American History Hotline – "Why Do Third Parties Fail?"

Podcast: American History Hotline
Host: Bob Crawford
Guest: Dr. Michael Cullinan (Professor, Dickinson State University; author of Theodore Roosevelt and the Tennis Cabinet)
Date: September 3, 2025

Overview

In this episode, host Bob Crawford and guest historian Dr. Michael Cullinan take on a listener question from Phil in Lincoln, NE: “Why do third party presidential bids always fail? Why can’t we elect a president outside of the two party system?” The discussion ranges from the origins of the American two-party system, historical “near-miss” and spoiler third party candidates, the mechanics of the U.S. electoral system, international alternatives, and whether the current moment is ripe for a major third party shake-up.

Key Discussion Points & Expert Insights

1. The Roots of the American Two-Party System

(04:22–06:07)

• The U.S. wasn’t designed for just two parties; the system developed organically over time, influenced by vested interests and “first-past-the-post” electoral rules.
• Notable exception: the Republican Party itself started as a third party and won the presidency with Abraham Lincoln in 1860 during a period of political fragmentation.
• Quote (Michael Cullinan, 04:40):

  “The Republicans, they’d only been around for about six years at that stage. So they were a third party... Abraham Lincoln won because there were two other parties that were also vying for electoral votes.”

• In modern history, third parties disrupt elections but haven't won since Lincoln.

2. How "Winner-Take-All" Shapes Outcomes

(06:07–07:12)

• The U.S. system awards all electoral votes in a state to whoever wins a plurality, making it hard for smaller parties to compete.
• Third parties often act as spoilers, swinging victories between the two main parties without winning themselves (e.g., Ross Perot in 1992, Theodore Roosevelt in 1912, Anderson in 1980).

3. The International Angle: Proportional Representation and Ranked Choice

(07:12–09:27)

• European parliamentary systems, especially with proportional representation or ranked choice voting (like Ireland), enable success for minor parties and coalitions.
• Single-winner offices (like U.S. presidency) still favor two main candidates, even in Europe.
• Quote (Michael Cullinan, 08:48):

  “In Ireland it is ranked choice voting and it is a proportional representation... there’s just a lot more representation and a greater chance of your vote counting towards someone who’s from a smaller party.”

4. What Do “Independents” Stand For?

(09:27–11:16)

• In the U.S., being "independent" simply means not being registered with a party, not that all independents share a common platform.
• Party affiliation offers access to campaign infrastructure and a broad political "church" to express ideas; pure independents generally lack this network.

5. When Third Parties Break Through: The Lincoln & GOP Example

(12:20–14:11)

• True third-party breakthroughs depend on “singular issues” that galvanize a crisis (e.g., slavery, abolition in the 1860s).
• Historical party collapses (Federalists, then Whigs) followed such moments, giving rise to new dominant parties.

6. Is 2025 a “Crisis Moment” for the System?

(14:11–15:22)

• Both major parties seem weak and divided; the Republican Party has evolved, and the Democratic Party is struggling with approval.

• Quote (Bob Crawford, 14:11):

  "It seems like the grievance is there, right?... Are we there? Is the time ripe for a third party?”

• Cullinan’s take (15:22):

  “Yeah, I mean, I think one can succeed... Two previous major collapses of parties were... precipitated by a major shift in Americans’ sense of themselves. ...We might be there, too. ...It does seem like we’re one economic depression away from a real shift in thinking.”

7. Do Money and Organization Matter Most?

(17:02–18:32)

• Money is vital, but a single, urgent issue trumps fundraising—Trump’s 2016 run is cited as an example.
• To break into major contention, a third party needs both an organizational network and a crisis issue that resonates.

Case Studies: Famous Third Parties and Spoilers

Theodore Roosevelt & the Bull Moose/Progressive Party (1912)

(22:45–29:44)

• Roosevelt formed the Progressive (“Bull Moose”) Party after the Republican convention snubbed him for being too progressive compared to Taft.

• Quote (Cullinan, 23:36):

  “Taft is Roosevelt’s handpicked successor... but TR picked someone [less charismatic]... and within months, his friends are telling him how badly Taft is running the administration.”

• Party platform included direct election of senators, inheritance taxes, workers comp, national healthcare—ideas ahead of their time.

• Result: TR outperformed Taft but both lost to Wilson; however, the Progressive platform shifted the Democrats leftward.

