American History Hotline: "Would Lincoln Be a Republican Today?"

Host: Bob Crawford
Guest: Julian Zelizer (Princeton University historian, author, and political analyst)
Release Date: July 16, 2025

Overview

This episode dives into the provocative and often-debated question: Would Abraham Lincoln still be a Republican if he were alive today? Host Bob Crawford is joined by historian Julian Zelizer to unpack party realignment, ideological shifts, and the long historical journey from Lincoln’s GOP to today’s Republican and Democratic parties. Together, they explore how and when party identities changed, what drives those changes, and what Lincoln himself might make of contemporary American politics.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Framing the Question ([03:28]-[03:50])

• Multiple listeners, including an 8th grade history teacher, ask:
  • “Which party would Lincoln most identify with today?”
  • “How does Lincoln's radical Republican party of the 1860s become the conservative Republican Party that we see today?”

2. Modern Party Ideologies Explained ([04:15]-[05:34])

• Julian Zelizer:
  • The modern Republican Party: "anti-government... resistant to many social justice initiatives... increasingly skeptical of international alliances and commitments."
  • The modern Democratic Party: "more committed to government solutions... supports post-WWII international alliances... on board with the social revolution of the 1960s, civil rights, feminism, immigration."
  • Notable quote:

    "Democrats remain a party of government... Republicans are much more skeptical of government power." ([04:36])

3. Party Realignment & The Southern Strategy ([05:34]-[09:09])

• Bob Crawford contextualizes by referencing Nixon and the "Southern Strategy":
  • Shift began in the late 1960s–early 1970s, as Republicans sought to attract conservative Southern Democrats upset by civil rights advances.
• Julian Zelizer:
  • "The Southern Strategy" was about Republicans courting Southern white voters disaffected by the Democrats’ support for civil rights.
  • The alliance between Republicans and Southern Democrats first took root in Congress long before Nixon popularized it in presidential politics.
  • Notable quote:

    "That's when the Southern Strategy really accelerates in a way that we hadn't seen before in presidential politics." ([07:41])

• Nixon as a transitional figure:
  • Supported New Deal-era bureaucratic institutions (EPA, OSHA) because of a Democratic Congress, not necessarily personal conviction.
  • The definition of "conservative" has changed: Nixon was conservative “relative to his time,” but still accepted government’s big role.

4. Foreign Policy Shifts ([09:09]-[11:10])

• Reagan-era GOP: strong international engagement, anti-communism, “muscular overseas” policy.
• Recent years: "America First" gains traction, skepticism toward NATO and international institutions grows—"this is really only... since 9/11... it's become the dominant mode of Republican thinking." ([10:49])

5. Lincoln’s Republican Party & Its Core Values ([11:10]-[12:36])

• Julian Zelizer: Lincoln’s GOP was about:
  • Commitment to union
  • Abolition of slavery
  • Reconstruction and support for freed Black Americans (post-Lincoln)
  • Strong regional association: "the party of Lincoln was a Northern party."
• On Lincoln’s legacy:

  “By his death… [Lincoln’s party] was committed to union, abolition of slavery, and reconstruction—helping the freed black population and creating a more just society.” ([11:28])

6. Democratic Party in the 19th Century ([12:36]-[14:15])

• Diverse and regionally split: Northern Democrats focused on immigrants and urban machines; Southern Democrats on the slave economy and opposition to Reconstruction.
• Post-Civil War, Democrats were the party of the South and opposition to federal intervention.

7. The Nature of Party Change: Abrupt or Slow? ([14:15]-[18:46])

• Example: The GOP switch from pro-free trade (NAFTA era) to Trump’s tariffs was abrupt, while skepticism toward alliances was a slow “burn.”
• Party transitions sometimes sudden; other times incremental.
• On tariffs:

  “With the tariffs, it’s rightfully a pretty big shift… Not only the economic effects, but this is not what a lot of the party stands for.” ([15:41])

• Many Republican lawmakers must now reconcile prior free-trade positions with new party orthodoxy.

8. Forces Driving Party Change ([18:46]-[23:53])

• Internal and external pressures:
  • Evolving coalitions (e.g., Southern Democrats to suburban, coastal Democrats)
  • Ideological shifts—like GOP moving from free trade to economic intervention
  • “Leaders match up and sync up with changing electoral preferences… but they’re not just making it out of fresh air.” ([22:53])
• Trump’s completion of a transition to a new kind of GOP coalition: white, working-class, rural, often male voters.

9. Radicalization and Rhetoric ([23:53]-[25:40])

• Rhetoric once considered subtly coded (e.g., “welfare queens” as a racial signal) is now overt.
• Julian Zelizer:

  “What we've seen is some of those guardrails, whether they're moral, ethical or... political, have fallen away. And I don't think Republicans in 2025 feel the need to be very subtle about some of these issues... That change has been really, really significant and it's very defining right now.” ([24:44])

10. Democratic Party Today ([28:50]-[31:39])

• Democratic base has shifted: Suburban, college-educated, and coastal voters are now more central than unionized or Southern voters.
• Since Carter and Clinton, economic policy moves to the center; some acceptance of markets and "neoliberalism."
• Still fundamentally "the party of FDR" in terms of belief in federal intervention.

