Gordon Chang Breaks Down Trump-Xi Summit and What’s Next

Summary

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American Thought Leaders – Podcast Summary

Episode Title: Gordon Chang Breaks Down Trump-Xi Summit and What’s Next
Host: Jan Jekielek, The Epoch Times
Guest: Gordon Chang, China Analyst
Date: May 23, 2026

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Episode Overview

In this episode, China analyst Gordon Chang joins host Jan Jekielek for an in-depth discussion on the recent Trump-Xi summit, the state of US-China relations, and the shifting geopolitical landscape. The conversation explores the real dynamics between Washington and Beijing post-summit, information warfare, economic leverage, and the broader implications for Taiwan and the global order. Chang provides critical analysis of both leaders' actions and strategies, while highlighting the risks, propaganda battles, and future challenges facing both nations.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Trump-Xi Summit: Realities & Reactions

• Substance and Uncertainty

  • Unlike typical US-China summits, the recent Trump-Xi meeting was not pre-scripted; the outcomes remain unclear and historians may analyze this event for years.

    “We don’t know at this stage… Everything’s decided beforehand. This one wasn’t, which means that Trump was negotiating really important and substantive matters on hostile territory without a script.”
    (Gordon Chang, 01:22)

• Power Dynamics

  • Chang argues that Trump came in stronger due to China’s economic and demographic crises, weakened military, and internal party disarray. The US remains self-sufficient, while China must import key resources.

    “China right now is in distress… You have a military which has been decimated… [but] fundamentally, you have a China which needs to import large amounts of energy and food. The US in contrast, we’re self-sufficient in both.”
    (Gordon Chang, 02:20)

2. Propaganda, Information Warfare, and Perception

• Xi Jinping’s Arrogance and Security Theatre

  • Despite projecting confidence, Xi's posturing appears insecure, especially symbolic gestures (like seating Trump in a lower chair), reflecting regime anxiety.

    “Xi Jinping was extremely arrogant this time… But this was not a confident Xi Jinping… really reveals an insecurity on the part of the Chinese.”
    (Gordon Chang, 04:26)

• China’s Propaganda Success

  • Chang calls out the US for falling behind in the information war due to disbanding outlets like Voice of America and failing to combat China’s digital influence through platforms like TikTok.

    “Xi Jinping has been beating the crap out of us in the information warfare space, and that’s our fault… in the United States, you have a whole generation of kids who… are marching in favor of rape, brutality, murder, genocide. I mean, this is inconceivable…”
    (Gordon Chang, 06:40)

3. Economic Leverage and American Business in China

• CEO Delegation: Intimidation or Vulnerability?

  • Trump’s decision to bring major CEOs to Beijing was initially criticized by Chang, but he later notes it worked as a tactic to unsettle Xi. However, continued US corporate exposure to China remains a problem.

    “Trump used [CEOs] quite effectively… But nonetheless, we do need to delink our economies because China uses every point of contact to take our society down.”
    (Gordon Chang, 10:06)

• Chinese Leverage: Rare Earths and Pharmaceuticals

  • China holds a “chokehold” over rare earths (92% of world processing) and pharmaceuticals (monopoly on about 800+ products used in the US).

    “China has 100% monopoly on about 800, maybe 850 pharmaceuticals that Americans use. That’s an astounding chokehold.”
    (Gordon Chang, 27:13)

4. Security, Espionage, and Trust Issues

• Surveillance Concerns
  • US officials discarded electronics and gifts before leaving the summit to avoid Chinese espionage—an indicator of deep mistrust.

    “Before officials got onto Air Force One, they had to give up everything… even the non-electronic stuff. So it was good. It showed you the lack of trust…”
    (Gordon Chang, 15:18)

5. Taiwan: Flashpoint and Bargaining Chip

• Historic Phone Call?

  • Trump’s public promise to call the Taiwan president (unprecedented since 1979) angered Beijing but may never materialize. Chang warns it’s already causing diplomatic fallout.

    “For Trump to say that in public by itself… triggered a lot of anger in the Chinese capital. Good for us.”
    (Gordon Chang, 16:07)

• Arms Sales and Messaging

  • Chang urges the US to proceed with arms sales to Taiwan to show resolve; failure would embolden Beijing and unnerve allies.

    “If we don’t go forward with that $14 billion arms sale, it’ll say to the world that China owns the United States… this is critical.”
    (Gordon Chang, 16:07)

• US Policy and Framing

  • Chang criticizes framing Taiwan as a problem and warns against adopting China’s narratives.

    “Taiwan is already independent… And for the president of the United States to frame this in the way China does… it’s just wrong.”
    (Gordon Chang, 16:07)

6. The Thucydides Trap and China’s True Trajectory

• Debunking the Inevitable War Narrative

  • The widely cited “Thucydides Trap” and accommodative policies have made China more aggressive, as seen in the South China Sea.

    “By doing that [accommodation], we have made the Chinese more aggressive. We’ve emboldened the worst aspects of the Chinese character.”
    (Gordon Chang, 21:33)

• China Not a Rising Power

  • Chang argues China’s economic model is faltering, with declining consumption and increased dependence on exports to the US.

    “China is not rising… Only way the Chinese economy can grow is to export more… Xi Jinping has put his fate into the hands of other countries, especially the United States.”
    (Gordon Chang, 24:06)

7. Global Geopolitics: Alliances and Shifting Sands

• Western Hemisphere and Beyond

  • Trump’s policies are pushing China out of Latin America and the Middle East, ending China’s access to cheap oil and strategic outposts.

