Podcast Summary: This Week in Space 149: SpaceX, Moon Missions, and Killer Asteroids?

Podcast Information:

• Title: All TWiT.tv Shows (Audio)
• Host/Author: TWiT
• Episode: This Week in Space 149: SpaceX, Moon Missions, and Killer Asteroids?
• Release Date: February 21, 2025

Hosts:

• Rod Pyle: Editor-in-Chief of Ad Astra Magazine
• Tarek Malik: Editor-in-Chief of Space.com

1. Asteroid 2024 yr: Potential Threat and Monitoring

The episode opens with an in-depth discussion about Asteroid 2024 yr, which is predicted to make a close pass by Earth in 2032. Initially, concerns were raised about its potential impact, but as observations continue, the odds of a collision have significantly decreased.

• Size and Power: The asteroid is estimated to be between 180 to 300 feet in diameter, much larger than the Chelyabinsk meteor that caused damage in 2013. Tarek notes, “It's a lot bigger than that for people that [Chelyabinsk was] the size of a SUV.”

• Impact Odds: Over the course of observations, the asteroid's likelihood of impacting Earth has decreased from an initial 1 in 32 (3.1%) to 1 in 67, and eventually to 1 in 360. Rod emphasizes, “David Rankin of the University of Arizona's Catalina Sky Survey says this asteroid is nothing to lose sleep over.”

• Mitigation Strategies: Both hosts agree that current technology, such as the DART mission, has proven our capability to deflect such threats if necessary. Rod humorously adds, “I actually deflected it in a bar stove. My favorite city to Milan,” highlighting the absurdity of the situation before focusing on serious mitigation efforts.

• Scientific Monitoring: Tarek highlights NASA’s ongoing efforts, stating, “They have this, this mass of water and hydrogel... they're gonna… that campaign starts in March.” The use of advanced telescopes like the James Webb Space Telescope is crucial, despite recent budget cuts, to ensure accurate monitoring and prediction of asteroid paths.

2. NASA’s Budget Cuts: Impact on Space Telescopes

A significant portion of the discussion centers around proposed 20% budget cuts to NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), Hubble, and Chandra Space Telescopes.

• Background: Tarek explains, “They have to keep it away from the grants because they award something on the order of 60 million in grants to fund research on the telescope itself.” These cuts are slated to take effect in October unless intervened.

• Consequences: Reduced funding means fewer operations and potential delays in scientific discoveries. Rod questions the rationale behind cutting funds for missions that are still highly productive: “But Tom Brown and some of the other scientists, they're saying this is a mission that hasn't even finished its primary phase yet.”

• Expert Opinions: Tarek voices concerns about the long-term impact, “These people that are getting laid off... they got to try to find them to hire them back because they didn't. Lay off too many people.”

• Current Status: While NASA assures compliance with budget directives, the implications for future research and technological advancements remain a topic of concern. The hosts agree that maintaining funding for these observatories is crucial for continued scientific breakthroughs.

3. Moon Missions: Firefly Aerospace vs. ispace

The race to the Moon is heating up with private companies Firefly Aerospace and ispace making significant strides.

• Firefly Aerospace: Rod reports, “Firefly, this relatively small company, really knocked one out of the park with this first CLPS mission,” referring to their Blue Ghost Moon lander currently in lunar orbit. Scheduled to land on March 2, Firefly aims to deploy 10 experiments in Mare Crisium.

• Japanese ispace: In contrast, the Japanese company ispace launched the Resilience lander on the same Falcon rocket as Firefly. Though successful in its lunar flyby, Resilience faces challenges in its landing attempts. Rod adds, “Resilience takes a lot longer to get to the moon than Blue Ghost,” highlighting the competitive nature of these missions.

• Technological Advancements: Both companies are leveraging advancements in rocket technology to enhance their landing capabilities. Tarek muses about the potential for point-to-point transportation systems, speculating on SpaceX’s long-term visions: “This is the beginnings of some kind of Falcon point to point transportation system?”

• Future Prospects: The hosts express optimism about the increasing number of private lunar missions, noting that these efforts pave the way for more ambitious projects, including sustained human presence on the Moon.

