Election Day is here. Everything you need to know.

Summary

Apple News Today: "Election Day is Here. Everything You Need to Know." – Detailed Summary

Release Date: November 5, 2024
Host: Sumita Basu

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1. Introduction to Election Day

On the November 5th episode of Apple News Today, host Sumita Basu welcomes listeners to Election Day, providing a comprehensive guide to understanding the day's events and what to expect as results begin to unfold. Basu emphasizes the importance of knowing when and how election outcomes are determined, setting the stage for an in-depth exploration of the electoral process.

2. How Election Results Are Called

The Role of Media Organizations and the Associated Press

Basu introduces the central question: "When will we know who won this election?" She explains that unlike many other democracies, the United States does not have a single federal agency to declare the national winner. Instead, media organizations, including Apple News, rely primarily on the Associated Press (AP) to make election calls.

Sumita Basu [00:05]:
"Now, depending on how old you are, you might be used to the idea of waking up on Wednesday morning to election results."

Insights from David Scott of the Associated Press

To shed light on the AP’s methodology, Basu interviews David Scott, the editor in charge of the decision desk at the AP.

David Scott [01:15]:
"There's no national, single commission or agency that adds up all those votes and says who's won nationwide."

Scott elaborates on the complexity of the U.S. election system, highlighting the variety of methods states use to report results, from sophisticated data feeds to simple photographs of vote counts.

David Scott [02:10]:
"When we are declaring a winner in a race, we're trying to answer one question, can the trailing candidates catch the leader?"

3. The AP’s Election Operation

Historical Expertise and Modern Techniques

The AP has been meticulously monitoring election reporting since 1849, developing robust systems to ensure accurate and timely calls. This year, the AP is prepared to call approximately 6,800 races, utilizing data from counties and states along with a dedicated team of around 4,000 individuals who manually report results.

Sumita Basu [02:46]:
"It's a massive undertaking, one the AP calls the single largest act of journalism that exists."

4. Collaboration with Other Media Organizations

Basu explains that many prominent media outlets, including the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, NPR, and Apple News, depend on the AP for election calls. Additionally, some organizations use services like Edison Research or operate their own decision desks. A notable example from 2020 is Fox News' early call of Arizona for Joe Biden, which was later corroborated by the AP.

Sumita Basu [04:15]:
"The AP has an incredible track record of accuracy, more than 99.9%."

5. AP’s Commitment to Accuracy

Scott emphasizes the AP’s priority: being correct above all else. This meticulous approach was evident in the 2000 presidential race between Al Gore and George W. Bush, where the AP refrained from making premature calls, allowing the situation to be resolved by the Supreme Court.

David Scott [04:11]:
"We're thinking about being right first more than anything else."

6. Factors Influencing Election Result Timing in 2024

Several factors could affect the speed of result declarations:

• Pandemic-Related Voting Changes: The surge in mail-in ballots during the pandemic in 2020 extended the counting period.

• Close Races in Battleground States: Tight margins in key states may require more time to verify results.

Scott notes that these factors could lead to prolonged result nights, urging patience and trust in the electoral process.

David Scott [04:39]:
"It's not a sign of fraud. It is simply that we have a remarkably close election."

7. The Certification Process Post-Race

Understanding Certification with Jessica Huseman

Transitioning from result declaration to official certification, Basu introduces Jessica Huseman, editorial director of Votebeat.org. Huseman explains that election results become official only after states certify their counts by a deadline known as Safe Harbor Day in early December.

Jessica Huseman [06:20]:
"Certification is required by law, and certification delays a number of things."

Potential Legal Challenges

The certification process can be disrupted by lawsuits, as seen in the 2020 election when former President Trump and his allies filed numerous lawsuits in battleground states. However, this time, secretaries of state are better prepared to handle such challenges, with pre-written lawsuits ready to file if certification is refused.

8. Anticipated Legal Battles in 2024

Expert Insights from Paula Reed

CNN’s chief legal affairs correspondent Paula Reed predicts that the 2024 election will be the most litigated presidential election in history. She attributes this to lessons learned from the 2020 elections, where aggressive legal strategies led to the loss of 61 out of 62 cases for Republicans, some facing sanctions and criminal charges.