    “Trump is giving the Chinese a really hard time, pushing them out of the Western Hemisphere, pushing them out of the Middle East… making the decisions in the world.”
    (Gordon Chang, 00:00; 27:13; 29:50)

• Japan and Regional Alliances

  • Chinese hostility is driving historic US-Japan and Taiwan partnerships; Chang notes Chinese diplomacy is backfiring and uniting US allies.

    “Xi Jinping is making this much worse… He’s driving all these countries into the arms of Washington. We couldn’t devise a better foreign policy if we tried.”
    (Gordon Chang, 35:02)

8. AI & Tech Cooperation: Non-Starter

• Risks of Collaborating with China
  • Chang is adamant that collaboration with Beijing on AI or nuclear negotiations is dangerous and unworkable due to bad-faith actors and unenforceable agreements.

    “Yes, we do need guidelines [on AI]… But the way to get there is for the US to win the AI race… You can’t promise enforcement.”
    (Gordon Chang, 42:06)

9. Assessing China’s Superpower Status

• Not a Superpower Anymore
  • Chang asserts that while China once had global reach, its rapid decline in multiple domains means it no longer qualifies as a true superpower.

    “China is a rapidly failing society now… There is only a G1, there is only one superpower, and it ain’t China.”
    (Gordon Chang, 49:14; 51:45)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Information Warfare:
  “Xi Jinping has been beating the crap out of us in the information warfare space, and that’s our fault.” (Gordon Chang, 06:40)

• On China's Real Power:
  “Although we're a far more powerful society than China, we can lose our country because we’re not defending it with the vigor and determination that's necessary.” (Gordon Chang, 48:31)

• On Trump's Approach:
  “Trump is actually implementing [the National Security Strategy]… Not Trump. Trump is actually, he’s going forward with it, he made the Western Hemisphere his number one priority, and he’s been acting on that.” (Gordon Chang, 38:47)

• On Superpower Reality:
  “If you want to talk in G numbers… say G1, because that is the reality… There is only one superpower, and it ain’t China.” (Gordon Chang, 24:06, 51:45)

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Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• Strength and Weakness: Power Dynamics at the Summit – 01:11–04:02
• Xi Jinping’s Arrogance, Propaganda, and Insecurity – 04:26–06:40
• Information Warfare and TikTok Influence – 06:40–08:07
• Trump, CEOs, and Economic Tactics – 10:06–12:18
• Security, Espionage, and Trust Issues – 15:18–15:42
• Taiwan Policy, Arms Sales, and US Messaging – 15:42–19:48
• Thucydides Trap and China’s Aggressiveness – 20:56–23:52
• China’s Economic Deterioration Argument – 24:06–26:15
• Rare Earths and Pharmaceutical Leverage – 27:13–29:19
• US Policy Shifting Global Alliances – 29:19–35:02
• AI Cooperation is a Non-Starter – 41:38–45:38
• Superpower Status and Future Outlook – 48:31–51:45

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Final Thoughts

Gordon Chang paints a picture of a deeply troubled China, increasingly outmaneuvered by Trump’s administration but still posing major challenges for the US due to its global leverage, propaganda reach, and determination to disrupt. He is adamant that America needs renewed vigilance, assertiveness, and a clear-eyed strategic approach to blunt China’s influence—and that real diplomatic solutions require recognizing the nature of the Communist regime. Ultimately, Chang insists that US strength and values provide the ultimate leverage, and that the narrative of a rising China is overstated and fading.

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Transcript

[Gordon Chang]

Trump is giving the Chinese a really hard time, pushing them out of the Western Hemisphere, pushing them out of the Middle East.

[Jan Kellogg]

In this episode, I sit down with China analyst Gordon Chang to understand what really unfolded at the Trump Xi talks and where the real leverage lies between Washington and Beijing.

[Gordon Chang]

Xi Jinping has been beating the crap out of us in the information warfare space, and that's our fault.

[Jan Kellogg]

Will Trump call Taiwan President Lai, as he's promised? Do you have any plans to call President Lai of Taiwan? I'll speak to him.

[Gordon Chang]

I speak to everybody.

[Jan Kellogg]

And be the first sitting US president to make such a call in 47 years.

[Gordon Chang]

I think the United States in general should just say to Xi Jinping, Taiwan's none of your business.

[Jan Kellogg]

How are shifting alliances reshaping the geopolitical chessboard, and how close are we to a major confrontation?

[Gordon Chang]

China is far more powerful than Osama bin Laden ever was. So we got to recognize that although we're a far more powerful society than China, we can lose our country.

[Jan Kellogg]

This is American Thought Leaders, and I'm Jania Kellogg. Gordon Chang, such a pleasure to have you back on American Thought Leaders.

[Gordon Chang]

Thank you so much, Jan.

[Jan Kellogg]

There are such different readouts on what happened during this Trump Xi meeting recently, and I just want to get your take on it. What do you think really happened?

[Gordon Chang]

We don't know at this stage. For most US China summits, they're canned. Everything's decided beforehand. This one wasn't, which means that Trump was negotiating really important and substantive matters on hostile territory without a script. We know that the readouts between the White House and China are different in some respects, but the thing here is that we don't know what they talked about. And so this is only going to become evident weeks, months down the road. And I think that historians are going to be talking about this summit for quite some time, because in some respects, it was historic. So I think that there's a lot we don't know right now.

[Jan Kellogg]

People are saying that Xi had the upper hand, that Trump had the upper hand. I mean, some really divergent analyses that it's difficult to comport. How do you see it?

