How the war in the Middle East could spiral into an energy crisis

Summary

Podcast Summary: "How the war in the Middle East could spiral into an energy crisis"

Apple News Today | March 4, 2026
Hosted by Shumita Basu with Cecilia Ley & Gideon Resnick

---

Overview

This episode examines the explosive escalation of a new Middle East war—sparked by hostilities in Iran—spreading across the Gulf, and the mounting fears of a resulting global energy crisis. The hosts break down major military developments, diplomatic rifts, and focus especially on the strategic vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz. The Washington Post’s Evan Halper and current political leaders share perspectives on how global oil supplies and inflation could be affected if the conflict deepens.

---

Key Topics & Discussion Points

1. War Escalation in the Middle East

• Major incidents:
  • U.S. submarine sinks Iranian warship in international waters—the first such naval sinking by torpedo since WWII.

    “An American submarine sunk an Iranian warship that thought it was safe in international waters. Instead, it was sunk by a torpedo. Quiet death, the first sinking of an enemy ship by a torpedo since World War II.”
    — US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth [00:49]

  • Turkey shoots down Iranian ballistic missile—target unclear.
  • Massive strikes: Israel and the U.S. have hit nearly 2,000 Iranian targets; Iran’s military remains battered.
• Human cost:
  • Nearly 800 Iranians reported dead, including a tragic hit on a girls’ school; scenes of mass funerals aired on state TV.
• Tit-for-tat retaliation:
  • Iran strikes U.S. base in Qatar (no casualties), hundreds of Iranian missiles/drones dispatched, hits on U.S. consulate in Dubai and US Embassy in Saudi Arabia.
  • Regional evacuations: Over 9,000 Americans evacuated, embassies shut indefinitely.

2. U.S. Policy and Political Ramifications

• Trump’s stance:
  • President Trump claims the Iranian military has been fully neutralized:

    “They have no navy, it’s been knocked out. They have no air force... just about everything’s been knocked out.”
    — Donald Trump [02:18]

  • Suggests strike was America’s independent decision, not merely support for Israel.

    “The president of the United States made a decision. This is intolerable. Iran cannot have these missiles... the weakest they’ve ever been. Hit them now.”
    — Trump [03:46]

  • White House sees no room for de-escalation or negotiation; no backchannel contact with Iran.
• Congressional concern:
  • Democrats raise alarms over “open-ended” war.

    “They told us in there that this is an open-ended operation that hasn’t even really started in earnest yet. There will be more Americans killed... This is war.”
    — Senator Chris Murphy [04:10]

• Impact on the President’s anti-inflation agenda:
  • Trump acknowledges likely oil price spikes, but believes they will fall “lower than even before” once fighting ends.
    — [05:02]

3. The Strait of Hormuz: Flashpoint for an Energy Crisis

• Strategic importance:
  • Evan Halper (Washington Post):

    “The Strait of Hormuz is a choke point. It’s about 30 miles wide and about a fifth of the world’s oil supply goes through it... Iran has control over it at the moment.” [05:34]

  • Iran threatens to target oil tankers; shipping through the strait all but halted, disrupting oil and natural gas flow worldwide.
• Economic consequences:
  • Prolonged closure would “send energy prices through the roof for consumers.” [05:54]
  • U.S. Navy may begin escorting ships, but military control is not easily achieved:

    “Any terrorist, any military brigade with a rocket launcher can just target that at a tanker. So I guess the question is, how long will it take the US to secure this? It sounds easier than it actually is.” — Evan Halper [07:48]

  • Markets dip, oil prices surge, but the U.S. is in a better position now due to increased domestic production and new transport options.

    “The US is pumping a lot more oil than it ever has before. It pumps more oil than any other country, including Saudi Arabia…” — Evan Halper [06:45]

• Inflation outlook:
  • Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan Chase) expects only modest consumer impact if strait reopens soon:

    “This right now will increase gas prices a little bit. And again, if it’s not prolonged, there’s not going to be a major inflationary hit.” — Jamie Dimon [07:20]

4. Diplomatic Fallout and U.S.-Europe Tensions

• Welcomed and snubbed allies:
  • Trump warmly greets Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Mears for his support.
  • Tensions with Spain after it denies use of bases; Trump considers trade cut-off:

    “Spain has been terrible. In fact, I told Scott [Treasury Secretary] to cut off all dealings with Spain.” — Trump [09:01]

  • Frustration with UK’s Keir Starmer for cautious involvement:

    “So we are very surprised this is not Winston Churchill that we’re dealing with.” — Trump [09:23]

  • Starmer stands by his decision:

    “It is my duty to judge what is in Britain’s national interest. That is what I’ve done and I stand by it.” — PM Keir Starmer [10:01]

• Divided Europe:
  • France, Spain, and others criticize the U.S. intervention; NATO leadership and Germany back Trump.
  • Mark Rutte (NATO):

    “I really commend what is happening here. Taking out Khamenei, but also taking out the ballistic missile program in Iran. This is crucial.” [11:01]

• European vulnerability:
  • European nations brace for spillover (drone attacks on Cyprus base); energy supplies at risk.
  • Ukrainian President Zelensky warns allies’ resources will be stretched, affecting ongoing defenses against Russia.

