they just give us an idea, right? So we can start to formulate an idea of, based on what we see on satellite and radar and with the observations, what the models say and help us guide that forecast forward. There still is a lot of inherent uncertainty. Right. If you think about a weather model for today, it'll probably be pretty accurate because you're starting the simulation today. But as you get out to six, seven, eight days in advance, those simulations become increasingly chaotic. And so we're still working on getting better at those forecasts in the extended range. But a lot of meteorology is understanding what's going on right now first and then looking at those observations and using models as guidance to project what will happen from here.

[Alison Stewart]

Let's talk to Mars in Brooklyn. Hey, Mars, thanks for calling, all of it. You're on the air.

[WNYC Announcer]

Hey, how's it going?

[Alison Stewart]

Doing okay.

[WNYC Announcer]

All right, cool. Yeah, I spent the time just like playing a lot of games like, like Monopoly, which I haven't played since I was like 10 years old. I'm a massage therapist, so I had gotten so many calls of people wanting to get massages but there's no way I was going to do that. And then trying to get my dog to do whatever she need to do. Is this like impossible? But it was just such a nice time, honestly, to just have a reprieve and have an excuse in a way to just chill. So I don't know. That's all I did.

[Alison Stewart]

Sounds and cooked and cooked. Oh, what'd you cook?

[WNYC Announcer]

Oh my gosh. I made a salmon with coconut milk sauteed with like onions and, and peppers and all sorts of stuff on there. Was just great. I've never made it before, so.

[Alison Stewart]

Sounds good.

[WNYC Announcer]

I made a good time to be able to do nothing.

[Alison Stewart]

Yeah, I made ground ground chicken chili. It was pretty good. What'd you make, John? Did you make anything?

[John Homnick]

I did not make anything. I was working all day. I, I was just on a coffee diet really yesterday. It's kind of funny because I, you know, when, when you, these storms, it almost feels like the job isn't over for me until the last flake falls. Like, you know, you want to keep everyone informed on what's happening and try to share in the experience as much. But it's still the grind of it is not over until the storm pulls away.

[Alison Stewart]

I'm speaking to John Homnick who runs the account New York Metro Weather and we're taking your calls. How did you spend yesterday's big snow? Did you go sledding? Did you stay inside? Did you cook? Or do you have questions about the storm? Give us a call or text us at 212-4339-692202-12433 wnyc. We'll have more after a real quick break. You are listening to all of it on wnyc. I'm Alison Stewart and my guest is John Homnick who runs the account New York Metro Weather. We are talking about the big snowstorm and we got a text for you, John. It said, what made you decide to become a weatherman and at what age?

[John Homnick]

Oh, good question. I, I've always, thanks for the question, by the way. I've always been interested in the weather. I mean, going back as far as I can remember, I grew up on the south shore of Brooklyn and Mill Basin and I just remember the snowstorms. I was lucky enough to grow up with Blizzard 96 and President's Day Storm in 2003 and so those storms fascinated me. But then really the, the thunderstorms in the summer and the movie Twister was what, what got me. And, and from there it was just I was born at a fortunate time where as I was growing up and. And going into school, I was kind of the dawn and the explosion of the Internet, right. So I was on all the weather discussion forums and talking to people and utilizing the communication resources that I had. So I've always been really, really into it. And for me, it's been the one thing that has been a constant in my whole life. It's just my interest in the weather. Going back as far as I can remember.

[Alison Stewart]

New York metro weather. It started as a blog. When did you start to notice people were paying attention to your blog and your social media posts?

[John Homnick]

Pretty early on. I mean, I was young, obviously. I started the blog in high school, which is crazy to think about, right? Like on blogspot.com I don't know if you remember that, but. But I. There was some comments and interaction early on, and even the young John was able to recognize this is really cool and people are really interested in this. But Hurricane Sandy was the big one. We were just kind of growing our social media presence at that point off of the blog and just an explosion of interest in it. And I think people really took an interest to the briefings and the detailed information. It was the first time that I realized that New Yorkers in particular, they want the details. They're interested in the science. They want to know what's going on. Right. So with that storm affecting New York and New Jersey so much, it really, the light bulb went off for me that there was an area, an opening for this, where people wanted to communicate on a personal level with the weather guy or girl and be able to understand what's driving the forecast and how it all works.

[Alison Stewart]

Let's talk to a couple of people who got a lot done yesterday. First, let's start with Zeke, who is calling in from Park Slope. Hey, Zeke, what's going on?

[John Homnick]

Hey, Alison.

[Caller]

First, I want to say thank you. I gotta tell you, the last time I called you was about how do you create a village. Okay. Episode. And I was on that phone and I shared that with so many friends. Everybody loved the time. Yeah, it was great because you have a whole fan base. But so yesterday what I did is I have a bush oriental rug. I was cleaning them, I was steaming them with my bissell. Then I'm in the process today. Now as I'm doing some business cleaning my refrigerator, wiping it all down, cleaning it out inside. And then I was roasting peppers. Yesterday, I'm gonna be pickling some okra and freezing okra. And I've Got a whole list of kitchen base work and house cleaning I'm going to be doing. I wanted to go outside, but I've like, why bother? I know what snow looks like, so I love it. And you know, I have to say, I wish it happened a bit more for kids because anyone I grew up freaking kind of snow days, right? That you go out sledding today, it's like, my God, it's not enough.

