American Thought Leaders: The Arctic Chessboard—Why Greenland and Canada Are Critical to US Security Against the CCP

Date: February 14, 2026
Host: Jan Jekielek (B)
Guest: Alex Gray (A), Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council; Former National Security Council Chief of Staff

Episode Overview

This episode delves into the strategic significance of Greenland and Canada in the context of US national security, particularly as it relates to countering the influence of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in the Arctic and North America. Jan Jekielek and Alex Gray explore the historic and evolving geopolitical importance of Greenland, recent developments in Chinese military and economic strategy in the Arctic, the risks associated with an independent Greenland, and the growing vulnerabilities in US-Canada security cooperation amid increasing Sino-Canadian ties.

Key Discussion Points

Historical & Strategic Importance of Greenland

• Continuity of Interest by US Presidents ([00:00], [04:27])

  • The US interest in Greenland is not new or limited to the Trump era. Strategic logic traces back to President Andrew Johnson (1867) and includes attempts by Presidents Wilson, Roosevelt, Truman, and Eisenhower.
  • Quote: “The strategic logic of why Greenland matters to us has not changed because geography doesn’t change.” — Alex Gray ([04:27])

• Arctic Sea Lanes and Security ([00:00], [04:27])

  • Control of the Greenland-Iceland-UK gap is vital for monitoring and controlling sea lanes historically used by Soviet submarines and, increasingly, Chinese submarines as the Arctic ice recedes.

• Chinese Interest and Activities in the Arctic ([00:00], [04:27])

  • Recent Wall Street Journal reports: China is moving submarines to the North Pole and seeking to purchase dual-use facilities such as airfields in Greenland.
  • Denmark’s sovereignty currently enables US influence and security presence, but this could change if Greenland achieves independence.

Lessons from the Solomon Islands Scenario

• Chinese Strategy: United Front Tactics and Infrastructure Acquisition ([09:32])

  • China flips governments (as in the Solomons) to isolate Taiwan, then pours in Belt and Road projects and police/military forces, creating de facto control.

• Warning for Greenland’s Future ([07:46], [09:32])

  • If Greenland follows its trajectory toward independence without a proactive US security framework, China could insert its own “People’s Armed Police or Chinese militia” and gain a foothold much closer to North America.
  • Quote: “We will wake up, and we will have, just like in the Solomons, people’s armed police or Chinese militia running rampant in Greenland. And that is a lot bigger threat to us than anything that’s happening in the Pacific Islands.” — Alex Gray ([00:54])

The Path Toward Greenlandic Independence

• Colonial History and Autonomy Movement ([14:10])

  • Greenland’s movement toward self-rule is compared to indigenous US experiences; Denmark’s history is seen as harsh and colonial.
  • Greenland has developed mechanisms for potential independence—including referendums and increased local governance.

• Expected Developments ([14:10], [18:20])

  • Greenland aims for full independence by the 2030s (explicitly stated in its national security strategy).
  • Critical for the US to prepare a security arrangement now—before Chinese influence fills the vacuum that may emerge post-independence.

• US Model Compacts: The Freely Associated States ([18:52])

  • Example relationships: Marshall Islands, Palau, Micronesia—independent but with defense arrangements granting the US veto and base rights in exchange for aid and support.
  • Quote: “That’s the type of influence we need to have to guarantee our security in Greenland. That’s the type of relationship that has to be set up to wait on the other end...” — Alex Gray ([18:52])

Risks of “Dropping the Ball” in Strategic Partnerships

• Democratic Inertia ([21:23])

  • Democracies often delay tough security decisions until crisis hits, as seen with Australia’s lack of foresight in the Solomons.
  • Quote: “Democracies have a horrible track record of doing hard things when they’re relatively easy.” — Alex Gray ([21:23])

• Binary Choice Facing Greenland ([21:54])

  • When independence comes, Greenland must choose between security pacts with the US or alignment with China.
  • Quote: “They’re going to have a great power waiting for them on the other side of independence. Do you want it to be Washington or do you want it to be Beijing?” — Alex Gray ([21:54])

China’s Rapid Strategic Execution vs. US Bureaucracy

• Chinese Advantage in Decision-Making ([23:36])

  • China’s authoritarian system can swiftly commit resources to strategic objectives, exploiting any delay by democratic rivals.
  • Example: China’s global strategic footprint (Africa, Antarctica, Cuba, etc.).

• Need for US Preemption and Planning ([23:36])

  • The US must act before crisis strikes, not after.