---

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On strategy escalation:

  “There have been some attacks on tankers already. The shipping traffic has all but stopped going through that strait, and it’s caused a major disruption to the world’s oil supply and also its natural gas supply.” — Evan Halper [06:03]

• On possible inflation:

  “I think there’s some risk there’s more inflation than people think, and that could be like a skunk in a party if that ever happens… but if it’s not prolonged, there’s not going to be a major inflationary hit.” — Jamie Dimon [07:20]

• On European unity:

  “One can be against a hateful regime while at the same time be against, quote, an unjustified, dangerous military intervention.” — Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez [10:54]

• On the difficulty of securing the strait:

  “The US has the military power to take control of this strait… but any terrorist, any military brigade with a rocket launcher can just target that at a tanker… it sounds easier than it actually is.” — Evan Halper [07:48]

---

Other Stories Briefly Covered

(Skip to [11:25] for transition to unrelated news)

• Father convicted for arming son in Georgia school shooting.
• Top Labor Department officials step down amid misconduct investigation.
• Dinosaur skeleton “Tre” to fetch millions at auction; fossils seen as trendy investments.

---

Conclusion

This episode provides timely, in-depth coverage of the volatile Middle East conflict and its potentially immense consequences for global energy supplies. The show skillfully weaves together military updates, economic analysis, and diplomatic intrigue, spotlighting just how quickly regional warfare can turn into a worldwide crisis felt at the gas pump and in the halls of power from Washington to Brussels.

---

For deeper reading, consult the Apple News app for full articles from the show's sources.

Transcript

[A]

Good morning. The war that began in Iran has spread throughout the Gulf. We'll bring you up to speed.

[B]

Meanwhile, Trump welcomes one European leader to the White House, then threatens to cut off trade with another. And the Washington Post explains how the closure of one narrow shipping route could turn the conflict into a global energy crisis.

[C]

Ultimately, if this conflict is not resolved soon and the strait is not secured, it'll have major pressures up pressures on oil prices.

[B]

It's Wednesday, March 4th. I'm Cecilia Ley.

[A]

And I'm Gideon Resnick. This is Apple News. Today, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced a significant strike during a briefing this morning.

[D]

An American submarine sunk an Iranian warship that thought it was safe in international waters. Instead, it was sunk by a torpedo. Quiet death, the first sinking of an enemy ship by a torpedo since World War II.

[A]

That announcement came shortly after Turkey's defense minister said that NATO air and missile defenses had shot down a ballistic missile fired from Iran. Though the intended target of it was not immediately clear, the intensity of strikes within Iran itself delayed the mourning ceremony for Iran's supreme leader, the Associated Press reported. As the fast moving conflict continues to widen, you can find more of latest in the Apple news app. Here's Cecilia with more news.

[B]

Last night, Israel began what it described as a new broad wave of attacks on Iran. Their strikes yesterday targeted infrastructure and hit the leadership's compound. In total, the US said it had struck nearly 2,000 targets so far. And an Iranian based humanitarian group says the death toll there stands at nearly 800. Crowds gathered for funerals held for the people killed in a strike that hit a girls school in Southern ir. State TV showed hundreds of mourners carrying small coffins draped with the flag of the Islamic Republic. Speaking to reporters yesterday, Trump suggested that the attacks over the past few days had effectively neutralized the regime's army.

[E]

Have no navy, it's been knocked out. They have no air force that's been knocked out. They have no air detection that's been knocked out. Their radar has been knocked out. And just about everything's been knocked out.