11. Should the Democratic Party Change? ([31:39]-[34:38])

• Post-2024 loss not catastrophic; some changes needed, but “not a crisis.”
• Julian’s take:

  “That’s different than saying it’s a crisis. You have to overhaul everything. This is a party that still has a pretty big electoral reach. It’s a party that won in 2020. In 2024, they lost, but they were not decimated.” ([32:13])

12. Founders and the Dangers of Party ([34:38]-[37:24])

• George Washington warned about "faction" in his farewell address.
• Despite wishful thinking, parties were there from the start and serve a vital, if sometimes divisive, function.
• Notable quote:

  “Parties have served a function, they have represented those differences, and when they work well, they're a healthy institution, and that's why they've been here forever.” ([35:46])

13. On the Possibility of a Trump Third Term ([37:24]-[38:41])

• Zelizer: “If he says he's going to do something, I believe he's going to do it.”
• Suggests there’s a serious possibility of a Trump attempt for a third term, noting this would challenge the intent of the 22nd Amendment and constitutional norms.

14. The Central Question: Would Lincoln Be a Republican? ([38:41]-[39:54])

• Bob Crawford: “Does [Lincoln] run as a Republican or as a Democrat?”
• Julian Zelizer:

  “If he was running today... he would fit much more comfortably in where the Democratic Party is than the Republican Party and certainly the Republican Party of Trump. It’s hard to envision, given what he did and given the battle he fought... that he would... feel like the GOP is his party anymore.” ([39:21])

Notable Quotes

• Julian Zelizer ([04:36]):
  "The Republican Party in our era is a party that's anti-government... the Democratic Party still is more committed to... the civil rights revolution, the feminist revolution, the immigration revolution."
• Julian Zelizer ([07:41]):
  "That's when the Southern Strategy really accelerates in a way that we hadn't seen before in presidential politics."
• Julian Zelizer ([11:28]):
  “By his death… [Lincoln’s party] was committed to union, abolition of slavery, and reconstruction.”
• Julian Zelizer ([22:53]):
  “Leaders match up and sync up with changing electoral preferences and sometimes stimulate and energize those elements. But they're not just making it out of fresh air usually.”
• Julian Zelizer ([24:44]):
  “What we've seen is some of those guardrails… have fallen away. I don't think Republicans in 2025 feel the need to be very subtle about some of these issues.”
• Julian Zelizer ([32:13]): "That’s different than saying it’s a crisis. You have to overhaul everything. This is a party that still has a pretty big electoral reach."
• Julian Zelizer ([35:46]): “Parties have served a function, they have represented those differences, and when they work well, they're a healthy institution... and the best thing we have at this point in dealing with these divisions.”
• Julian Zelizer ([39:21]): "If [Lincoln] was running today... he would fit much more comfortably in where the Democratic Party is than the Republican Party and certainly the Republican Party of Trump."

Timestamps for Major Segments

• [02:40] – Bob introduces the question: Lincoln and party identity.
• [04:15] – Primer on current party ideologies.
• [05:34] – Nixon, the Southern Strategy, and party realignment.
• [09:09] – From Nixon to Trump: Conservative evolution and foreign policy shifts.
• [11:10] – Lincoln’s GOP: ideology and voter base in the 1860s.
• [12:36] – The 19th-century Democratic Party explained.
• [14:57] – How parties shift positions (tariffs, free trade, alliances).
• [18:46] – What drives party change: voters or leaders?
• [23:53] – From subtle to overt: radicalization of rhetoric.
• [28:50] – Democratic Party’s transformation and core values.
• [31:39] – Current challenges and prospects for Democrats.
• [34:38] – Washington’s view of parties and America’s factional reality.
• [37:24] – The real threat: centralized, unchecked executive power.
• [38:41] – Would Lincoln be a Republican or Democrat today?

Tone & Style

Bob Crawford’s tone remains inquisitive, approachable, and often self-deprecating, while Julian Zelizer offers measured, nuanced, and deeply historical analysis, punctuated by clear examples and direct conclusions. The conversation balances historical context with contemporary relevance, addressing political changes with both scholarly rigor and accessibility for listeners.

Conclusion

This episode provides a comprehensive, engaging, and timely exploration of how and why American political parties have transformed—and what that means for the legacy of figures like Abraham Lincoln. Ultimately, Julian Zelizer concludes that Lincoln, if alive today, would find himself more aligned with the modern Democratic Party than with the contemporary GOP. The analysis serves as both a primer on party evolution and a thought-provoking response to the titular question.