Windows Weekly 952: "You Can See the Edges of the Bubble"

Date: October 1, 2025
Hosts: Leo Laporte, Paul Thurrott (Mexico City), Richard Campbell (Canada)

Episode Overview

In this highly energetic and at times philosophical episode, Leo, Paul, and Richard dissect the latest happenings across the Windows and broader Microsoft ecosystem. Major topics include the minor Windows 11 25H2 release, the ongoing evolution (and confusion) of Windows feature rollouts, a deep dive into recent executive shuffles and organizational realignments at Microsoft, insight from the Snapdragon Summit, subscription fatigue (especially Game Pass), and a sobering discussion on the “AI bubble” and its societal consequences. Sprinkled throughout are memorable tales of bear encounters, homeownership debates, and rich philosophical ruminations about technology’s future.

Key Topics & Discussion Highlights

1. Windows 11 25H2: “A Patchwork Quilt of Features”

[02:11 – 07:35]

25H2 arrives – sort of. Paul is skeptical about the rollout, noting that neither he nor others have actually received the build outside Insiders:

“I haven’t seen it yet. … My expectation… is probably a preview update.” – Paul Thurrott [03:14]
No real differences from 24H2 besides the version number and tiny changes (like removal of the old PowerShell).

“They are literally identical.” – Paul [04:17]
“99 point something percent, they’re identical.” – Paul [04:32]
Feature fragmentation and update chaos: The current Windows update “non-determinism” drives Paul and others with technical compulsions “insane”:

“If you make a grid... you’d create a patchwork quilt of checks and Xs.” [04:32–05:00]
“This is non-deterministic. It’s worse than non-deterministic. It’s chaotically random.” [08:22]
Microsoft frames it as normal – but Paul challenges that:

“It’s just the way it is… It’s one thing that is semi amusing to me is to read the Microsoft explanation...” [08:25]

Timestamps:

Windows 25H2 vs. 24H2: [02:11–07:35]
Update confusion and rollout issues: [07:35–09:26]

2. Major Microsoft Organization Reorgs

[10:49 – 18:40; 60:09 – 69:02]

Pavan Davalori’s promotion; return of Windows core engineering group. Big internal shifts aimed at aligning for the “AI era” and greater unification between client (Windows) and server (Azure):

"They're bringing back the engineering group... this has gone back and forth over the years." – Paul [10:49]
The rationale? To enable a “really important AI version of Windows” with proper kernel and core integration for client scenarios.

“Hey, we need to build a really important AI version of Windows. It’s all about the client and we need control of kernel.” – Richard [15:47]
Philosophy on product unification:

“Imagine updates making sense … If there’s a unified strategy for Windows, maybe it’s a unified strategy for updates…” – Richard [16:56]
History flashbacks: Stories about how Windows and Server used to blur, and kudos to ex-hacker Mark Russinovich, now CTO of Azure.
Satya Nadella shifting roles:

“Satya Nadella…announced he was passing many of his responsibilities to Judson Althoff…Nadella says he will be laser focused on the highest…technical work…” – Paul [60:09]
Wider implications: Raised questions about Microsoft's management layers and whether this signals deeper change or is mainly for show:

"He’s been saying for years now, we’re transforming. … This is him leading by example." – Paul [66:48]

Timestamps:

Reorg details: [10:49–22:38], [60:09–69:02]

3. Windows Update Model & Insider/Feature Rollouts

[27:33 – 32:48]

Rolling thunder of small new features (Photos app auto-categorization, search “sparkle”, voice updates).
User frustration at half-finished changes:

“Maybe they'll fix it by the time the next version comes along. Or the screaming noises finally penetrate into the bubble.” – Richard [31:14]

4. Microsoft Subscription Changes: Microsoft 365 Premium & Copilot

[69:45 – 84:29]

Microsoft 365 Premium replaces Copilot Pro at $20/month – but only account holder gets full Copilot/AI features.

“It’s sneaky…a little number in the quote in light gray…explains this. … To me, what this thing should have been was family, but AI for everybody.” – Paul [72:15]
Enterprise-grade AI indemnity and licensing extended to premium consumers.
Emerging “vibe working” paradigm: Copilot moving from “beside the app” (sidebar) to “inside the app” (deep integration).