[B]

Even so, Iran appears to be moving forward with its strategy to focus attacks in neighboring territories. Last night, Iran hit a US Base in Qatar, the largest US Base in the Middle East. Though no casualties were reported, Iran has dispatched around 400 missiles and 800 drones in the past two days, the majority of which have been intercepted. Drones hit the US Consulate in Dubai yesterday. And the Washington Post reported a suspected drone attack on the CIA station at the US Embassy in Saudi Arabia. Neither appear to leave casualties, but the strikes have forced embassies to close indefinitely, leading to a frantic rush to exit the region. Yesterday, the State Department said that more than 9,000Americans had been evacuated so far. Meanwhile, the Trump administration's case for the war faces growing scrutiny. On Monday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio had suggested the US Preemptively attacked Iran in anticipation of a unilateral Israeli strike. But yesterday he attempted to downplay those comments, saying that it was Trump's call. Independent of any potential Israeli action, the

[D]

president of the United States made a decision. This is intolerable. Iran cannot have these missiles, cannot have these drones, cannot threaten the world, the president said. This is the weakest they've ever been. Hit them now, a year from now, a year and a half from now, no one will be able to touch them and they'll be able to do whatever they want.

[B]

Senators had a closed door briefing with White House officials on Tuesday. Democrat Chris Murphy emerged from the briefing frustrated with what he'd heard.

[D]

They told us in there that this is an open ended operation that hasn't even really started in earnest yet. There will be more Americans killed. They refused to take off the table the insertion of ground troops. This is going to make the operation in Libya look like child's play. There is no question this is war.

[B]

Trump officials told reporters yesterday that there has been no contact, direct or back channel with the regime since the strikes began. While the fighting is currently contained in the Gulf and Middle east, the economic consequences of the war are starting to feel. Global stocks have dipped in recent days as oil prices have climbed. Trump conceded as much at the White House yesterday.

[E]

I do what I have never had more compliments on something I did, people felt it's something that had to be done. So if we have a little high oil prices for a little while, but as soon as this ends, those prices are going to drop, I believe lower than even before.

[B]

A major driver of concern for traders is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage that connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. Evan Halper, business reporter with the Washington Post, explained why it was such an important route.

[C]

The Strait of Hormuz is a choke point. It's about 30 miles wide and about a fifth of the world's oil supply goes through it. It's where tankers ship through and Iran has control over it at the moment. And they have warned basically all tankers that they could be targeted if they continue shipping oil through it.

[B]

A prolonged stoppage would send the energy prices through the roof for consumers. Whether or not that Happens hinges on how long the fighting continues.

[C]

There have been some attacks on tankers already. The shipping traffic has all but stopped going through that strait, and it's caused a major disruption to the world's oil supply and also its natural gas supply. So if the strait does not open up soon, within the next few weeks, it'll have a major impact on oil prices.

[B]

Yesterday, Trump has said that if necessary, the US Navy would begin escorting ships as soon as possible. If trade doesn't start moving again soon, it could harm exports and diminish storage capacity for oil producers. While this could dent Trump's ambitions to bring down inflation, Halper notes that the US Is in a relatively stable position in at least for now, when something

[C]

like this would happen, the price of oil would spike really fast. Now we're in a different era. You're seeing the US Is pumping a lot more oil than it ever has before. It pumps more oil than any other country, including Saudi Arabia, and so that eases some of the pressures on the supply. There have also been advancements in technology, new transportation networks for shipping oil, which allow for alternatives.

[B]

As for broader inflation, the head of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, told CNBC on Monday the impact on consumer would likely be limited. If the conflict doesn't last long, I

[D]

think there's some risk there's more inflation than people think, and that could be like a skunk in a party if that ever happens. Hopefully it doesn't happen and no one actually knows, but this right now will increase gas prices a little bit. And again, if it's not prolonged, there's not going to be a major inflationary hit.

[B]

It's not clear when US Support might reach the strait, but shipping sources told Reuters that it may not be enough and that as long as the fighting continued, traders would be nervous about using the route.

[C]

The US has the military power to take control of this strait, and they're saying that ultimately they'll take whatever action needs to be taken to secure that passage. However, you're talking about thousands of ships going through the strait, it's still a hard area to secure. Any terrorist, any military brigade with a rocket launcher can just target that at a tanker. So I guess the question is, how long will it take the US to secure this? It sounds easier than it actually is.

[B]

Trump gave a warm welcome to German Chancellor Friedrich Mears at the White House yesterday, thanking the leader for his support of the war in Iran. He also used the meeting as an opportunity to lash out at other European countries he felt had not lined up behind the intensifying military action. First, Trump threatened Spain. The US had been forced to relocate aircrafts after the Spanish prime minister denied US Military use of their bases to attack Iran. Trump said he's asked his Treasury Secretary, Scott Besant, to look into a trade embargo without providing any details of how that might work.