[Gordon Chang]

Well, Trump certainly had the upper hand. He represented the far stronger country. China right now is in distress. Its economy, as we can see from the April numbers, could very well be contracting. If it's not contracting, it's growing at a very low pace, and China needs very high growth in order to deal with the debt that it's accumulated, especially since the 2008 downturn. You have a China which is demographically it's in the collapse. It now has 1.4 billion people, as officially reported by the turn of the century. It's going to lose half its population, maybe two thirds. This is the biggest demographic collapse in history in the absence of war. So we just don't know what's going to happen. The Chinese people are really unhappy at this point. They're pessimistic, they're opting out of society. They're. You have a military which has been decimated by Xi Jinping's purges. The Communist Party is in disarray. But fundamentally, you have a China which needs to import large amounts of energy and food. The U.S. in contrast, we're self sufficient in both of those. We're the largest producer of oil and gas in history. So, you know, there's just no question about it. I know a lot of people don't like President Trump, but they need to come to some balanced assessments of what's going on. Now, this is not to say that President Trump did better at the summit. It's just to say that coming in, even though he was traveling to China, he had the upper hand.

[Jan Kellogg]

You know, one thing I noticed at the summit, thinking back to nine years ago, and you indicate kind of one area that's changed, I do think the US Position has increased, if you will, and I think that's what you were suggesting here. But what about this great pomp that we saw? I think it was much more significant than the last time. What's your take?

[Gordon Chang]

Yeah, I haven't looked at the 2017 arrival ceremony, and it's probably about the same this time, maybe a little bit less, I don't know. But what is different though is Xi Jinping was extremely arrogant this time. And he had, I think, very few reasons to, you know, remember, Trump comes into the summit, he has been pushing China out of the Western hemisphere, He's been pushing China out of the Middle East. He's the one who is making the decisions in the world and he's driving events. And the Chinese are for the most part bystanders. But nonetheless, Xi Jinping wanted to play this very arrogant type figure and he actually convinced media around the world that he was in charge. Thursday, everyone talks about his comments on Thucydides Trap. I mean, that refers to a period where you have a declining hegemon dangerously challenges a rising power. And that has been the framing. But Xi Jinping was even much more arrogant than that because he used the phrase new era. New era is a time when China dominates the world, rules the World, maybe, and the US Is nowhere to be seen. So we have a very arrogant figure, and people sort of glommed onto that. But we got to remember this was not a confident Xi Jinping, because on Friday, when Trump went to Jongnan High, the leadership compound, the Chinese put him in that chair, which was lower than seize, and that was just silly. And I think that really reveals an insecurity on the part of the Chinese. So whatever vantages they got from Thursday, and remember, Trump, he was very confident. He didn't. He didn't reply to the insults. Whatever advantages the Chinese got on Thursday, I think they lost it on Friday.

[Jan Kellogg]

You know, I often say that one of the most powerful tools that the Chinese Communist Party uses is propaganda, and they're very, very, very good at it. And what you're describing seems to me at an attempt to develop this kind of messaging of Chinese success. Chinese Communist Party success.

[Gordon Chang]

Yes, they're very good at propaganda. Propaganda is very important for totalitarian regimes like China's. And Trump has disarmed the United States, unilaterally disarmed the United States in the information war, taking down Voice of America and Radio Free Asia. Yeah, there might have been problems at voa, but the solution is, is not to take the take it apart, but to reform it. And so Xi Jinping has been beating the crap out of us in the information warfare space, and that's our fault. We're just. We're just not fighting it. And we have seen how successful they are. I mean, in the United States, you have a whole generation of kids who, who are marching in favor of rape, brutality, murder, genocide. I mean, this is inconceivable, but we know why Xi Jinping has been able to use, for instance, TikTok. One of the more interesting statistics to come out of that platform is that of the videos on Hamas, 86.5% of them supported the terrorist group. So, yeah, we've got a real problem here, and Trump has got to figure it out fast because this is a very bad situation for us. I just don't know what to say, except I just hope that we understand that right now, information warfare accounts for a lot.

[Jan Kellogg]

Well, and the president has made a habit of, I think, praising all of the, by my estimation, kind of prime antagonists of America. This is. It's a curious thing. I view it as a bit of a negotiation strategy because, you know, it seems to me pretty clear that there's broad awareness that, you know, Kim Jong Un, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping are prime antagonists of America. The Actions that the US Is taking seem to me to make that pretty clear. But on the other hand, there's this lavish praise and not much reciprocation from Xi Jinping. This time.

[Gordon Chang]

Trump views Xi Jinping as a friend. As he says, this is either a complete misunderstanding of the nature of the relationship between China and the United States or just a gross miscalculation. But one thing we do know, John, and that is the American people don't like this. We can see this from what Americans say. But also Trump on Thursday, before the start of their substantive session, actually said it in his opening remarks that Americans don't like it when they. He praises Xi Jinping as a great leader. The one thing here is that we know that China, for instance, has been involved in the fentanyl gangs fully behind them. This is. These aren't overdoses, these are murders. Last year, 48,000Americans died from fentanyl. And the President of the United States needs to acknowledge that.

[Jan Kellogg]

You mentioned a bit about the economic reality of Communist China. And it seems like the President took, I think it's 17 of some of the wealthiest CEOs of the largest companies, not just in America, but in the world with him. What do you make of that?