“We’re seeing the first steps… with this thing because there’s a couple of other little things that are interesting here.” – Paul [72:58]

5. The “AI Bubble” – Social, Economic, & Environmental Reflections

[92:04 – 101:02]

AI’s disruptive reality:

“Cory Doctorow says AI cannot do your job, but an AI salesman can 100% convince your boss to fire you and replace you with an AI that can't do your job. … AI is the asbestos we are shoveling into the walls of our society.” – Leo [92:04]
Listener stories about communities blocking new AI data centers.
AI’s unsustainable energy use:

“They are the black hole of powered electricity.” – Paul [96:33]
Hosts’ skepticism on the longevity of current AI investment and usage:

“You can see the edges of the bubble now, sooner or later it pops.” – Richard [100:30]

6. Copilot, Agents, and the Interaction Paradigm Shift

[110:03 – 116:33]

Exclusive interview snippets from Paul with Stevie Bathiche, Copilot/AI team at Microsoft.

“Most prompt-based AI interactions are command-response … but this [Paint CoCreator with AI] was more like a cooperative interaction…” – Paul, paraphrasing Bathiche [104:42]
The future is orchestration and embedded, specialized agents:

“When’s Windows going to become an orchestrator for AI? … He talked around it … we probably want to move the orchestrator into the model.” – Paul w/ Steve Bathiche [110:03–113:12]

7. Xbox/Game Pass Restructuring & Pricing Upheaval

[123:34 – 141:07]

Game Pass Ultimate gets a 50% price hike (now $29.99/mo); loss of “Day One” perk for lower tiers.

“This was already… the most expensive tier. … It went up like a 50% price hike… this is going to be a gut check moment for a lot of people.” – Paul [129:25]
Cloud gaming emerges from beta, now part of all tiers.
General sense of subscription fatigue and confusion.
New handhelds (Asus ROG Ally, etc.) using revised, trimmed Windows for gaming.
Costco stops selling Xbox consoles – possible retail canary in the coal mine.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Windows' current state:

“You only see that mirage when you’re doing that. You don’t see it when you’re in Whole Foods buying oranges. Like, the mirage only appears when your brain is like, you need this. … Microsoft has just done that for all of us all the time.” – Paul [29:05]
On erratic feature delivery:

“This is non‑deterministic. It’s worse than non-deterministic. It’s chaotically random.” – Paul [08:22]
On the “AI Bubble”:

“…you can see the edges of the bubble now. Sooner or later it pops.” – Richard [100:30]
AI’s resource consumption:

“They are the black hole of powered electricity.” – Paul [96:33]
On Microsoft internal unity:

“I got to think that one of Pavan’s pitches is hey, we need to build a really important AI version of Windows. It's all about the client and we need control of kernel if we're going to make this happen.” – Richard [15:47]
On subscription economics:

“This at least makes sense… You don’t want this or need it—they’re not killing the thing you’re using…” – Paul [75:00]

Additional Segment Timestamps

| Segment | Start | End | |---------------------------------------------|-----------|-----------| | Windows 25H2 & Update Chaos | 02:11 | 09:26 | | Windows Organization/Engineering Reorgs | 10:49 | 22:38 | | Preview/Beta Features & Update Frustration | 27:33 | 32:48 | | Copilot/AI Subscription Shifts | 69:45 | 84:29 | | AI Bubble/Environmental Concerns | 92:04 | 101:02 | | Copilot Agents & Orchestration | 110:03 | 116:33 | | Xbox/Game Pass Reshuffle & Industry Trends | 123:34 | 141:07 |

Fun & Human Moments

Paul and Richard joke about homeownership and multiple house envy: [36:03–38:25]
Paul's excitement at meeting Microsoft’s Stevie Bathiche; Instagram observations: [103:12–105:31]
The “Noctua Fan” PC build and the IKEA Law (“You love furniture you build yourself”): [54:06–55:29]
Bear encounter in Richard’s yard (“The bear found fertilizer, decided it wasn’t food, moved on...”): [01:29–01:50]
Brief digressions about whiskey (Compass Box “Velocor” and its “old bookstore” notes): [157:26–164:46]

Conclusion & Takeaways

This episode captured the "squishy," often frustrating present state of Microsoft’s desktop/platform offerings, with a sense of transition (organizationally and technically) as the AI era accelerates. The hosts express both cautious optimism—particularly via hardware advances like Snapdragon X and some new “agents” work—but also deep skepticism about the long-term sustainability of AI hype and the overstretched economic model of today’s tech giants. An overarching theme: the edge of the bubble is in sight.