Paula Reed [08:25]:
"2024 is going to be the most litigated presidential election in history."

Republican Strategies and Challenges

Reed discusses how Republicans are actively challenging and attempting to change state election laws under the banner of "election integrity." However, many of these challenges are deemed baseless, perpetuating false claims of fraud without evidence.

Paula Reed [09:22]:
"You have the former president getting out and making some false claims... that there isn't actually evidence of that."

9. Impact on Voter Trust and Party Dynamics

Concerns Over Voter Distrust

Experts express worry that ongoing lawsuits and unfounded fraud claims will erode voter trust, particularly if high-profile figures like Donald Trump continue to assert fraudulent activities without evidence. This climate of distrust poses a long-term challenge for the Republican Party.

Jessica Huseman [10:13]:
"Republicans are going to have to cool it... It’s going to take a really long time for the Republican Party to undo that damage."

Future of Election Integrity Messaging

Huseman speculates on the Republican Party's future messaging regarding election integrity, especially if Trump loses the election. She highlights the need for the party to adopt more realistic and less divisive approaches to regain voter trust.

10. Additional Election Stories Featured in Apple News

Basu highlights several other noteworthy election-related stories available in the Apple News app:

• Dress Code at Polling Places:
  USA Today reminds voters that wearing campaign apparel to polls can be considered electioneering in some states, advising listeners to leave branded clothing at home.

• Clallam County’s Predictive Success:
  A unique county in Washington has accurately predicted presidential winners since 1980, demonstrating that partisan labels may not always dictate electoral outcomes.

• Education on Elections:
  Despite the historic nature of the 2024 election cycle, some history teachers are hesitant to discuss it in schools due to restrictive state policies. However, others emphasize teaching respectful disagreement, critical thinking, and media literacy.

11. Conclusion and Upcoming Content

Basu concludes by encouraging listeners to explore these stories within the Apple News app and previews the next segment: a deeper conversation with Jessica Huseman about the certification process of elections. She assures listeners that regardless of when the race is called, they can expect continuous coverage and analysis.

Sumita Basu [11:17]:
"Whether it takes hours or days, our Democratic systems are normal and healthy."

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This comprehensive summary encapsulates the key discussions, insights, and expert opinions presented in the Apple News Today episode on Election Day. By detailing the mechanics of election result calling, the certification process, anticipated legal challenges, and broader election narratives, listeners gain a thorough understanding of what to expect on this pivotal day.

Transcript

[Sumita Basu]

Good morning. It's Tuesday, November 5th, election day. I'm Sumita Basu. This is Apple News Today. On today's show, an election guide with everything you need to know as you watch results roll. Let's start with the question that every American wants to know. When will we know who won this election? Now, depending on how old you are, you might be used to the idea of waking up on Wednesday morning to election results. That was the case in 2008 and 2012 when Barack Obama won and in 2016 when Donald Trump won. But in 2020, it took until the Saturday after Election Day for it to get called for Joe Biden. And in all of those cases, it's not like some formal federal agency made that declaration. It was media organizations. A lot of them, including Apple News, rely on specifically the Associated Press to make the calls. So we called up David Scott. He's the editor in charge of the decision desk at the Associated Press. And we asked him, what do you at the AP watch on election night?

[David Scott]

There's no national, single commission or agency that adds up all those votes and says who's won nationwide, unlike in many other Western style democracies. So you can have something as complicated or sophisticated as a state sending out their vote totals from the elections taking place in their state via a programmatic feed and something as simple as a picture of vote results written on a whiteboard posted to a Facebook page.

[Sumita Basu]

The AP has closely monitored our patchwork system of election reporting for almost 200 years, since the election of President Zachary Taylor. And it's developed its own system to determine when a race, from the presidential to congressional seats down to local races, can be called with 100% confidence. We asked Scott how exactly they make that call.