[Gordon Chang]

Initially, I did not like the idea of Trump bringing CEOs to Beijing because in this period we should be trying to decrease the vulnerability of our companies to China, not increasing it. Xi Jinping has made it very clear that in his conception of China, there's really no place for foreign companies on a long term basis. But if you step back at it, you know, I thought, well, look, this is also a way to intimidate the Chinese. And in a way, Trump used them quite effectively, the CEOs. So for instance, Trump and, and Xi were in a. In one room, the CEOs were in the next, and completely off script. This is not something that Xi Jinping contemplated at all. Trump said, well, why don't we bring these guys in? And after some kerfuffle, Trump got his way and the chief executives came into the room and actually talked with Xi. So I sort of like that in the sense that Trump was unpredictable and what he was able to do was to sort of set the tune with them. It's been initially reported that these guys got very little from China during this trip, and that's to be expected. So they were, you know, in effect, props in this competition. And Trump used them effectively. But nonetheless, we do need to delink our economies because China uses every point of contact to take our society down. And one of these important points of contact are going to be the CEOs doing business in China. And this sort of leads us to one more thing, if I may, and that is Trump wants his Board of Investment. He wants Chinese investment into our country. That's absolutely the wrong thing. First of all, the American people don't want that. We can see that from the howls of people to this idea. But also these factories are going to be bases of subversion in our country. We're going to give more Americans reasons to support the Communist Party. This is just not good for the United States at all.

[Jan Kellogg]

Hey, so speaking of kerfuffles, actually, so there was a significant, at least one, if not several kerfuffles between the Secret Service and the Xi Jinping's security. What do you make of that in

[Gordon Chang]

these US China summits? Throughout the years there have been a lot of these disagreements and shoving matches between U.S. secret Service and Chinese security in these summits on Chinese soil. I'm not surprised it happened this time and it will continue to happen. The Chinese are just arrogant and we got to expect it. There's no real possibility of good relations with China as long as the Communist Party rules. So yeah, we're always going to have these problems if we have summits on Chinese soil. Which leads me to believe that this is another reason not to talk to the Chinese in Beijing.

[Jan Kellogg]

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[Gordon Chang]

You know, before officials got onto Air Force One, they had to give up everything. And it's not just electronics, but it's also these pins gifts. I'm sure that some of this equipment was bugged, even the non electronic stuff. So it was good. It showed you the lack of trust that we have. And, and, and I'm glad that the Chinese saw that.

[Jan Kellogg]

Let's talk about Taiwan. This is a very curious juxtaposition that I've noticed. One of them is that on the one hand we have basically a pause on the arms sales to Taiwan, which is interesting. And on the other hand we have the president, I believe, committing to a phone call with the Taiwanese president really for the first time, I think, in 47 odd years. What do you make of that?

[Gordon Chang]

There's a lot going on here, John. First of all, you're right. American president has not spoken to a Taiwan president since the breakoff of relations, 1979, 47 years. I'm not sure this phone call will actually take place. But for Trump to say that in public by itself is, got the Chinese upset. It's reporting that they have postponed Elbridge Colby's visit to, to China. He's the undersecretary of war. And so that that mere answer to a reporter's question has triggered a lot of anger in the Chinese capital. Good for us. But there's a lot here. So for instance, you know, the Chinese Foreign Ministry, they put out Xi Jinping's comments on Taiwan, really belligerent and hostile. Secretary of State Rubio after the meeting sort of put a different view on it. He said, well, look, they've, yeah, of course they always raise the issue of Taiwan. We always listen and then we move on. And that's what happened here, at least behind closed doors. But Trump made things a lot worse going back after the summit. He gave that interview to Brett Baer on Special Report, he talked about Taiwan arms sales as a negotiating chip for us. He said that he made it clear that China was going to be the one that determines whether we make these arms sales. I'm not sure that he was. He had intended to say that, but it's on tape. And, you know, he. He said all these other things about adopting China's framing on Taiwan that, that Taiwan is causing problems. It's changing the status quo. It wants to go independent. Well, this Taiwan is already independent. It has all the attributes of sovereignty in the 1933 Montevideo Convention. So. And Taiwan is not the one trying to change the status quo. China is, because it wants to annex Taiwan as its 34th province. And for the president of the United States to frame this in the way China does, especially when China frames it incorrectly, it's just wrong. Now, arms sales are going to be a really important topic here because if we don't go forward with that $14 billion arms sale, it will say that. It'll say to the world that China owns the United States. China makes American policy. President Trump has submitted to the intimidation of the Chinese. And that's not going to only unnerve Taiwan. It'll unnerve Japan and our other friends, and not just in the region, around the world. Because the question is, you know, what is the value of a relationship with the United States if the president of the US Is going to do what the Chinese tell him to do? So this is critical. Now, if Trump makes that arms sale announcement quickly, he's going to not only tell the Chinese that they don't own him, but he's also going to say to the Iranians, you better deal with the United States in good faith because the United States has a lot of strength. Now, Trump has the upper hand, but that's not to say that he's going to come out on top, as I mentioned, and the Chinese could just wipe the floor with him if he accedes to their demands on Taiwan.

[Jan Kellogg]

Well, again, in our conversation earlier about information warfare being so important to the Chinese Communist Party, this would be a very powerful weapon for them in that view.