Canadian Security Vulnerabilities

• Canadian Defense Shortfalls ([26:08])

  • Canada spends below 1% of GDP on defense, underfunds Arctic security, and maintains outdated Cold War strategies.
  • Large portions of the Arctic coastline and wilderness are unguarded or monitored by minimally equipped local militias.
  • Quote: “Canada is increasingly becoming a major strategic weak spot for the United States… The lack of preparedness that the Trudeau government engaged in for a decade has truly harmed US core security interests.” — Alex Gray ([26:08])

• The “Free Rider” Problem and US Obligations ([30:46])

  • The US cannot ignore Canada’s vulnerabilities, even if it disapproves of Canadian politics or China policy, due to security realities.
  • Quote: “It’s the ultimate free rider problem, right? Because we can’t say that this massive landmass bordering us… we’ll just leave them to their own devices and let them become a Chinese vassal state.” — Alex Gray ([30:46])

• Middle Power Ambitions and Chinese Influence ([29:11])

  • Canadian elites’ vision of “middle power” non-alignment is, in practice, an invitation to Chinese political and economic entanglement, risking loss of sovereignty.
  • Quote: “The Chinese conception of interstate relations is enemy and vassal state. There is no middle ground.” — Alex Gray ([29:16])

US Tolerance vs Assertiveness in Security Partnerships

• Balancing Diplomacy and Security ([33:30], [37:08])

  • The US must tolerate some political disagreements but must draw red lines around defense and anti-CCP alignment.
  • Quote: “We’re going to have to tolerate a certain level of… misaligned Canadian politics while at the same time being very direct with them...” — Alex Gray ([37:13])

• Arctic as a New Geopolitical Front ([36:00])

  • Melting Arctic ice will increase shipping, resource extraction, and the presence of Russian and Chinese naval forces—raising the stakes for continental security.
  • Maintaining US-Canadian cooperation is critical.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Greenland’s 150+ Years of US Strategic Interest:
  “The strategic logic of why Greenland matters to us has not changed because geography doesn’t change.” — Alex Gray ([04:27])

• On the Solomon Islands as a Warning:
  “We will wake up and we will have, just like in the Solomons, we will have people's armed police or Chinese militia running rampant in Greenland.” — Alex Gray ([00:54])

• On Democracies and Crisis Response:
  “Democracies have a horrible track record of doing hard things when they’re relatively easy.” — Alex Gray ([21:23])

• On Canada as a Security Risk:
  “Canada is increasingly becoming a major strategic weak spot for the United States… The lack of preparedness… has truly harmed US core security interests.” — Alex Gray ([26:08])

• On Free Rider Problem with Canada:
  “It’s the ultimate free rider problem, right? …because we can’t say…we’ll just leave them to their own devices and let them become a Chinese vassal state. That’s not feasible.” — Alex Gray ([30:46])

• On Power in Global Affairs:
  “Power is the ultimate arbiter of the international system… The system has always been geared towards relative power in the international system.” — Alex Gray ([33:30])

Important Timestamps

• 00:00–04:27 — Historical US interest in Greenland and importance of Arctic sea lanes
• 07:46–09:32 — Risks of Chinese influence after Greenlandic independence; Solomon Islands scenario
• 14:10–18:20 — Greenland’s colonial history, path to independence, and potential legal mechanisms
• 18:52 — US “Compacts of Free Association” model as the strategic answer for Greenland
• 21:23–23:36 — Democratic inertia in strategic planning and the binary choice facing Greenland
• 23:36 — China’s rapid strategic moves compared to US governance
• 26:08–30:46 — Canada’s defense gaps, “middle power” syndrome, and implications for US security
• 33:30–37:13 — US tolerance of Canadian politics vs. red lines on security; the coming importance of the Arctic
• 38:42–40:12 — Final synthesis: securing the homeland and hemisphere as prerequisites for global US power

Final Synthesis

Alex Gray emphasizes that US security requires a layered approach: defending the homeland, securing the hemisphere (including the Arctic and both American continents), and only then projecting power to the Indo-Pacific to counter the CCP. This requires vigilance regarding Greenland’s independence aspirations, proactive security compacts for newly sovereign territories, consistent pressure on Canada to maintain defense commitments, and learning from past failures where the US or its allies hesitated to act until too late.

“If we don’t have a secure homeland and a secure hemisphere, we cannot successfully project power to the Indo Pacific to deter and… succeed in a conflict with the CCP.” — Alex Gray ([38:42])

This summary is faithful to the tone and detail of the episode, providing an accessible deep-dive into the strategic stakes and policy considerations discussed by Jan Jekielek and Alex Gray.