[David Scott]

When we are declaring a winner in a race, we're trying to answer one question, can the trailing candidates catch the leader? And so to do that, we are looking at every available piece of information about a race. And of course, at the heart of it is the vote count, what the voters have decided and what local election officials are reporting. But we can supplement that with our survey of the electorate. AP VoteCast. We can look at advanced vote statistics. We can look at registration data that allows us to look at how a race is developing and assess whether those trailing candidates have a path to victory.

[Sumita Basu]

This year, the AP is prepared to call around 6,800 races. They're pulling in data from counties and states, but they've also got something like 4,000 people stationed all over the country who phone in results manually. It's A massive undertaking, one the AP calls the single largest act of journalism that exists. Now, like I mentioned, a lot of media organizations rely on the ap, including the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, npr, and us here at Apple News. Some media organizations also rely on another service known as Edison Research to call races. And other news organizations have their own decision desks that pull data from a bunch of services like fox news. In 2020, you might remember they were the first to call Arizona for Joe Biden. The AP followed shortly after, and it took other media outlets days to make the same call. Fox got a lot of blowback from Trump for that call, but it turned out they and the AP were right, which is the next important thing to know. The AP has an incredible track record of accuracy, more than 99.9%. It's so careful about making calls that in 2000, in the contested race between Al Gore and George W. Bush, the AP never made a call, even as TV networks declared a winner and flailed around before the election ultimately went to the Supreme Court to decide.

[David Scott]

So we're thinking about being right first more than anything else.

[Sumita Basu]

As for why it took so long to call the 2020 election about four days, it came down to two factors. One, the pandemic changed how we vote, and the surge of mail in ballots that year took longer to count. And the race was extraordinarily close in a handful of states, coming down to just thousands of votes in some. Scott said this year it could take longer than usual again, and that's okay.

[David Scott]

Like, it's not a sign of fraud. It's not a sign of malfeasance, not a sign of anything going wrong. It is simply that we have a remarkably close election.

[Sumita Basu]

Most election observers believe this race will come down to seven battleground states. Georgia's polls close first at 7pm Eastern, then North Carolina at 7:30pm If Kamala Harris does well in those states, that might be a sign that winning all the blue wall states will not be necessary. That's Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. But if Trump does well in North Carolina and Georgia, then the blue wall will matter more. And those votes, because of the way they're tallied in those states, will take longer to count. So Scott says, try to be patient and just know that whether it takes hours or days, our Democratic systems are normal and healthy.

[David Scott]

Let our wonderful election officials nationwide do their work of counting ballots. And it's really an amazing thing that they do. If we think about 160 million votes, the vast majority of them, almost all of them, cast on paper, marked with a pen. And within a couple of days, we know who will be in the next Congress and who will be in the White House. It's really a remarkable thing that we do as a country country and that they do as election officials.

[Sumita Basu]

Let's turn now to what happens after the race has been called. Because it's one thing for news organizations to declare a winner, it's another thing to officially certify the results.

[Jessica Huseman]

We are used to as voters, seeing the election called on election night on our favorite network and just assuming that the election is over, but those are not official results, and the results don't become official for a really long time.

[Sumita Basu]

That's Jessica Husman. She's the editorial director of Votebeat.org, a nonprofit and nonpartisan news outlet. I recently spoke with her for an episode of Apple News in conversation, and she explained the official deadline for states to submit their certified counts is called Safe Harbor Day in early December. And the biggest thing that could disrupt the certification process is lawsuits. We saw this back in 2020 when former President Trump and his allies filed dozens of lawsuits in battleground states, 62 to be exact. By the time Safe Harbor Day rolled around that December, only one state, Wisconsin, had not certified. But President Joe Biden was already leading by a comfortable margin. This time around, secretaries of state have had time to prepare for these kinds of legal challenges.

[Jessica Huseman]

Certification is required by law, and certification delays a number of things, right? Like if certification is delayed, local candidates can't take office. And so local candidates and local voters then have legal grounds to file a lawsuit against these people as well. And so I think that secretaries of state in Arizona, in Georgia, in Michigan are way more prepared for this fight than they were in 2020. And so I've talked to secretaries of state who are like, yeah, no, we're not worried about this at all. We have already found a voter in every single county who is willing to be a plaintiff in the lawsuit, and that lawsuit is written. And so as soon as they refuse to certify, we're filing it.