[Gordon Chang]

Yeah, extremely powerful. It'll say the US Is an exhausted power, that China rules the world, that the US Is feeble. All of those narratives will appear to people and they'll resonate around the world. And you have to say there's reason why they should resonate if indeed Trump accedes to the Chinese on Taiwan arms sales. And think about this situation. Yeah, the Chinese are huffing and puffing, and they're blowing hard on Taiwan. But Xi Jinping has decimated the Chinese military. It's in no condition to launch hostilities with an invasion of the main island of Taiwan right now. So this is the perfect opportunity to make those arms sales because that will bolster deterrence and that will instill confidence in American leadership, as I said, not only in the region, but around the world. So we have every reason to make these arms sales. It's an opportunity. It's cost free. And, you know, I think the United States in general should just say to Xi Jinping, yeah, you're China and that's Taiwan, and Taiwan's none of your business.

[Jan Kellogg]

Lay out a little more of this Thucydides trap argument. Like this is something that the CCP has been using for a very long time, perhaps since Graham Ellison wrote the book about this, right? The US Being the declining power and China being the ascending power. And this inevitability in his view of war and China saying, no, we don't want that. But of course, we take for granted that we're the rising power and America is the declining power. But let's work together to prevent this problem. Anyway, that's how I read it. But I'd like you to kind of elucidate this piece a little more for me, please.

[Gordon Chang]

Graham Allison makes the argument that we need to accommodate China because it is the rising power. And as he looked through history, where you have a rising power and a declining hegemon, war results like two thirds of the time or something like that. So this book has become very influential in the Pentagon. And therefore, you know, we have acceded to the Chinese in many cases, but by doing that, we have made the Chinese more aggressive. We've emboldened the worst aspects of the Chinese character. Just give you an example. Go back to 2012 at Scarborough Shoal, which is 124 nautical miles from the main Philippine island of Luzon. It's obviously part of the Philippines. It's been part of the Philippines for time immemorial and it's very far from China, but it's within China's 10 dash line claim. So you have the Chinese, early 2012, they, they surged the area with their boats. The Philippines do the same thing. The Obama administration, they negotiate an agreement between Beijing and Manila where both sides withdraw their craft. Only the Philippines complies, and the Obama administration does nothing to enforce the agreement that they broker. Well, what happens? Well, you know, Obama didn't want to create a problem with the Chinese, so What did he do? The Chinese saw that he was weak, and they then pressed the advantage. They started pressing at second Thomas Shoal, another South China Sea feature of the Philippines. They started going after Japan in the Senkakus, which the Chinese have a very weak claim to, and they call them the Dalyus. And they start to rapidly militarize those coral reefs in the Spratlys. So the Chinese just went out and made the problem bigger because we showed them that aggression works. That's the result of Graham Allison's theory, where it's applied in practice, and it makes things worse. So Graham Allison has a lot to answer for as far as I'm concerned. Oh, and by the way, we do too, for listening to that ridiculous stuff.

[Jan Kellogg]

Well, it just. I'm not so convinced that China is the rising power at this moment. I mean, their propaganda certainly says that it is, but I'm seeing lots of indicators that. That. That it going in a different direction.

[Gordon Chang]

Yeah, China is not rising. And you can see it. I mean, you can go look at the economy and all sorts of things. Just to give you one example, Xi Jinping, he reveres Mao Zedong and he's, you know, he can't implement Maoist economic policies, but he can do a lot to undo what was implemented during the reform era. So we have now a Chinese economy that. Xi Jinping has turned his back on consumption. He does not believe consumption should be the basis of the Chinese economy. Now, consumption is the basis of most economies. In the U.S. it accounts for 68, 70% of gross domestic product. In China, it's 38, 39% of GDP, and it's going down. The reason why this is important is because it means that the only way the Chinese economy can grow is to export more. Now, they've been exporting and they've been doing very well last couple years, but they've sort of hit, I think, a wall. And that means Xi Jinping has put his fate into the hands of other countries, especially the United States, because we Americans account for 31, 32, 33% of global consumer spending. So he can't replace us with the, quote, unquote, global south. So if nothing else, that shows you that China is now more dependent on the. That's not a superpower. You know, Trump talks about the G2, which he did after the summit, but there's no G2. There's no G2 because China's not a superpower. There's only one superpower. It's the United States. And if you want to talk in G numbers. President Trump try this, say G1, because that is the reality. You have China falling away, and in, I'd say, couple years time, even Chinese propaganda will not be able to hide it, because these numbers that are coming out of the Chinese economy this year, they are very, very distressing.

[Jan Kellogg]

One way to interpret what President Trump is doing, I mean, he's been using this tariff regime quite extensively, even though it's, you know, there's some questions about how exactly it will continue given recent Supreme Court rulings and so forth, but he's been using it, clearly. We've seen the Chinese selling, starting to dump goods into Europe and other places because of the effectiveness of these tariffs. And the Chinese have also, under the Communist Party, developed some pretty significant leverage, whether it's the critical mineral processing, rare earths, whether it's the medical precursors, there's other points of leverage. So. So one way to interpret it could be that he's looking to get rid of those types, the leverage that the CCP has developed against America while bolstering the leverage that America has, you know, while talking nice, so to speak. What would you. What would you say to that?

