In a stunning comeback, Trump won. How did we get here?

Summary

Apple News Today: "In a Stunning Comeback, Trump Won. How Did We Get Here?"

Release Date: November 6, 2024
Host: Sumita Basu
Guest: Gideon Resnick

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Election Night Overview

Sumita Basu opens the episode by announcing the historic election results: Donald Trump’s victory, marking his return as the 47th President of the United States. The win is characterized by several unprecedented milestones:

• Non-Consecutive Terms: Trump becomes the first president since the 1800s to serve non-consecutive terms.
• Age and Legal Status: At 78, he becomes the oldest person elected president and the first convicted felon to hold the nation’s highest office.

The victory was confirmed early in the morning, with Fox News and the Associated Press (AP) declaring Trump the winner after crucial battleground states shifted in his favor.

Notable Quote:

Donald Trump [00:21]: "The Fox News decision desk can now officially project that Donald Trump will become the 47th president of the United States."

Breaking Down the Victory

Gideon Resnick analyzes the unexpected sweep, emphasizing Trump’s widespread appeal across various demographics and regions.

• State Performance: Trump outperformed in nearly every state, including traditionally solidly blue states. Notable gains include Florida, where his margin increased from 3% in 2020 to over 10%.

• Demographic Shifts:

  • Latino Voters: Significant gains, with Trump winning areas like Osceola County in Florida and Star County in Texas, a historically Democratic stronghold since 1896.
  • Young Voters: Exit polls indicate a shift with younger voters showing increased support for Trump, partly influenced by his presence on social media and podcasts.
    • Savannah Sellers [04:48]: "I heard so many young people say to me in a positive way, also, he is a meme. His things travel far. It's objectively funny..."

Notable Quote:

Donald Trump [03:10]: "This campaign has been so historic in so many ways. We've built the biggest, the broadest, the most unified coalition."

Gender Dynamics in the Election

The gender gap was a focal point of discussion, with women slightly favoring Harris but not to the extent Democrats hoped.

• Exit Polls:

  • Women: 54% supported Harris, down from Biden’s 57% in 2020.
  • Men: 44% supported Trump, maintaining a similar trend to previous elections.

• State-Level Trends: The Washington Post highlighted that in battleground states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, women did not turn out as strongly for Harris as expected.

Voter Motivation and Sentiment

Resnick delves into the underlying reasons behind Trump’s resurgence:

• National Sentiment: A pervasive belief among Americans that the country is headed in the wrong direction, with 74% expressing this view in a recent ABC Ipsos poll.

• Economic Concerns: Despite positive economic indicators (2% inflation, strong job figures), many voters perceive the economy as stagnant or declining, a sentiment Trump capitalized on effectively.

Notable Quote:

David Urban [08:15]: "Over half of America feels very strongly about the things that Donald Trump feels strongly about... Maybe the Democratic Party needs to come back to the center."

Abortion and Ballot Measures

Abortion rights were a significant issue, with mixed outcomes across states:

• Failed Initiatives:

  • Florida: Pro-abortion measure fell just short of the 60% threshold.
  • South Dakota: Rejected a ballot measure to protect abortion access.

• Victories:

  • Colorado, Maryland, New York, Arizona, and Missouri: Voters passed measures to protect abortion rights, with Missouri notably undoing one of the most restrictive bans.

This split indicates that voters were willing to support Trump while also advocating for abortion rights, complicating the narrative on voter motivations.

Congressional Shifts

The Republican Party not only secured the presidency but also took control of the Senate, achieving two critical pickups:

• West Virginia: Jim Justice won the seat previously held by Democrat-turned-Independent Joe Manchin.

• Ohio: Bernie Moreno defeated Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown in a record-breaking, highly contested race.

Sherrod Brown’s Concession Speech Highlights:

Unnamed Speaker [10:44]: "We believe that all work has dignity... This is a disappointment, but is not a failure."

The future of the House remains uncertain, with key races in California potentially influencing the overall outcome.

