Episode Overview

Podcast: Always Be Testing
Episode: #115 — The Measurement Mistakes Costing Brands Millions
Air Date: February 10, 2026
Host: Tye DeGrange
Guest: Cormac Jonas (Founder & CEO, Jonas Agency)

In this episode, Tye DeGrange welcomes back Cormac Jonas to dissect the hidden pitfalls and costly errors in marketing measurement, especially within affiliate and partner marketing for SaaS brands. With recent controversies, shifting channels, and the rise of AI, they break down how outdated attribution, fraud, and network complacency are leading brands astray—and what top performers are doing differently.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Cormac’s Career Context and Thematic Thread

• Career Highlights: Cormac’s experience spans Partnerize, RetailMeNot, TikTok, and launching Savor, always with a through line of attribution and outcome measurement across content types.

  “How that content drives outcomes for a business has been the through line that's really kind of top to bottom for me.” (02:02)

Measurement Myths & Shifting Channels

TikTok’s Transformation and Attribution Blindness

• Original belief: “It was only teens and jeans. That's all you were reaching on TikTok.” (02:54)
• Cormac reveals marketers missed high-intent search volume from new demographics, misattributed TikTok-driven conversions as “direct” due to the lack of UTM tags, especially during the pandemic.
• Some brands recognized this shift and capitalized early; many did not.

The 2025 Performance Marketing Landscape

• Shift away from Google for traditional search ads. Diminished text search ad returns, but massive growth for YouTube.
• Meta Andromeda under-adoption: Lack of agility among marketers adapting to Meta’s push toward creative-centric vs campaign-structured ads.

  “It took a long time for it to be adopted. ... rigorous adherence to best practices is really the best special sauce you can do.” (04:36)

• YouTube’s dominance: “All roads lead back to YouTube ... they are the most watched thing on televisions.” (07:49)

  “If you're not targeting, you're missing the most interactive search engine in their house.” (08:15)

Fraud and the Challenge of Incrementality

The Scale of Fraud in Digital Advertising

• Massive increase in click fraud and bot traffic, particularly in programmatic, retail media, and CTV (Connected TV).
• “Black Friday last year was the first time ... that bot traffic outnumbered humans on the Internet.” (08:27)
• AI-driven fake searches and automated bot activity are inflating impression numbers and diluting measurement integrity.

Advice for Programmatic Buying

• “Treat it like the farmer's market—buy direct, know your source.” (10:04)
• Dramatically rising ad costs (e.g., Walmart) amid declining real traffic, meaning brands must scrutinize where ads are placed and insist on clear attribution.

Attribution Setups and Practical Best Practices

Concrete Advice for Brands

• Cheat code: Just setting up an ad account (even without spend) can help brands gain platform visibility and ad test credits. (11:02)
• Get to 'signals optimal’: Enable robust conversion API tracking (especially for WooCommerce/Shopify).
• Use in-platform lead forms: Lower friction and yield more accurate consumer data compared to website forms.

  “People give Instagram their real email. They give lead forms a fake email.” (11:53)

• You can only optimize so much if the top-of-funnel setup is broken: “It's like exercising a bad diet, right? You can't do it.” (12:29)

The Honey Controversy: Attribution Fraud in Affiliate

What Happened and Why It Matters

• Honey, a browser extension, was found overwriting other affiliates’ and creators’ pixels, diverting attribution and violating network terms.
• Honey programmed its extension not to overwrite if competitor cookies were detected—evidence of intent.

  “I've never seen a browser extension that's driven incremental sales ... almost none drive incremental clicks.” (13:20)

• Mega Lag and Ben Edelman exposed this with data and YouTube investigations.
• The scale: Huge user losses for Honey (6 million dropped users), and only when user volume plummeted did networks begin kicking them out.

  “Honey's not driving meaningful traffic anymore. If they were... we would be finding reasons to keep them alive on all these networks.” (17:12)

Industry Complacency and Complicity

• Networks and brands tolerated Honey’s behavior because it was easier than managing hundreds of smaller partners.

  “Laziness drives a huge amount of this. Like not wanting to do extra work is where a lot of these problems come out.” (19:57)

• For brands, Honey's last-click stealing actually cheapened their acquisition costs compared to negotiating with pricey creators.