[Gordon Chang]

China has two major cards. One of them is rare earths. They have 92% of the world's processing of rare earths occurs in China, and they mine substantial portions of the world's rare earths. The other one is an even bigger card, which we don't talk about as much, which is pharmaceuticals. If you look at the key starting materials and the active pharmaceutical ingredients, those are the building blocks of completed pharmaceuticals. China has 100% monopoly on about 800, maybe 850 pharmaceuticals that Americans use. That's an astounding chokehold. Now, China can't weaponize it, I think to the same extent that they can weaponize rare earths. But clearly those are two important cards. You're right. Trump is moving at Trump speed to reduce America's reliance on rare earths. And we're making some headway. Not nearly as much as we need, but we're making some headway on pharmaceuticals as well. So, yeah, Trump is talking nice to them while he's doing this. And remember, Trump is giving the Chinese a really hard time pushing them out of the Western Hemisphere, pushing them out of the Middle East. As I mentioned, Trump has a foreign policy that really is, I think, driving Beijing to the point where they just don't know what to do. I mean, they carp and they complain. We heard Xi Jinping and Putin complained about the US at their summit, which followed the Trump Xi Jinping summit. But the Chinese and the Russians can't do anything. And by the way, Russia, it's losing in Ukraine. Ukraine is taking back territory. It's flying its drones and hitting Russian energy infrastructure. These Ukrainian drones are even going and hitting targets in Moscow, for God's sakes. Things, I think if you look at them objectively, they say that Trump is driving world events and the Chinese and Russians are bystanders.

[Jan Kellogg]

So let's talk about the geopolitical dimension here. Okay? We have the Trump administration changing the equation in Venezuela. We have the Trump administration changing the equation in Iran. And most recently, even as we're recording, we have the Trump administration changing significantly. The equation is in Cuba. And these, of course, are all proxies of the ccp, in effect, tell me a little bit about how that's playing out.

[Gordon Chang]

Venezuela was important to China because it was its main friend in the Western Hemisphere. And of course, China had extended something like 63, 64 billion dollars in loans. That outstanding balance has now been reduced because Venezuela has been providing oil at heavily discounted rates. And those discounts have been applied to their outstanding loan balance. But that's no longer going to be the case because Venezuela may sell oil to China, but they're not going to be selling it at discounted rates. Thanks to one Donald John Trump. The same thing is going to be true for Iran. You know, after this war is over, Iran probably will continue to sell energy to China, but it's not going to be at the cheap rates and it's not going to be in the renminbi. It's going to be in hard currencies. So China, the world's largest importer of oil, has now had two main providers of oil at discounted rates now taken off the board. So, yeah, China's got, got a problem here. And, and this is very interesting if you step back and look at Xi Jinping's mentality, he gets somewhere between 45 to 50% of his seaborne imports of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz, and that is a significant portion for China. So it would make sense for him to buy oil and gas from Russia. But in the Xi Jinping Vladimir Putin summit afterwards, they didn't come to terms on the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline. It's gas, it's not oil, but nonetheless, it's energy. And China has, I think, a real need for energy of all types right now, especially energy that is not carried over critical waterway choke points which the US Navy can close off at will. So, you know, Xi Jinping is really arrogant right now, and that means China is, I think, headed for some really bad troubles. I mean, it is as it is, but Xi Jinping is making this much worse. And by the way, April 13, the Pentagon and Indonesia came to a memorandum of which looks like a closer cooperation with the United States. And that's significant in this conversation because it is the Indonesian island of Sumatra that is the southern part of the Strait of Malacca, which is even more important than the Strait of Hormuz. The Chinese must be hysterical right now, or they should be, but they don't seem to be taking care of a problem. So this shows the state of mind in China right now, which they just don't understand what trouble they are in.

[Jan Kellogg]

So speaking about straits, I recently had the Taiwanese representative to the United States, Ambassador Yui, on the show and we talked about the Taiwan Strait, which we often talk about the Taiwan Strait in the context of the CCP crossing the strait and trying to take Taiwan. What he pointed out, which I thought was very interesting and astute, was that a whole lot of Chinese trade and in an economy that's based on export, as you pointed out earlier, is actually coming through that strait. So some kind of a war type scenario in that area would have an incredibly disruptive effect, I mean, on China itself. And that I don't know how much that's figuring into their own calculation, but it feels like it should.

[Gordon Chang]

Well, it should because China now is just almost completely dependent on exports for economic growth. And you know, you hear a lot of people say, oh, you know, the Chinese don't need to invade, all they need to do is establish a blockade around Taiwan. Well, yeah, they can establish a blockade, but to do that they would be trading their economy in the balance because that has all sorts of knock on effects because the ones you just talked about, you know, China right now needs peace and stability in the world in general because it needs to export and yet it is disrupting the world by fueling the war in Iran, by fueling the war in Ukraine, by creating or at least intensifying the insurgencies in North Africa that look like wars. So yeah, China is doing exactly the opposite. What it needs to do, and this is absolutely fascinating because it shows that Chinese foreign policy right now is counterproductive.

[Jan Kellogg]

Well, and you mentioned Japan earlier. I mean, the U.S. you mentioned this kind of increased cooperation, or at least on the surface with Indonesia, but also absolutely with Japan. I mean, I think it's, you know, kind of the love fest with a Japan that's Actually, for the first time, really pushing to increase its military expenditures and its own ability to protect itself. That. That seems to be a significant shift.