Looking Ahead: Trump’s Potential Second Term

Resnick speculates on the implications of a second Trump term:

• Senate Control: Enables Trump to influence Supreme Court appointments and passes his agenda with greater ease.

• Policy Proposals:

  • Immigration: Initiating mass deportations and imposing strict penalties.

    Donald Trump [11:47]: "But if they come back into our country, it's an automatic 10 years in jail..."

  • Trade: Imposing a 25% tariff on Mexican goods if border security demands are unmet.

  • Political Appointments: Bringing figures like Elon Musk and RFK Jr. into significant government roles.

Security and Governance Concerns: Trump’s rhetoric on handling political adversaries and using military force raised alarms among analysts about potential authoritarian tendencies.

Post-Election Legal Landscape

The episode also covers Trump’s ongoing legal challenges:

• New York Case: Trump faces sentencing on November 26th, becoming the first convicted felon elected president.

• Georgia Case: Election interference charges are pending until December.

• Federal Cases: Involving election interference and misuse of classified documents, overseen by Special Counsel Jack Smith, who is likely to be dismissed by the incoming administration.

• Civil Suits: Trump faces multiple civil cases related to January 6th and a defamation suit from the Central Park 5.

Election Day Safety and Firsts

Sumita Basu highlights safety concerns and historic firsts:

• Security Incidents:

  • Capitol Visitor Center Arrest: A man with a torch and flare gun was apprehended.
  • Bomb Threats: Dozens of polling locations in swing states received false bomb threats, leading to evacuations and extended voting hours. These threats, linked to Russian email domains, did not significantly impact voter turnout.

• Historic Milestones:

  • Senate Diversity: Two Black women—Lisa Blunt Rochester (Delaware) and Angela Brooks (Maryland)—serve as senators simultaneously.

  • First Openly Transgender Congress Member: Sarah McBride’s election in Delaware.

  • First Korean American Senator: Andy Kim’s victory in New Jersey, replacing Bob Menendez.

Future Outlook and Conclusions

Looking forward, the episode anticipates extensive analysis and reflection on the election results, focusing on:

• Democratic Party's Strategy: Addressing the loss and re-evaluating campaign strategies to regain competitiveness.

• Certification Process: Vice President Kamala Harris faces the critical task of certifying the election results on January 6th, 2025.

• National Stability: With increased polarization, the potential for political violence looms, as highlighted by the first exit polls projecting fears of election-related violence.

Final Insights: The election underscores a transformation in American politics, with Trump’s brand proving resilient and more influential than ever. The Democratic Party faces a need to reconnect with voters and address pervasive discontent to reclaim the White House and legislative seats in future elections.

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For more detailed coverage and ongoing updates, listeners can access the full transcript and additional stories on the Apple News app.

Transcript

[Sumita Basu]

Good morning. It's Wednesday, November 6th. I'm Sumita Basu. This is Apple News Today. On today's show, America reelects Donald Trump. In the very early hours of the morning, Fox News called the race for Donald Trump.

[Donald Trump]

The Fox News decision desk can now officially project that Donald Trump will become the 47th president of the United States.

[Gideon Resnick]

Nicole?

[Sumita Basu]

The president's comeback will be complete with a win in Wisconsin, a state that he narrowly lost four years ago. And at about 6am Eastern, the AP officially called it two Trump defeats Kamala Harris. This means that Trump will become the first president to serve non consecutive terms since the 1800s, the oldest person to become president and the first convicted felon to be elected to the nation's highest office. We all went into this election knowing it would be extremely close and it would come down to seven battleground states. Pretty early in the night, it seemed clear that Harris was not getting the turnout she needed. The first battleground state to be called was North Carolina for Trump, then Georgia for Trump. At that point, Harris was relying on all three blue wall states. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Then early Wednesday morning, the AP called Pennsylvania for Trump and Wisconsin a few hours later, putting him over the 270 electoral votes win. Just moments after Pennsylvania was called, when it was mathematically all but certain Trump would win, he addressed his supporters from West Palm Beach, Florida, where he was accompanied by his wife Melania and their family.

