Intelligent Machines 837: “Could, Should, Might, Don’t”

Recorded: September 17, 2025
Host: Leo Laporte
Co-Hosts: Paris Martineau (Consumer Reports), Jeff Jarvis (Craig Newmark Graduate School of Journalism)
Guest: Nick Foster (designer, ex-Dyson/Google, author of Could, Should, Might, Don’t)

Episode Overview

This week’s episode centers on how we think about the future—personally, culturally, and as organizations—prompted by Nick Foster’s new book, Could, Should, Might, Don’t: How We Think about the Future. The discussion critically examines common pitfalls in “futurism,” why most companies and people default to lazy thinking or familiar narratives, and argues for a broader, richer, and more skeptical approach to anticipating technological change and its impact (with plenty of fun and personal moments along the way).

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Introducing Nick Foster and the Book (00:50–06:00)

• Foster, a former designer at major tech firms and a self-described “futures designer,” doesn’t embrace the label “futurist.” His book offers a “taxonomy” of four ways we collectively think about the future: could, should, might, and don’t.
• The goal is not prediction or prescription, but to encourage more honest, rigorous, and pluralistic thinking when imagining what’s next.

“We sort of lack the skill set to talk with rigor about the future...it represents a growing problem.”
—Nick Foster (04:10)

Four Modes of Future-Thinking (06:00–08:30)

• Could: Sci-fi-inspired speculation—often lazy or derivative, not genuine imagination.
• Should: Prescriptive, moral, or managerial approaches.
• Might: Scenario-planning and probabilistic approaches drawing on data, but in truth they become “numeric fiction” once they move from observed data to projected trends.
• Don’t: Things we deliberately avoid or caution against (risks, taboos, blind spots).

“When that solid line turns into a dotted line, it ceases to be data and it becomes a story...I refer to it as numeric fiction.”
—Nick Foster (15:22)

Pitfalls of Mainstream Futurism (08:30–14:30)

• Sci-fi and media tropes dominate (e.g., Jetsons, flying cars), which often substitute for real thought.
• Statistical projections are given too much weight (“numeric fiction”).
• Companies and their leaders often get trapped in a single mindset—enthusiasm, caution, or statistical determinism—rarely using all four modes consciously.
• Biases from history: most tech shifts feel gradual, not revolutionary (“future mundane”).

“Who was it...Arthur C. Clarke? You describe changes at different levels, at different speeds.”
—Leo Laporte (13:09)

The “Future Mundane”: Everyday Reality of Change (09:30–15:30)

• Stories about the future should show it as ordinary, lived-in, and accretive (“like sedimentary rock”).
• Big technological or social changes often go unnoticed because they blend into our lives alongside long-running constants.

“People still brush their hair, they still go out for lunch and have a ham sandwich....they will be lived in and they will exist.”
—Nick Foster (13:26)

Critical Design & AI (20:47–22:30)

• Foster’s industrial design background shapes his belief that design can be speculative and critical (not just about aesthetics). Design must provoke rigorous social questions about emerging tech, especially AI.
• Good design involves telling stories that make us ask, “What would this really mean for daily life?” not just “can we build it?”

“I think design has a really good role to play in where things like AI and machine learning fit in society and what it might...point at.”
—Nick Foster (21:01)

Futurism as a Practice—Skepticism and Empowerment (24:09–26:23)

• Foster rejects the self-congratulatory tone of many self-labeled futurists; the field is “typically subpar.”
• Wants people to be empowered, critical consumers of futures work, not passive receivers.

“The work of futurists is typically subpar and I don’t want to be part of that cohort...I refer to myself as a futures designer, which sounds equally pretentious, but at least it gets design in there.”
—Nick Foster (24:09)

How Should We Prepare for the Future? (31:23–34:10)

• “Good futures work” is more about ongoing, pluralistic thinking—mapping possibilities, not declaring answers.
• Scenario planning is helpful, but never complete—the most important thing is to keep thinking iteratively.

“The best thing you can do is think as broadly as possible, all scenarios that could come to pass, knowing that there’ll be tons that you won’t see...”
—Nick Foster (33:17)

• “The future is a verb, not a noun.” —Bruce Sterling (33:49)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Science Fiction as Lazy Futurism:
  “What I’ve found is that people lean on science fiction...in a way that they use it as a substitution or a placeholder for real imagination and real ideas of their own.”
  —Nick Foster (06:37)

• On Numeric Fiction:
  “No matter how good your data is, when that solid line turns into a dotted line, it ceases to be data and it becomes a story...we believe [numbers] to be rigorous...but they are stories.”
  —Nick Foster (15:22)

• On The Future Mundane:
  “If we talk about the future as someplace other, we miss the fact that people like us are going to be there.”
  —Nick Foster (09:29)

• On Responsibility and Agency:
  “Every time we do something on social media, every time we do something on the Internet, we’re building the Internet and we’re choosing what Internet to build.”
  —Jeff Jarvis (34:24)

Fun/Personal and Memorable Moments

• Nick shows off his self-cast giant ring, made with a 3D printer and wax casting—a “Liberace joke that’s now a decade old.” (22:48)
• Discussion of Foster’s time at Dyson, and his design directions for book covers (19:30).
• Jeff’s request for Nick to show off his tchotchkes (“bits and bobs”)—including a car air freshener modeled on Nick’s own head and “bird boxes” for electric lines (36:24).
• Running joke on the “future of waffles”—“I see no reason why they would go away...in fact, better waffles.” (13:00)
• Leo’s deadpan: “If waffles are in my future, God bless it.” (12:52)
• Paris’s off-topic obsession with Nick’s “giant ring” (22:30).

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:50–06:00 — Introducing Nick Foster & his philosophy of futures thinking
• 06:00–08:30 — Breaking down “Could, Should, Might, Don’t”
• 09:30–15:30 — The “future mundane” and accretive change
• 20:47–22:30 — Design (aesthetics and ethics) in emerging technology & AI
• 24:09–26:23 — Problems with mainstream futurism and responsibility of experts
• 31:23–34:10 — Best practices for preparing for unpredictable futures
• 36:24–37:50 — Studio tchotchke show-and-tell
• 15:20–17:46 — Explaining “numeric fiction” and overreliance on projections
• 16:49–17:46 — Sourcing of “projections” from Succession TV show

Thematic Takeaways

• Pluralism over Predictivism: There’s no magic method for anticipating the future; the healthiest approach is to admit uncertainty and stay vigilant about our own cognitive and cultural biases.
• Beware of Simplistic Narratives: Overuse of sci-fi, statistical projection, or dystopian (or utopian) stories narrows the imagination instead of expanding it.
• Responsibility Is Ours: Everyone—users, designers, executives, citizens—must see themselves as shapers of the future, not passive recipients.
• Embeddedness, Not Otherness: The “future” is always lived in, gradual, and built from both persistent and changing elements—something to keep in mind when hyping (or fearing) rapid AI and tech advances.

Final Words

“Most of decent futures work is just doing the thinking, not necessarily getting to the answer or being better prepared. Just spending the time to invest real time and money and building teams around thinking about the future is the best preparation.”
—Nick Foster (31:23)

Next Week

Guest: Steven Levy (Wired) — to discuss tech journalism and the business of AI model “compensation.”

This summary captures the key themes, intellectual takeaways, and best moments from Episode 837 of Intelligent Machines (TWIT), “Could Should Might Don’t” with Nick Foster.