[Gordon Chang]

A lot of people focus on the historical entity between Japan and China. And yes, it's there. But we should also remember that during the Maoist era and during the era of Deng Xiaoping, Beijing and Tokyo had very warm relations, and Tokyo was a supporter of the Communist Party. It's only when you get to Jiang Zemin, Wu Jintao and Xi Jinping that relations with Japan deteriorate. And this is fascinating to watch what's happened since early November when Prime Minister Takeichi, she was asked a question about what would Japan do if there were a war in Taiwan and China? And she said this would be a crisis, a security crisis for Tokyo as defined in their 2015 National Security Law. That's all she said. She didn't say that Japan would come to Taiwan's aid. She just would say this would give her enhanced powers under Japan's internal laws. So what did China do? It threw a fit. It actually had. Their Osaka consul general threatened to kill the Japanese prime minister. And although, you know, Chinese propaganda on this has continued since early November, it hasn't been resonating anywhere, except perhaps in Jongnan High. So what is China doing? It's continuing its assaults on Japan. And what has that done? Well, it is strengthened Takechi by standing firm. She has changed the Japanese political landscape. She came in as one of the weakest prime minister Japanese prime ministers ever. Her ldp, Liberal Democratic Party was ailing. So what does she do? Well, she calls an election in February and she wins an historic mandate. And the LDP is now stronger than it's ever been. So thanks to China for that. And the same thing happened in Taiwan. Sorry for going on here, but it shows you how bad Chinese foreign policy is. Remember Tsai Ing Wen President, Democratic Progressive Party 2019 there was talk that she was not going to win the nomination of her party to run for reelection as president. But you have the demonstrations in Hong Kong. People in Taiwan looked up and said, my gosh, we don't want that here. So Tsai, she wins the nomination of her party and she goes on to win the election in a landslide. So here's just examples of China driving countries in the region away from what China wants. And it shows you how deeply unproductive Chinese foreign policy has become. They're our best friends. Xi Jinping's our best friend in that sense. He's creating coalitions for the. For us. He's driving all these countries into the arms of Washington. I mean, we couldn't devise a better foreign policy if we tried.

[Jan Kellogg]

Well, so as we're speaking here, you know, I can't help but think, think when I look at President Trump's and the administration's policy. I mean, aside from their national security strategy, which it seems to me they're enacting pretty deliberately, not just in the Western Hemisphere, but also in the Pacific, that there's just kind of a lot of different moves and a lot of questions about what Trump will ultimately do, which strikes me as kind of his M.O. and I'm curious if you're your thoughts on this.

[Gordon Chang]

Yeah, let's talk about it when it happens. I don't know where this is going. We do know that his national security strategy, which was released in December, he's actually implementing it, which is really interesting because a lot of these documents, they just put them out there. They have everything in the world in them, and everyone forgets about them. Well, not Trump. Trump is actually, he sees, going forward with it, he made the Western Hemisphere his number one priority, and he's been acting on that. So we see, for instance, the United States ejecting China from the Panama Canal Zone. We all know what happened on January 3rd in Venezuela. Cuba is now at a point where it is can't keep the lights on, literally. And we have the US Indicting Raul Castro for the deaths of those four who were on the flights. So this is Trump being very transparent. We talk about his unpredictability, and, yeah, he's unpredictable. But he's told us what he's going to do in that national security strategy, and by God, he's actually implementing it.

[Jan Kellogg]

Well, but on the Taiwan side, and frankly, on these relationships with the other island nations in the region and the Pacific in general, I mean, it seems to me, if I recall correctly, that the language in that national security strategy is pretty clear on them being an important part of the US Strategic posture in the region.

[Gordon Chang]

Yeah, the national security strategy is interesting because although it doesn't mention China by name, in a lot of places, it refers to a situation that can only involve China. So South China Sea, it talks about a hostile power either imposing tolls over the waterway or excluding the planes and ships of other countries. Well, it doesn't mention China by name. It should, but it didn't. But China is the only power that could impose those tolls or could try to exclude others. It's the only one with those ambitions. It's the only one with this 10 dash line business. So yes, the Trump administration's been clear about it. Now I would have liked the National Security Strategy to say China and South China Sea in the same sentence, but. And if you read it, you can see what's going on there. And there are a lot of people who commented on that document without reading it. And there's no excuse, cuz it's only 28, 29 pages, John. So everybody can read every single word. And so it's clear what Trump was getting at in, when, when he issued that document.

[Jan Kellogg]

You know, one of the things that was a big subject of discussion around these meetings that happened recently, you know, Trump, Xi and the administrations, it was this issue of AI and sort of collaboration around AI, safety negotiation and

[Gordon Chang]

the

[Jan Kellogg]

talk of that somehow died out after the actual events. What do you think?

[Gordon Chang]

Yeah, thank God for that. I mean, at the end of April, we had Bernie Sanders with that event on Capitol Hill where he had Chinese and American scientists talk about the need for cooperation on AI, established guidelines, because AI can be incredibly dangerous. And at least on defining the problem, Sanders was absolutely 100% right. AI is dangerous. China's got AI, it's got humanoid robots, and I have seen the Terminator movies and a lot of other people have as well. And yes, it's science fiction, but you can see how that could become reality. So yeah, I agree with Sanders. This is incredibly dangerous stuff. But just because it's incredibly dangerous doesn't mean cooperation with China is the way to go. People are forgetting that. November 2023, Xi Jinping came to see President Biden in Woodside, California and Biden raised the issue of AI as one area where the United States and China could cooperate. The United States then starts a discussion with China about the role of AI in the launch of nuclear weapons. And so this should be the easiest place for the two countries to cooperate because everybody should agree that no, AI should not be given the have the ability to end humanity, which is what we're talking about. But China blew us off. And that was clear in, I think, March of the following year. In those discussions in Geneva between American and Chinese officials, the Chinese said, no, we're not going to talk to you about this. So it's clear that discussions with China are not going to be fruitful. We cannot fall into China's trap of trying to endless discussions of giving up our lead on AI. Yes, we do need guidelines and they're critical. But the way to get there is for the US to win the AI race, to have other countries adopt our standards. And to have Americans develop those guidelines that other countries adopt in terms of AI usage. That's our only hope. Yes, it would be nice if we could all sit down with other countries and come up with some sort of rules, but this is not like counting warheads. This is, you know, if there were an AI agreement, you can't police it. You can't. So you can't promise enforcement. And you certainly cannot get the other country and monitor and verify that. So this is inherently a very difficult subject and we need to recognize that. And we need to recognize the limitations of what we can do in these circumstances, because what is, some people say is necessary. And thank God Bernie Sanders raised the issue, but what is necessary is not possible in these cases. And by the way, Bernie Sanders talks about nuclear weapons armed control as a template for AI agreements. Well, he should have thought about this because China won't talk to us about nuclear weapons. So this is not a good example for Sanders to raise. Yes, Sanders identifies the problem, but he comes up with completely with situ, with solutions that are completely disadvantageous, unworkable, and can lead to global disaster.