[Donald Trump]

We made history for a reason tonight, and the reason is going to be just that. We overcame obstacles that nobody thought possible. And it is now clear that we've achieved the most incredible political thing. Look what happened. Is this crazy?

[Sumita Basu]

It was a huge night for Republicans. They not only defied skeptics who firmly believed Harris had the momentum on her side, but they also secured control of the Senate. With me now to break down everything that we know and how we got here is my colleague, Gideon Resnick. Hey, Gideon.

[Gideon Resnick]

Hey, Shmita.

[Sumita Basu]

So, Gideon, it has been a long night. Stunning results we are seeing. It was a real sweep, just not what was predicted. How did this happen?

[Gideon Resnick]

I think, simply put, Trump outperformed everywhere. You know, there are these maps. The New York Times has 1 of counties across the United States and their Shift politically since 2020, marked by these little red arrows, and it's a sea of red, meaning Trump has improved on nearly every margin in every state since 2020. That includes rural areas, urban areas, swing states, and then even solidly blue states. And he's also made red states even more red. Perhaps the most extreme example is Florida. So in 2020, Trump won by just over three points there. Now he's winning by more than 10 points in Florida as we speak. And Trump spoke directly to this dynamic in his victory speech last night.

[Donald Trump]

This campaign has been so historic in so many ways. We've built the biggest, the broadest, the most unified coalition. They've never seen anything like it in all of American history. They've never seen any young and old, men and women, rural and urban. And we had them all helping us tonight.

[Sumita Basu]

Right, so he mentions his coalition there. Let's dig into some of the demographic trends that he just mentioned. I know that it's too early to say definitively, but what do we know so far?

[Gideon Resnick]

Yeah, I mean, the early indications are that Trump has performed slightly better with black men and far better with Latino voters. So according to an NBC News exit poll, Trump made double digit gains with Latino voters. Again, going back and looking at Florida, he was able to win Osceola County. That's a county that has a large Puerto Rican population, that Biden won by almost 14 points. I mean, just these really big swings. Trump was also able to win in Miami Dade county, which Hillary Clinton in 2016 won by almost 30 points. And one more incredible example of this dynamic, Star County, Texas, a border county that is heavily Latino. It's voted for a Democrat in every presidential election since 1896. And last night, it voted for Trump.

[Sumita Basu]

Wow. And how about with young voters? How did they turn out?

[Gideon Resnick]

Yeah. In an AP survey of voters, it appears that about half of voters under 30 supported Harris, compared to about 6 in 10 last time for Biden. And then about 4 in 10 went for Trump compared to about 3 in 10 last time. NBC News correspondent Savannah Sellers has been closely following this demographic, and she says that a lot of Trump's success here can be attributed to social media and podcasts.

[Savannah Sellers]

I heard so many young people say to me in a positive way, also, he is a meme. His things travel far. It's objectively funny when you see this information. So many young people, therefore, on these apps were served content straight from and straight about the former president. And we are hearing so much right now. I'm hearing that in lines in Arizona. It was because I heard him on a podcast.

[Sumita Basu]

Okay, and how about women? We have heard so much about this year's historic gender gap. How did that pan out?

[Gideon Resnick]

Looking at that split between men and women, exit polls indicate that women broke for Harris, but not by the margins that her campaign had hoped. So far, it seems that she is underperforming compared to Biden in 2020, who got about 57% of women and 45% of men. National exit poll so indicate that around 54% of women went for Harris and 44% of men, according to the Washington Post. And that pattern really held up in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And in North Carolina, the Washington Post reports that slightly more men supported Trump than women supported Harris. We should caveat all of this, Shamita, that it's going to take a few weeks for us to have a super clear sense of these demographic breakdowns. But for now, we have these exit polls and voter surveys to give us a sense of what's going on here.

[Sumita Basu]

Sure. And I'm sure that there will be much written about the role that gender played in this election. I mean, to state the obvious, Trump defeated a woman candidate in 2016, lost to a man in 2020, and beat a woman again in 2024. What do we know about what motivated people to come out and vote for Trump this year?