[Alison Stewart]

Zeke, thanks so much. Click those things off your to do list. I love it. Let's talk to Stella, who's calling from the Upper west side. Hi, Stella. Thanks for calling, all of it. You were busy as well, I can see.

[WNYC Announcer]

Yes, thanks for having me on the show. My husband and I emptied out three or four of our closets and just went through a bunch of stuff to reorganize and we really made a dent. We have a big pile of things that we need to donate once it's a little bit easier to get them to a donation site. And we rewarded ourselves with a trip out to Central park and watched some people ski and snowboard and sled down the great hill near our house and found some cardboard and went sledding ourselves.

[Alison Stewart]

Oh, that sounds like a great day. Thanks so much for calling in. Hey, John, I wanted to ask you, for people who do want to go out in the snow and do want to sled, what advice would you give them in terms of, of what they should wear?

[John Homnick]

Oh, great question. I'm, I'm a big snow pants person. Like, I ski and like to go hit slopes. So. So I've got all that gear and when I go sledding, I just wear snow pants. Right. Like you want. I've seen some videos that had me very concerned yesterday of people in shorts and jeans. And I was like, I don't know why you would do that, but I'm a big snow pants person. If you don't have those just like sweatpants and a big jacket and boots that don't let the snow get in because it gets very uncomfortable very quickly when you have snow in your shoes.

[Alison Stewart]

Every day you post a weather rating. Yesterday it was 1 out of 10. Today you're at 3 out of 10. How does your weather, weather rating system work?

[John Homnick]

Yeah, so that's a little bit of a secret I can't totally reveal, but I would say this. I, I think New Yorkers in particular, they want to know, is the weather going to impact my day to day in a negative way? Can I go to happy hour? Can I go to work? What do I need to wear. Is it going to be annoying? Is it going to be uncomfortable? So that's what I'm thinking about when I'm doing these weather ratings. And I totally understand there's people that are like, today's a beautiful winter day. But at the end of the day, if you compare today with a beautiful September afternoon where it's 73 and sunny, the two are not the same. Right. And so I always try to keep in mind what New York weather is capable of. And I think this year is a great example. We had a bunch of 10 out of 10 days in September and October where it was in the mid-60s. Low humidity, sunshine, light breeze. It doesn't get better than that. New York City, really in the fall and spring tends to shine. So it's a bit of a rating scale for comfortability. And for me, there is definitely a prime time zone that we can hit where we're in that mid-60s to mid-70s with the sunshine. Feels very far away right now, but we'll get there.

[Alison Stewart]

This is an interesting question that we got via text. It says, how much has AI changed meteorology?

[John Homnick]

Amazing question, actually. So it's in the process of changing it. I would say we could talk about this for an hour. But weather models, as they stand right now, the main ones that, you know, the European model, GFS model, they are all what we call physical models. So they are numerical, they are built on equations that are trying to simulate the atmosphere. These AI models, a lot of them are built on machine learning platforms where they are trying to learn from their own mistakes, learn from mistakes of the past. So my inclination is that these models are only going to get better when paired with the physical models that we already have. If we can use these machine learning and AI techniques, in addition to making our physical models better, I suspect that the next decade we will see weather prediction improve, specifically in like the four or five day time frame where I think accuracy could go way up.

[Alison Stewart]

You know, the government's been trying to cut funding for certain scientific agencies, including noaa, national oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which provides weather forecasts. How would those cuts affect your ability to do what you do?

[John Homnick]

Terribly. It would be a nightmare. There's already been some speculation about different resources and organizations that are going to be cut. And I can only tell you that it would negatively impact forecasting, the ability to get information to people and the ability for us to continue to get better at this. It would be a horrendous decision.

[Alison Stewart]

This text says we live up in Yorktown Heights, Westchester we got 15 inches of snow yesterday. We stayed in. I'd already made homemade chicken noodle soup on Friday. So in addition to laundry and basic house George, I almost finished a puzzle that I've been working on during the holiday. Sadly, I could not find the last two pieces, so now I need to go through the vacuum bag.

[John Homnick]

Well, maybe you have another snowstorm coming up to finish the puzzle, but that sounds like an amazing day.

[Alison Stewart]

All right, let me ask you, what does the rest of the week look like? What does next weekend look like? And then I'll let you go.

[John Homnick]

The rest of the week is fine. I think we're just a little bit in between here. It's going to be cold, right? But there's no major storms for the next few days until this weekend. I think we do need to watch this weekend closely. As I mentioned a little earlier, it's probably going to be a boomer bust type deal where we're either going to get nothing or a lot. But there are some signals out there for a big coastal storm Saturday and Sunday. So I suggest two things. Number one, don't use the apps. They're going to show you any variety of 0 to 40 inches of snow. Just remember those are just algorithms that are not really going to guide you in the right direction. And also stay away from the hype accounts on social media that are going to post the big bright graphics to try to get your attention. What we're going to do in the next couple days is try to break down the storm threat, get some confidence on it in terms of actual numbers and figure out where the pattern's going and hopefully get to a better picture on where the storm is going to going to head from there. But there is a storm threat this weekend, Saturday and Sunday in particular, after a pretty quiet week.

[Alison Stewart]

Thanks so much to John Homnick who runs the account, New York Metroweather. Thanks for joining us John.

[John Homnick]

Thank you so much for having me.

[Alison Stewart]

And thanks to all our callers who called in. And remember, beware of Ice.

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