[Jan Kellogg]

Well, you know, one of the challenges with his approach is the assumption of good faith from the Chinese Communist Party's side. And it's something I've written extensively about as well. And that it's just simply, you know, historical precedence shows us that's not a reasonable position. But also the kind of approach of the regime itself tells us that that's not a tenable position. We can't assume good faith.

[Gordon Chang]

The Communist Party in China is core evil, as someone said on television a couple days ago. And even if it weren't, there is no possibility for long term cooperation between the United States and China on this. In May 2019, People's Daily, which is the most authoritative publication in China, in a landmark editorial declared a quote, people's war on us. And yes, we're Americans and we think we can ignore what our enemies say, but people's war is a term that resonates in Communist Party thought. And if we, if there was any doubt on the part of Americans. In March of 2023, PLA Daily, the main propaganda organ of the Chinese military, defined people's war as total war. And we know they have a doctrine of unrestricted warfare, the Communist Party, and we've got to recognize this, that the Communist Party views the United States as an existential threat. It views us as an existential threat not because of anything that we say or do, but because of who we are. So you have an insecure regime in Beijing is worried about the inspirational impact of America's values and form of governance on the Chinese people. So that means we will never, never have amicable relations with China as long as the Communist Party rules it. We America, we're Americans. And so we think, you know, it doesn't really matter what others think, but have to go back to February 1993. Osama bin Laden killed six Americans with the bombing of the North Tower of the World Trade Center. And we just ignored it. We ignored it until one day, Osama bin Laden killed 2,977Americans. And then we said, how did that happen? Well, you can go back to Tocqueville or you can go to Mackinder. And they will all say the same thing, that democracies in general, and especially America's democracy tries to ignore threats until it's too late. And that's us. Now, China is far more powerful than Osama bin Laden ever was. So we gotta recognize that although we're a far more powerful society than China, we can lose our country because we're not defending it with the vigor and determination that's necessary.

[Jan Kellogg]

So let me ask you briefly about your thoughts on this superpower status, because you mentioned that China under the Communist Party is not a superpower. The US Is probably the only superpower. But there's some indicators. I mean, it is the second largest economy. There's this nuclear arsenal which is probably a lot larger than what is officially disclosed. There is this kind of insinuation into hundreds of countries around the world, control of the telecommunications infrastructure, at the very least, these debt trap diplomacy arrangements. I mean, China has really extended itself all over the world. So when you say it's not a superpower, can you kind of clarify what you mean here?

[Gordon Chang]

There's no question China has a lot of reach. But China was able to put this together in a very different era when it was reforming its economy and society, when it was showing a kind face to the world. Now things are different and China's position is rapidly declining. So you could say, well, was it a superpower 10 years ago? Yeah, probably was in a sense, but not now. It is a rapidly failing society now. People's perceptions haven't caught up with reality. But I think that one thing that's occurring, and we're seeing this now, especially among economists and economic analysts, they're seeing the Chinese economy start to rapidly deteriorate. I think that's going to have a change in people's perceptions. Then they're going to start looking at what else is occurring in the world with regard to China? And I think they're going to come to the conclusion that China is not a strong state except for the will of one person, Xi Jinping, who seems to be able to push around President Trump and others. But at some point, I think that even President Trump is going to have enough of it, because I think he's going to get tired of Xi Jinping trying to humiliate him and the United States in general. And I'm damn sure the American people are going to be tired about that, and they're going to push Trump in different directions, whether Trump wants to go there or not. Because, after all, we do have elections in this country. And by the way, one of them is coming up pretty soon. So I do think that we are going to see a change. Trump is shrewd. He can see the weakness in the Chinese system, and he is going to exploit it. And that is, I think, going to be where we will be in the future. I know too many people use it, but I will as well. We're Americans, and as Winston Churchill said, we end up doing the right thing after we exhaust everything else. And that's where we are right now. We are desperately trying to achieve some sort of accommodation with China when it's no longer possible. This system is core evil and it's malicious and it's identified us as an enemy. So eventually, we will get to the place where we will start defending ourselves. And when we do, and we're a far stronger society, it's going to become evident that there is only a G1, there is only one superpower, and it ain't China.

[Jan Kellogg]

Well, Gordon Chang, it's such a pleasure to have had you on.

[Gordon Chang]

Well, thank you, Yan. I really appreciate it.

[Jan Kellogg]

Thank you all for joining Gordon Chang and me on this episode of American Thought Leaders. I'm your host, Jan Kellick. Sam.