4. SpaceX’s Bahamas Endeavor: Launching and Landing Rights

A groundbreaking move by SpaceX involves securing launching and landing rights in the Bahamas.

• Strategic Location: Rod questions the choice of the Bahamas, pondering Elon Musk’s motivations: “But why the Bahamas? And why... when he could just be offshore. So is he really thinking of launching from there?”

• Operational Benefits: Tarek explains that landing rockets in the Bahamas allows SpaceX to access a wider variety of orbital inclinations, expanding their portfolio for diverse mission requirements: “They can burn a little bit longer, land basically kind of where they are over, and reach a wider variety of orbital inclinations.”

• Sustainability Concerns: However, questions arise about the logistics of retrieving and reusing rockets from the Bahamas. Tarek speculates on potential systems for rotation and return trips, considering SpaceX’s extensive fleet: “They could set up some kind of rotating delivery system… bringing them back over time like they kind of do now.”

• Vision for the Future: The hosts entertain the possibility of revolutionary transportation methods, envisioning a future where SpaceX’s advancements could redefine global travel: “Could this be the beginning so that I don't have to fly for two days to get to the other side of the world?”

5. Elon Musk and the International Space Station (ISS) Deorbit Plan

A controversial topic emerges around Elon Musk’s proposal to deorbit the ISS sooner than planned.

• Proposal: Rod states, “Elon Musk wants to deorbit the ISS and I quote, as soon as possible,” suggesting Musk’s ambition to expedite humanity’s journey to Mars by removing the ISS.

• Cost Implications: The ISS operation costs approximately $3 billion per year, and Musk argues that reallocating these funds could accelerate Mars missions: “Instead they have to keep that landing or it could be all she wrote.”

• NASA’s Existing Plans: Tarek counters by highlighting that NASA had already planned to deorbit the ISS by 2030, with SpaceX contracted to handle the task: “There is already a plan to deorbit the space station and it is to deorbit the space station by 2030.”

• Political Undertones: The discussion touches on potential political motivations behind Musk’s push, with Rod noting, “It feels like a smear campaign... beating on NASA for this just feels a little disingenuous.”

• Safety and Logistics: Concerns are raised about the operational readiness and safety implications of Musk’s approach versus NASA’s structured timeline: “We're not ready. We don't have bulletproof life support systems that can last for the entire trip out and back.”

• Conclusion: Both hosts agree that while Musk’s vision is ambitious, the existing plans prioritize safety, international partnerships, and sustainability, making any abrupt changes potentially disruptive.

6. Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) and AI Integration

The search for alien civilizations continues to evolve with the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in processing vast astronomical data.

• Project Overview: Rod introduces a project with a lengthy acronym, “Cosmic Talk about tortured acronyms”, collaborating with the Very Large Array (VLA) to seek Highly Focused Radio Transmissions that could indicate alien civilizations.

• AI’s Role: Tarek highlights how AI streamlines data analysis, making the search more efficient: “But sorting through this data is very time-consuming. So a project called Cosmic… has been looking into this with AI.”

• Results: Currently, no signals of interest have emerged from the efforts, but the hosts remain hopeful: “No real results. Nothing like the wow signal of years gone by.”

• Educational Impact: Tarek emphasizes the dual benefit of SETI projects in training the next generation of radio astronomers, ensuring sustained expertise: “They are using it to teach a new generation of radio astronomers, high school students and whatnot, how to actually do the science.”

• Future Prospects: The hosts express optimism that continued advancements in AI will enhance the chances of detecting extraterrestrial signals, laying the groundwork for future discoveries.

7. Radiation Protection in Deep Space: Innovations in Hydrogels

Addressing one of the most significant challenges in deep space travel, the hosts delve into radiation protection advancements using 3D-printed hydrogels.

• Current Challenges: Rod explains the limitations of existing radiation shielding materials like aluminum, which can produce secondary radiation particles: “Aluminum is bad because when a higher energy particle hits it, it can spall and actually create more particles.”

