Untitled Linux Show 235: Happy Holidays | December 28, 2025

Episode Overview

This special holiday edition of the Untitled Linux Show brings together Jonathan Bennett, Rob Campbell, Jeff Geerling, and a call-in from Ken Starks to recap their predictions from the past year, discuss key Linux and open source stories of 2025, share their favorite moments and command line tips, and make bold predictions for 2026. With relaxed banter and deep technical insight, the hosts settle scores on last year's predictions, reflect on the biggest surprises and misses, and share what they're most excited (and worried) about for Linux and open source in the coming year.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

Reviewing 2025: Predictions vs. Reality

Rob Campbell’s 2025 Predictions (03:05–08:40)

• 3% Linux Market Share on Steam
  • Prediction: Linux would hit 3% in the Steam gaming survey.
  • Result: "I nailed that one. Linux hit 3.05% in October of 2025, almost 50% more than macOS on the same survey." – Rob Campbell (03:30)
• Cosmic Desktop Final Release
  • Prediction: A final release in 2025.
  • Result: Not quite at year’s end, but close; final release likely early next year.
• New Steam Console Announced
  • Prediction: Valve (or another) would announce a new Steam console.
  • Result: Announced but not yet released; also, emergence of Steam Deck competitors.
• Proxmox Datacenter to See Major Improvements
  • Prediction: Proxmox would make big strides, replacing VMware.
  • Result: “That metric was a big failure… the Proxmox datacenter software hasn’t seen a single update since the alpha a year ago.” – Rob (06:02)
• Premium ARM Linux Laptop
  • Prediction: Expected to hit the market.
  • Result: Upstart products fizzled out, with a lack of manufacturer support.
• Wayland Adoption by Straggling Distros
  • Prediction: The “Wayland stragglers” would finalize their plans.
  • Result: Partial success—most mainstream distros moving to Wayland or offering experimental support, but some holdouts remain.

Jonathan Bennett’s 2025 Predictions (08:42–13:49)

• HDR Support in Browsers on Linux
  • Result: “If you’re on Wayland, you just turn it on and it works.” – Jonathan (09:29)
• Culture War Issues and Forks in Open Source
  • **More drama and bans happened, but forks haven’t gained traction or threatened original projects.
• Potential BRICS Kernel Emergence
  • Predicted: If geopolitical tension continued, a separate kernel could appear.
  • Reality: “If this has happened, it’s not made the news.” – Jonathan (12:10)
• Raspberry Pi 500 Pro/XL Launch
  • Prediction: An enhanced Pi 500 would be released.
  • Result: The Pi 500 Plus debuted, matching the spirit of the forecast.
• Software Liability Legislation
  • Prediction: Legislative movement towards holding software companies liable for damages.
  • Result: Ongoing evolution, but full liability has not materialized.

Jeff Geerling’s 2025 Predictions (16:26–24:51)

• Kernel LTS 6.18 & 7.0
  • Prediction: New major Linux kernel version.
  • Reality: Not quite yet; possibly early next year.
• AMD Graphics Sales Stumble
  • Prediction/Result: “Nvidia handed them the market on a plate, and they price themselves out… they didn’t order enough units.” – Jeff (17:08)
• CUDA Alternatives Gaining Traction
  • Progress: “I think it’s actually becoming a real alternative now… the performance gap is closed quite a bit.” – Jeff (20:34–21:42)
• Ubuntu vs Fedora as Cutting Edge
  • Result: Core releases are fighting to be first with new features, like early Rust integration.
• First Major Distro Proposes Dropping X11
  • Prediction: Fedora or Ubuntu would propose dropping X11.
  • Result: Directionally accurate; proposals and momentum, but not yet full abandonment.
• 2025 Was a 'Boring' Year for Hardware
  • Consensus: Minor updates from CPU and GPU vendors, no revolutionary leaps this year.

Biggest Misses and Surprises (25:01–28:46)

• Windows 11’s Rocky Reception
  • “I missed how much of a train wreck Windows 11 was going to be… particularly because of all of the weird stuff Microsoft keeps cramming in there.” – Jonathan (25:37)
• Mainstream Tech's Shift Toward Linux
  • LTTS, Gamers Nexus, and PewDiePie all gave Linux more attention than expected.
• Steam Frame Announcement
  • Valve’s hardware moves were surprising in timing and execution.
• Clear Linux Project Disappearance
  • Significant layoffs at Intel led to the end of Clear Linux and cuts to other open source initiatives.
• ExLibre Fork of X11
  • The rise of ExLibre to preserve X11 was “obvious in retrospect,” given resistance to Wayland transitions.