[E]

Spain has been terrible. In fact, I told Scott to cut off all dealings with Spain.

[B]

Then he turned to the UK and its prime minister, Keir Starmer. The US Wanted to use British military bases for their initial strikes, but Starmer refused, only later giving permission for limited and defensive use.

[E]

It's taken three, four days for us to work out where we can land there. It would have been much more convenient landing there as opposed to flying many extra hours. So we are very surprised this is not Winston Churchill that we're dealing with.

[B]

The UK Was careful to avoid explicit support for the strikes, and on Monday, Starmer defended his decision to reject the US request in Parliament.

[F]

President Trump has expressed his disagreement with

[B]

our decision not to get involved in

[F]

the initial strikes, but it is my duty to judge what is in Britain's national interest.

[B]

That is what I've done and I stand by it. Although European leaders have broadly attributed ultimate responsibility to Iran, they've struggled to present a unified stance following the attacks. French President Emmanuel Macron described Trump's actions as outside of international law last night, while Spain's leader, Pedro Sanchez, was more critical, saying that one can be against a hateful regime while at the same time be against, quote, an unjustified, dangerous military intervention. On the other hand, German Chancellor Mears was Trump's guest of honor. He said that now was not the time to lecture the US about international war, adding that legal appeals to Iran had, quote, achieved little over the years. Support also came from NATO's Secretary General and former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, a current favorite of Trump's. He was the most enthusiastic, giving Trump his full backing when he appeared on Fox over the weekend.

[F]

I really commend what is happening here. Taking out Khamenei, but also taking out the ballistic missile program in Iran. This is crucial. And what I see in Europe, I spoke with all the key European leaders over the weekend, is widespread support for what the President is doing and also making sure that when it comes to logistics access, defending key US interests in Europe and in the region, the Europeans are really stepping up.

[B]

No matter how European countries feel about the war, they are unlikely to escape its impact. France and the UK have sent military backup to Cyprus after an Iran made drone struck a British base. Europe could also be heavily affected if an energy crisis spirals out of control. And yesterday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that a prolonged war could distract allies and deplete stocks of missile defenses in its fight against Russia. And finally, a few other stories were following. On Tuesday, a father whose teenage son carried out the deadliest school shooting in Georgia state history was convicted of second degree murder and other charges. The jury held him criminally responsible for giving his son the rifle that was allegedly used in the incident and for ignoring red flags leading up to the shooting, which resulted in the deaths of two students and two teachers. Colin gray bought his 14 year old son the firearm, saying he had hoped it would bring them closer. Prosecutors say Gray didn't take the gun away from his son, even though there were signs that he suffered from mental health problems. He also reportedly knew his son had become infatuated with other school shooters. Gray took the stand in his own defense, saying he had no reason to suspect his son was planning a mass shooting. He could spend the rest of his life in prison. The younger Gray has yet to face trial for the shooting. Two top aides to Labor Secretary Laurie Chavez Darimer are stepping down as an internal misconduct investigation at the Department of Labor continues. DLL Chief of Staff Jihan Han and Deputy Chief Rebecca Wright are accused of bullying staff members and trying to silence critics. According to Politico. Chavez Darimer is under investigation for allegedly having those aides schedule official events to facilitate her personal travel. And there are also allegations that she drank on the job and carried on an extramarital affair with a staffer. And the New York Times reports she stands accused of steering grants to favored political operatives. The Trump administration initially stood by Chavez Darimer, but political reports that may be changing and that one White House advisor says the administration lost patience with Chavez Darimer's desire to keep her top aides on staff. And finally, it's never been a hotter time to own a dinosaur. A 66 million year old Triceratops skeleton called Tre will hit the auction block later this month and could fetch up to $5.5 million. The skeleton was discovered in Lusk, Wyoming in 1993 and was on display at the Wyoming Dinosaur center until 2023. The auction house facilitating the sale says fossils are increasingly popular investments. In 2024, a stegosaurus called Apex sold for a record breaking $44.6 million. Trends seem to be moving away from traditional things like Old Masters paintings into objects that have cultural resonance. A paleontologist who spoke to the Associated Press, said, that's why Trey is special, because it spent so much time on display. It has a connection to the people and no doubt inspired at least some young children to pursue paleontology. You can find all these stories more in the Apple News app. And if you're already listening in the News app right now, we've got a narrated article coming up next. New Scientist reports on how our perception of sleep can impact whether we feel groggy and moody the next day, and how changing your mindset can actually help you feel more rested. If you're listening in the podcast app, follow Apple News narrated to find that story. And I'll be back with the news tomorrow. Sam.