  Summary Table: 1912 Election Results

  • Wilson (Democrat): ~41%
  • Roosevelt (Progressive): ~27%
  • Taft (Republican): ~23%
  • Debs (Socialist): ~5%

Ross Perot (1992 & 1996)

(30:02–36:41)

• Perot, a Texas billionaire, capitalized on economic discontent and deficit concern to mount a strong independent campaign in 1992. He dropped out, re-entered, and ultimately failed to win electoral votes but pulled nearly 19% of the popular vote, affecting the Clinton/Bush outcome. Seen as a forerunner for candidates like Trump and Buchanan.
• Quote (Cullinan, 30:45):

  “Perot was a sort of squeaky billionaire... obviously super clever... people were attracted to [the idea] that business people are better suited to making big decisions.”

• His campaign focused on the deficit (not previously a dominant issue), mirroring today’s economic anxiety and outsider appeal.

Ralph Nader (2000)

(37:04–39:36)

• Ran on Green Party, focused on environmentalism and consumer protection.
• Often blamed for “spoiling” the 2000 election for Al Gore by attracting votes in swing states like Florida, but Cullinan calls this an oversimplification:
  Quote (Cullinan, 37:27):

  “I don’t think Ralph Nader deserves any of this sort of credit for tipping the election to George W. Bush... When it comes down to 536 votes, you could have easily blamed anyone.”

Contemporary Third Party Possibilities

Is Now the Moment? The Elon Musk/America Party Example

(39:36–42:26)

• Tech billionaire Elon Musk showed interest in forming a new "America Party" and spent heavily in swing states, but lacked a focused issue or candidate and hasn't gained traction—yet.
• Quote (Cullinan, 41:15):

  “Money can’t buy you everything. And I’d be interested to see if Elon Musk can find an issue so committed to that galvanizes support. But free speech isn’t it.”

• Deficit/debt concerns rise with crises; if an economic collapse occurs, a new third party could fill the vacuum.
• Musk’s current efforts are seen more as distraction or positioning than a true movement.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the “broad church” of parties:
  (Cullinan, 09:50):

  “Within that definition, there are various shades of red and blue, so much so that you might even be purple... Being independent and lacking that party system does make it harder because there’s no organization.”

• On the importance of singular issues:
  (Cullinan, 12:20):

  “What makes a third party successful is a single issue... when third party candidates have their greatest moments is when there’s a singular crisis.”

• On party breakdowns and historical precedents:
  (Cullinan, 15:22):

  “Both of those were precipitated by a major shift in Americans sense of themselves... are we at a trauma that’s like the Civil War? ...We're not quite there yet, but it does seem awfully close.”

• On third parties’ effect:
  (Cullinan, 27:02):

  “They force other parties to take up some of their issues in order to command their voters.”

• Comic relief:
  (36:41–37:04):

  “Dana Carvey’s impression of Bush—like when he goes to Japan and throws up on the Prime Minister’s shoes. That Saturday Night Live skit was priceless and no doubt had some impact on how Americans thought about the president.”

Outlook for 2028 and Beyond

(43:16–44:43)

• Major parties will almost certainly retain their place, but Libertarian and Green parties will appear, as always. If a third party can galvanize 5%+ in a crisis, they’ll achieve federal funding and increase relevance.
• Quote (Cullinan, 43:43):

  “If we have a crisis in America... you will almost certainly see a third party run.”

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Origins of Two-Party System & Lincoln’s Win: 04:22–06:07
• “Winner Takes All” and Spoiler Effect: 06:07–07:12
• Proportional Representation & Ranked Choice Voting: 07:12–09:27
• What is “Independent”?: 09:27–11:16
• Lincoln as Third Party Candidate & Party Shifts: 12:20–14:11
• Are We in a Crisis Moment? Could a Third Party Succeed?: 14:11–15:22, 17:02–18:32
• Teddy Roosevelt & the Bull Moose Party: 22:45–29:44
• Ross Perot & 1990s Party Upheaval: 30:02–36:41
• Ralph Nader & the 2000 Election: 37:04–39:36
• The Present and the “America Party”: 39:36–42:26
• Party Prospects for 2028: 43:16–44:43

Final Thoughts

Third parties in the U.S. have managed to disrupt, re-shape platform agendas, and, in rare historic moments, become new major parties. But the "winner-take-all" electoral system, broad tent ideologies, and lack of galvanizing crisis keep them in the role of spoiler rather than victor. The country’s political fragility and the restless electorate continue to suggest that, while unlikely, another seismic realignment may still be possible—if enough people get angry over the same issue at the same time.

Notable Signoff (Michael Cullinan, 44:59):

“Thanks, Bob. Thanks for having me.”