[Sumita Basu]

Still, everyone is braced for some kind of heated legal battle to play out. CNN's chief legal affairs correspondent Paula Reed said both campaigns have set up teams of lawyers in battleground states that could be heavily contested.

[Paula Reed]

2024 is going to be the most litigated presidential election in history.

[Sumita Basu]

Courts have already been flooded with lawsuits, primarily from Republican aligned groups. And these suits came much earlier in the election cycle.

[Paula Reed]

Sources tell me that Republicans learned in 2020 that they need to get out ahead of these questions, try to get these things litigated and resolved before Election Day, which is part of why we're seeing this wave of litig Trump team. They knew that after 2020, their number one priority needed to be finding top legal talent, because what happened in 2020 is not only did they lose 61 out of 62 cases, but some of their lawyers were sanctioned. Some of them were even criminally charged.

[Sumita Basu]

The Republican strategy has been to challenge and change various state election laws like voter qualifications, as part of what they call an election integrity operation. But Reid says a lot of those challenges are baseless.

[Paula Reed]

You have the former president getting out and making some false claims. For example, in Pennsylvania, he alleged that there was already fraud occurring in the state when there isn't actually evidence of that, that we do know they're investigating fraud. But filing those kinds of arguments in the court of public opinion helps to sow doubt and confusion about whatever happens. For example, in Pennsylvania, the Democratic strategy.

[Sumita Basu]

Has been to double down on lawyers who have specialized knowledge in election law and procedures in each jurisdiction. Now, experts say they aren't worried that any of these lawsuits will actually change the outcome of the election, but they do worry that they will sow more distrust among voters, especially if Trump keeps claiming, without evidence that there is fraud. Husman says the only way back from this is for Trump and his allies to change their message.

[Jessica Huseman]

Republicans are going to have to cool it, right? Like, they're going to have to start talking about the system in realistic terms. And I think that there is a faction of the Republican Party that is getting there. And I say that because you can only say the system is so flawed that the results don't matter. So many times before people are like, okay, well, I'm just not going to vote, then what's the point? And so they're disenfranchising themselves when they do this stuff. And I think it's going to take a really long time for the Republican Party to undo that damage. And I will be interested to see see how different the message is on voting if Donald Trump loses this election. Like, what does election integrity look like in a post Trump era for the Republican Party? And I don't know. Right? I really don't know.

[Sumita Basu]

Before we let you go, a few other election stories being featured in the Apple News app. It's easy to forget this because you might be pumped about heading to the polls while wearing your pro whoever T shirt or hat, but USA Today has a good list of reminders about what you can and can't wear to the polls. In some states, wearing campaign apparel to the polls counts as electioneering or an attempt to convince other people to vote a certain way. So you're better off leaving anything with a candidate's name or slogan at home. Next There is one county in Washington state that has correctly predicted who wins the White House in every election since 1980. Voters in Washington state don't register by party, so it's hard to know the political makeup of Clallam County. Voters there who spoke to the LA Times have strong opinions about whether they're supporting Harris or Trump. But Clallam's history of breaking six times for Republicans and five for Democrats demonstrates that partisan labels aren't everything. And lastly, an education story. We are living through a truly historic election cycle, and yet history teachers in schools are for the most part, reluctant to talk about it. In the past, many teachers have used election years as an opportunity to explain the American political process to their students. But the Wall Street Journal reports on how some educators have opted out this year, skipping mock elections and debate watch parties. With close to 20 states having put policies in place related to how schools can teach certain topics, some teachers told the Journal they're unsure how to proceed, but others say they're finding it important to teach their students how to disagree respectfully, to listen and repeat someone else's views before sharing their own, and to think critically about the news they're seeing online. You can find all these stories and more in the app News App. And if you're listening in the News app right now, stick around for the rest of my conversation with Jessica Huseman about how elections get certified. That episode of Apple News in Conversation is coming up next, and whether we have a called race or not, I will be back with the news tomorrow.