The World Cup hasn’t traditionally been a favorite event for U.S. sports bettors. But as North America prepares to host, the gambling landscape is a lot different. Since 2018, sports betting has been legal, and 10% of Americans partake. Punters may wage $1.5 billion on the tournament this summer.

Then there’s been the inescapable emergence of prediction markets: on the face of it, simply another form of gambling, but treated by the federal government as futures trading with little regulation. It’s a ripe moment for both controversial industries to try and drive more soccer fans to their phones.

Of course, FIFA has gotten in on the act, with its own very strange and politically entangled prediction market model, reported here by Front Office Sports.

Talib speaks with Dustin Gouker, betting consultant and author of the Substack newsletters Event Horizon and The Closing Line, to unpack the laissez-faire state of gambling in 2026, and how it might meet the beautiful game.

00:00 Intro

00:40 US Gambling Explosion Since 2018

04:20 How Sports Betting Got Legal

07:54 The Rise of Prediction Markets

10:04 How Big Are They Now

12:21 Risks Addiction And Manipulation

15:01 Betting On War And Death

16:20 Political Ties

17:29 Why World Cup Betting Could Surge

20:21 FIFA Prediction Platform Mystery

24:51 Legal Fights and Political Winds

29:19 Prediction Markets vs Polls

Get full access to America's Cup at talibvisram.substack.com/subscribe