Favorite News Stories of 2025 (29:21–34:54)

• Valve's Ongoing Contributions
  • “All of the Valve announcements, their hardware, their Steam survey showing Linux on the rise, Proton on ARM—everything Valve.” – Rob Campbell (29:32)
• Wayland's HDR Progress
  • Valve and KDE drove important HDR updates, pulling Wayland forward as a desktop option.
• Proton's Continuous Improvement
  • Better gaming compatibility on Linux, thanks to Valve’s investment.
• “Anubis” Linux Catgirls Meme
  • “It’s hilarious and it’s fun and it was a lot of fun to talk about…” – Jonathan
• Linus Torvalds' Softer Yet Effective Rants
  • “He lets his rage out—it’s more G-rated now.” – Jeff (31:47)
• Benchmarking, Distro, and Hardware Comparisons
  • Jeff: “I just love comparing distros and hardware—what can I say, I’m a hardware guy.” (31:02)

Important Stories: Not Favorites, but Big Impact (39:10–41:16)

• AI’s Impact on Open Source
  • Large influx of AI-generated code, “slop security vulnerabilities,” and maintainers forced to wade through low-quality, mass-generated pull requests.
• Firefox Losing (But Thunderbird Gaining) Market Share
• Ubuntu's Aggressive Rust Adoption
  • “Ubuntu really pushing the limits with Rust is potentially pretty big.” – Rob Campbell (41:08)

Favorite Linux Command-Line Tips of the Year (41:25–44:28)

• Rob Campbell
  • Uptime Kuma for service monitoring (41:37)
  • Systemd auto-restart for failed services
  • Ansible and Semaphore UI for automation management
• Jonathan Bennett
  • strings utility: “Super useful for figuring out what’s going on inside a binary…” (43:12)
• Jeff Geerling
  • cheat: “Like TLDR, but more complete, pulls from Stack Overflow and elsewhere.” (43:34)
• Ken Starks
  • wpctl status for Pipewire control (44:00)
  • topgrade for updating all systems centrally

Predictions for 2026 (44:28–56:49)

Rob Campbell

• Asus Launches Their Own Steam Machine
• Linux Hits 4% on Steam Survey (no stretch to 5%)
• Wayland Goes Stable (Not Default) on Mint Cinnamon; XFCE makes progress
• Announcement (not yet shipping) of a Tuxedo Computers Snapdragon X2 Elite ARM laptop
• Canonical Will Roll Back Some Rust Changes for 24.04 LTS

Jonathan Bennett

• Next Steam Deck Announced (ARM-Based)
• Anti-Cheat Support for Linux Becomes Ubiquitous
• Continued Wayland Drama (“That group… are just really good at their drama.” – Jonathan 46:59)
• NPM Security Overhaul as large-scale attacks persist and "worm" packages spread (49:17)
• x86 Decline Begins in Earnest: ARM and RISC-V see more attention amid Windows 11 malaise

Jeff Geerling

• At Least One Major Game (e.g., Fortnite, COD) Ships with Working Anti-Cheat on Steam/Linux
• Open Source NVIDIA Driver Hits ≥80% of Proprietary Driver Performance
  • "I think we will have an Nvidia open source driver within 80% of the proprietary driver." – Jeff (52:14)
• Ubuntu Moves Away from GNOME as Default, Switches to Cosmic or Reboots Unity
  • “Normally I would say KDE, but they’re going to probably… do their own thing.” – Jeff (53:07)
• Modest CPU, Significant GPU Hardware Leaps
• The AI Bubble Deflates (But It’s Not a Pop):
  • "It's not a bubble, it's a balloon… We're going to see people take a chill on AI a little bit…" – Jeff (54:50; 56:49)

Ken Starks

• Pipewire Version 1.6.0 Early in 2026
• Video Routing Advancements, but Not ‘Prime Time’ Ready

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “If you’re on Wayland, you just… turn it on and [HDR] works. No more hoops to jump through.” – Jonathan Bennett (09:29)
• "AMD: Nvidia handed them the market on a plate...and they price themselves out of it." – Jeff Geerling (17:08)
• “I think at this point those people are not stragglers…they are just rebels. They're very happily where they're at.” – Jonathan Bennett on X11 holdouts (07:10)
• “Steam Frame…did not see that one coming.” – Jonathan (26:43)
• “All of the Valve announcements — hardware, Steam survey, Proton on ARM — everything Valve.” – Rob Campbell (29:32)
• “The command I actually use all the time…is strings.” – Jonathan Bennett (43:12)

Fun Ending & Community Spirit

• Jeff’s Dr. Seuss-style technical manual reading:
  “If the label on your cable on the gable at your house says network is connected to the button on your mouse…” (58:31–59:58)
• “I was worried it was not going to end!” – Rob Campbell (60:00)
• Ken’s advice: “Review your backup processes…and test your recovery methods. It doesn’t do any good to back up and not be able to recover.” (60:31)
• “As sure as I’m a poet, the sucker is going to hang.” – Jeff Geerling, quoting the poem (59:48)

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Segment | Start | |--------------------------------------------|----------| | Last Year’s Predictions Recap | 03:05 | | Notable Fails & Surprises | 25:01 | | Favorite News Stories | 29:21 | | Important News (non-favorites) | 39:10 | | Favorite Command-Line Tips | 41:25 | | 2026 Predictions Roundtable | 44:28 | | Wrap-up & Holiday Messages | 58:31 |

Tone & Style

The episode maintains a conversational, geeky, and good-humored tone, with in-jokes, gentle ribbing, and cheerful holiday wishes. The hosts are frank about both wins and misses, offering honest—but optimistic—takes on the future of Linux and open source.

Summary

This holiday roundtable provided listeners with a brisk but comprehensive survey of Linux and open source in 2025, including both triumphs (Valve’s impact, HDR and gaming strides, mythic memes) and travails (hardware dullness, open source drama, security blunders). The hosts remain hopeful about 2026, forecasting more Steam-driven market share, further hardware evolution, more Wayland drama, and the relentless rise of ARM and open drivers. With playful banter, honest self-reflection, and charming chaos, it’s the perfect capstone for a year in Linux.