[Gideon Resnick]

It's far too early to draw sweeping conclusions, but I think one takeaway for listeners should be that this election shows that this is not a fluke. Trump is not a fluke. In fact, I think you could look at these results and say he's more popular than he's ever been. And that is despite the fact that he is a convicted criminal, in fact is due to be sentenced in New York in just three weeks from now. That's despite what happened on January6. That's despite multiple sexual assault allegations against him, despite many national security advisers, military leaders, former staff are saying, do not vote for this man. He is a threat to our country. So I think it's going to take some time for all of us to understand how we got to this moment. Now, there are some signs in polling that point to why people voted the way they did. One significant indicator is that so many people in this country, in both parties, feel that the country is headed in the wrong direction. Since 1980, that question and how people answer it has been a predictor of which party would take the White House. And when that question was asked in a recent ABC Ipsos poll released this past weekend, 74% of people said they thought we were headed in the wrong direction. So that alone, I think, is a fairly good sign that Democrats would have a hard time holding onto the White House. We do also know that the economy was a top issue for voters, as it has been for a while. Trump painted a picture of our economy in crisis under President Biden, even though the data doesn't quite back that up. Inflation is around 2%, down from this time a year ago. Jobs figures have exceeded expectations and consumer spending seems to be strong. But of course, we lived through a pandemic that sparked inflation around the globe. And things are more expensive today than they were when Trump was president. And that feeling, the notion that I am worse off today than I was 4 years ago seems to be reflected in these results. Here's how David Urban, a former senior adviser to Donald Trump's first presidential campaign, explained it to cnn.

[David Urban]

Over half of America feels very strongly about the things that Donald Trump feels strongly about. Right? A secure border, the economy, crime. It might not be a perfect messenger, but the message resonates. Democracy is a luxury. When you can't pay your bills, there's going to be a reckoning in America that people have to sit back and say, maybe some of these things Trump's espousing are not crazy. Maybe he's right.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Right.

[David Urban]

Maybe the Democratic Party needs to come back to the center. They want to be competitive again.

[Sumita Basu]

Now, let's talk about abortion. It was expected to boost turnout for Democrats. It was on the ballot in 10 states. What do we know about how this issue played out overall?

[Gideon Resnick]

Let's go back to Florida. Florida is a state that reports its results early, so we're relying on it a lot. There was a high bar there for the pro abortion access measure to pass. It needed 60% of the votes and it fell just short. This leaves Florida's six week ban, which took effect in May, in place in the state. Then voters in South Dakota also rejected a ballot measure that would have protected abortion access. These are the first abortion rights ballot measures to fail since the Supreme Court overturned Roe V. Wade in 2022. But pro abortion rights measures did get some victories places, including Colorado, Maryland, New York, Arizona, a city in Texas, and notably Missouri where voters cleared the way to undo one of the country's most restrictive abortion bans, making Missouri the first state where a vote will undo a ban that is already in place. So we can't say for certain how or if it boosted turnout. But we can say that some voters both voted for Trump for president and also for measures that would protect abortion.

[Sumita Basu]

Okay, let's quickly touch on Congress. We know that Republicans won control of the Senate. What's happened there and what can we say at this point about the House, if anything?

[Gideon Resnick]

Yeah, so, I mean, Republicans only needed two pickups in the Senate and they got them fairly easily. The first coming in West Virginia, where businessman Jim justice won his race. He's inheriting the seat that had been held for a long time by the Democrat turned independent Senator Joe Manchin. Justice, who inherited a coal mining business from his father, is going to be among the wealthiest members of Congress. And then Republicans got another pickup in Ohio, where the businessman Bernie Moreno defeated Democratic incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown. This was one of the most fiercely fought races in the country. In fact, it was the most expensive non presidential race on record. And it's a big loss for Democrats who really valued Sherrod Brown, considered a champion of the working class. Here is some of Brown's concession speech from last night.

[Unnamed Speaker]

We believe that all work has dignity. We always will. We believe in the power of people over corporate special interests. We always will. We believe if you love this country, you fight for the people who make it work. We always will. This is a disappointment, but is not a failure.