“The AI sparkle is the only thing that’s actually consistent across Windows.”
—Paul Thurrott [29:36]

For more info and show archives: twit.tv/ww

Windows Weekly 952: "You Can See the Edges of the Bubble"

Date: October 1, 2025
Hosts: Leo Laporte, Paul Thurrott (Mexico City), Richard Campbell (Canada)

Episode Overview

Key Topics & Discussion Highlights

1. Windows 11 25H2: “A Patchwork Quilt of Features”

[02:11 – 07:35]

25H2 arrives – sort of. Paul is skeptical about the rollout, noting that neither he nor others have actually received the build outside Insiders:

“I haven’t seen it yet. … My expectation… is probably a preview update.” – Paul Thurrott [03:14]
No real differences from 24H2 besides the version number and tiny changes (like removal of the old PowerShell).

“They are literally identical.” – Paul [04:17]
“99 point something percent, they’re identical.” – Paul [04:32]
Feature fragmentation and update chaos: The current Windows update “non-determinism” drives Paul and others with technical compulsions “insane”:

“If you make a grid... you’d create a patchwork quilt of checks and Xs.” [04:32–05:00]
“This is non-deterministic. It’s worse than non-deterministic. It’s chaotically random.” [08:22]
Microsoft frames it as normal – but Paul challenges that:

“It’s just the way it is… It’s one thing that is semi amusing to me is to read the Microsoft explanation...” [08:25]

Timestamps:

Windows 25H2 vs. 24H2: [02:11–07:35]
Update confusion and rollout issues: [07:35–09:26]

2. Major Microsoft Organization Reorgs

[10:49 – 18:40; 60:09 – 69:02]

Pavan Davalori’s promotion; return of Windows core engineering group. Big internal shifts aimed at aligning for the “AI era” and greater unification between client (Windows) and server (Azure):

"They're bringing back the engineering group... this has gone back and forth over the years." – Paul [10:49]
The rationale? To enable a “really important AI version of Windows” with proper kernel and core integration for client scenarios.

“Hey, we need to build a really important AI version of Windows. It’s all about the client and we need control of kernel.” – Richard [15:47]
Philosophy on product unification:

“Imagine updates making sense … If there’s a unified strategy for Windows, maybe it’s a unified strategy for updates…” – Richard [16:56]
History flashbacks: Stories about how Windows and Server used to blur, and kudos to ex-hacker Mark Russinovich, now CTO of Azure.
Satya Nadella shifting roles:

“Satya Nadella…announced he was passing many of his responsibilities to Judson Althoff…Nadella says he will be laser focused on the highest…technical work…” – Paul [60:09]
Wider implications: Raised questions about Microsoft's management layers and whether this signals deeper change or is mainly for show:

"He’s been saying for years now, we’re transforming. … This is him leading by example." – Paul [66:48]

Timestamps:

Reorg details: [10:49–22:38], [60:09–69:02]

3. Windows Update Model & Insider/Feature Rollouts

[27:33 – 32:48]

Rolling thunder of small new features (Photos app auto-categorization, search “sparkle”, voice updates).
User frustration at half-finished changes:

“Maybe they'll fix it by the time the next version comes along. Or the screaming noises finally penetrate into the bubble.” – Richard [31:14]

4. Microsoft Subscription Changes: Microsoft 365 Premium & Copilot

[69:45 – 84:29]

Microsoft 365 Premium replaces Copilot Pro at $20/month – but only account holder gets full Copilot/AI features.

“It’s sneaky…a little number in the quote in light gray…explains this. … To me, what this thing should have been was family, but AI for everybody.” – Paul [72:15]
Enterprise-grade AI indemnity and licensing extended to premium consumers.
Emerging “vibe working” paradigm: Copilot moving from “beside the app” (sidebar) to “inside the app” (deep integration).

“We’re seeing the first steps… with this thing because there’s a couple of other little things that are interesting here.” – Paul [72:58]

5. The “AI Bubble” – Social, Economic, & Environmental Reflections

[92:04 – 101:02]

AI’s disruptive reality:

“Cory Doctorow says AI cannot do your job, but an AI salesman can 100% convince your boss to fire you and replace you with an AI that can't do your job. … AI is the asbestos we are shoveling into the walls of our society.” – Leo [92:04]
Listener stories about communities blocking new AI data centers.
AI’s unsustainable energy use:

“They are the black hole of powered electricity.” – Paul [96:33]
Hosts’ skepticism on the longevity of current AI investment and usage:

“You can see the edges of the bubble now, sooner or later it pops.” – Richard [100:30]

6. Copilot, Agents, and the Interaction Paradigm Shift

[110:03 – 116:33]

Exclusive interview snippets from Paul with Stevie Bathiche, Copilot/AI team at Microsoft.