• Hydrogel Solution: The episode highlights a breakthrough—3D-printed hydrogels that can line spacecraft pressure vessels and hold water in a 3D structure, providing effective radiation shielding while maintaining mass efficiency: “They can use these 3D structures that hold the distribution of water static. So you've got evenly distributed protection.”

• Advantages: This technology not only offers improved radiation protection but also serves as a versatile resource for astronauts, providing water for drinking and oxygen generation at destinations: “You have water you can use when you reach a destination, if you choose to, for drinking or creating oxygen.”

• Practical Implications: Rod considers practical applications, such as using hydrogels in Starship missions to the Moon and Mars, potentially mining water on the Moon to sustain radiation protection: “You could launch a starship lined with this hydrogel to the moon, fly naked out to the moon in terms of radiation, and then on the moon, tank up with water to saturate the hydrogel if you're continuing on Mars.”

• Visual Appeal: Tarek shares his fascination with the aesthetic aspect of hydrogels, likening them to “squishy watery dinosaurs,” adding a lighthearted touch to the technical discussion.

8. NASA Workforce Reductions: Impact on Future Missions

The podcast also addresses the recent workforce reductions at NASA, which have sparked concern among the scientific community.

• Layoff Details: Rod informs listeners about the planned layoffs affecting probationary employees, with approximately 1,000 positions being terminated: “The first round was expected to be Release of all probationary employees, quote, unquote.”

• Exclusions and Implications: Notably, facilities like Goddard and the Marshall Space Flight Center were excluded from these cuts, raising questions about prioritization: “They were excluded, but there was no explanation as to why.”

• National Science Foundation Parallel: Similar cuts are happening at the National Science Foundation, where 168 people are being laid off, with a wider impact across agencies: “The National Science Foundation got a similar memo and they did lay off about 10% of its staff.”

• Long-Term Consequences: Tarek expresses concern over losing the new generation of scientists and engineers, which could hinder future advancements and leadership within NASA and associated institutions: “These are the probationary employees, these new people, this new generation that would become the future leaders at NASA… you kind of don’t want to lose those people.”

• International Competition: The timing of these cuts, amidst rising technological competition from countries like China, adds another layer of complexity: “In an era where we're concerned about Chinese technological ascendance and maybe losing the foot race back to the moon...”

• Host Reflections: Rod shares a personal anecdote about his own experience with workforce reductions at JPL, underscoring the widespread nature of these challenges within NASA.

9. Conclusion and Future Outlook

As the episode wraps up, Rod and Tarek reflect on the myriad of challenges and advancements shaping the future of space exploration.

• Hope for Technological Progress: Despite setbacks like budget cuts and workforce reductions, the hosts remain optimistic about the potential for technological innovations and private sector contributions to drive space exploration forward.

• Community Engagement: Tarek extends empathy to those affected by NASA’s workforce changes and encourages community members to reach out, fostering a supportive environment.

• Upcoming Missions and Events: Both hosts highlight the busy week ahead, with multiple SpaceX launches, NASA press conferences, and ongoing monitoring of space threats, ensuring listeners stay informed about the dynamic landscape of space exploration.

• Final Remarks: Rod and Tarek emphasize the importance of balanced perspectives, scientific integrity, and the collaborative spirit necessary to navigate the challenges ahead. They invite listeners to stay engaged, support space initiatives, and continue fostering a passion for discovery.

Notable Quotes:

• Rod Pyle [02:11]: “But Tom Brown and some of the other scientists, they're saying this is a mission that hasn't even finished its primary phase yet.”

• Tarek Malik [12:19]: “You have land in the Bahamas or at least your family does.”

• Rod Pyle [35:01]: “We’re not ready. We don’t have bulletproof life support systems that can last for the entire trip out and back.”

• Tarek Malik [52:20]: “They have a really solid stable of these in, in hand.”

Conclusion: Episode 149 of This Week in Space offers a comprehensive overview of pressing space-related topics, from asteroid monitoring and lunar missions to the impacts of budget cuts and workforce reductions at NASA. Through engaging dialogue and insightful analysis, Rod Pyle and Tarek Malik provide listeners with a nuanced understanding of the current state and future prospects of space exploration.