Lessons from Coupon Sites vs Browser Extensions

• Coupon sites like RetailMeNot required active user engagement (increased incrementality), while browser extensions passively intercept without real user intent.
• Holdout tests by RetailMeNot showed measurable value; similar user engagement wasn’t apparent for extensions.

The Consequences

• Market forces (not ethics) forced action: “There’s just no money in telling Honey to go away … it's one of the ethics tests that we as a species really keep failing repeatedly.” (27:29)
• Toolbars and downloadable partners (like Honey, Capital One Shopping) are likely on their way out, especially as platforms (Google, Microsoft) tighten reporting rules.

What’s Next for Affiliate, Attribution, and Network Models?

Trends and Industry Predictions

• Attribution will get more sophisticated—brands will move beyond last-click towards multi-touch and exposure-based models.
• Platforms like YouTube, Meta, and TikTok are creating or scaling their own direct affiliate ecosystems, threatening the old “network” intermediaries.

  “If I'm at a Nike, it's far better for me to have a YouTube or creator team … Brands that get in early would naturally move away from a CJ or an Impact.” (29:15)

• Publishers without direct, loyal audiences are at greatest risk.

  “If I do not have an audience that I actually own and who is coming to me voluntarily, that is very scary.” (31:11)

The Third Wave of Affiliate

• Wave 1: Email marketing; Wave 2: Coupon sites and ecommerce; Wave 3: Social commerce and creator-led affiliate.
• Power is shifting to creators with engaged audiences delivering persistent, high-quality UGC and reviews.

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• “All roads lead back to YouTube.” — Cormac Jonas (07:12)
• “Treat it like the farmer’s market—buy direct, know your source.” — Cormac Jonas (10:04)
• “It’s like exercising a bad diet, right? You can’t do it ... You can optimize your campaigns as well as you want. But if you’re throttling the amount of discovery you have at the top with crappy settings … it’s not going to benefit you.” — Cormac Jonas (12:29)
• “I've never seen a browser extension that's driven incremental sales ... almost none drive incremental clicks.” — Cormac Jonas (13:20)
• “Honey’s not driving meaningful traffic anymore ... If they were... we would be finding reasons to keep them alive on all these networks.” — Cormac Jonas (17:12)
• “Laziness drives a huge amount of this ... not wanting to do extra work is where a lot of these problems come out.” — Cormac Jonas (19:57)
• “It’s one of the ethics tests that we as a species really keep failing repeatedly. We can trust them to do the right thing, right? No, literally we can never trust them to do the right thing ever.” — Cormac Jonas (27:29)
• “If I do not have an audience that I actually own and who is coming to me voluntarily, that is very scary. And those folks in the affiliate space should be very worried.” — Cormac Jonas (31:11)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• TikTok Attribution Misconceptions: 02:22 – 03:58
• 2025 Performance Marketing Trends (Google/Meta): 04:36 – 07:49
• YouTube’s Ascendance: 07:12 – 08:15
• Fraud and Bot Traffic in Programmatic: 08:27 – 09:49
• Recommendations for Attribution and Lead Gen: 11:02 – 12:29
• Honey Saga Explained: 13:20 – 17:12
• Networks’ Complicity and Affiliate Industry Risk: 17:12 – 20:30
• Future of Networks, Toolbars, and Platform-Owned Affiliates: 27:29 – 29:15
• Publisher & Creator Landscape, and Third Wave of Affiliate: 31:11 – 34:22

Final Takeaways & Cormac’s 2026 Outlook

• Brands must build robust attribution frameworks, invest in direct audience engagement, and continually audit for fraud and misattribution.
• Creators and publishers with loyal audiences will win as affiliate shifts from middlemen to direct platform integration.
• The next wave is all about video, UGC, and full-funnel measurement—Cormac highlights client success with YouTube, even for local verticals (e.g., $10M ARR for a plumber through YouTube content).

  “It changes their entire operating procedure and it's super fun to watch.” (34:59)

Summary prepared for listeners seeking deep insight and actionable takeaways without industry buzz or fluff.