“Most prompt-based AI interactions are command-response … but this [Paint CoCreator with AI] was more like a cooperative interaction…” – Paul, paraphrasing Bathiche [104:42]
The future is orchestration and embedded, specialized agents:

“When’s Windows going to become an orchestrator for AI? … He talked around it … we probably want to move the orchestrator into the model.” – Paul w/ Steve Bathiche [110:03–113:12]

7. Xbox/Game Pass Restructuring & Pricing Upheaval

[123:34 – 141:07]

Game Pass Ultimate gets a 50% price hike (now $29.99/mo); loss of “Day One” perk for lower tiers.

“This was already… the most expensive tier. … It went up like a 50% price hike… this is going to be a gut check moment for a lot of people.” – Paul [129:25]
Cloud gaming emerges from beta, now part of all tiers.
General sense of subscription fatigue and confusion.
New handhelds (Asus ROG Ally, etc.) using revised, trimmed Windows for gaming.
Costco stops selling Xbox consoles – possible retail canary in the coal mine.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Windows' current state:

“You only see that mirage when you’re doing that. You don’t see it when you’re in Whole Foods buying oranges. Like, the mirage only appears when your brain is like, you need this. … Microsoft has just done that for all of us all the time.” – Paul [29:05]
On erratic feature delivery:

“This is non‑deterministic. It’s worse than non-deterministic. It’s chaotically random.” – Paul [08:22]
On the “AI Bubble”:

“…you can see the edges of the bubble now. Sooner or later it pops.” – Richard [100:30]
AI’s resource consumption:

“They are the black hole of powered electricity.” – Paul [96:33]
On Microsoft internal unity:

“I got to think that one of Pavan’s pitches is hey, we need to build a really important AI version of Windows. It's all about the client and we need control of kernel if we're going to make this happen.” – Richard [15:47]
On subscription economics:

“This at least makes sense… You don’t want this or need it—they’re not killing the thing you’re using…” – Paul [75:00]

Additional Segment Timestamps

Fun & Human Moments

Paul and Richard joke about homeownership and multiple house envy: [36:03–38:25]
Paul's excitement at meeting Microsoft’s Stevie Bathiche; Instagram observations: [103:12–105:31]
The “Noctua Fan” PC build and the IKEA Law (“You love furniture you build yourself”): [54:06–55:29]
Bear encounter in Richard’s yard (“The bear found fertilizer, decided it wasn’t food, moved on...”): [01:29–01:50]
Brief digressions about whiskey (Compass Box “Velocor” and its “old bookstore” notes): [157:26–164:46]

Conclusion & Takeaways

“The AI sparkle is the only thing that’s actually consistent across Windows.”
—Paul Thurrott [29:36]

For more info and show archives: twit.tv/ww

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Windows Weekly 952: You Can See the Edges of the Bubble

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Summary

Windows Weekly 952: "You Can See the Edges of the Bubble"

Episode Overview

Key Topics & Discussion Highlights

1. Windows 11 25H2: “A Patchwork Quilt of Features”

2. Major Microsoft Organization Reorgs

3. Windows Update Model & Insider/Feature Rollouts

4. Microsoft Subscription Changes: Microsoft 365 Premium & Copilot

5. The “AI Bubble” – Social, Economic, & Environmental Reflections

6. Copilot, Agents, and the Interaction Paradigm Shift

7. Xbox/Game Pass Restructuring & Pricing Upheaval

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Additional Segment Timestamps

Fun & Human Moments

Conclusion & Takeaways

Summary

Windows Weekly 952: "You Can See the Edges of the Bubble"

Episode Overview

Key Topics & Discussion Highlights

1. Windows 11 25H2: “A Patchwork Quilt of Features”

2. Major Microsoft Organization Reorgs

3. Windows Update Model & Insider/Feature Rollouts

4. Microsoft Subscription Changes: Microsoft 365 Premium & Copilot

5. The “AI Bubble” – Social, Economic, & Environmental Reflections

6. Copilot, Agents, and the Interaction Paradigm Shift

7. Xbox/Game Pass Restructuring & Pricing Upheaval

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Additional Segment Timestamps

Fun & Human Moments

Conclusion & Takeaways