[Gideon Resnick]

If we look at the House, that's more of an open question at the moment. And it could be for some time if the California House races end up being determinative to the ultimate outcome there.

[Sumita Basu]

Okay, so Gideon, looking ahead, what can we expect to happen next and what do we know about what a second Trump term might look like?

[Gideon Resnick]

Like, well, broadly speaking, Trump will be stepping into a White House more experienced than last time with more experienced people likely around him. He will have control over the Senate, which means the potential of additional Supreme Court justice appointments. And he's already laid out a lot of his plans for his next term among them. As a quick reminder to listeners, Trump has said that he would begin mass deportations, which would include workplace raids using the US Military.

[Donald Trump]

But if they come back into our country, it's an automatic 10 years in jail with no possibility of parole. 10 years. And if that doesn't work, it'll be 20 years. And if that doesn't work, I guess it's going to be the death penalty, Right?

[Gideon Resnick]

Trump has also said that he would immediately impose a 25% tariff on Mexican goods if it didn't close the border. And he's talked about broadly taking revenge on political enemies.

[Donald Trump]

We have some very bad people. We have some sick people, radical left lunatics. And I think they're the, and it should be very easily handled by, if necessary, by National Guard or if really necessary, by the military because they can't let that happen.

[Gideon Resnick]

And he has said that he would put Elon Musk into a government position and put RFK Jr into a prominent health role in charge of women's health among other things. As for what all of this means for the future of our country and its two main political parties, there is going to be a lot of hand wringing over how and why this all happened, over who in the Democratic Party is to blame. But the party is going to have to address the fact that they lost two elections to Trump and that in many ways he appears to be more popular than ever and has fundamentally changed our politics along the way. As for Kamala Harris, she will soon be in the remarkable position as sitting vice president of having to certify these election results in just a weeks.

[Sumita Basu]

That's right. In fact, on January 6th of 2025. Gideon Resnick, thank you so much.

[Gideon Resnick]

Yeah, thank you.

[Sumita Basu]

Before we let you go, a few other politics storylines we're following in the Apple News app, starting with what happens next to Trump's various legal cases. As we mentioned earlier, he is now the first convicted felon to be elected president. And he's set to be sentenced in that New York criminal case less than three weeks from now on November 26th. The other state level case in Georgia that involves election interference charges is on hold until December. And then there are Trump's federal cases involving charges of election interference and misuse of classified documents. Both of those cases involve special counsel Jack Smith. NBC News says it's almost certain Trump will appoint a new head to the Justice Department who will likely fire Smith and close the case. Trump is also facing eight pending civil suits related to January 6 and a defamation suit filed by the Central Park 5. Next to safety concerns on Election Day, authorities arrested a man at the Capitol visitor center in D.C. who police say smelled like fuel and was trying to enter with a torch and a flare gun. As for voting centers, the day went smoothly overall, but there were bomb threats at dozens of polling locations in swing states across the country. Officials did not find any bombs and no one was hurt. But these threats did result in evacuations at some polling sites and some polling locations extended their voting hours. The FBI says many of the threats are connected to emails with Russian domains. CNN reports these incidents didn't seem to impact voting. And finally, to some firsts, for the first time, there will be two black women serving as senators at the same time. Lisa Blunt Rochester of Delaware and Angela, also Brooks of Maryland. Also In Delaware, Sarah McBride has become the first openly transgender person elected to Congress. And Representative Andy Kim has become the first Korean American elected to the Senate, replacing disgraced New Jersey Senator Bob Menendez. You can find all these stories and more in the Apple News app And if you're already listening in the news app right now, we've got a narrated article coming up next from the New Yorker. This is the first time in the history of exit polling that voters were asked about whether they think the outcome of the U.S. presidential election could lead to violence. About 7 in 10 voters, a majority on both sides, said yes. And some Americans have been preparing for this possibility by joining survivalist communities, building bunkers, and more. If you're listening in the podcast app, follow Apple News Narrated to find that story. And I'll be back with the news tomorrow.